Summary
Transcript
The Trump trade is on, but are you going to profit from it or do you dislike Trump so much that you’re going to sit this one out? Now, my opinion is that leave any political orientation or perception on the sidelines to understand how this affects the markets and of course the asset prices. So in this video, I’m going to break down what the Trump trade is. We’re going to look at what asset prices are already being moved, what the expectations are, what I’m expecting from that. We’re going to look at how we can play this regardless of who wins in November.
So let’s go. All right. Welcome back. If you’re new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss, and I make these videos to help you understand the moves in the markets. Of course, you can be on the winning side of these. And regardless of who wins in November, there’s going to be winners and losers in the markets because asset prices are already moving. So let’s break this down. I’m not getting into the political debate. Is it going to be a free or fair election? I don’t know. Is Kamala really going to make it to November? I don’t know.
There’s a lot of questions, but we’re not diving into that today. I will say though, side note, I know you want some of my opinions. You know, that saying that gets used way too much where there’s decades where nothing seems to happen and then there’s decades or there’s days where decades seem to happen. That’s what we’re living through right now. A lot of you probably need to kind of sort of pull back to understand exactly how important things are right now today. We are literally living through history books. So when you look through history books of like the fall of the USSR and how one president was swapped out for another or in durable countries, how that happens right now, today.
That’s exactly what we’re living through right now. The word coup d’etat comes to mind, and I don’t think it’s used enough. I think that’s exactly what we’re living through. And so we’re really witnessing an entire shift in the United States, maybe the biggest since FDR’s New Deal, which kind of turned us from a capitalist to more of a socialist type nation. This is a really big deal. I can go on and on and on about that. I’m not happy about it. I think it’s extremely horrible. I think the side that’s calling for the need to save democracy is literally killing it.
That being said, I’m not going to go dive deep into all that. We’re going to talk about what happens if Trump wins in November to the markets, to the asset prices, because one way or another, whatever’s going to happen, politics is going to happen. You and I can decide how we navigate the world after that. Now, I talk about money pretty much mostly all the time, money for the most part. And the reason why it’s important to me are for really two reasons. And that’s for me to have more options for my family. And so I can help more people.
That’s it. That’s why I care about money. And trust me, the way the country’s going, you probably want to have some options. So let’s talk about that real quickly. Now, first of all, is Trump going to win? Will he even make it there? I mean, who knows? They could try to kill him again for all we know. Is Kamala going to be there? Will she get replaced by Hillary or Michelle Obama? I mean, who knows, right? Well, one way we can tell is not by trusting mainstream media, not by trying to trust their polls, but the betting markets.
What we found is that when people are betting, when they put money in, they have true skin in the game. The odds, or I should say the results of those betting markets are really, really, really accurate. Scary accurate, as a matter of fact. And so there’s betting markets that are going on. We can see one of them is a polygon. And when Trump got shot, the attempted assassination, the amount of bets in that market shot to the roof, I think there was about 25 to $40 million a day of bets being placed. I think it jumped to like three to 500 million massive, massive numbers.
There’s a lot of people putting skin in the game, betting on who they think will win. Now I can tell you, as of just a couple of weeks ago, on July 17th, Trump was predicted by the betting markets to win by 69% of the vote. We had Joe Biden, who was still in at the time, who had a 19% chance of winning. Trump had a 69% chance of winning. At that time, back on July 17th, Kamala had a 6% chance of winning. Michelle Obama had a 2% chance of winning. All the other Democrat politicians had about a 2% or less, and RFK Jr.
had a 1%. Now these are not my predictions. These are not poll predictions. These are betting market predictions. That’s what the betters are saying. I would like to think RFK would have a way better chance than that. I certainly would. I would think he has, if it was me, I would say he probably has at least a 20 to 30% chance, but the markets say 1%. Now that was 717. As of today, at the time of this recording, July 20, what are we at? July 23rd, that’s changed. So now everything changed. Trump got shot. Biden dropped out.
