➡ The U.S. economy is facing a rising inflation rate, which is a critical number that could impact your money, savings, and future. Despite claims of a strong economy, the inflation rate is increasing, and this could be a problem as it affects monetary and investment policies. The bond market is also showing signs of inflation, with bond yields rising rapidly. Despite these indicators, the Federal Reserve still plans to cut rates, which could potentially fuel inflation further.
➡ The economy is showing signs of slowing down, with potential inflation on the horizon. However, the incoming administration and new policies could stimulate economic growth. Investments in gold, silver, and Bitcoin are rising, indicating concerns about inflation. Despite this, there are ways to benefit from the situation, such as using long-term debt and investing in assets that increase in value with inflation, like gold, Bitcoin, silver, and real estate.

What if I told you the most important number guiding the U.S. economy and monetary policy right now is quietly rising and no one’s talking about it? Now you’ve been told everything’s under control, that the economy is strong and the worst is behind this, but what if the numbers they’re feeding us are fake? And the one number that really matters is moving in a direction that could change everything for your money, your savings, and your future. Now in this video I’m going to expose the truth behind these so-called strong numbers. Reveal why this critical metric is rising fast and show you what it means for the economy, your wallet, and the global financial system.

Now the signals are already flashing red from the bond market to gold to silver, but most people are completely missing them. Now real quick, my name is Mark Moss. I’ve been a tech-focused VC investor for over a decade. I’m a partner at a leading tech VC hedge fund. I coach business owners on investing and I’m sharing some of the same data that we’re using to make long-term decisions with you for free. So let’s go. All right, now the critical number that’s rising, the critical number that we were told is going down, but it’s going back up of you probably guessed it by now.

We’re talking about inflation and inflation is creeping back up. Now they don’t want you to see this. There’s a lot of ambiguity in the numbers, but let’s dig into this a little bit and it’s worse than you think. So we can see some of the headlines are starting to pop back up. This one just popped up a day or two ago, that inflation progress, meaning they’re trying to get inflation back down, the progress has stalled out in October. So the numbers just came in and it wasn’t good, but December, the Fed is still expected to cut rates.

So as they’re cutting rates, this is pushing inflation higher, but the problem is the progress of getting inflation down is bad. We just saw an election decided and one of the big things was inflation. People can’t afford groceries. There’s a big hot topic and they want the new administration to get this fixed, but how can they if the Fed is going to continue to cut rates? Now we can see some of the exact data right here. It says here that the CPI rose 2.6 in October. Core inflation is one of the main numbers that they’re looking at here.

It excludes volatile food and energy prices. Of course, the only things that we need, we need food, we need energy. Everything else is secondary, but it excludes those things and it increased 3.3% over the last 12 months after rising 3.3% in September. So it’s stalled out. It’s hitting the same numbers. They’re not making positive progress on that. Inflation came in a bit higher than we expected in October. So just like publicly traded companies, the Fed, the government, the BLS, they project where they want these numbers to be on track. And when they come in higher, whether they miss the numbers, whether the high or low, it’s a big problem.

Now we can see sort of back to this core CPI. So you can sort of see what this is working with. So here’s all items. We have food right here. Energy went way down supposedly, I guess, because my electricity bill and my gas bill dropped. Just kidding. They didn’t for me, probably not you either. And here we have all items minus food and it just is the core. So here we are at 3.3%. And really to look at a long-term chart, this is pretty important, right? The goal is to get inflation down. Here we were in April 2021 at over 8%.

And we were trending down like this is pretty good, but you can see right here, we’ve been completely stalled out. Now this is a problem because as I said, all monetary policy, all this is based, your investment policy, all that is based off of this number. Okay, now where are we starting to see that this may even be a bigger problem? So looking at what the inflation number came in last month, that’s what we call a lagging indicator. That’s what already happened, but we want to know where is it going. And so we look for a couple of signs.

One of those is the bond market. Now the bond market is telling us something’s going on and we can see right now that bonds are moving higher. I’m going to break this down for you, but here we see that the bond market since September is just cranking higher. Now, this is a really big move in a short period of time, which is why I like to show you the charts so you can start to sort of see this. So since September, we’ve gone from 3.6% on the 10 year US treasury up to 4.5% from 3.6 to 4.5, almost an entire point move in just about two months, which is a massive move.

Now, why is that happening? Well, I saw this, this is sort of what sparked the inspiration for this video. This came out on Twitter, was it today or yesterday here? And this says that the Feds, Goolsbee, the Fed has to figure out why the 10 year is rising and they need to keep an eye on the long-term rate. So the Fed has to figure out why. Why are bond yields rising? Well, what a crazy question to ask. Let me break it down for you. Now, as a matter of fact, it’s not just me that has this secret inside information.

