➡ UBS, a Swiss multinational investment bank, predicts a significant increase in gold prices, expecting it to reach $3,500 this year. This forecast is based on factors such as tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and geopolitical risks. The bank also highlights the growing demand for gold in China, with insurance companies now allowed to invest up to 1% of their assets in gold. The report suggests that this trend, along with the upcoming BRICS Summit and the implementation of Basel 3 regulations, could further boost gold prices.
➡ The stock market saw a rise due to progress in US trade negotiations with Japan and the EU. Gold prices dipped slightly while oil prices held steady due to optimism about trade deals. There’s potential for a bigger rally in gold, with growing demand from China and the US. However, there are signs of the market peaking, with some predicting a sell-off.
➡ Today’s update discusses concerns among US investors about the risk of Chinese and Japanese holdings of US government bonds. This information and more can be found on the Arcadia Economics Gold and Silver Daily website. The video is for informational purposes only and advises viewers to consult with a financial advisor before making decisions. Have a great weekend and see you on Monday.

So UBS there’s room for gold to run high. Here’s an excerpt. We upgrade our gold forecast materially. We shift our price targets to the previous published upside scenario. Now looking for gold to rally to $3,500 this year. Welcome to this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancie. Where each morning he brings you the precious metals news to get you ready for your day. Now here’s Vince. Good today we’ll be discussing UBS. They have a report out as of April 11th claiming that they believe there’s room for gold to run higher.

We’ll explore that a little bit. We’re also going to discuss the upside risks to demand. Meaning further upside as alluded to in the report focusing on China. And what are the signs of this ending? We’re seeing a couple of them now. Before we move on though however we do want to say there’s no founders discussion this Sunday. We will be on holiday Monday and more importantly Happy Easter and Hoximag to everyone out there. Let’s start with the markets. Ten year yields are $4.33 up five. Most of these markets are closed by the way.

Okay so if there’s a dot or snowflake next to my market that means it’s not open. So I’ll just say the last. Ten year yields are last $4.33 and change. The dollar is $99.33 actually active. The S&P 500 last $52.96 the VIX $29.66 last. Gold is open at the spot market $33.27 and change down $15. Silver is $32.54 essentially unchanged. Copper is $4.67 up almost three cents. WTI $64.26 up $1.77. WTI definitely off its lows and percolating along with copper. If you’re a silver person that’s the sun and moon and stars lining up.

As long as gold holds its own and those two keep rallying you’re going to see someone go oh shit let’s buy some silver. And then that physical demand we talked about we’ll start to manifest in the futures. Moving on. Natural gas $3.25 down one. Bitcoin $84.500 down $300 and change. Palladium $9.59. Platinum $9.67. Soy corn and wheat down down and up very marginally $10.33, $4.79 and $5.60. Okay there’s the front page. The mechanics of yesterday’s panic into gold. You know there’s there’s another there’s another person there’s another story out there that’s worth mentioning.

When we talk about panic and by the way it’s worth mentioning because it’s right. When we talk about panic we’re talking about the mechanics of it. Okay the the this is why gold rallied. It rallied because Asia bought and then you’re bought even though they don’t usually buy into Asia’s buying. They usually kind of observe it and then the U.S. decides if we’re going to take it higher or if we’re going to smack it down or usually right about the ad. The gold fixed time in London. So that’s the mechanics of the panic and some of the research that we’re reading or you know getting a glimpse of is also showing that in a quantified way and the analysis and comments that we’ve been getting we’re seeing you know anecdotally from executives have been have been oh shit we’re gonna have to buy more gold aren’t we.

Now there’s another story that’s running parallel to this and it is also true. While there is genuine panic and the mechanics of it are seen they’re not just talking about it there’s also another side to this and that will be the WEF types that would be the the Europe forever types and they’re pushing back on Trump’s tariffs any way they can and one of the ways they’re saying it is by you know editorials openly questioning the is the Treasury safe anymore. Of course the Treasury is safe okay but you have to have a little gold if you’re gonna own some treasuries as well.

So they’re just negotiating with Trump using PR and to the extent that the continent and the the I don’t know what globalist I guess is a word to use in the UK clicking on to life over there want to negotiate with Trump using propaganda well that’s the way to do it. So the panic is real okay but as you know our friend close friend Tom Luongo says yeah Europe’s just talking out their ass trying to make it look like trying to talk the gold about the gold trying to talk the the Treasury market down.