And Trump’s gone from a 69% chance of winning now to a 64% chance of winning. So it’s gone down. And Kamala, obviously Biden’s out now. Kamala went from a 6% chance of winning to a 33%. And it’s pretty interesting because if you looked at it before, Biden was only 19, and Kamala was 6. So what is that? 25%. So now Trump went down from 69 to 64, and Kamala went from 6% to 33%. Pretty big deal. Moshel Obama is still at just 2%. RFK Jr. is now less than 1% chance of winning. And all other Democrat politicians, you know, people are talking about whether Gavin Newsom will come up there, Gretchen Whitmer or whatever, all of them combined are less than 1%.
So again, that’s the betting markets. Nobody has a crystal ball, but these things have been historically very, very accurate. Maybe one reason why the politicians are trying to outlaw betting markets and prediction markets. They don’t want you to have that accurate information because polls are mostly propaganda. Don’t pay attention to those things. I’ll link down to some of the betting markets that you can follow this. If you want, follow up and put in the show notes down below because again, this is going to be way more accurate than any polls that you’re hearing. Now, let’s talk about the money.
Let’s talk about the money in the markets. Now, somebody I follow on Twitter, Alex Krueger. He’s a macro economist. He’s from Argentina. I like a lot of his content. He put out the Trump trade in different types of asset class. I’m going to pull from some of the stuff. We’ll link to the tweet down below if you want to go check it out and follow him. He’s worth a follow. Now, he’s also worth a follow. He puts out good content. He’s a macro economist from Argentina. And the reason why I emphasize from Argentina is because I talk a lot about sort of America with Argentinian vibes.
If you want to know where the future of America is, kind of look at Argentina. Now, in slow motion, Argentina’s had triple digit inflation for multiple years. I’m certainly not saying we’re going into that type of hyperinflation. But in slow motion, that’s the direction that we’re headed. But let’s just jump right into it. Alex Krueger’s kind of posting some of the things that I’m seeing. So the number one thing on the Trump trade right now is very, very bullish, a very, very positive outlook for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in general. OK, so the reasons why are pretty apparent if you’re paying any attention.
The Trump administration has openly come out and supported Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for that matter. As a matter of fact, there’s a headline that says that Trump and Vance, the new VP pick, Trump and Vance will be the first crypto presidency. That’s what insiders in Silicon Valley are saying. So we have Trump, who’s openly come out and said he’s going to protect it. He thinks it’s an American right. He wants America to be first with it. JD Vance, who openly has disclosed that he owns Bitcoin. Of course, he’s a tech investor from Silicon Valley. They’ve openly embraced it.
Now, it’s important to understand this key piece because the Biden administration, I say the administration, not specifically Biden, but the administration, Elizabeth Warren, most likely, or not most likely, but most importantly, has been on an anti-crypto campaign. So she’s been openly promoting an anti-crypto platform to shut it all down. And then the SEC, head by Gary Gensler, has been openly attacking, we call it chokepoint 2.0, trying to shut down cryptocurrencies. RFK Jr. has embraced it. He’s pro Bitcoin. He spoke at the Bitcoin conference last year, and now Trump and Vance are as well. Trump says he’ll be the first crypto president.
As a matter of fact, Trump said, quote, Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC, a central bank digital currency. That’s what he put on truth social. He went on to say, quote, Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China and Russia and the communist left. See how he’s putting that? Now, I mean, I’m not trying to make this political here, but that’s what we have. The Biden administration wants to take away your right to use what you want as money, and Trump wants to promote it, wants to protect it. And he’s saying that the hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia and the communist left because they can get ahead while the American people will get punished by that.
He also went on to say, quote, he wants all the remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA, and he wants us to be energy dominant. Now, we know that from his previous presidency, he was very pro energy. Now, that’s the Trump trade. He will be very positive for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, relax, relaxing the regulations. There’s rumors right now that we’ll see at the Bitcoin conference, potentially some sort of an announcement that he would actually put Bitcoin on the strategic reserves for the United States. So this is really big news. And of course, if that happens, you’ll see the price of Bitcoin explode and we already have since he started running on this platform.
