The Worst of All Worlds

➡ Bob Kudla from Trade Genius predicts a tough patch in the stock market till Easter, largely due to factors like Janet Yellen’s bond-selling strategy causing money to flow out of the stock market and changing volatility indices. A negative market trend, termed ‘the Grinch effect’ may also contribute to this. He suggests the safest investments might be with uranium and large cap healthcare.
➡ The discussion revolves around the current challenging market conditions, suggesting investing in inverse ETFs, preserving cash and large cap healthcare companies, amidst possible declining stocks and bonds. Significant implications for the banking and commercial real estate sectors are discussed due to the doubling of rates and high vacancies. China’s deteriorating economic state is highlighted, with increasing unemployment and inevitable failure foreseen due to its dependency on exports, lack of internal resources and strategic complications.
➡ The speaker believes that the stock market will face a significant correction by Easter due to various aligning factors. He warns of the need for extreme caution and suggests some stocks to consider including SARK, NVDS, and TBT while urging traders to trade strategically, predicting quick, strong drops in the market. They also discuss potential rate cuts by the Fed, the potential impact of ETFs on Bitcoin, and caution to adopt a more prudent economic lifestyle given the unstable environment.

Hey, it’s Dan. Welcome back. You’re watching. I allegedly, and by popular demand, I got Bob Kudla from trade genius here with me. And Bob made a bunch of predictions over the course of the last couple months as far as where the market was going to go. And he’s been spot on. But he also said that things are going to run into a bumpy patch after Martin Luther King day and until Easter.

So, Bob, thank you so much for being here. I am absolutely thrilled to get you here before the doomsday prediction. But the worst of all worlds is what you said we should call this video because that’s where we’re headed. And I’m like, wow, that is the greatest title ever for a video. Yeah. Far be from influencers to have a doomsday meme, but this one actually is for real.

And we’re setting up for, I think I told Dan this last year, too. Christmas, Santa is going to show up. And then after Martin Luther King day, the market is going to have a really rough patch until Easter. In fact, the first couple of days of this year, it looked like it was going to start early yesterday. Two days ago, the market popped up a little bit. But after we get past the Martin Luther King holiday, a lot of things happen.

If you guys just bear with me, I’ll tell you why these things aren’t know. I may be a trade genius, but I’m not prophetic. These things, there’s footprints in the sand here. So you have a situation where Janet Yellen is going to have to sell a lot of bonds and she’s been cheating on the way she’s been selling, and she’s going to have to do it the right way going forward.

And that takes money out of the stock market, number one. Number two, the volatility index is where companies that trade use to assess risk, has a kind of a change in character between February and April, and that causes liquidity to come out of the market as well. The comps on companies first quarter, which is fourth quarter and year end, is a concessional period where a lot of times they’ll throw a lot of balance sheet stuff out, make more conservative predictions, and it causes the market to be on its heels a little bit.

And that comes up starting in the next two or three weeks. And then finally the fourth year of an election of a first term president. January and February are always weak, and it started that way. And then finally, there’s a correlation out there that starts with the three days prior to Christmas and the three days after Christmas they call it the Grinch effect, and it was a positive grinch.

And when you have a positive grinch, 18 out of the last 21 times, you have a negative market for the year. And the negative market is a lot of times, is double digits. We have people walking by in front of us doing goofy things. No, but you’re also the only guy that would be able to remember those stats. I think I’m good with stats and remembering stuff. You’re just at this stuff.

You’re so good at keeping track of all this stuff. Well, it’s important, because if you get the macro right and then you get the right sectors, you make money. And then we just use our algorithm. I want to say this is hard. The hard part is believing what you’re seeing. So that’s why we wrote algorithms, so that we don’t trust our own instincts. And that’s been working really well.

So we’re comfortable with our approach. If we’re wrong, we don’t care because our algorithm will tell us to stay in the trades, but it’s not looking good. So basically, is it a sell it all approach and be in cash? Is that what you’re saying? Yeah. The problem this time is usually you can cycle out of stocks into the bond market, but the bond market is going to be the reason why the stock market is going to sell off.

