Right now, there’s a market signal happening that has literally never occurred before in recorded financial history. For 200 years, when economies get weak, long-term interest rates fall amidst basic economics. But today, every major developed country is seeing the exact opposite happen simultaneously. And what’s terrifying is that most people have no idea this is even occurring or what this means. And this isn’t just some academic curiosity. This signal has historically preceded massive wealth transfers. Miss this and you could watch your purchasing power evaporate. Understand it and you’ll know exactly where to position yourself before the crowd catches on.

I’m Mark Moss. I’ve been tracking global macro trends for over two decades and I’ve never seen anything like this. And by the end of this video, you’ll understand what smart money is seen that everyone else is missing. So let’s go. All right, jumping right in, let me show you something that should be impossible. Now, right now, as I’m recording this, the US 30-year treasury yield is sitting at over 5%. Now, that may not sound like much to you, but here’s the thing. This is the third time we’ve seen yields this high since October of 2023.

And of course, just a few days ago on May 21st, we actually broke above 5.09%. But here’s where this interesting. These bond yields are spiking during one of the weakest economic periods we’ve seen in the years. The US economy actually contracted in the first quarter of 2025. We’re talking negative 0.3% GDP growth. And that’s the first contraction we’ve had since early 2022 during the pandemic supply chain mess. Now, here’s the data that should make your head spin. Now, the last time the 30-year treasury yields were consistently above 5% was back in 2007.

And of course, that was during a completely different world. We’re talking about an economic boom. We’re talking about GDP was growing demographics were strong. We had a private sector debt fueled expansion happening. But today, Goldman Sachs just downgraded the US growth forecast from 2.2% down to 1.7%. The conference board is warning that tariffs could substantially lower GDP growth and weaken the labor market. We had Mark Zandi from Moody’s analytics said and I quote, everything is lining up for a much weaker, perhaps recessionary economy dead ahead. So we’ve got 2007 level bond yields happening during the 2025 level economic weakness.

But here’s what’s shocking. This isn’t just happening in America. Every major developed economy is experienced this simultaneously. Let me show you the data here. Germany’s 30-year bonds are sitting at 3.10% right now. And that’s the highest we’ve seen them since the global financial crisis. But here’s the kicker. The German economy is barely growing. They just slashed their 2025 growth forecast down to 0.3%. And of course, Goldman Sachs is saying their real GDP hasn’t changed since the fourth quarter of 2019. The UK just as bad their 30 year guilds hit 5.46%.

That’s the highest level since May 1998. But the UK economy has been struggling with what they’re calling faltering growth and weakened business sentiment. Japan, they’re even more interesting. Their 30 year yields are screaming higher. They just hit 3.07%. That’s a 25 year high, with some maturities reaching all time records. And get this, Japan’s own prime minister just told parliament that their fiscal situation is worse than Greece was during the European debt crisis. It keeps going. Australia’s 30 year bonds are at 5.16%, also making new highs. So we’ve got Germany, the UK, Japan, Australia, all of them seeing bond yields spike to levels we haven’t seen in decades.

But here’s what makes this incredible. All of these countries are dealing with weak economic conditions, stagnant growth, or outright economic struggles. The last time we saw bond yields at these levels across the developed world was during economic booms, not during what the German Industry Association calls stagnation, and what experts are worried could turn into a recession. So the question is, if this isn’t about economics, then what’s it really about? Okay, so to understand why this is so alarming, we need to go back in time. Now the last time we saw 30 year treasury yields consistently above 5% was back in 2007.

And of course, like I said, that was a completely different economic environment. We’re talking about back then the height of the housing boom, we’re talking home mortgage debt being exploding from 46% of GDP into the 1990s up to 73% by 2008, reaching over 10 and a half trillion dollars. Back then unemployment was low in 2007, it was sitting around 4.7%. We had full employment, strong consumer spending, businesses were investing heavily. But what happened when the financial crisis hit in 2008, those same 30 year yields crashed down to 2.53% as investors ran to safety, and the economy collapsed.

And that makes sense, right? I mean, when the economy weakens, that lowers bond yields. That’s like economics 101. Like during COVID, the 30 year yields hit an all time low of 1.79% when the economy was literally shut down. I mean, the pattern has always been the same. Economic strength pushes yields higher, economic weakness pushes them lower. But there’s a smoking gun here, something that proves this isn’t about economics anymore. This is the key thing. We’ve seen the markets and the economy diverge. And it comes from an asset that’s been screaming this warning since early 2024.