And since the shooting, the price of Bitcoin, I believe, jumped like ten thousand dollars in like a single day during that assassination attempt. And it’s only continue to go up. And so I would expect Bitcoin and the crypto narrative overall to be extremely bullish. It already is now will continue. All right. Now, we’re talking about Bitcoin in the future of the financial system. I want to make sure you secure it properly. Millions of Bitcoin have been lost. Myself personally has lost a lot of Bitcoin, maybe worth millions of dollars in today’s dollars. And so I’ve learned the hard way that I want to secure it with a hardware wallet like this.
Keep your private key safe. This is a Trezor hardware wallet. You plug it in, you do your transaction and you unplug it. Don’t leave it on an exchange. I’ve lost it that way. Don’t leave your Bitcoin on a phone. I’ve lost it that way as well. Secure it with a hardware wallet like Trezor. I’ve used it for over a decade. I think it’s the easiest one to use. It’s open source hardware. So you don’t have to worry about some back door and someone rug pulling you and taking your Bitcoin. That’s why I like the Trezor. And it’s pretty cheap.
And if you’d like to save even more money, there’s a link in the description down below that you can save some money with it. But look, whether you use a Trezor or not, use something. Don’t leave your Bitcoin on the exchange or at risk of getting hacked off of your phone. Secure with a hardware wallet like this Trezor. There’s a link down below. Now let’s go back into the video. The second thing is that it’ll be very bullish for fossil fuels, as they like to call them. I call them oil and gas, oil, gas and steel.
So Trump ran on a platform of being energy independent. Biden’s first day in office, his very first thing, the most important thing he did was basically repeal everything Trump had done, including shutting down the oil and gas industry. Repealing permits, not allowing people to go explore, not allowing people to get supply to the market, which is why, of course, the gas price is shot so high. You restrict the supply, the man stays the same, the price goes up. So Biden has been very bearish, very heavy on oil and gas, oil and gas exploration, etc. And we would expect Trump to turn that completely around, open it back up, deregulate things, put new policies in place to promote domestic production, turning oil into gas, fossil fuels, industrial metals, things like that.
And so what would happen from that? Well, that could really unlock the entire economy. You have to understand that everything in the economy is driven by the price of energy, right? It doesn’t matter if it’s a loaf of bread or it’s food at your store or it’s a new t-shirt, like it all has to be driven there or shipped there, required energy to run the lights to run the equipment to build it, whatever it is. And so when you can lower the price of energy, the price of everything comes down. When the prices come down, businesses have better margins, business explode, your purchasing power goes up.
And so being bullish on oil and gas is bullish really on the economy and it’s bullish on humanity overall. Number three, I would expect this Trump trade to continue to be very bullish for financials. When I talk about financials, I’m talking about banks, limited institutions, things like that. The reason why is, again, back to deregulation. When Trump run on the first presidency, I believe he said that for every one new regulation that was put in place, he would repeal three. And I didn’t fact check this before, but I believe he actually repealed five for every new one.
So he’s very much in favor of deregulating things, letting the free markets actually, you know, be free, letting business owners actually, you know, create business. And so we would see a lot of deregulation in the financial sector that would reduce compliance costs. And then, of course, you reduce costs that increases profitability for the financial institutions. And that means, again, bullish for that financial space. We’d probably see both Biden and Trump want to print a bunch of money. Both of them are bad for the national debt. Both of them are going to want to print, you know, have the government print money.
They’ll spend it in different ways. One of the ways that I would expect to see Trump do that would be, again, back to the financial sectors, bring these rates back down. And that would kind of goose the short term borrowing rates and the long term lending rates. I mean, he’s a real estate guy overall. So we expect to see the financials increase and then the lending markets increase, you know, real estate takeoff and things like that. The next way that this Trump trade is playing out already right now, right in front of our eyes and will continue, is really being bullish in the small cap stock sector.
