If Trump wins decisively in this election, gold will drop. It should drop. If Trump wins decisively in this election, gold will be higher three years from now. If the election is uncertain, you know, on election night, then you have to be out of your mind to not be long cold. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. Today’s Market Rundown, we’re going to talk about gold and silver and the potential moves for an election and the drivers for it.

As the pseudo headline implies, Trump landslide means gold lower. You don’t want Trump to win by much if you are long gold for the election. You want Trump to win by much if you are long gold for the next four years, but not for the election night. So we’re going to get into that, describing the uncertainties around the election and if they’re increasing or decreasing. So let’s start with the markets. The dollar is down almost two at 104.26. Ten-year yields are 423 down two. The S&P 500 is down five, roughly.

At 58.37, the VIX is 1971 up 38. Gold is 27.80, up six and change. Was up about 11. Silver is 3406, down 39. Copper is 432, down two. Gold, silver, slightly higher. WTI 68.56. Wow. Up 47, natural gas is 245, down three. Bitcoin is a little bit of a healthy give back, you can call it. Down 692, it’s 72,000 and change, hovering near all-time highs. Ethereum is 2660, well off all-time highs, up 24. Bladium down 27, 1182. Platinum down 19 at 1,000. And grains are mixed this time. It’s soy strong. Up three cents at 984.

Corn 406 down a penny and a half and wheat is down significantly six cents. I guess people do a soy wheat spread out there. There’s a planting thing for that, I’m sure. Okay, so where was I? Today, the election and gold were coming up to it, so we may as well talk about it, right? All right. There’s the front page. Yesterday, the IMF blows up bricks and bridge. That’s a significant story, and I was going to put out a comment on it yesterday, but I’ll put it out, another comment, a private comment for premium yesterday, and I’ll put it out later on today.

But all the topics have pretty much been touched on here, but I’ll put them all in one place for everyone. All right. What would happen if the election result were delayed? That picture there, that is a story that we did in December. We’ll talk about that in a second. Since early October, financial markets have increasingly been pricing both victory for Donald Trump in the November 5th US presidential election and also a clean sweep of both houses of Congress for the Republican Party. Now, I am going to be quoting back and forth between a report that I have by Gavikow, which I’ll be citing here, intermixed with what I’m saying.

So it’s a very good report, and I’ll share more of that with you. It’s about the election itself. It spurred this. You may remember it was Trump was slightly losing, depending on whose poll you were looking at, and Trump was slightly winning. And now recently, it’s just gotten worse for Harris. It seems like the more that the more that she speaks, the worse that it gets, or put it this way, the the electioneering tactics are not working for the Democrats. Hartnett, Michael Hartnett of BOA has been handicapping a sweep, and he has, I believe, correctly handicapped that gridlock means Goldilocks.

So if Trump were to win, let’s assume that he’s winning for this conversation, but Republicans not to sweep, then you would have gridlock and spending would stay the same. You wouldn’t have tariffs passed that he discusses. You’d have something passed, but nothing like he’s discussing. However, a sweep, whether it be by Republicans or Democrats, is inflationary. If it’s Democrats who win, well, they’re going to spend the way they have been spending and probably some more probably end up doing MMT by the end of the week. If the Republicans win in a sweep, you’re going to have spending on what Republicans is all politicians spend.

And once Republicans have figured out that spending is good for them, they do it too. All right. So a sweep in either way is bullish for inflation. Okay. That’s the new consensus, and it’s probably pretty accurate. Now, but as people are talking about it more and more, I think they’re thinking about the alternatives less and less. And the Gavikov report, if I’m saying the name right, is touching on that. So as I’m quoting from the report now, as expectations have grown that a new Trump administration will therefore have a free hand to pursue inflationary pro growth policies, right? That’s the difference.

Republicans are inflationary and pro growth. Democrats are inflationary and redistribution of wealth, including tax cuts, increased deficit spending, and deregulation. US stocks and the US dollar have risen and so have US bond yields, right? The market is discounting that. It’s definitely discounting that. It’s not unreasonable to consider the risks if those things did not happen. For example, if Harris won or if Trump won with a split of Congress, these are the two things being talked about mostly by market participants. What is seemingly going to happen and what if it does happen? Either way, both of those results and uncertainty, meaning if Harris wins and it’s split, if Trump wins and it’s split, they end uncertainty.

Both of those results are bearish for gold on election night. Now, there is only one scenario in which uncertainty increases and that is not as unlikely as you’d think. We have said several times elections are supposed to bring certainty. This year, that is not likely to happen. So for example, in 2000, you had Gore Bush, you had Trump and Biden in 2020, it’s getting worse. From MSA, Michael Oliver made a comment in December that I had that on the screen there for a second. He had a comment that I thought was relevant and the story was Trump versus Biden, the 2024 electoral landscape is ugly.

