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Summary
Transcript
I strongly suspect that the phone calls between the major banks and the Fed have been increasing at a tremendous rate over the last week or so, because it’s not just one bank, it’s all of them. They’re going down much. You’re watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. The banks are cracking. Panic is rising. And while everyone’s running for covering gold, something much more explosive is happening just beneath the surface. Silver, ignored, dismissed, beaten down is quietly setting the stage for a breakout that could leave gold in the dust. Think about this. Trump’s latest tariff move just killed an $80 billion arbitrage trade overnight, draining liquidity and shaking the very core of precious metal flows.
Premiums are collapsing. Volatility is spiking. And in the chaos, the gold to silver ratio has hit and unheard of. When 100 to 1, that’s not just high. It’s screaming that silver is absurdly undervalued. But here’s what most people miss. When markets panic, gold hoards the fear, but silver hoards the upside. This isn’t just another dip. It’s a setup, One that’s been brewing under the radar, fueled by collapsing bank stocks, recession headlines, and a geopolitical powder keg that could ignite at any second. While gold gets the headlines, silver is winding the spring. And when it releases, the move could be historic.
So why is this happening now? Why is the panic in gold actually the signal for silver to explode? Keep watching, because what’s coming for silver may be bigger than anything we’ve seen in over a decade. Early this year, from 2009 to then, 15 years of massive multiple upside caused by monetary policies. We know QEs lasted for, you know, we had free money for 10 or 15 years. And even when they raise rates, it was lower than it had been in 50 years. So, you know, it was free money, okay? When you have free money, it goes somewhere.
And it went into the stock market. Investors now are deciding maybe they don’t want it there. Okay? And yes, the guys who claim, and there’s many of them and analysts and investors, that when the stock market goes down, so does gold, they’re very. They’re too much focused on a narrow event, brief period of time. The last time of where this occurred, and they still remember it, is that October of 2008. At that point in time, gold had already been rising since its lows in price in the year 2000, 2001, it was about 260 bucks. It went up all the way to a thousand.
Okay, quadrupled. And that was before that collapse in the stock market. And, and in fact, part of that was while the stock market already topped and was headed down, the stock market had been dropping for a full year and gold still rising. But in the summer, especially In October of 2008, the stock market finally had a shark sharp drop within the context of what was already an ongoing bear market. It dropped like 30% in a month. Okay, October of 2008, a year off the high. At that point, gold said, oh, all of them are correct too.
I’ll use this as a correction opportunity. And it had a collapse down into the 600s. And people think it goes with the stock market. Gold is a monetary metal. It is the inversion of the collapsing, ongoing collapse in the real value of paper money units, yens, euros, dollars, you name it. They always depreciate because governments always expand the money supply. They, they create free money, artificially low price of credit, and it creates distortions. And gold is merely an ongoing reflection of the decay in, in the monetary units that we use. That’s still going on now. Money supply is still growing.
It basically doubles almost every decade. And when the Fed has a, an excuse or justification, which is what they were created for, to save certain institutions, banks especially, they push the pedal to the floor, okay? And sometimes they back off a little bit, but then they push it to the floor again. If you saw Powell today, he was comfortably smiling and talking about, well, you know, we have these two mandates and the economy looks solid. You know, even the reporters in the audience were smart enough to say, yeah, but you know, when the stock market goes down, then the data points change.
It’s the point we’ve been making for many months. They don’t turn first and then, you know, oh, the economy’s getting worse. So the stock market goes down. Now the Fed is going to have soon all the data points. They need to smack them in the face to again push the pedal to the floor. And I know they don’t want to because frankly, they don’t like Trump. You know, he doesn’t like them. So there’s an antagonism there. And so Powell’s kind of smiling right now because stock market’s going down and he’s not getting blamed for it. By keeping rates too high for too long, Trump is getting blamed for it.