Now, what we’ve seen over the last couple of years is really like an S&P 500. It’s just the MAG 7, the top seven stocks that are driving the entire market cap. And so we’ve seen this big divergence of the big caps, the seven stocks really driving the market and everything else sort of falling behind. But we’re seeing right now is small cap stock stocks are blowing up. They’re taking off. Why? Well, the reason why is, well, let’s see if Trump brings back in lower taxes again, and we would expect him to do that because he says he will.
But more importantly, that’s what he did in his first run in office. Now, one of the things that he did that I’ve talked about many, many times is adding bonus depreciation or sell depreciation. It’s been running out. It was going from 100 percent in year one, 80 percent, 60 percent. Hopefully that gets renewed. We have lower taxes and less deregulation. And then we support domestic manufacturing back at home. Then that’s very bullish for small cap. These are the small players, right? Bring entrepreneurship back, bring manufacturing back. The small players will do really, really well. And we’ve already seen that.
And we can see that by comparing the Russell 2000 index as we have the chart on the screen right now, the Russell 2000 index to the S&P 500. And you can see the Russell was lagging way behind the S&P 500. And now all of a sudden is catching up. Now, this is pretty bullish. We’ve seen this before. When do we see it before? Well, we saw it in 2016, the last time Trump was running for president. We can also see it, this Trump trade playing out in real time by looking at the bets that are long the Russell and short the NASDAQ 100.
And we can see that after the attempted assassination that has completely reversed course and that Trump trade is playing out in real time. As you can see up on the screen, we can also see that industrials are outperforming the S&P 500. So the S&P 500 that’s been driven mainly by this MAG 7, these big tech stocks, that’s all starting to shift. The small caps are outperforming. The Dow industrials are taking off. And that is a big, big momentum shift. The next catalyst for the Trump trade is onshoring or at least nearshoring. Now, Biden’s talked about this to some extent.
As a matter of fact, the Biden administration put together the CHIPS Act, which was putting money aside to bring microchip manufacturing back to the United States. The Inflation Reduction Act. They want to give tax breaks to people that built and bought from Made in America type of a thing. We would expect that to really escalate in a Trump administration. If you remember in Trump’s first administration, he was really heavy on China. He was imposing tariffs. And that’s really where the trade war started. And to bring a lot of this back to the U.S. And now he’s talking about how, for example, there’s onshoring, which is bringing manufacturing back to the United States.
There’s nearshoring, which is like move to Mexico. Get it nearby. The problem is that down in Mexico, which is becoming one of the most geopolitically important countries in the northern hemisphere, probably over the next several years, because of all the manufacturing that’s going there, a lot of it’s coming from China. So China’s setting up their manufacturing in Mexico and then shipping across the border. And Trump’s like, whoa, whoa, whoa, that’s not going to work for me. If you want China, if you want to build and sell in the United States, that’s fine. But move the factory to the United States.
You see, China allows manufacturers from the United States to go manufacture in China, but it has to be done in China. And Trump wants to do the same thing. And so we would see a huge bullish catalyst in the markets from re-onshoring. And that would be very positive for domestic manufacturing companies that are involved in the re-shoring efforts, things like that, and very bullish for commodities that would be required for that, copper, concrete, things like that. Now, it’s not all roses. It’s not all bullish. In the Trump trade, the opposite side of being bullish on energy and natural gas and coal and oil is being bearish on renewable energy.
Now, the reason why is that if we’re trying to promote cheap, abundant energy, then we would probably be reducing the emphasis on environmental regulations and supporting fossil fuels means we don’t need to be supporting renewable energy. So we’d probably see a potential decrease in subsidies for the renewable energy projects. Now, I’ve been talking about this a lot. We’ve done several videos on this. I believe they’re sort of already on their way out, and we can see this in a number of ways. So, for example, like Ford and GM, which are sort of being forced into producing EVs, and we’re building new plants in the south to manufacture their new EVs, have been scrapping their plans.
