The lowest CBO Es and P 500 volatility index and the highest US T bill rate since about 2007 may be a foundation for gold to head toward round number resistance of around $3,000 an ounce. Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals and financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning.

I’m Vince Lancy, and in today’s market rundown we will look at a new Bloomberg report that I think is very interesting and accurate in its assessment. That report is on gold and stocks and echoes the 2007 situation before the great financial crisis that’s also included in premium. We will look at the news. We’ll glance at the news. Not really a lot to talk about today, but first let’s check some prices.

The dollar is down 13 at 104 spot zero 910 year yields are up again. Two basis points at is 52. 33 up 15 handles the VIX is 1419 down 13. Gold is down $8 at $22. 91. Don’t look for much out of the gold dollar correlation in both directions these days. Silver is 26 97, hovering around $27. Nice, nice, nice two day rally there. And I think that’s there’s, there’s legs there.

Down $0. 20. Copper is 421, up two cent. Oil is down $0. 20 after another strong day, 85 69. Natural gas is $1. 73 and crypto is up. Bitcoin is 66 spot 328 up 58 basis points and ethereum is 3344. Platinum plating mixed, widening a little bit yesterday and grains are all up. Okay, there’s the money line. Money shot, however you want to call it. Gold rallied from 834 at the end of 2007 to a 2011 peak of 1921.

We see parallels. That’s Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence. Quick comment about Michael. He’s a technical analyst, but he’s more than that. Michael has a very good sense for history and looking at correlations. So not just charts per se, but hes a correlation person and he looks at all markets and he puts out some very good stuff on occasion. And he put out something about a year ago, im sorry, about six months ago where he discussed the potential of a replay of 2007.

I looked at it and I said yeah, but for that to happen, this has to happen. I dont think thats going to happen. I dismissed it. Good analysis, but not something that was on my radar. Here we are six months later, and Hartnett is saying the same thing, but not so extreme, not putting prices on it. Michael revisits his parallel. And you know what? Its got to be on your radar now.

Its on my radar and ill be, its pretty intense. Okay. Were going to go through that. Were going to go through the effects on the markets and were going to go through why if the stock market crashes. Youll know why? Because this parallel is pretty eerie. Its pretty creepy for me. And it’s bizarrely bullish for gold and silver, bizarrely on the surface of it. But in reality, you could see why it’s bullish for gold and silver.

It’s a very bullish scenario and the markets are playing out. It’s just creepy. I’ll show you what I’m talking about. I added some charts to make it a little bit easier to understand. All right, so here’s the piece. Low volatility, high rates and reversion risks. Not a very catchy title. Mike’s not a salesman. Subtitle gold at $3,050 crude and low volatility versus high rates. Right. I looked at the $50 crude back then.

I was that’s not going to happen. Right. All right, so the summary is the lowest CBOE S and p 500 volatility index and the highest US T bill rate since about 2007 may be a foundation for gold to head toward round number resistance of around $3,000 an ounce and WTI crude oil to revisit its enduring support pivot at about $50 a barrel. A bit of reversion and stock market volatility may be a top commodity force in 2024.

Now this sounds crazy with what we’re saying to me, but it’s not because it already happens. Let’s go through that. And that’s included that report and his charts are included in premium, but I want to go through, I want to make his case for him. Okay. All right, here’s a chart. The red rectangles in all these are 2007 to 2009. Okay? Beginning of 2007 to beginning of 2009, if you can’t see.

So let’s just read the tape here. The stock market was doing well, peaked between 2007 and 2008 near the back end, and had a steep sell off starting in 2008. That accelerated in about July of 2008. What precipitated that? I’m going to tell you. During that time, over a time period, ten year yields, yields in general have been creeping higher in concerns about inflation. So the yields were going up.

The Fed was not being very easy. And eventually those high yields cracked the market. The high yields eventually competed for peoples money and they said I can get 5. 5% ill take my money out of stocks and put it in there. But what made it worse was, and this is big, I don’t see the parallel here yet, but this is, there’s going to be something like this. It could be the brics.

Between 2007 and 2009, as you can see, crude oil is going up there. Between 2007 and 2008, oil started to ramp higher and it started to ramp higher. I’m going to tell you why it started to ramp higher. China was coming out on the global market. WTO was accepting them. They were getting brought into the whole world trade thing. It was a big Obama push, and their oil demand was hitting the global market more.

