➡ The speaker discusses the current state of financial markets, focusing on the impact of potential rate cuts and the performance of silver. They express uncertainty about the future but remain comfortable with their long-term investment in silver, despite some fluctuations. The speaker advises viewers to consult with their financial advisors before making any decisions based on this information.

UBS says silver has room to run a bit higher. Silver has been one of the strongest assets in 2025, rising 34% year-to-date, and nearly 8% in July alone. I think it’s the strongest asset. Renewed investment flows, softening dollar conditions, and tariff-induced buying pressures have pushed prices higher, with momentum now prompting institutional upgrades. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. It’s Monday morning, 7.59 in the a.m.

and this is the whole fixed market rundown. Today we’re going to be talking about the front and center story that was just emailed out. Silver has room to run. Those are UBS’s words, not ours. Well, they’re ours as well. We sent out a report this morning. They’ve raised their target to $42 from $38, which is kind of a whopping raise to 7.5%. But they expected to get there by September. So that’s pretty bold. December at the latest is what their expectations are. We’re going to go through that in a second. Let’s start with the markets.

Ten-year yields are up one at $4.40. The dollar is 98.18, up 52, pretty strong. S&P 500 to 6400, up 7. The VIX is 15.23, up 31. Gold is 33.37, up a quarter of a dollar. Silver, 30.13, down a penny. Copper is 573, up two tenths of a cent. WTI, 67.27, a buck and a quarter. Natural gas, 309, unchanged. Bitcoin, 118 spot 80, 800, down 700. Ethereum strong again on its way to 4,000, it would seem. 3875. Platinum, leading the charge on the metal side. Palladium catching up to platinum, 1242, up 26. Platinum, 1411, up 11.

Gold silver, unchanged bid, and grains are all down about 40 basis points on average. Okay, so we’ll go right to the main story. Let’s talk quickly about the prices. European trade deal, Trump basically eviscerated Europe, or at least eviscerated Europe’s public leadership in doing so. And that’s one of the reasons the dollar is stronger. Well, we’re not getting into the minutia of it. It’s good for the dollar, it’s bad for the euro. That’s what’s, I think, down today. That’s the first thing. The second thing is, you would think that would be bearish for gold, and it is not bullish for gold.

But I believe the behavior we had the last couple of days leading into the weekend, we’re probably anticipation of this happening. You remember there was a Financial Times Friday story at around noon, after everyone had sold, that they were on track for a deal. Okay, so that’s probably why gold hasn’t sold off again. You should expect it to sell off. You know, there’s always going to be more people that sell it when this news comes out. But it’s a sell the rumor by the news. You would cover your shorts here on the news, and then you’d see what happens.

Silver has been very strong relative to gold lately, and that’s because there are major players for the past month or two that have been unwinding short silver, long gold, and maybe short silver, long copper, but the gold silver has been unwound very sexually, very steadily by very big money. And they’re doing that in anticipation of a global boost to the economy. So as the tariff situation thaws, or it gets resolved, we don’t know how you look at it, industrial metals will go up, right? Also, it doesn’t hurt that copper’s got a 50% tariff in the works, and that kicks over higher, you know, silver is a critical mineral, we’re not going to admit that, but it is.

And then on the other, staying with that theme for similar, but not the same reasons, platinum spikes above 1000. Now it’s at 1400. Palladium says, well, I’m kind of worth something too. It starts to catch up. All the metals are just rising to catch up with the new floor that gold has set for them. So the old correlations are neo Keynesian dollars to gold, you know, dollars to this dot the dollar dictated commodity prices as a correlation. Now, commodity prices are being dictated to themselves. Like there’s news of a sovereign wealth fund.

I think it’s Azerbaijan, I’m not sure, but they’re the one that we hear about. But sovereign wealth funds are buying precious metals too now, but they’re oil sovereign wealth funds. So if you make money selling oil, what do you do with the silver? What do you do with the oil money? Well, you buy gold with it, you’re not buying dollars with it. The petro dollar in many countries is now combined with a petro, I’m sorry, a petro gold, a gold, however you want to say. But you know, oil and gold are going to correlate more.