So you’re going to get probably a bump up in rates. And right now, the correlation is when rates rise, stock market falls, oil goes with it. But oil is having a bit of a trouble here now, too, because we’re starting to get that situation where there’s too much oil out there and it’s seasonally weak. January and February, seasonally week for oil. So we’re not going to get a good guy there.

So the way I’ve been protecting myself is that we went into the year with shipping companies, healthcare, energy, and they all rocked. Yeah, you called shipping at our last video and said that shipping was going to take off. And a lot of people that took advantage of that really rode that up. Yeah, you should have all got double digit gains on that. It’s playing itself out now. So we’re pulling back and we’re selling as things are hitting our stops.

But the only safe havens that we potentially see out there is uranium. It still lights out. Trade, it’s a grinder. And then probably large cap health care might be the only place you’re going to be safe. Other than that, it’s going to be really a really dicey market. It’s going to really annoy a lot of people because you’re going to lose money in the stock market, there’s money in the bond market, and gold and silver and oil aren’t going to protect you.

And bitcoin just had a big run and they’re not going to be immune to the liquidity because everybody’s front running these etfs that are coming out. And once those etfs are announced, then you typically have a sell the news event and then they’re susceptible to liquidity poles because they’re not an entity in of itself. Even though they don’t have liabilities, they won’t be able to avoid a massive selling in the market.

We think it’s going to be next 60 days is going to be pretty dicey. There’ll be trades in there and that’s when our service usually shines. Okay, Bob runs trade genius. And Bob, since right before thanksgiving, set up a web page where you can save a huge amount of money if you go to danlovestrading. com. And I’ll leave the link below, but you can get a bundle package and discounts to take advantage of Bob’s different programs, from very simple to larger programs where you get access to Bob and there’s chat room and things like that that you can take advantage of.

Again, danlovestrading. com. So right mean you really think this is it? This is going to be the switch that’s going to flip and things are going to take a turn for the worst no matter what they do, is what you’re saying? Yeah. What’s. Because of what they do and they have no choice but to do it. So it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the market.

People are going to get really scared, and then we’ll come into April and then there’s going to be a in the market again. So it’s going to work like a sine wave. And if I can make one point clear, a lot of guys that have joined the last couple of months, actually from the conversation I’m having, you guys go direct to my site. If you do, let Matt know when you come on board that you came from Dan’s site so that you can get the best discount.

So I can let Dan know that people are interested in what we’re doing. Yeah. I constantly plead with Bob to do. Yeah, let them know. If you don’t go through danlivestrading. com and you go through trade genius. And I love your website because it does have all the information, all the details and everything to it. But let them know always that Dan from. I allegedly sent you. Yeah, people do.

But anyway, I just want to make that point because people don’t follow directions. Neither do not. So you don’t think tech is immune right now? The only thing in tech that’s working right now is you got Nvidia and super micro. That’s flying because the CES, even Apple, couldn’t even hold one day of gains. So we think once that story is out, they’ll probably top and that’ll roll the market down.

We’re losing the magnificent seven is really what holds the market higher. And as some of these big names start to falter, it becomes self fulfilling prophecy to the downside. Interesting. Okay, so you don’t think gold and silver are going to be the safe haven? No, they don’t. In fact, two weeks ago, I started actually pulling some of my gold and silver miners off the table until the fed is forced to intervene.

See, what’s happening now is that we’re going to have to sell so many bonds that the banks and the private markets aren’t going to be able to absorb it. And then once the Federal Reserve has to come back in the market and start buying these bonds and reliquifying the banks, then gold and silver will have its. I don’t, I didn’t feel like personally waiting three or four months to have dead money because there’s some better opportunities out there.

And for those who trade with us already, and those who may be desire to trade with us after this conversation, there are going to be trades for us. In this down cycle, there are three or four stocks and etfs that do really well in this environment as they play themselves out. As you know, if you’re already a subscriber, the trade force indicator we call the worm is this absolutely killer.

And it’ll keep you on the right side of the trades. It’ll put you in setups that you won’t believe will work, but will work. And we’ll be using those to identify these inverse etfs. That’ll play itself out really well. Okay, I know what an inverse ETF is, but to let people know this is an ETF that you buy exchange traded fund, that is basically you’re betting that things are going to go in a negative direction.

