So look at Donald Trump’s electoral vote total right now. If the polls are exactly right, 262. But let’s say the polls are off like they were back in 2020. Look where he goes. He goes to 312. Why is that? Because the polls underestimated Donald Trump in 2020. So the bottom line is, instead of losing those Great Lake battleground states, he wins all of them. He obviously holds on to North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, and he gains Nevada. So if the polls are as good as they were in 2020, despite the fact that at this particular hour, Donald Trump trails in enough states to give Kamala Harris the victory, the polls are off like they were in 2020.

Donald Trump would actually win the election. Hey, gang, it’s me, Dr. Steve. And you know, everyone is saying it, but I think we can all agree it’s absolutely true. This is going to be the single most important election of our lifetime. So much is riding on the results of this election. The economy, the border inflation, the, the potential of World War three. And I think we can all agree that were Trump to lose, these next four years are going to be very, very difficult indeed. But how likely is that? How likely is it, given all the indicators that we have that Trump loses? We trust, if we trust the polls, they would say it’s a toss up.

But is there another way to look at this election? And if there is, how is Trump measuring up? Well, my guest today is here to say that he’s doing very, very well. Joining me today is Josiah Lippincott, one of my favorite ex accounts to follow when it comes to all things polls and election cycles. Josiah, great to see you. Thanks for being with us today. Yeah, thank you so much for having me on, Steve. This is going to be a great show. I appreciate it. Yeah, it’s an honor to have you, man. I really love your X account.

There’s a link down below for everyone to subscribe. They’re gonna, they’re gonna really enjoy it as well. Now I, you know, back in September, and I actually think this is where I, when I discovered you, you posted a very long detailed thread on X about why you think Trump is going to win. And then keep in mind, for everyone out there, keep in mind this is during all the height of the puff polls and the, and the joy, joy, joy kind of stuff going on here. And you were, you were seeing through that fog. Can you, can we start first? Can you walk us through your methodology there? Yeah.

So the easiest way to think about this is if you, you Know, past performance is the best indicator of future results. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best that we have. Right. So if you look at the 2016 and 2020 polls and you compare, and I’m not saying any one poll, I’m saying if you take the poll of polls from a big name pollster, I use 538. Most people do. Okay. If you take 538’s polling in 2020 and then you look at the final results in each of the swing states in the national popular vote, what becomes immediately apparent is that the polls vastly overestimated Joe Biden’s level of support.

Joe Biden allegedly or claimed still won the election. Right. He won, but not by as much as the polls were indicating. That’s right. So if you look at that, you say, well, that’s a very interesting phenomenon. And if you look at the 2016 polls, what you see is a similar phenomenon also occurred. Hillary was leading in the poll of polls, not any one pollster, but all of them put together, you know, or whatever metric they use that Nate Silver uses to get these big name pollsters and he averages them out and then you can see there’s a bias, a pretty decisive one.

So what I did back in September is I took that margin of error, the pro Democrat margin of error, and I applied it to all the polls that we were seeing then. And the outcome of that analysis showed that Donald Trump was decisively winning every single swing state and was basically tied in the popular vote, if not slightly ahead. And so, wow, since then, the polls have to shock absolutely no one. They’ve tightened up considerably. I just looked at the 538 average. I believe Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and I think there’s at least four of the states. And Michigan was tied.

So they say at least Wisconsin, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are tied. Michigan is like plus one for Democrats. And then Trump is leading in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. And then there’s. I’m blanking on the last one. But the point is, in all the swing states, North Carolina, yeah, Trump’s leading there. I think he’s supposedly tied in Nevada. So what I’m saying is that polls have tightened considerably since I posted that thread in September. If you apply the bias that existed last time in the polls to these numbers, Donald Trump is decisively winning. And there’s a good chance he would flip an unexpected state.

So right now, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia are the ones to watch, I think. You know, of course, maybe the polls have gotten more accurate since 2020, perhaps pollsters have been able to excise the sort of uniform bias that they demonstrate in favor of Democrat candidates when Trump is on the ticket. And the numbers we’re looking at are accurate. And it’s a toss up, but I don’t believe that. And the biggest reason why is that from 2016 to 2020, all of the pollsters got worse. Right. They became less able to successfully predict the outcome of the election.