So that’s all true and it’s crazy but that’s what they’re doing but anyway alright moving on. Yesterday featured UBS’s room for gold to run hardware to discuss that the mechanics are just that we we already went through that exclusive we put this back up it’s two days old right but it seems like a lifetime ago four days old why China’s insurance pilot plan is really a mandate that’s our opinion it’s from our last Sunday discussion and we really think it’s worth paying attention to especially since we were digesting and processing information from friend of gold fix Bai Zhaozhan who’s on the in mainland China every stable coin is financial farcraft demand for US Treasury bills that Michael’s been writing very well of late and that’s not his title that’s our title quoting him it’s true though I mean you’re going to use treasuries to stake to use tether or whatever you get the point right and then there you go there’s the rest of let’s go let’s start so UBS there’s room for gold to run higher here’s an excerpt we upgrade our gold forecast materially we shift our price targets to the previous published upside scenario now looking for gold to rally to 3500 this year the case for adding gold allocations has become more compelling than ever in this environment of escalating tariff uncertainty weaker growth higher inflation and lingering geopolitical risks the current backdrop we’re in reinforces the need to diversify into safer havens like gold we expect gold rally to extend into next year and for prices to stabilize at higher levels further out there’s a gold year in targets before we want to the next section of that that we want to talk about the China demand you know UBS is notoriously conservative and as Boyan banks go their history at least speaking to my own personal history with them they were not the enemy starting in 2006 before that they were the enemy by that I need a billion bank that doesn’t care about suppressing the market look their client basis pensions their client base is the wealthiest of the wealthy in Europe and in Asia and used to be in the US right all those people demand preservation of capital and they demand responsible what’s the word custodianship so UBS has been lagging in their target raises compared to their more aggressive brethren this is an aggressive move by them and it warranted an explanation in my opinion and I think we got it you may say that this could be near the top based on the fact that they’re going over the top but their reasons are legitimate we’re only higher now because of that report I mean not only higher but look this report came out April 11th and that means it was known about April 9th and that means people went oh shit UBS is right and bought it so this report I think had a material effect on the market okay next section we update our upside risks in deference to the China demand now an important development to monitor is the rollout of insurance companies gold mandate among those that have been allowed to invest up to 1% of assets under management and gold a few have now started doing test rates and I’m quoting this is I’m quoting the report I think here I think it quotes on it yeah this is earlier than we expected the ten insurance companies that have so far been allowed to invest in gold account for about 57 percent of the industry all right we went through this in detail giving you our interpretation of words like allowed to invest and test trades and 1% being cap the cap being raised we really if you’re interested in more detail about this we have it we have it up what do you call it hyperlink in there we believe the market has become discounted the additional purchasing coming online as well as the pilot pilot ensures not being as patient as most think so there you go next now they didn’t mention this but we’re gonna want to throw it in there to add a new wrinkle not discussed anywhere else yet but will be soon the BRICS Summit is upcoming in July right after Basel 3’s final rollout begins Basel 3 on July 1st and the BRICS I think is 6 to the 8th or 4th to the 6th no say after the 4th right so gonna be 6 to the 8th so as insane as it is the market may be lower over the next few weeks but it could be at or above these highs as the July 1st Basel 3 raw begins and the BRICS 2025 Summit closes in that continues at the bottom that analysis that breakdown of the Chinese demand a little bit more meat on that that continues at the bottom in premium also in the premium post entitled UBS there’s room for gold to run higher with a special voice note introduction to give you some framing on how to read this report next markets recap the S&P 500 and then higher as investors weighed progress in US trade negotiations with Japan and the EU Treasury yields ticked higher amid market come gold prices slipped up profit booking while the dollar was little change oil clung on trade deal optimism and fresh around sanctions energy stocks led Canada’s main stock index higher as investors took stock of US Japan trade negotiations although sentiment remain fragile amid tariff uncertainties Toronto stock exchange composite index and then 36 basis points higher all right so the summary is the you know if you want to call it a summary is gold sitting just under all-time highs once again the global head of UBS’s gold precious metals area just came back from a trip to China and the report that they put out is materially valid in discussing gold’s potential for a bigger rally material enough that people bought it when the report came out there are several areas in it it’s not a very well-written well-worded report and it tells it like it is there’s the risk to the upside there’s liquidity problems on the upside there’s a growing ETF demand out of China it’s not significant yet but it’s quadrupled in the last year I think the ETF demand in the US is also growing they’re also plugging into something that we had said about if the ETF demand returns to covid or the war it’s going to add significant upside to the market they describe it in tons we describe it in price that’s 3600 that’s our price of that but um that’s it let’s talk about let’s do a final market check talking about something we’re looking for tops here right here’s where I throw water on everything right all right the reasons to think this is the top there are two reasons one because you’re thinking about risk and another because you’re so you’re going to start hearing people talk about this is the top I think we’re gonna have a sell-off and you know what there are two schools of people doing that one is a person thinking about risk pausing to reassess before the next move and the other is someone who’s not long and wants to go back down so they can buy it so those are closet bears that’s what I would call it but let’s give some real thought to this