And if they go in a negative direction, you make money on a negative ETF, correct? That’s correct. And there’s non leveraged and there’s leverage and there’s ultra leveraged etfs. So depending on the circumstance, will be what we’ll pick. And there’s some great ones out there that respond well into an environment where stocks go down and bonds go down. And so we’ll have you positioned for those. Okay. You can recommend some of those, too.

So right now, the one thing that you always do is you always recommend stocks, but you’re telling people to batten down the hatches. And what does somebody do if they’ve got their 401 and their IRA that’s got loaded with stocks right now? Do they sell and just keep the cash position, or what do they do? They talk to their financial advisor? What do you recommend that people do? They’re in that position.

Yeah, I’ll just tell you what I did. So in my long term accounts, I’m 35% cash now. I tilt it more towards large cap healthcare companies, and then everything else that I own pays a dividend or has a weekly option that I can sell against in my trading account. I’m really light right now, so I’m anticipating this move. And the market hasn’t done much over the last two weeks, even though it’s been grinding down and grinding up.

It’s not a big market to make too much money. Like, my personal portfolio is up 1. 42% for the year, which is pretty good for the week and a half that the market has been open. But it’s not like you could throw darts at the market and make money. So what I would say is, I’d have a really hard conversation with your financial advisor, and I would ask them to look at the environment where the Federal Reserve, I mean, the treasury has to sell $6 trillion in bonds and who’s going to buy those bonds, and if yield goes up, what’s going to happen to my portfolios? And I would say, how are you going to change this mix? And a lot of these guys are just stuck.

They have, well, if you go out of stocks, you go into bonds. They don’t want you in cash because they can’t make money on you in cash. So you’re going to have to really work them pretty hard. Or if they don’t do that, say, okay, I want my stop out prices. If it gets below certain levels, what am I getting out of? Because, look, you have a whole year to pay taxes on gains.

Yes. And what I’ve noticed is that the first of this year, a lot of professional investors sold a lot of stocks right out of the gate. And that just tells me that they’re ready with the panic button to bail out this year. You don’t go into a year where you’re supposed to have $2 trillion in positive flows, and the first four days of the year you have pretty strong selling.

So that just tells you it should inform you. And like I said, you have the grinch that was saying they’re pumping before the new year. You get the first five days of the year with negative, which is negative. And if January ends up negative, but guarantees a negative year, so why should you sit for a whole year and watch and hope Versus just, hey, get some dry powder and let some of these dumps happen.

And then you can buy back in at lower price. You don’t have to sell everything. I can’t sell everything. The tax bill will be too high for me on my biggest account, which is not an IRA. I don’t feel like taking a tax hit on some of these stocks. So I’ll sell calls, I’ll write some puts, I’ll do some of those things. And they’re all dividend payers, which again, Bob can explain how to do this.

And regardless of where the market’s going, Bob makes money on thing. Two things to think about. The banks right now are having a come to Jesus moment, to say the least, because there’s so much money right now in the first half of the year, there’s half a trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans that are getting called in. And these people cannot refinance this. The rates are doubled from when they did it before.

You’re seeing the vacancies down 20% across the country. Right now. It’s 19. 6% is the worst we’ve seen it ever. In the worst economic downturn, it was at 18. 8%. So now we’re seeing it much higher. And you’re going to see more banks go out of business, more commercial real estate companies go out of business. You’re going to see more commercial real estate be given back to the bank, and they’re not in the commercial real estate business, guys.

So there’s going to be a lot of things that are going to be challenging for the bank. And then you get into the real estate. My buddy that runs the foreclosure company is seeing a complete and utter increase in the activity with the foreclosures right now. He was doing four foreclosures a week and he did eleven yesterday that he posted. And beyond that, he’s like, dan, this is nothing.

Wait till you see what I end my week with. So this activity, this negative activity, is going to get busier. Yeah, and you can’t repurpose some of these buildings either. So people say we’ll just convert an office tower into. It’s just the way they’re constructed. They don’t lend themselves to becoming housing stock, and so maybe 20% of it can be repurposed. We’re going to have ghost towers for decades.

You’re going to see what they’re doing in China. You’re going to see in the US where they’re going to take these, some of these skyscrapers down, because they’re just going to be just too dangerous to have up. You see that in Vegas too, where they will have a casino that goes out of business, and it’s cheaper to have the vacant land for the taxes and rip the building down and sell off the parts than it is to pay the taxes on an empty casino.