And so they were ramping up oil demand. And so what happened in 2007 is you started to see that. You may recall, if you’re old enough, remember the Beijing games with all the drummers. What a spectacle that was. What a pleasant spectacle that was. Well, that was them coming out. That was a party. That was a, hey, we’re part of the world now, right? That was a, hey, look what we can do.

And it was also like, hey, look at all the oil we can buy. And this is what happened in oil. This is when Goldman was really running the market well in oil. And the oil market spiked to $140, $150 at one point. And the oil market, spiking to 150, was sucking money out of stocks while yields were up. Sucking money out of stocks. And the stock market just collapsed.

Now, we all know what else happened, the housing market, but it was sucking money out of the housing market. There’s only so much money going around. See the parallels? But what did gold do back then? Gold went up. Now, it crashed for a month, but it never got back to where it was. Oil crashed below to where it started. Stocks crashed below to where they started. And bond yields, after spiking all the way up there, crashed below to where they started.

But all during this time, gold never crashed. It retraced some profits, but it went up. You saw a big convergence between gold. The golden stocks have been doing this. Well, they did that. Now, you may ask yourself if you’re a silver person, well, what happened to silver doing that? You know what happened, right? But I’m going to paint it a little bit bigger for you. Let’s take this red rectangle and let’s zoom out a little bit.

Gold is in that red rectangle that was up there. See what gold did. Gold during that time frame did what it did when stocks started rallying again. After all, the QE gold also started round it was slow and orderly because as I’ve said a million times, they don’t care about the price of gold. They care about how fast it gets to where it’s going. And boom, there’s gold going from 800 to 1900 in 2011.

Okay, what happened to silver? Well, this is what happened. Silver during 2007 to 2009 era, it tracked sideways, getting beat up. Right. Had a nice little rally along with oil. Oil collapsed, it collapsed, stocks collapsed, it collapsed and then it rebounded, actually leading stocks out of the rebound and then boom, $50. So this is what happened then. You know, we’re really in a situation similar to that. Yields are high and they’re not coming back down.

Inflation is sticky and it looks like it may be done coming back down. Okay. And oil is now creeping higher. You’re going to start seeing assets suck money out of the stock market, competing with it, and gold and silver are about to be one. This is a big, big deal. Now, I’m not saying that we’re going to have a crash, but I’m saying when you look at your screen one day and you see stocks down, oil down, gold unchanged, and silver down a little bit, this is the same idea.

It’s about the competition for money, which incidentally, another conversation. That’s why the Fed will have to do yield curve control to add liquidity to the market. I mean, this is good stuff. He’s right. Moving on to the market news, there are several things there, but the only thing I think that’s meaningful for the market itself is Fed chair Pal said that the economy evolves as the Fed expects most on the FOMC expect to cut rates later this year, and it is too soon to say if the recent inflation readings are more than just a bump.

Pal said inflation expectations are consistent with 2% inflation, and the Fed is committed to returning inflation to that 2% target over time. Furthermore, he said policy is restrictive and is doing its job. While he repeated that there are risks of cutting rates too soon as well as waiting too long, this is what I think based on the Mike McGlone report, based on the parallels 2007, and based on my intuition, hes really getting worried about liquidity.

Now. Obviously stocks are higher. Nobodys worried about it. But youre not worried about until its too late. If gold and oil start attracting money away from stocks, youre going to see stocks Crater and hes going to have to do a QE situation. So what hes doing is hes preparing to end QT and start yield curve control. All Im saying is the Fed is, I believe more and more looking at where we are now as a bigger version of what happened in 2007 in terms of risk.

And that’s what’s happening. And that’s why gold is going to keep going up and silver is going to keep going up because there’s no way out of this mess unless we default. And we’re not going to default. We’re just going to monetize no data today. Here’s the premium section. I have the report there. I have those charts broken out for you again, as well as the Bloomberg charts, which are very interesting in excellent.

I also added some more commentary for you all. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Let’s see what the markets are. Silver’s down $0. 19. Gold’s down $0. 08. Stocks are up 14 handles. The big data is going to be tomorrow. That’ll be payroll report, so today should be a noisy day. Let’s see what goes on. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancy, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals, where this week’s special is 1oz 2023.

Dated silver cougarans for only $3. 10 over spot. Cougarands come from the south african mint, one of the six major sovereign mints, and are IRA eligible. Find out more by calling Miles Franklin at 833-326-4653 or email us@arcadialesfranklin. com please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

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