So it seems unlikely to me that there has been a sustained effort across all pollsters to rectify that problem. And considering the extremely bizarre nature of Kamala’s candidacy for president, the ongoing structural problems faced by Joe Biden, as well as the sort of energy that Trump has and continues to grow, I think it’s just, to me, there is no question in my mind that Donald Trump is decisively winning this presidential election. I believe he’ll win the popular vote, he’ll win all the swing states and will likely flip at least one, maybe two in a blowout case, at least three unexpected states.

That’s where I think we’re standing right now. It’s so interesting because your analysis just seems to overlap in terms of the popular vote by one or two. That seems to overlap perfectly with the Gallup voter identification survey that came out. And that seems to be. Yeah, that seems to be. Most of our listeners will know that that indicator, it’s probably the single most accurate predictor of at least the popular vote last four elections. If I recall, it came within 1% of predicting that they had. They have now Republican plus three, like first time forever. Yeah. And so with you predicting Republican plus two plus one, that’s.

I mean, that’s like bullseye. Yeah. Look, again, I’m going off the numbers here. You know, my gut told me in Trump that Trump won in 2020 just based off of what I was seeing. He pulled, you know, I think way worse then than he did against Hillary. Oh, gosh. But he out. He out. He outmatched those polls. And I think, you know, so, you know, the black pillars, right. You’ve got all these people depressed. They could cheat, they could steal it. If Democrats did exactly what they did in 2020, they would lose this election. Right, right.

And if you look at the absentee voting, at the early voting, Democrats are nowhere near where they were in 2020. There’s a very real shot. I mean, I’m shocked by what I’m seeing out of these swing states. Like, you’re seeing early voting, basically, even between both parties. And I think that Republicans will continue to have an Election day advantage. I think Kamala is not doing well among black men. I do not think she’s doing well among Hispanics compared to Donald, to, you know, past performance by Democrats. You know, I don’t think Trump’s going to win the black vote.

I don’t think it’s possible, but I do think it’ll be lower than it has been. The margins. Yeah. I think 2020 was an aberration in every way. Joe Biden dropping out was a decisive admission by the Democratic Party. The results of the 2020 election were not legitimate because you can’t make sense of that. You have the greatest of all time, the man who has won more votes than anyone else and he can’t compete. Really? I thought the economy was great. I thought everything was fine. Right, Exactly. Yeah. It just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. He’s sharp as a Jack or just even, you know, Kamala’s running against Hitler, but the Washington Post refuses to endorse her.

You know. Okay, well, you know, it’s one. One or the other, you know. No, it’s like, it’s like. It’s like Donald Trump hanging out with Chuck Schumer. Known neo Nazi Chuck Schumer. That’s right. Or Biden wearing the. Wearing the Maga cap, you know. Yeah. It’s like, come on, this isn’t Hitler. I mean, Trump has, you know, a great sense of humor. I just. It’s day. It’s. It’s absurd. I think, you know, Democrats are at the point where, you know, and Kamala was caught on a hot mic talking to Kamala Harris, saying they were struggling among men, which everyone could tell.

I mean. Oh, yeah. Gretchen Whitmer. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Obama out there lecturing black men like, you need to vote for black. That’s not disaster. It’s a disaster. I, I was. I forget who I was listening to. There was some. What’s his name? Castellanos. A long time. I’m talking, going back to, you know, the Bush. I think the second. But he might have been part of the first Bush administration. But, but he was saying, you know, you. You. You could tell. You could. You could smell the decay of a campaign and, and generally campaigns have.

They have a shelf life and then they begin to kind of recede. They. If they don’t. If they’re not picking up any kind of juice or momentum, they start kind of peeling off the. These onion later layers until they get to their core and whatever their core is. And it tends to appeal to the more extreme wing of Their party. That’s where they go. And they just kind of get. Start getting ugly. And he smiled and he said, that’s basically Kamala’s campaign right now. Whereas, you know, Trump’s living his best life. He’s never been more popular.

And, yeah, I think that’s exactly right. I mean, I think Trump is, you know, the McDonald’s, you know, photos, you know, Madison Square Garden. Trump survived two assassination attempts. You’ve got Hulk Hogan ripping off a shirt at the rnc. You have massive support from Elon Musk. One of the things I want to really point out, I was talking with an intelligent friend of mine last night. There is a lack of concord among the oligarchs in America. The most powerful people in our society are not all on the Kamala train. And what I would. You know, this is sometimes called, like, maybe it’s you’re scaring you’re.