Silvergate or what is it the one right going into imprim. The one that’s terrible. That one is. They’re ripping it down right now. Last time I drove through Vegas, it was awful. Are you being the one with the roller coaster? No, that’s buffalo bills. The next one in. Okay, which is one gold strike. Gold strike, which turned into terribles, went out of business. Now they’re ripping the whole building down.

So going to have a nice gas station there. But you mentioned China. You think that China is about to tank, don’t you? Yeah, it’s inevitable. It’s physics. It’s funny, I’ve been talking about China going bust for the last four or five years, and now you got guys like Grant Cardone discovering that China is going to go bad. It’s bad news. Over there they have a controlled capital market.

So if they open their capital markets up, money will just leave the country and they’ll implode faster. But now they just have no good place for we’re trade flows are know Mexico and Vietnam and India are the great recipients for our cold shoulder to China. And what that’s causing is unemployment is rapidly increasing. There you have youth unemployment that is approaching 30% and they don’t have an answer for you.

It’s funny because they’re like, well, there are communist country to make you do things. Well, one thing they can’t do is they can’t make you non indifferent. And these people just shut down. They may be forced to do things. When you force people to do things, you don’t get Max productivity. And so they’re going to be losing their edge in a lot of ways. Belton Road has been an utter disaster.

And the more hyperbolic Xi gets, the more people are pulling back from him. And if you notice now there’s basically a ring around China from Japan all the way through to India where they have, I would say, strategic competitors defending their space. And they’re all in the US orbit and all of China’s goods move through that environment. So they’re kind of stuck. Look, they can’t feed themselves, they don’t have enough internal energy resources.

And so what that usually means if you can’t export your way out of it, you’re a failed state. And I consider China a failed state. It’s just that it’s going to take a couple more years for it to happen. Unless we have a famine, if we have a failed crops in China, then it’s all bets off because you remember, Argentina just shifted to the right and they’re bailing out of China’s sphere of influence back to the USS.

And that’s one of their big graineries. Fascinating. Fascinating. Now don’t forget, guys, take a look@danlovestrading. com. I will leave this link for you guys below as well. But you can get a hold of Bob at trade genius and have know, get access to him, get access to his platform and the chat room and everything else. And you can get in here or you can buy it all and get in with Bob.

But a few more things. Let’s close this out with. It’s just wild. I mean, you’ve never been this cut and dry. And so you really think that this is it, that we’re going to see a dark period? Not for the end of days or anything like that. For the stock market, you’re going to see a down period is what you think is coming? Yeah, I mean, too many things are lined up.

I’d be incredibly surprised if they’re able to carry the market through to Easter without a significant market correction and what I mean, significant double digit. So usually the move from October to the 20 December was an unprecedented move up and almost kind of like a blow off top. And so that move usually gets retraced back about 78% to 80%. And that should bring the markets down. You’re looking at spy between 330 and 370, and right now it’s trading at 470.

So there’s a potential even of 2020 5%. I’m not making that market call. I really don’t care. So my point is, if I’m wrong, we’ll be long. So what I’m saying is that the macro environment is telling you that you need to be extremely cautious here. And we’ve been pretty right on, on know, from September into Halloween we said scary, scary. Right on this. The other thing is that the Fed’s going to cut rates six times this year.

Do you see that happening? Probably not. Probably three times, unless we really follow up a cliff. The Fed follows the market, so they’re going to be dragged kicking and screaming into rate cuts. The market’s predicting six. That’s another thing that we’ve been talking about, too, is that the environment for everybody front ran the Fed bringing interest rates down one and a half points. Jerome Powell is going to be, he’s very reluctant to do that.

Janet yelling kind of cut him off at the knees with this t bill issuance. She can’t do that this year. They’re already losing money every time she does it. So she’s going to have to back off of that. In fact, we’re at extreme levels of her screwing that up. We talked about that in our podcast. But if you want to end this thing, I’ll give you some stocks to think about.