So he’s in perfect position. The problem is this, the banks. And look at, look at an ETF like KBE, which is the major bank ETF. Look at bank, the collapse of that $80 billion gold and silver arbitrage trade wasn’t just a headline. It was a seismic shift. For months, investors were exploiting a loophole, buying metals overseas and flipping them for massive premiums. In New York, it was easy money until Trump stepped in. His announcement that gold and silver would be exempt from the new round of tariffs slammed the door shut. Overnight, the trade evaporated. Premiums that had soared over $62 for gold and more than a dollar for silver plummeted.
Gold’s Premium fell to $23. Silver’s to just $0.24. And with that, a wave of confusion swept across the metals market. Arbitrage had been acting like a pressure valve, absorbing some of the economic tension and allowing metals to move smoothly across borders. With that valve gone, liquidity dried up. Price discovery became more volatile, and the calm that traders had grown used to suddenly vanished. For Silver, the consequences were immediate. It lost a core source of support in the market, those arbitrageurs who had been providing consistent buying pressure. But what it gained in return was even more valuable.
The freedom to move without artificial pricing mechanisms distorting the market. Silver was now fully exposed to investor sentiment, technical setups, and macroeconomic shockwaves. And in a landscape where fear is the dominant emotion, that kind of exposure could be silver’s launch pad or its breaking point. Finally, see the data points. I strongly suspect that the phone calls between the major banks and the Fed have been increasing at a tremendous rate over the last week or so, because it’s not just one bank, it’s all of them. They’re going down much harder than the stock market. So everybody’s talking about, oh, well, Tesla collapsed and Nvidia’s down hard.
Who cares? It’s the banks that matter to the Fed. After all, the Fed is the banks. Okay? Now that’s why gold’s down 3 1/2 percent. Somebody’s buying gold relative to the rest of the world. And I think that’s because they see what’s coming. The Fed is maybe learned a lesson since 2008 and learned, hey, we can’t wait too long. You know, we can’t wait for an actual big bank to go under because it will look like idiots. We need to actually do a QE. Start buying assets, start buying banking ETFs or whatever, bank stocks or commercial real estate, another implosion area before it becomes a bloody headline.
And I think gold does that. It knows maybe the Fed’s a little smarter now and will implement their aggressive policies real soon. Watch the bank sector. That’s the key. Now, the case is silver investors are making a big mistake there. Okay? If we’re going into a major global recession, maybe a depression wouldn’t surprise me given the bubble size of the US stock market, the Japanese market and the Indian market, they’re all imploding together. Industrial commodities will go down. Now, they don’t necessarily have to stay down because when the Fed puts the pedal to the floor again, that money goes somewhere.
And commodities are still dirt cheap. And we think they’re going to go up, but right now they’re going down with the stock market. Industrial commodities, crude oil, copper, okay, they’re treating silver not like gold. Like I said, down 3%. Silver’s dropped from $35 to 29 almost in a matter of a week or so. It’s behaving like copper and oil. Somebody’s making the conceptual error that silver is an industrial commodity, not a monetary metal. So just fundamentally, now, there’s technical reasons for what I’m saying, just fundamentally. If I were an investor wanting to put my money in monetary metals, knowing that the Fed’s going to panic here probably sooner than they did in 2008, that I want to own monetary metals because paper money is going to be far worth less than, you know, than it might otherwise be because they’ll accelerate the growth in the money spy.
I’d look around, I’d say, well, gold’s behaving well. Yeah, I’d want to be in gold, but that silver is ridiculous. It’s a slingshot situation. It is not copper. It is not crude oil. Okay? It’s a monetary metal. And the right now, for the last week, investors have forgotten that. And they often make mistakes. Investment crowd often makes excessive mistakes either way. So right now I’d say we see this pullback in gold and silver as a major buying opportunity. We’re looking for the least excuse to define the upturn. And I strongly suspect it won’t really take a full 30% crash in the stock market to do that.