the one of the things that gold did Jesse had mentioned a while ago that I plugged into gold starts to make new highs against currencies it from my analysis starting in the bricks so it kind of like spirals out from China to Australian dollar kind of like makes us spiral I drew a circle spiraling out from China kind of emanating from the epicenter of the earthquake and then it ends up getting to the US and then Europe and then that’s when it dissipates well there are signs of it dissipating now and I’m gonna give them to you top right hand side is golden US dollars top left hand side is golden euros top lower lower left hand side is gold in the end and lower right hand side is gold in the Swiss Frank now if the bricks currencies are the first to achieve all-time highs then the g7 currencies are the last to achieve all time highs so you can make the case that this section of the run is over when X happens meeting when all the g7 currencies have topped out usually the dollar is one of the last if not the last for the top out against but that’s not the case this time so here we go golden dollars new all-time high right right there the little red dot is right there right golden euros new all-time high mind you the euro just your the ECB just cut rates on New York they’re gonna do it again and probably again there’s definitely a fear of deflationary risk between the tariffs and China’s slowdown coming out of Europe now the end also just recently made a new all-time high so gold made a recent all-time high but look at the Swiss Frank the Swiss Frank has not seen an all-time high in gold that means the world at least the g7 world has taken their money out of dollars because they’re afraid of it this is a different rotation and usually say out of dollars because they’re afraid of all the tariffs right or the the ramifications of the tariffs and then they put their money into euros they did and then Europe said well we have to cut rates and they said oh shit we’ll put our money to yen and they did and the yen is like it is a safe haven currency it’s but you know but the point is when you look at the dynamic the safe haven currencies in the world are in this order the dollar the yen the Swiss Frank okay forget the euro even though I have it there so the dollar is no longer a safe haven based on this move the yen is not safe enough but the Swiss Frank is still safe see that the Swiss Frank has appreciated more than gold in this run up or run out of the dollar therefore if you’re in Switzerland and you’re running that economy you are not happy about that because even though it seems like a feather in your cap to be the safe haven currency of choice right now well in a deflationary environment with your neighbors the euro dropping and the British pound probably dropping as well you need a weaker currency to survive it’s a competitive debasement now dollars going to zero everyone wants to get to zero just a little bit faster and the Swiss Frank would suffer from that who’s gonna buy the chocolate right who’s gonna buy the the watches you get my point the point is they don’t want their currency to be too strong so I’m betting I’m betting this is gonna I’m betting the Swiss are gonna ease they’re gonna cut and part of the rally part of the rallying gold in Swiss Franks the recent one is because of the potentiality of a cut part of the UBS report is because of the reason of the potential for a cup and when that cut happens or if that cut happens or whether it happens or not when gold makes a new high in the Swiss Frank then you could say we should be careful and that’s and that’s how looking at it that’s you know if it continues higher now there’s another measure you may recall I had this measured move right you may recall about a week ago really it was it was a cheese it was the 14th of March at the start of the 14th of March when gold did this I’m not here when gold did this on the 14th of March we said above here is a measured move to here and that was our call for between 3350 and 3400 now it’s not a target it’s a measured move so depth equals distance there you go so here we are I can say again it’s not precise but it’s accurate when it works it happens fast and we could be done right but to hedge my own we could be done comment look at that wick that’s a nice little that’s a nice long wick we got there so maybe we are going to get a push to that price but I won’t be in it I’m not long right now I’m flat I’ve long GDX hedged let’s put it that way that said if it does get up here then we can have that whole silver rally that I’ve been talking about happening based on the physical demand in Europe but that’s another conversation that’s all for now I’m Vince lancey you can read more about or in listen in audio form more about everything we just discussed here in premium at the bottom of this post or in the other multiple posts we have on these related topics on the site have a happy Easter have a good pass over and have a pleasant Friday well thank you to Vince for this morning’s markets and metals and thank you for being here with us today and all week as we have watched some really historic events taking place in the gold and silver markets markets closed today as you already know and just hope you’re getting set for a wonderful holiday weekend or if you’re not celebrating any of the holidays that you’re just getting set for a great weekend as well and of course if you still haven’t had enough gold and silver coverage even after everything that’s happened this week well that’s why we do have the Arcadia economics gold and silver daily that is daily column that I am writing now where I keep you posted on the major things that are happening in the markets which certainly is a handful these days and amongst other recent notes we did get the silver Institute’s new set of numbers out which was in yesterday’s column and also this week we covered how metal some of that metal that came from London to New York now starting to leave there will be more on that in today’s update and of course also interesting to see things like even CNBC talking about how investors in the US have worried for decades that holdings of US government bonds by Chinese and Japanese investors were at risk who could have guessed that where could you have known about something like that other than at the Arcadia economics gold and silver daily which you can find at gold and silver daily dot substat com or to make it even easier just click on the link in the description field below and with that said go out have a wonderful weekend hope you’re truly appreciating what we are getting to witness and experience and live through right now and we will see you again on Monday please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching
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