Now this chart tells us the exact moment everything changed. Gold surged more than 40% since the start of January 2024 repeatedly shattering records, according to Goldman Sachs. But here’s what’s interesting. This wasn’t a gradual rise. This was a breakout. Something shifted in early 2024. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January was also just the surface of this. What we’re really seeing was the beginning of a massive move out of traditional monetary assets and into hard assets. Central banks started buying gold at unprecedented levels, over 1000 tons for the third consecutive year, according to JP Morgan.

And here’s the key point. Gold doesn’t typically perform this well when the economy is supposedly doing okay. Gold surges when people lose confidence in the long term value of money itself. Now since the beginning of 2025 alone, gold’s gained another 28%. That’s not normal market behavior. That’s monetary distress. And if you think gold’s move was dramatic, wait until you see Bitcoin. Even Bitcoin, despite its volatility, is telling the same story. After the Bitcoin ETF approvals in January 2024, we saw massive institutional inflows, $1.9 billion in early January alone, creating what analysts called a supply demand imbalance.

We saw Bitcoin climb from $40,000 to over $70,000 by March. But here’s what’s really telling. This isn’t just retail FOMO. MicroStrategy has increased their Bitcoin holdings to over 450,000 Bitcoin during that time, divided over 45 billion. Now they’re holding over 550,000 Bitcoin. US entities now hold 65% of global Bitcoin reserves. I mean, these are what we call the smart money. These are sophisticated institutions making strategic decisions about monetary assets. In January 2025, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of 109,000, just hours before Trump’s inauguration. And of course, the timing isn’t coincidental. Both gold and Bitcoin are responding to the same underlying monetary concerns.

So we’ve got two completely different assets, traditional store value gold, we have digital asset Bitcoin, and they’re both screaming the same warning signal, at least since 2024. They’re telling us this shift from economic fundamentals to monetary concerns is real. So if this isn’t about economics, what’s it really about? This is about the long term value of money itself. Let me show you the numbers that bond markets are pricing in right now. Okay, we have Trump’s new big beautiful bill. It’s projected to add nearly $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

Now that’s according to the Congressional Budget Office. So we’re not talking about small numbers here. Moody’s just downgraded the US credit rating specifically because of the increasing burden of financing the government’s budget deficit, as well as, of course, the high cost of rolling over existing debt during high interest rates. But here’s the crazy part. Ray Dalio pointed out that Moody’s isn’t even considering the risk of federal government printing money to pay its own debt. It’s not just the US either. As I said, Japan’s Prime Minister admitted their fiscal situation is worse than Greece was during the European debt crisis.

Germany’s fiscal polish shifts are rippling across Europe and pushing yields higher everywhere. We have bond markets essentially pricing in a world where governments can’t or won’t balance their budgets, which means that there’s only one way out of this. And that’s a currency devaluation. Basically making their money worth less to pay off debts with cheaper dollars, with cheaper euros, yen or pounds or whatever. But here’s the thing. Everyone’s focused on the wrong catalyst. Everyone’s focused on the Moody’s downgrade as the as the catalyst pushing yields higher. But that’s missing the bigger picture. Yes, Moody’s downgraded the US from AAA to AA-1.

And of course, the media ran with that story. But if you look at the data, yields were already climbing before Moody’s even made their announcement. Now the 30 year Treasury has been pushing higher for weeks as budget negotiations intensified. And of course, investors started pricing this in into the fiscal reality. As one portfolio manager put it, longer term, it blows out the deficit yields are going higher because treasures are becoming incrementally less appealing and less trustworthy. As our budget deficit stays extremely high for a very long period of time, with no signs of it going back to normal.

So look, this isn’t about a credit rating. It’s about a fundamental shift in how investors view the long term purchasing power of government currencies. So the question is, what should you do with this information now? Well, smart money is already positioning for this reality. I mean, look at the numbers. Gold delivered a 33% gain in 2024, strongest performance since the 1970s. And this year, gold’s up another 27%, hitting record high after record high. The S&P 500 has also been strong. It’s gained over 23% in 2024, following a 24% gain in 2023. Of course, from all that money printing the bonds, they’re getting crushed.

And here’s why, as JP Morgan points out fixed income doesn’t cushion portfolios from inflation because your income is fixed. It’s the whole point. And if prices are rising, your purchasing power continues to get eroded. Now we’re seeing a massive treasury sell off that’s prompting investors to completely reassess their fixed income allocations. The big institutions, of course, they’re seeing this. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, they’re understanding that gold acts as a hedge against market volatility and inflation. And of course, it’s got no correlation with other asset classes like stocks and bonds.