I think you gotta watch the banking sector. If it doesn’t behave well real soon and already it’s done so much damage, I don’t think it will. The Fed will panic. And that’s the name of the game. Gold is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do in a crisis. Catch the fear and protect the capital. As the banking sector trembles under the weight of collapsing stocks and recession, chatter floods the headlines. Investors are stampeding towards safety and gold is the first shelter they find. Since the start of the year, gold has surged over 15%, fueled by rising layoffs.
Declining corporate earnings and a wave of global uncertainty that shows no signs of slowing down. It’s not just the headlines either. It’s the tone of the market. The Fed’s indecision, the growing whispers of rate cuts and the plunging US Dollar are all stacking the deck in gold’s favor. The sentiment is clear. When trust in the system starts to break down, gold becomes the fallback. Public posts on X are echoing this trend. Investors are pointing to gold’s stability, its resilience in the face of chaos, and the fact that even as risk assets collapse, gold is holding firm.
This fear based buying isn’t rational, it’s primal. It’s what happens when people stop thinking about returns and start thinking about survival. But while everyone’s rushing into gold, they’re overlooking something critical. Because in the shadows of gold strength, silver is quietly being set up for something much more aggressive. And the deeper the panic goes, the more likely it is that silver won’t just follow gold, it’ll overtake it. But first it has to survive the fallout from its industrial side. And that’s where things get really interesting. America, look at Citicorp. I mean these, these banks are dropping enormously, far more than the S and P.
In fact, over the last week, you know, S and p be down 3 or 4% one day, 3 or 4. The next banks would be down 6 or 8%, 10%, et cetera. And I’m not just talking one or two, but the sector, okay, that is a sector that few people are talking about for some reason. And that’s the one that will provoke the Fed into panic mode and probably not even waiting for a meeting. So I think that’s where we stand right now. And I think that is an underlying explosive ingredient for gold and for silver.
And we’ll comment on that a little bit later if you want to talk about silver. Well, I would like to get into that because your premise for a long time has been that when we see a stock market crash, a lot of the money will move into precious metals. So it seems like right now we’re seeing both fall at the same time, but you’re seeing maybe that reversal happening pretty soon. Well, if, if you look at the mama market, gold right now as we speak, it’s trading three and a half percent, okay, off of its high weekly, off of its high daily close which occurred a week ago, but it’s down three and a half percent.
Okay. Stock market was, you know, look at, you know, bank sector, stock market and silver and commodities also going down because oh, we’re going into a depression or something. Well, we might be, frankly, but they’re making. There’s a couple mistakes there. One is the assumption gold goes down with the stock market. Yeah, it could go down on them. Couple weeks here and there with the stock market in a sharp situation. But let’s go back and look, for example, at that October of 2008 event. That’s when the stock market had already been coming down hard for a full year and finally had a puke.
Okay? And gold said, oh, okay, I need to correct. Anyway, so it had a puke. The Fed sat and watched the banking sector implode during the summer, and the Lehman Brothers went under in September of 2008. Stock market collapsed the next month in October, and it wasn’t until November that the Fed finally said, okay, we got to do something. They’d been cutting rates all the way down, but they did QE at that point. So right after that October collapse, a full month or two after Lehman went under, the Fed finally woke up, copied the Japanese model, and started doing QEs.
November 2008. Stock market, by the way, went down for five more months into March of 2009, substantially further lower. But if you bought early in November, right after that October debacle, where you thought, oh, stocks going down, therefore gold goes down, actually, gold stopped and turned and started to explode back to its highs within about three or four months, had gained from the six hundreds back to a thousand, like a 50% gain. Not because the stock market turned up. No, because the Fed hit the pedal. And that’s what causes gold to move the way it does now, right now, if he looks at Powell today and they’re not going to hit the pedal, he’s just going to be academic about it.