If they cancel the plants to build the cars, then that means the cars don’t get built. We can see over on the east coast, huge renewable energy fields like windmills projects are getting canceled. They can’t get funding, or they’re being shut down altogether. They’re killing too many wells, etc. So we’re already seeing a big shift towards being bearish on renewable energy. If Trump gets elected, I would expect to see that continue. Strong oil and gas, bearish on renewable energy, or as I like to call it, unreliable energy. The next thing we’d also see is not a bullish case, but a bearish case.
I would expect to see it being bearish for healthcare. The reason why is Trump has already talked about, and I believe would continue to try to repeal or replace big parts of Obamacare. And so that would create uncertainty in the healthcare system. Any time you make a big change, like even implementing Obamacare, it was massively disruptive. And so what economies like is predictability. I want to know what to expect. They say the markets are forward-looking, forward-bedding machines, right? And so I want to know what to expect. When there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, you know what to do? It creates a bearish narrative, and that’s probably what happens in healthcare as well.
I think repealing Obamacare would actually be very bullish for the overall economy, and for the majority of Americans, pocketbook, if you will, their standard of living. But it could create a bearish overtone for the healthcare industry. Now, that’s sort of the predictions that we have. But here’s what I want to come back to again. The TDS, the Trump Derangement Syndrome, is real. And I can already see and hear all the comments that are already filling up down below this video. And so please, go ahead, drop me your comments. Let me know what you think. However, this isn’t about supporting Trump, hating Trump, or liking Trump.
It’s not about either of those. It’s about understanding that things in the market happen. They don’t happen to us. We’re not victims. They just happen. They can happen to us, or they can happen for us. I’ve talked about before that there is no such thing as good and bad timing. There’s good and bad strategy. So that means regardless of what happens, whether it’s Kamala takes the White House or Trump takes the White House, there’s going to be different outcomes. As long as we understand what those different outcomes are, and we position ourselves differently, we can come out ahead either case.
It’s one reason why, yeah, sometimes I talk about all the bad stuff that’s going on in the world. Not because I’m a doom and gloom-er, but I’m trying to understand the threat, the attack vector, so I can figure out how to play around it. Okay, that’s it. So again, if you have TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome, put that aside. If you worship Trump, put that aside as well. This is not about who wins. It’s about regardless of who wins, different things will happen in the market, and I am positioning my money and my assets in a certain way to benefit from that either way.
So again, back to the prediction markets. Not only the prediction markets are expecting Trump to win by well over 60%, they’re also predicting an almost 100% chance of rate cuts. And that’s another big catalyst. I’ve talked about rate cuts extensively. Most people, including myself, thought it would have come sooner, but the Fed has been holding off. But now there’s almost 100% chance that rates are cut by September. So that’s a pretty big deal. Now, I do want to give you a word of caution, right? We’ve seen plenty of false starts in some of these various financial assets like I’ve talked about before.
We’ve seen the false starts in the past. For example, the Russell 2000 strength, it could disappear, right? If these companies can’t actually produce the earnings needed to support their current, you know, excitement in the markets, they could crash back down. Right? Interest rates could stay up. I mean, right now the betting markets will come down. They could stay up, right? Bitcoin, of course, is taking off really big, but it’s volatile, right? So it could be going up depending on, you know, what news announcements come out in a given time. So I just want to give a word of caution.
The Trump play is in effect. Watch the betting markets to see the probability of that coming through. Again, I’ll link to that down below. And pay attention to this Trump trade. Whether you like them or not, it’s moving the markets. Now for me, I decided to go ahead and make money off of this, whether I like the news or not. It doesn’t really matter to me as an investor, but let me know what you think. All right. Leave me a comment down below. Let me know if you think TDS will keep people from making money in this market, or if you’re going to play this like a real investor and not get caught up in the ideology behind this.
Let me know in the comments down below. Of course, as always, give me a thumbs up if you like the video. If you don’t, that’s okay. You can give me a thumbs down. At least tell me why in the comments down below. And that’s what I got. All right. To your success. I’m out. I’m out. [tr:trw].
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