It’s the young people call it scaring the hose in the sense of you’re. You’re doing stuff that’s not normal, and it’s, like, frightening to, like, young women and to, like, the people who are, you know, supposed to, like. Everything should be normal. Right. Airdropping Kamala in 100 days out from the election was a mistake. It was a mistake. It’s not normal. It’s not democratic. You essentially get caught lying, and it’s like, okay, so maybe a lot of Democrat voters don’t care about that. People who are worth billions of dollars are paying attention, and they’re not happy.

So Jeff Bezos, and I don’t know if you saw this, his Washington Post editorial just yesterday, I did example that he used to describe the lack of faith in American media is, in order for elections to be trusted, not only must they be accurate, they need to be believed to be accurate. They need to be plausible. Yeah. That one line is a symbol. It’s a sign. That’s a shot across the bow, indicating that he believes there are some serious problems with the Democratic narrative overall. And so the failure to endorse, that’s an intentional shot. You’re letting them know we’re not happy.

So even if Kamala gets in, she has to deal not only with the huge crisis of legitimacy among Trump voters, now she has some of the most powerful people in the regime who will be looking at her with an extremely skeptical eye. And I don’t see any way she gets in without just outright fraud or electoral manipulation, which amounts to the same thing. And that’s not a sports source of legitimacy. That’s A real problem for them. And that’s a real problem Democrats don’t have a good answer for. Right. No, I can agree with you more. Let’s look at a couple of some of the states here.

Just go down the list. What, what are you seeing in Michigan? I, I got to be honest. Michigan for me is of. Of all the big seven, it’s the one that just has me the most worried, just because it seems it’s most. It’s most susceptible to some shenanigans there outside of all the others. But what are you seeing in Michigan? So if you look right now, so 538 has Michigan plus one. And when I did that analysis, I had Biden had a 5.1-point bias in the results back in 2020. So if you apply that same bias right now, Trump is winning by three or four points.

Boy. Right, Right. So that’s the numbered analysis. Based off of what I’ve seen, Trump’s winning decisively. If you go based on. What do I see on the ground? Lots of Trump support Trump signs everywhere. At one point, I would say when I was driving across the state back in August, September, I was seeing probably 50 to 1 Trump signs. And now I’d say that ratio is probably 25 or 30 to 1. Could be higher. Even the 50 to 50 to 1, in a sense of overwhelming examples of Trump support. Very low levels of people admitting that they’re voting for Kamala.

I would say actually strikingly, maybe not strikingly, there are more people willing to say they’re voting for Kamala. And I think that speaks more to just how unpopular Joe Biden was in 2020. I think there are fanatical Kamala voters. There are, there are more of them. But I don’t think she’s cutting inroads into moderates and into independent voters. I don’t see that. So if I were to go based off of what I’m seeing, without the COVID emergency, I think Trump is winning here. And if he doesn’t win, it’ll be shocking to me because it doesn’t line up with the numbers.

It’s. It doesn’t line up with my gut sense of what’s happening on the ground. And moreover, it doesn’t, you know, the prominent Democrats here are basically not campaigning. And you’re not seeing them. I mean, you are seeing the Kamala people have finally begun to, like, reach out to some of their local activists. But just the amount of mail and the billboards and the advertising, again, it’s just overwhelmingly pro Trump. Yeah. You know, he’s got money. He’s got money to spend. Like YouTube ads in Michigan. You know, I would say Trump is tied or at least is up, actually.

And Kamala is getting hammered on immigration and inflation. Yeah. And all she’s got is product 2025 and abortion stuff. So that brings out the Democrat crazies. But that’s. You can’t win with. Not going to win with that. I had a guy drive, I have some Trump signs out in front of my house. I had this boomer guy in a pickup truck run by and he’s like flipping me off as he’s like driving by our house. Old man angry. I said, look, that type is out there. Is that the majority of the electorate? No. Right. And I’ll just tell one more quick story about Michigan.

Earlier this year, I was down at the courthouse getting some paperwork done and two of the clerks behind the desk were talking to each other about expenses and cost of living. And the one woman was saying that after she pays all of her bills, pays her mortgage, buys her Internet and buys her gas, she has $20 left a week. And then she’s working in a government job, Right. Like she’s getting paid and she’s saying, I have $20 a week. And the response, another woman was like, well, maybe can you cut your cable? And the response was, that would save me $15 a month.

