They Just Gave It 85 Odds Of Happening In 2024 | The Economic Ninja

Everybody, economic ninja here. I hope you’re doing great. We’re going to talk about recession. We’re going to talk about recession. Ods now just hit 85% for 2024. This has not happened since the great financial crisis. And it’s funny, you wonder how far they could kick the can down the road. But when you talk about they, who are they? Right. Well, in this story, it’s David Rosenberg, right, an economist.

But there’s also those they that are the public, the economy themselves, the people that buy and sell that do things that work or they don’t work. And the reason why that can gets kicked down the road is honestly because of a lack of understanding or knowledge. Now, three years ago, almost four years ago, I came out and started a YouTube channel and said, I’m going to walk you through the cycles of an economic crash, a build up and a crash.

And when I started, it had already started crashing. I know it sounds crazy. The crash started in 2019, very similar to when I started selling my houses in mid 2005. And it still took until 2008 for the public to wake up and go, oh, crap, there’s a crash. Why? Because most of them lost their job. Now, most people are working two jobs right now, and there are companies like Cisco that are laying off thousands of people, Google, tens of thousands of people.

We are in this myths. Amazon, all those big companies, people now going, oh, crap, we’re now there. Now, why did I start the channel four years ago and tell you it’s crashing right then? It’s because it was. And you need to realize that you got to do something now, right? Today’s the day. If you don’t take action today and you wait till tomorrow, then you’ve lost out on today’s spoils, today’s gains, today’s savings, today’s understanding.

I hope people understand that all of these things build ups and busts take a while. And now we’re here. Congratulations. We’ve made it. How many people started watching this channel when it was under 50,000 subscribers? I’m just curious. Say I am. I’m just so curious. And the reason why is because people come and people go. But the strongest ones, the ones with the fortitude, the understanding, the ability to think outside the box in something bigger than them, are the ones that are going to win in this crisis.

There are a lot of people that are addicted to doom and gloom. I’m not. I use the truth, the reality of what’s going on to make money. And part of making money is saving money. Now, back in 2001, I was called crazy because I was buying up real estate hand over fist while we were going into a correction. While interest rates were plunging down because of the. com crisis, people were losing their jobs and we came off of a ten year bull market from 1994.

Not ten year, but seven years. Something like that. I was crazy then. I’m crazy now. Well, good news. How many of you are crazy right now? How many of you are told all the time that you’re crazy by your friends and family because everything’s fine? Cool type one. If you’re that person, I’m that person. So now let’s read this story. This is out of, what is it? Business Insider and it’s entitled the US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the great financial crisis.

Economist David Rosenberg says. It says a recession is likely to hit the US economy in 2024. Remember, we’re talking about the definition of recession. Two or more quarters of consecutive drops in the GDP. All right, we are already there. I don’t care what Joe Biden wants to change the definition of recession because we were in a recession and just recently we had a pop, a short pop, because we’re panicking and building factories for semiconductors, because we’re afraid China is going to move into Taiwan and because we’re spending so much money on other countries’wars.

It’s absolutely insane. We’re not taking care of our homeless here. We’re not taking care of our infrastructure, our freeways, all that stuff. What we’re doing is sprinkling a little bit of debt forgiveness on the oldest, slowest paying debt users for student loan debt. And that caused our GDP to pop. Our m two money supply is collapsing. Our money printing is accelerating. We are moving into a slight bout of hyperinflation.

Get ready for this, as a matter of fact, on the next channel. And I please ask you to go over there and check it out. It’s called real estate ninja. I’m going to do a story about how go figure inflation came in hot, hotter than expected in January. This proves to you that the Fed cannot lower rates. They’re going to a little bit. It’s politically motivated, but they’re going to be shooting up.

This is not the market to be buying homes in now. Some of us have to buy a home. I have to live in a house. You have to live in a house. Either I’m dumping a ton of money or rent, or I’m buying a house. Calculated bets derisking of your purchases are the way to go right now. And then you’re going to be backing the truck up at the end of this year, going into 2025, especially as this election cycle goes through.

It says here the economic indicator, which Rosenberg calls the full model, suggests there is an 85% chance of recession striking within the next twelve months. That’s the model’s highest reading since the financial crisis in 2008. The model is based on a working National Bureau of Economic Research paper and consists of the financial conditions indexes, the debt service ratio, foreign term spreads and the level of the yield curve.

Rosenberg said this economic model has superiority, superiority over other models due to its history of providing a timely warning of recessions without firing any false signals since 1999. He noted that in early 2023, this model suggested only a 12% chance of recession, while the yield curve indicator said that the odds of recession were 50% at the time. Now check this out. Let me see if I could blow this up.

This is a great chart, actually. You’re not going to let me. All right, so I can show you this chart showing the spike in the year 2000, in the year 2007. And now look at it right now. Look at the red. That’s amazing. So what? The year 2000 right here, 2007 in the middle and now, right? And look at how perfect it is. So he says the full model predicted the soft landing we saw in 2023, but now is saying that for 2024, recession probabilities have highly elevated.

The model calls into question the growing narrative that the economy is about to pull off a soft landing or no landing scenario this year. I completely do not believe in that. He says our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level, Rosenberg said. He said if a recession did materialize, it would probably be disastrous for the stock market. I completely agree.

And remember, again, we’re just talking about a definition. That’s it. A recession. People are already being laid off. All right? People are already having to slow their spending, okay? I don’t care. I mean, I do care how much money we’re sending to Ukraine and all these other countries that we need to be taking care of ourselves right now. We’re collapsing. Our economy is collapsing. We’re losing the dollar trade standard.

We’re losing our morals. We’re losing everything, okay? We need to be focusing on us right now. As firefighters, we’re taught to save the firefighter first on scene if there’s a problem, because if the firefighters aren’t safe, who’s going to save everybody else, right? Well, we need to start thinking about that in terms of America. Again, this is a definition. Two or more consecutive quarters of lower GDP growth, and we’re getting all this fluff that’s causing the GDP just recently to pop up.

The fact is, every single person, everyone is having to make concessions in their monthly budgets, in their lifestyle. Okay, we’re in recession. But like what Rosenberg says, in 2024, when it’s officially announced, then all the people that called you crazy will start talking about it at lunch or in dinner parties, and it will become well known and it will move into panic. Panic. To the downside, people start to sell stocks, all this crazy stuff.

And meanwhile, everybody that was watching this channel, and I thank you so much. You’re like the greatest family members ever. Coolest friends ever. Like, anytime I meet you in public, anywhere I go now in the world, I’m just stoked to meet you. I’m sure if any of you guys have met me in public, you know what I’m talking about, because I want to hang out with smart people.

And smart doesn’t mean the size of your pocketbook. Intelligence is not measured in your wealth. It only materializes in wealth and other good things over time. Once you wake up and you go, hey, this is nuts, and you start to do something different, life changes. And those are the people I want to hang out with because that’s the only way we get our country back, is to band together and get the riches back.

I’m going to go over and do a video on the real estate ninja. If you could follow me over there, it’ll probably be on. I’m going to race to see how fast I could do this. And that story is going to be about the inflation numbers that are coming in a lot hotter than everything. And this is a story out of CNBC, and I want to share it with you guys.

If you guys don’t mind jumping over there and hitting the subscribe button and the thumbs up. Let’s talk right there. I bet you I have this thing ready in two minutes. I got to go, got to go. I’m going. Race me. .

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