Please do one last thing of that before we get into that. And that’s the bitcoin thing. See, I think that all this talk about the ETFs have led the price to go up and that if they do approve it, it’s not just going to go up 40% overnight like people think it’s going to happen. No, that’s what happened last time when they had the futures contract is, oh, futures are going to trade.

Bitcoin is going to go to the moon. It went $65,000 to 13. So there’s an axiom in trading is that once the news is known and then once it comes out, you get a reverse reaction. So our view is that it’s going to pull back from there. It’s had a great run. The miners, bitcoin miners have already started to pull back some. So they’re already anticipating that it’s going to be a sell the news event.

Now when the fed starts pumping bitcoin, gold and silver, going to rock it. Okay. So buy low. Okay. Sell high. Okay. Your predictions. Yeah. So here’s the stocks that we’re going to be looking at for this environment. It’s going to be sark, it’s going to be nvds, it’s going to be TBT. And then you want to short the small caps. They’re going to suffer the most, which would be TZA.

All of those will require special handling and care because you just can’t buy those now and then close them at Easter because you’ll end up losing money on all four of them. So you’re going to have to trade those, and we’ll help you do that. But those are the areas that I’ll be focused. I’ll be trading all of those from there, you need to be in and out of them.

And then you’ll make some good money on these moves because the moves down are like elevator moves. You’ll drop three or four days really strong, and then usually then dumb money comes in to short it again, you’ll get a two day pop. So we’ll be in and out of these trades and helping people make money and just basically being a seagull as the big fish. Bring the bait up, we’ll eat, and then we’ll get out of the way and wait for the next bait ball to come.

Great. Sell. And then get right back in with the cash and then get back in. Okay. So, guys, again, thank you. I’m just so excited about this. Just because everything he’s predicted through the end of the year, Santa rally, everything was spot on. Okay? 100%. Bravo to you. One thing that we talked about, Bob, is having a training program in Florida that is sold out right now. But how many of you would want to go to attend a trading program with Bob? Let’s talk about that.

I mean, put yes. For trading Bob, or I’d like to trade with Bob or whatever in the comments, because I’d love to know a trading session that we all get together and have Bob teach you guys for a couple of days, too. I think that would be very cool. And go someplace fun. And you’re going to Florida on this one. Yeah, Florida. We do Florida, then we do Hawai.

We kind of back and forth. Covid screwed us up for a couple of years. But the other thing, too, is that if you can’t make a face to face one, let us know if you want to do some online, maybe do some webinars and stuff, guys. But just let us know if that’s something that you think would be an option. But again, very exciting after Martin Luther King day to Easter, where the market goes and what they’re going to do and what they’re going to invent, what they’re going to tell us is okay, and it’s not.

But I follow Bob. And again, very lucky that I have you on speed dial and I can ask you questions all the time, but take a look@danlovestrading. com. To take advantage of the bundle that he put in for Black Friday. You made those deals, and they’re you know what else? Anything you want to close it, you know, be cautious. Guys, understand this, that we’re not in a good environment right now.

And I know Mr. Gloom and doom. I’m just reporting the news, guys. Right now. I’ve got myself set up to where I’m not in debt. I am not chasing things. I don’t have expensive car payments. I don’t piss my money away, to be honest with you. And I follow advice from guys like this who are very secure and know what they’re doing. He just happens to be in the financial space.

Look, I’m an optimist, and forewarned is forearmed. If you sit in cash and the market goes down 20%, you just gave yourself one massive discount. And if you’re Dan’s age and my age, you don’t want to take big drawdowns because you don’t have years to build it back up. So just be realistic. Look, you’re listening to this show because you know that you’re getting lied to on a regular basis.

It’s a diet of lies and narratives. So the only thing that pays you is price. Action pays. We have the tools for that, and we’ll help you navigate it. And I think you’ll like it when we charge for services. Nothing compared to what you get out of it. Absolutely. I know a lot of people have made a lot of money, too with it. So thank you, sir. Happy new year again.

And guys, please don’t forget to hit the like button. Please don’t forget to subscribe as always, to the channel. Share this video with people. And now we got a predictor, guys. We got dates, we got times. We got everything to look forward to. So take a look@danlovestrading. com. And if you want to get a hold of me, it’s hello@iallegedly. com. Is the email address. Onward and upward, guys.

We will see you very soon. Yes, thank you. Bye. .