That’s this tab over here, sorry. I scrolled too fast. There is no outcome to the 2024 election that will lead to calm social order, calm politics, calm in the streets and therefore normal markets in the wake. Now, he said this back in 23, so there is an outcome that will lead to those things and that’s Trump winning in a sweep or Harris winning in a sweep where there can be no doubt, but there’s going to be doubt. Now, speaking specifically for the reasons for the uncertainty, where’s this uncertainty that you’re talking about? Well, if Harrison wins, electoral fraud cases and similar challenges from Trump are likely.

So the miscounting of the votes, improper ballot collection, things like that, and it’s going to go state by state. If Trump wins, there’ll be a possible constitutional crisis or repeat of January 6th, which is somewhat likely. Constitutional crisis meaning, look, if you hire a billion lawyers, they’re going to look for something to argue about. They’re like, okay, Trump won. Maybe a felon shouldn’t be elected president. I mean, they’ll just do what they do. So that’s why, if you think about it, that’s why Trump wants to make it a slam dunk. He needs to win without a doubt.

He wants a mandate. And whether the Republicans win Congress or not is really not the point, I think, for him. He wants to win every state so that there’s no doubt. He really means it. All right. So imagine the mobilization now. Here’s an example I’m talking about. Six months ago, this is the legal side of it, in a leading indicator of rising risks of post-election market volatility, both to Biden, which was Biden then, and Trump campaigns have been beefing up their legal teams on the expectation of a prolonged bout of post-election legal mayhem.

There are more lawsuits filed already for this election than there have been in all the previous elections, after the election. Okay. So here’s some facts. What happens if there is a close call? Well, let’s go back to 2000. In 2000, it took five weeks and a Supreme Court ruling to settle the U.S. presidential election, this time with a close race expected in critical states and both sides unwilling to concede without certainty, the presidential or congressional results could be delayed for weeks, possibly months. Now, any prolonged uncertainty will lead to a near-term repricing of risk.

Stocks will drop. The dollar will weaken. Bonds should rally. They actually could weaken, but let’s leave that alone. Gold will rally. If delays extend into January, as they did in 2000, the bond market may feel a significant impact as the U.S. debt ceiling reactivates on January 2nd. So the bond market may gyrate a little bit, but remember, the U.S. debt ceiling has been suspended since September of 23. It’s going to reactivate on January 2nd of 24. So expect them to suspend it again if there’s uncertainty. That was in June, I think, of the suspension.

So without a deal and a clear election outcomes, right, number one, this is gavicle. New U.S. Treasury issuance would halt. There’d be no new treasuries. There’d be no funding of the government. Number two, draw down of cash reserves in a U.S. Treasury general account, a positive for treasuries would happen and that would deplete, that would weaken the dollar, right? It would, assuming no nation dumps our treasuries, but it will be a negative for the dollar. And it would be a cash crunch. We cannot afford those things this time. There are serious signs, this is another conversation, but there are serious signs that the repo market is stressing and that would be a sign that a bank or more than one bank is in trouble.

So imagine that happening with the election. So the market is already pricing a high probability of a Republican sweep. Market moves of this expectation proves correct, will likely be mild. That’s election optimism. In the event of any other outcome, there will be a re-pricing. And if Trump wins the White House, but the Democrats take at least one House of Congress, or if there is a delay with a protracted period of uncertainty about the election results, a violent reversal and equities will be possible. Now on the gold side, unless Trump wins without a doubt or Harris, there’s going to be uncertainty.

The Democrats aren’t going to take this line down. Anyway, what does certainty look like? Well, this is when Trump won in 2016. Certainty looks like this. Trump won, gold’s going to the moon. And then on the night, it was basically unchanged. And then for the next month or two, they sold it off. And by the way, then gold proceeded to be higher than that. That’s 1300 in 2016. In fact, gold did better under Trump than it did under Biden for the first like two and a half years. It was only until recently when, you know, Biden fell asleep, I guess that that gold really took off compared to it.

Okay, so that’s it. You want Trump to win. If Trump wins decisively in this election, gold will drop. It should drop. And if Trump wins decisively in this election, gold will be higher three years from now. If gold, if if the election is uncertain, you know, on election night, then you have to be out of your mind to not be long hold. And, you know, what will happen afterwards? Who knows? Especially with the other players involved. Anyway, moving on. News and analysis, gold, we trust put out their chart book. We’re looking at it right now.