And TV is the only thing I have in my off time. Like, I can’t afford to live like this. No talk of Abortion or Project 2025. Both of those. Puerto Rico. Yeah. Not a word. Not a word. They’re talking about cost of living. Yeah, that’s right. That’s right. And they’re voting Trump and they’re voting. Most of them are voting, no question. Nobody’s like, oh, Joe Biden will make this better. Because things were better under Trump. They were better under Trump. That’s no way around it. There’s no way around it. And life here in kind of rust belt America in the last four years, we have had a spike in homelessness, we’ve had a spike in violent crime, we’ve had a spike in drug use.

All of these things. And people are noticing. And the thing that I see among my neighbors, among respectable middle class people, is they have all gone way. Right. Because the left is so out of control. So now you’re having real local fights about books. We’re putting in the library. The local mental health, like government sponsored mental health provider is huge into LGBT stuff, especially the trans. And parents are like, we don’t want our tax dollars going to this. And so you’re seeing. And again, I don’t see this happening for Democrats, Republicans and the right wing under Trump is making significant gains.

And you’re seeing that at all levels of society in places like Michigan. So that’s my take on this. I think Trump will win it. Do I have one more? Can I, can I go on? Can I add one more? Yeah, go, go. Man, you’re on fire. I love it. Okay, so compare the states of Michigan and Ohio between 2016 and 2020. Trump’s margin of victory in rural counties of Ohio. So the increase in Trump’s level of support in rural counties in Ohio increased across the board in every rural county and in a good portion of the suburban communities as well.

So USA Today has a map from 2020. When you look at it, the red accounting doesn’t mean that Trump won it. It means he increased his, his margin of victory or how close the election was. Like the increase in his support level. And Ohio is almost 75% deep red like increase in margin of victory everywhere. Ohio is not a swing state anymore. There’s no idea it’s in play. That’s over. It’s like Florida. Yeah. If you look at Michigan and compare the same margin, the same delta, the differential in Trump’s level of support between 2016 and 2020, a very peculiar thing happens when you look at rural counties.

Trump increases his support, but not nearly as much as he did in Ohio. Here’s the crazy thing. Michigan and Ohio are nearly identical. We have the same demographics. The same number of blacks, the same number of Protestants, same number of Catholics. We have very similar per capita gdp, similar levels of income. We have similar major industries. If anything, Ohio is a little bit wealthier. When you look at those numbers, it’s like, well, why is Michigan so different? Why are Michigan and Ohio so different? And why can you look at the border and see a decisive change in the amount of margin increase for Trump between both of these two states? And my response is that Michigan has different set of laws and different personnel running in selections.

If you held Michigan elections under Ohio’s rules with Ohio’s election personnel, Donald Trump would decisively win with the same margin of victory as Ohio. The only thing keeping Democrats even in play in the state is the fact that they control the laws regarding elections and they control the personnel. So even in light of that fact, however, I think Donald Trump is still going to win. It’s not going to be Ohio level victory. It should be, but it won’t but that indicates to me the profound corruption of our local elections. And it’s something that Republicans need to engage with decisively going forward.

Change the rules, change, make them more secure. Republicans will win every single time. Do you see? Do you see basically Trump running away with it with the Sunbelt State? So we’re looking Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina. There’s word now that I don’t know if you caught this. I’m sure you did. You’re ahead of it, ahead of me. And all this stuff that Kamala is pulling out of North Carolina. She’s pull a couple million dollars of radio ads from North Carolina. More word out today that she’s doing the same thing in Nevada. Anything from your end on that? What I’ve heard is that, and again, this is all scuttlebutt, but I think it’s accurate.

The culinary union was warning the Kamala campaign that they won’t be able to deliver the election. And so if I’m sure, you know this Las Vegas is the epicenter of Nevada elections. The biggest thing is it’s a highly transient population. It’s not always easy to track down where everybody’s going. You’re close to California. It’s a three hour drive from Southern Cal. A lot of opportunity for shenanigans. And so in 2016, the only swing state of the seven that we’ve been talking about, Nevada was the only one to go for Clinton. And it was a very narrow victory.

And could that happen again? It sounds like no is the answer so right to give credit to where credit’s due. Democrats have a lot of things still have money and power. So could they flip one of the seven and I mean like get it in their camp? Yeah, potentially. Is Nevada the most likely? Maybe. And again, Trump, I don’t think we’ll need it to win. I mean, I think if he wins the Rust Belt states, if he takes Pennsylvania, it’s over. And I don’t see any sort of inter. And I see like in Wisconsin, Wisconsin, if Trump grow the wow counties, they’re, they’re just rocking.