This is like from Investopedia right here, yields and prices. So here’s how this works, what they are and how they work. So every finance major can tell you about the seesaw effect of prices and yields, except for the Fed. They don’t know why they’re going up, but apparently every finance major can tell you this, economic indicators and they move in opposite directions. So price and yield go like this. All right. So when prices go up, yields come down. And this suggests that investors believe inflation will move lower. So when yields go down, they think that inflation will go lower.

But I just showed you that rates are going up, not down, and they’re going up in a really rapid rate. So what does that mean? When prices fall, yields move higher and then they’re trying to figure out why. Well, supposedly every finance major already knows this. And now you know that too. And so what this is telling us is that major inflation is coming. Why? Well, we’re going to get into that in a minute. Here’s one of my favorite macro analysts, Luke Grauman. You’ve seen him on my channel. We do interviews together.

I referenced his work quite a bit. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which I just showed you, is rising because the Fed messed up by trying to be tough guys on inflation like Volcker when the US government had the debt GDP of Argentina. So what he’s saying is that the Fed messed up when they tried to tighten inflation, but they didn’t do enough. The 10-year yield is saying there’s either going to be too much net US Treasury supply, or there’s going to be high inflation. All right, so this is what it’s telling us.

There’s going to be high inflation, and that’s because of the supply that’s coming. All right, so now that we sort of understand that, we have to understand that now when you look at it under that light, and then you look at the fact that Jerome Powell still wants to continue lowering rates, we might have a problem. As a matter of fact, this might be feeding the flames. This might be pouring gasoline on the fire, and so the Fed wants to still cut rates. Now, we can see this right here. Powell says the Fed will likely cut rates cautiously, given persistent inflation.

So even though we have inflation, that’s not going away, even though we’re not even going anywhere in the right direction to the goal that the Fed wants to be in, he still wants to cut rates, which will push rates higher, which is exactly why the bond yields are screaming this, and we have other assets. We’ll pull up some indicators in a second. Now, you see me use this tool quite a bit, the CME Fed watch right here, and this basically predicts what they think the Fed will do at the next meeting, and what we can see, there’s a 60% chance right here, 60% chance of the Fed raising rates at the next meeting.

So that means most likely this is going to happen. All right, so we have this situation where everyone’s telling us, all the signs are telling us that inflation is coming. The Fed is basically telling us more cuts are coming. The CME Fed watch tool is telling us more rates are coming, and the Fed is kind of stuck. I’ve been talking about this now for years. They’re stuck. If they don’t lower rates, and even if it were to raise rates, then this is a recession on the economy. Now, I didn’t get into this data because this would be too long of a video, but we’re starting to see that like all the job numbers, the unemployment numbers, they’re all being revised, and it’s looking like the economy is stalling out pretty bad.

If you want me to do a video on that, let me know in the comments, we can break all that down. So we’re already teetering on the edge of recession. Remember, the Fed’s trying to stick this off landing. And so if they raise rates, that’s guaranteed. But if they lower rates, that means more inflation. So which do they choose? Well, I believe that they’re going to choose inflation. There’s no way around it. Inflation is coming. And this is the gas. So besides what the Fed is going to do, we have even more gas coming.

So what do we have? We have a potentially really strong economy coming. I believe there’s a strong economy coming in. I’m extremely optimistic about this. The new administration coming in with the dream team, we have the new Dodge office, right? The Department of Government Efficiency with Elon Musk and Vivek. We have all kinds of new policies coming into place. And I believe these things could unleash the American economy. We have a plan to make the government more efficient. We have a plan to repeal regulations. We have a government to unleash the energy in the economy.

And I believe this could really ignite the economy. I can already see it in a week or two, just from people that I’ve been talking to. The economy seems to be moving. The thing is when the economy gets booming, which is great for us, that means that we’re making more money and we’re spending more money, which means more consumer spending, which means as we spend more and make more, that means, yes, more inflation. All right, so we have to understand how this works. Now, we can see this already in some of the charts.

So for example, look what gold has been doing. Gold is telling us the same thing the bond market is telling us. From January of this year, gold is up. It was high as $2,800 right here. And it’s down just a little bit, but of course, assets go up and down. There’s no straight line here. And so we’ve been anywhere from 25% up to 38% return on the year. I mean, imagine gold doing 38% in a single year. It’s obviously telling us something is going to happen. Now, we can see that experts are saying that in October, gold surged past $2,700, like I said, about almost $2,800 per ounce.