So I’m waiting for gold to drag oil up. And if it doesn’t go up, there’s other things going on there. But look, if I’m a foreign country and I sell oil and I make money from that oil, and I’m not putting as much money in treasuries, well, guess where that money’s going. It’s going into gold or the one or both. OK, let’s let’s read the story here. So on Friday, after the 80 cent drumming, UBS raised their silver target to forty two dollars. Now we had a voice that as well. So UBS says silver has room to run a bit higher.

Silver has been one of the strongest assets in twenty twenty five, rising thirty four percent year to date and nearly eight percent in July alone. I think it’s the strongest asset. Period. I have to check my own writing there. Being too careful. Renewed investment flows, softening dollar conditions and tariff induced buying pressures have pushed prices higher with momentum now prompting institutional upgrades. The bank UBS just raised its silver price forecast from thirty eight dollars to forty two dollars per year across all tenors through mid twenty six. The revision reflects a constructive stance on investment and industrial demand, as well as the pullbacks toward as well as that pullbacks towards thirty seven and a quarter represent renewed buying opportunities.

We break that report down, adding important context of their prior work that also adds weight to their call. Remember, they’re saying buy the dip. Some of the topics we discussed in that report or in our analysis of that report is UBS’s recent track record. That’s the context. Their thesis about the investment flow driving price now, which makes sense. It’s industrial. Where the demand is coming from, the structural deficit. We all know the structural deficit thing, but it has to be said. U.S. dollar weakness anchors the bull case and that U.S. dollar weakness is not going away.

Silver joins the institutional rotation. That’s a nod to something that we’ve been saying that macro discretionary is looking at silver now. And then the voice note is we say this is this report, which we cover in detail, is stake, not sizzle. And that whole analysis is in UBS raises the target to forty two dollars with the voice note. Next, over the weekend, posts. UBS started the weekend raising price targets for for platinum. They’re not in love with platinum. They just say that it’s tight and it may stay that way for a little bit longer.

And we had a we put up a post by Ronnie Stofaro of in gold. We trust incremental gold’s next five years could be history repeating itself in a big way. And that’s a pretty good piece. Well, really good piece, because it talks about the analogy with the 70s, but not in the way that you used to with the inflation talks about the relationship of the metals with other assets. Founders, the U.S. race, a dominant AI, stable coins will break something. So what if they do? That’s some analysis that we read, some analysis that we made and some opinions that we have.

And then on Sunday, we posted special yield curve control primer and hard net walkthrough. So the hard net walkthrough was embedded in that going to start seeing, I believe you’re going to start seeing more talk about money supply, M1 and M2. We’ll talk about those when it needs to be. Financial repression will come up and yield curve control. So all those things are going to come up in topic form or macroeconomic narrative going forward. And that’s because the dollar is weak and we’re going to be creating more debt. And so people are now looking strongly or closely towards the dollar relationship with rates.

The rates are still high and the dollar is weaker. And it’s kind of like the gold story repeating itself. Anyway, that primer will get you through yield curve control in a way that you can understand it, as well as with little academic backing there. And it’ll prepare you for the narratives coming out soon. Data on Deck, a big week, Fed Week employment and PCE, Fed Week. So Wednesday, 2 p.m., the Fed interest rate decision, people are talking about two or three rate cuts for the year. Well, they’re running out of room. So we need a rate cut.

We don’t need a rate cut. But if you’re going to get a rate cut, you have a stock market that’s betting on two or three rate cuts, you probably want one now. So it could be pretty pivotal if he doesn’t cut. I’m not sure. PCE index is in June and August is non-farm payrolls unemployment report. A quick look at the charts. No, let’s leave that up there. We’re in the middle of the range. This was a painful move for me because I bought this and I’m out. I literally sold it on Friday. So that’s it.

We’re in a range. It’s not a bad range. We were in a range from December to February, from December 23 to February 24. And it was worse than this before we catapulted higher. So this started out looking to me unprofessionally like a distribution type of top. But it’s not. It’s a consolidation. And you can thank silver for that. You can thank some of that. This nonsense, I think it’s nonsense. I’m long silver. And it started with a trade that I put on here, added to it here, and I’m comfortable. I don’t start to get worried until we get to 37.

I don’t start to look at it with fear until we get to 37. And I’m really not that worried until we get to the bottom of the 36 range. So I’m kind of in the UBS mindset. It’s a longer term trade for me now. It’s a short term trade that’s become something that I’m comfortable staying with, especially with the reflation trade. That’s it. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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