Yeah. If Trump, if you take that margin of error, Wisconsin had the greatest margin of error in 2020. If that happens this time, Donald Trump will crush Wisconsin by like seven points. It will go into the Ohio category. Could Chicago, could the Chicago to Milwaukee connection mediate that? Of course it could. And I would be a naive, I would have fallen out of the coconut tree and been burdened by what has been if I didn’t admit that that’s possible. Could we see a three to, are we going to see a three to four point Trump victory? I think so.

And I think, you know, there’s all this and again, I want to talk about this, lots of news stories. We won’t know the results for days at a time. There’s just so much early voting. We won’t know. Here’s my claim. We will know. On election night. We will know. Oh, wow. And I’m, I’m saying that because I think early returns are going to come out of the Rust belt states and they’re going to come out of places like New Hampshire and Virginia and it will become very clear at least. Yeah. Going to have the firewall because if Virginia goes in the, if, if New Hampshire goes, it reads the whole map.

If Minnesota goes, how do you explain if Minnesota, I think is plus 4 right now, according to, for Democrats, according to Nate Silver, what if it’s as close, what if, you know, and in 2020, the average margin, a pro Democrat margin of error was 3.9 points. Minnesota could be in play. Minnesota could be in play. And so again, maybe the pollsters have corrected everything, but if they haven’t, if, if they have cut their error rate in half, they will still, they’re still predicting Trump victory. Right, Right. That’s what I love about your analysis. So what do you have to say to those black pillars out there? You know, I now keep in mind, I think, especially on X, I think half of them are paid debt, Democrat operatives.

They sound like it. They all sound the same. And it’s just, they’ve, they’re, they’re just there to, I like to call, they’re, they’re like Denethors. You know, they pour oil over themselves, light themselves on fire and jump off a cliff. But what do you got to say to those, I mean, truly conservatives out there, but who are still, nevertheless, they’re still traumatized from 2020. They’re black pilling. What do you got to say to them? Well, there’s no point. There’s no point. You cannot control. If, you know, Kamala Harris could just say, look, I’m ignoring the results of the election and I declare myself leader for life.

Trump is Hitler. It’s over. I mean, and that’s essentially what a Kamala victory would mean. Excuse me. So my point on that is to simply point out that doesn’t matter, that’s damaging to them. There is no way to slice what’s happening now that’s good for Democrats. If they’re stuck with Kamala Harris at the helm after this absolutely disastrous campaign, you have so many problems down the line because how would she, quote, unquote win with a primarily immigrant, Hispanic, black and female vote? And let me tell you something about women. Let’s say she gets 70% of the female vote among young single women.

Okay? Are they going to go fight in the Ukraine? Are they going to go fight Iran? Are they going to go fight for Taiwan? If we have a real crisis in this country are young single women who love abortion above all else. Is that the backbone of our national. And contrast that with the people that Trump has. The SpaceX, the Teslas, the engineers, the small business owners, the military. You have people who are the backbone of our national security and our economy are all on board with Trump and telling those people, well, young women love abortion so much that we can’t have a country that’s not going to go well.

And again, I think in the end, Donald Trump is going to win white women, he’s going to win married women, he, he’s going to win white men, he’s going to make inroads, at least in terms of keeping a lot of blacks from the polls for Kamala because they’re just not, they don’t respect her. They don’t think. Yeah. And he’s getting record numbers with non white working class. It’s astonishing. Yeah. So I think again, I’m never depressed. It doesn’t matter how you slice this. We can come out on top and there will always be things to do.

And if Democrats want to throw their cards on the table and say, this is a one party state, we’re in charge and elections don’t have any meaningful, I’ll sit there, nod and keep on chugging because that’s dangerous for them and we gotta fight communism where we find it. And that’s what these people want. We don’t have a choice. Exactly. So that’s my. I love it. Josiah, where can people follow you? Hey, follow me on x@jlippincott underscore and then you can find me on substack@lippincott.substack.com I post a lot of my stuff there, including an aggregation from the other places I publish, including American Greatness.

And I’ve published chronicles and. Oh man, awesome. The Federalist link below. Wonderful. Absolutely. Yeah. Awesome. Steve, thank you so much. Yo, it’s my pleasure, gang. Of course we don’t want to be complacent, but we don’t want to come close to dooming either. We don’t doom. We do. That’s right Doom you do. So make sure to get out there. Do everything you need to do to make this the single most epic election in decades. Josiah, thank you so much for putting this all in perspective. We’re gonna have you back again real soon, Steve. I appreciate it. You have a great one.

You too.
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