Experts link this rally to inflation. Duh, right? To inflation concerns. Aggressive central bank buying and rising global tension. So I’ve talked about this all the time. The world’s breaking apart. Nations aren’t trusting each other. Central banks are buying it, but inflation concerns. The precious metals rise signals deeper worries about inflation, even after two years of fed rate hikes. And so gold is telling us that inflation is coming. We can see silver is telling us the exact same thing. Here we have silver is a little bit more volatile. So it’s telling us even more since January of this year, we can see that silver is up 50 has been up as high as 55%.

It’s right now about 35% up on the year at 30 US dollars per ounce. And then one of my favorite inflation indicators as well is Bitcoin. It’s showing us the same thing. Year to date, Bitcoin’s up 120%. They’re all telling us the exact same thing. And that is massive amounts of inflation coming. Okay, so is this all bad news or is there some good news? Like what are we supposed to do about this? Well, let me tell you, it’s going to be bad for most people who aren’t paying attention to this, but it can be good.

We can use this to our advantage. So let me break that down. Before I break that down, I just want to tell you real quick about a sponsor for today’s video. And that is US gold mining. Now they’re listed on the NASDAQ with the ticker symbol USGO. And while gold is ripping, it looks like the gold producers like USGO, they’re about to finally start catching up. Now, US gold mining owns a project that has estimated mineral resources of 6.5 million ounces of gold resources equivalent to the indicated category and an additional 4.2 million in the inferred category.

And its market cap is currently about 108 million USD, which means that US gold mining is trading at about 40% below its all-time high. But with the economy moving higher, rates dropping and pushing inflation back higher again, gold is moving back up. Another big catalyst for USGO is also the greatest source of potential appreciation in shareholder value. And it comes from the new Trump administration, and it’s the attitude towards the beautiful state of Alaska where USGO is. Now, Trump said that he would ensure Alaska received more money from defense investments.

In addition, he said that there would be more mining. He said, quote, during my second term, we’re going to continue to fight for Alaska like never before. We’ll ensure that the gas line project gets built to provide affordable energy to Alaska and allies all over the world. Now, the CEO of US gold mining, Tim Smith, he came from Newmont. Now, Newmont, if you’ve heard of it, it’s a hundred-year-old gold producer, the largest gold mining company in the world. And before Newmont, he worked for Goldcorp, one of Canada’s biggest gold producers.

And before joining Goldcorp, he worked for Kaminate Gold Corporation. And while he was there, he helped discover the coffee deposit in the Yukon. He advanced the resources until Goldcorp acquired it for about 520 million Canadian. It was one of the most legendary violets of the past decade. And so his experience advancing a project is what’s critical here. Now, what have you been exposed to these circumstances all coming together at the same time? The incoming administration is pro mining in Alaska like never before. US gold mining owns a gold copper silver project where the prior owner had a market cap of about 125 million at when gold prices were much lower.

And with the same project right now, the same assets, USGO has a market cap of only 108 million. Now, US gold mining, again, NASDAQ USGO is down by about 40% from its all-time high. So you might want to check it out, add it to your list of ones that you want to just take a look at. All right, now, what are we going to do about this? Like I said, for people that aren’t paying attention, this could be really bad. Inflation steals your purchasing power, but we can use it to our advantage.

And I don’t want to sound callous, but we have no other choice. We can’t beat them, we have to join them. Okay, so what are we going to do? Inflation is returning, and it’s going to continue through the rest of the decade. There’s a lot of reasons I’ve made a bunch of videos about this, but I believe it’s returning. So I believe the Fed is fueling this fire and will continue to do so. Yes, unfortunately, the new administration, they’re not really going to help it. I think it’s going to continue going on.

Again, now, we can use this to our advantage. We can look at things in life as problems. We can look at them as solutions to the problems, right? We can look at them, things are happening to us, or they happen for us. Again, not to be callous for people that aren’t paying attention, but this is what it is. Now, how do we do that? One, we can use long-term debt. I talk about this. In America, we have the benefit of having like 30-year mortgages, which is amazing, but all over the world, we have the ability to borrow at low rates and lock in long-term debt.

So that’s one way we can add catalysts to that, because then the inflation destroys that debt, which is why the government wants the inflation. Also, we can be hedged with assets. So assets that are sensitive to inflation, gold, Bitcoin, silver, I just showed you three of those, real estate is also another one. So we want to buy assets, scarce assets, energy intensive assets that are going to go up with inflation. We don’t want to be holding cash. And then if you want to know even more assets you should buy, then the next place I’d look is what I call the investing black hole.

And if you want to know what the investing black hole is, then you might want to watch this video right here. All right. That’s what I got. Hope you liked the video. To your success. I’m out. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.