Now, unless these economies choose to tighten their belts, which is, of course, highly unlikely, given the political realities, this underlying dynamic is going to favor hard assets, and maybe some stocks relative to bonds. Now, the writing’s on the wall, but there’s a specific timeline that you need to know. And this timeline is accelerating faster than most people realize. Here’s the immediate crisis. The debt ceiling, it was restored on January 2nd at 36.1 trillion. And we’re already operating under what they call extraordinary measures. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the X date, that’s the date that the US can no longer meet its obligations will be reached in August or September of this year.

Some estimates say it could be as early as June. And the long term picture, it’s even scarier. Federal debt held by the public will rise from 100% of GDP this year to 118% by 2035. That’s higher than the previous record at 106% set in 1946 after World War Two. Now as of February, federal debt was already 36.2 trillion up almost $2 trillion from 2024 and $4 trillion from 2023. I mean, this is what the markets are pricing in right now. They’re not waiting for these deadlines to hit. And there’s one final piece of evidence that confirms this trend is accelerating.

Again, it goes back to the US Treasury 30 year yield. I mean, it broke recent highs again, again, breaking over 5%, breaking above this key 5% level for the second time this week. I mean, again, like I said, these are levels that we haven’t seen since October of 2023. And the momentum is building. And it’s the same thing again that we’re seeing globally. Higher Treasury yields are pushing borrowing costs up across the globe. And the speed and the scale of this Treasury sell off is creating market dislocation. We see bid ask spreads, they’re widening.

Some trading deaths report spreads double their normal levels. Now this is an orderly price discovery. This is the beginning of a monetary crisis. The signal isn’t just present. It’s accelerating. Every week we’re seeing new highs, new records, new signs that the shift from economic fundamentals to monetary concerns is gaining momentum. Now, this video is not doom and gloom. All right. These are just the realities. This is the shift that we’re seeing right now, whether we’re living through. And as long as we position ourselves correctly, then we can protect ourselves, we can make a lot of money along the way.

Okay, so how exactly do we do that? Well, real quick, before we go into how do we position ourselves to profit from all of this, I want to go and thank and mention today’s video sponsor, which is our gentle silver ticker AG AGF. Now, it’s sort of ties in perfectly into what we’ve been talking about. When you’re looking at hard assets during currency devaluation, silver has been absolutely on fire. Silver just hit $34 an ounce. That’s a 12 year high. And of course, that’s after surging more than 160% from the March 2020 low.

But here’s what caught my attention about our gentle silver specifically, you’ve got some serious heavyweight investors backing this company, we got billionaire mining, Titan Frank Gustra, he just increased his stake to over 15% saying this is a vehicle to fulfill a 40 year dream of scaling a pure play silver company. And just recently, one of Argentina’s most prominent businessmen, Eduardo Elstein invested 5 million into the company. But here’s the real kicker. Argentina owns 100% of the El Cuevo project in Argentina, which hosts an indicated resource of 45.3 million ounces of silver.

Now, this makes it one of Argentina’s top three undeveloped silver deposits. And get this, they acquired this project for just 3.5 million USD. Of course, that was after the previous owners had already spent over 60 million Canadian and discovered what’s now the third largest undeveloped silver resource in Argentina. That’s acquiring a proven asset at a fraction of what it’s going to cost to develop. Now the company’s got about $31 million market cap with about 9 million in working capital. So they’re well funded to advance this project forward. And with silver hitting 12 year highs, institutional money plowing into hard assets.

This is exactly the kind of story you want to research during this monetary shift that we’re discovering. This is exactly the kind of story that you want to research during this monetary shift we’ve been discussing. Now again, that’s our gentle silver ticker AG AGF, of course, do your own homework, maybe add it to your watch list, because this fits right into the hard assets theme that we’re talking about. And of course, thanks again to our gentle for sponsoring today’s video. Okay, so that’s one specific example. But let me give you the bigger picture strategy.

And it’s somewhat simple. You just need to position yourself in hard assets, hard assets, gold, Bitcoin, real estate, things they can’t artificially create more of some quality stocks. Now specifically, those will be companies with strong pricing power that can pass inflation through the consumers. And of course, avoid at all costs, long term bonds. Look, things change. This is about understanding the new monetary reality. When governments are on a path of currency devaluation, you want to own things that maintain their value in real terms, not promises to pay you back in, of course, a devalued currency.

These monetary shifts happen slowly, but then all at once. And positioning before the crowd catches on is how you protect and grow your wealth. So you might want to watch this next video right here, where I break down exactly how the US is planning on devaluing the US dollar, how far and what this is going to do to push hard assets like Bitcoin up. I’ll see you over there. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.