And this year is a little different than last year’s in the sense that the charts are excellent. They’re, they’re, they’re clean without being too minimalist. But there’s some interesting markings this year, you know, some, some observations that I thought were, were very good. Like, for example, the ETFs versus the gold price, et cetera, et cetera. We’ll talk more about that tomorrow. Jeff Bezos, YA’s newspaper, one endorsed Kamala Harris charts, immigration trends, statue of liberty visits, kind of a good macro chart package. Tuesday, underpriced inflation, this is for founders and Bitcoin post-election, Bitcoin goes up post-election.

Think about that. If he’s, if he’s as pro as he says, and there’s the zero hedge edit of the BIS blow up blowing up the BRICS Enbridge. All right. Moving on politics, geopolitics. Last week, the 21st of October, we said, Israel cannot win a forefront war and look for it to end. Look for something to end. And today we’ve got endings on the table. First of all, uh, we’ve got, before we do Israel, we’ve got, uh, there are troops in North Korea that are now fighting or getting ready to fight in Russia.

It’s a world war. Just don’t call it that. Uh, Israeli chief of staff said, if Iran makes a mistake and launches missiles towards Israel, they will hit strongly the capabilities and places they excluded during their previous strike. Doesn’t sound like much to me. Israeli minister said the war with Hezbollah will be over by year end. Interesting. Hezbollah also said that they want to separate themselves from Hamas. I’m telling you, man, this is going to be the Reagan moment that Trump wants. The world wants Trump as president. In fact, by the time this is over, Biden will want Trump as president because they’re going to want to bring peace.

Remember the McCain Obama thing? We have to get along right now. The Democrats are starting to say, yeah, we may as well just throw in a towel on this because it could be chaos. Uh, uh, if we, if we don’t, but anyway, Israeli officials cited by access noted that Hezbollah is ready to distance itself from Hamas and Gaza. And the IDF is close to ending the ground operation in villages in Lebanon, that border with Israel. More peace breaking out. U.S. President Biden’s advisors are to visit Israel. Not Biden, his advisors are to visit Israel.

Ukraine and Russia talks about halting strikes on energy plants. That’s probably because the winter is coming. Okay. It almost feels like kabuki theater. All right. Data on deck. PC, NFP and employment today is retail and trade. Um, retail sales are, it’s hard to understand them. Everyone says we’re doing well. Then they say we’re having too much debt to do well and what have you. But, you know, we have some excerpts from the Gavaca report. It’s very good. And we re included the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, TS Lombard, uh, report from December.

I think it’s a, it’s a good review. Let’s take a look at the markets again. All right. Gold is up and silver is down. All right. So here we are. Hourly last night, gold rallies during Asian hours. Not surprising. Gold sideways during London, Europe hours and now gold lower. So gold lower going into the U S open. Well, I guess, I guess the play is you just do nothing. If you’re looking at the more you’re watching the tape and you see how it acts at nine o’clock, it’ll be bought at nine o’clock at nine 30, nine, nine o’clock, nine 30.

And if the market doesn’t go up at nine, nine 30, then that tells you there’s too many people who bought it last night. They need to puke it now. It’s a tactical play. It’s the way they do it. Silver. On the other hand, well, they’re selling silver to buy gold again. That’s what they do. And they’ll do that until they can’t do that anymore. Then they’ll cover their shorts and they won’t go up to the new highs again. Oil. What a disaster, right? Let me get rid of the bulge of bands for you guys.

What a disaster. No opinion. Bitcoin. Take a look at this. Gold 2.0. Forget about your opinion about Bitcoin itself. Look at that. What does that look like? That looks like the cup and handle that we had. Everything is the same formation now. You know, everything is, is the whole psychology of the world is following the same pattern. It’s fascinating. Anyway, people are buying Bitcoin again. It’s kind of like gold is giving permission to Bitcoin to rally. Sorry, kids. It’s the way I feel about it. I’m old. All right. I’m Vince. Have a great day.

Thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy brought to you today by Fortuna Mining, who just last week released their third quarter production numbers that came in at 110,820 gold equivalent ounces and leaves them on track to meet their production guidance range of 457,000 to 497,000 gold equivalent ounces on the year. Fortuna is now also 76% complete and on budget for their Ledera leach pad expansion project, which is on track to bring their costs down even further next year. And all while we are seeing the gold rally where we’ve seen record prices set throughout the year and certainly Fortuna in position to benefit from that.

End of note, Fortuna will be releasing their third quarter earnings on November 6th with a conference call at noon Eastern on November 7th. And we’ll look forward to having Jorge Ginoza, CEO of Fortuna Mining, join us on the show on the 7th as well. So thanks to Fortuna. Congratulations on their success at Sequela over the past year. And thank you for tuning in at home. Sure. Appreciate you being here and we will see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

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