Wait for the data points, meaning when the blood’s in the street, he’ll. Silver wears two faces, precious metal and industrial workhorse. And in times like these, that dual identity becomes its greatest vulnerability. Unlike gold, which thrives solely on fear and preservation, silver’s demand is deeply tethered to the real economy. Nearly half of all silver consumption is industrial, meaning when recession fears take center stage, silver feels the hit hard. And that’s exactly what’s happening now. Trump’s tariffs may have spared silver from direct taxation, but they didn’t spare its biggest buyers. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of silver’s industrial use, has found itself in the crosshairs, with sweeping tariffs now targeting critical tech imports.
Demand projections from major manufacturers have nosedived silver, heavily used in circuit boards, microchips, and high precision soldering is suddenly facing a dark cloud over one of its strongest demand pipelines. The technical damage reflects the sentiment. Silver’s price broke below the crucial $33.62 pivot, triggering a wave of sell offs that dragged it down toward major support levels. That move wasn’t just about charts. It was about fear that industrial demand could collapse, dragging Silver down with it. But here’s the twist. While this industrial drag is short term painful, it could be the exact setup Silver needs for a violent reversal.
Markets are emotional, they overshoot, and Silver is known for it. The last time Silver was caught in an industrial panic was during the 2008 crash, right before it launched to nearly $50 within three years. The more it gets pushed down by macro fear, the more Runway it has when the narrative shifts. And if history is any guide, that shift begins when the gold to silver ratio goes parabolic. Which brings us to the loudest signal flashing right now, the 100 to 1 ratio. Obviously it could be one or two or three here or there, but I’m just looking at all of them and they’re all behaving very, very much the same.
The only difference is some of them are down a little more than the others. Bank of America and Citicorp have dropped more than, let’s say JP Morgan or a few others, but they’re all down hard. And the point is, it’s not that they’ve been going down for a long time and are therefore might be the near the end of a decline by our metrics. The decline just commenced, technically speaking, on quarterly momentum. It just broke late last month, early this month. So the game is just on and they have a long way to go and they’re doing a lot of damage.
And I can see some of the price charts that people are looking at saying, well, let’s try to buy it here. It’s ripping through prior pivotal lows freshly. So even the price guys should start to get concerned here. But I think that’s the area that again, it’s not a headline. For some reason they’re still focused on the Mag 7, but it’s the banks that are the one that really count. And the other sector that is very dangerous is commercial real estate. We’ve been pounding the table about that for quite a while. Not mortgage real estate, but commercial real estate, because that’s a debt crisis arena.
And there’s a couple of ETFs on that RWR and VNQ that you could look at. And they own the big companies that Own the shopping centers and the commercial centers and the computer centers and all kinds of things like that that look like hell technically. And they have a lot of debt. And we know that that could be an arena that impacts the banks. If you start to have problems there. And so you could, don’t be surprised in the next month or so you start to see some, oh my gosh, a headline out of the financial arena.
And that’s when the panic really sets. Because when the public search to hear that stuff, you know, Nvidia going down is one thing, but when you start to have banking problems, the Fed will panic and will public. So I think we’re near that point. So what I’m looking for is the, the stock market drop to actually explode gold, especially the banking sector, because that’s when the Fed puts the pedal to the floor. And we’re back in November of 2008. Forget the October drop. It’s a November action by the Fed that took gold right off the page and went from 600 and something up to over almost 2000.
Over the next couple years, despite the stock market continuing down for two more quarters, gold was back to its highs. So I think we’re in that kind of situation right now. The gold to silver ratio hasn’t just climbed, it’s erupted at 101. It’s sending the clearest signal the market has seen in over a decade. Silver is absurdly undervalued. This ratio isn’t just a number. It’s a historical pressure gauge, a metric traders and analysts alike used to measure imbalance between the two metals. And right now it’s screaming that silver is cheap, too cheap. Let’s put this into context.
The century long average gold to silver ratio sits somewhere between 40 and 60. Whenever it stretches far beyond that range, it almost always snaps back. And when it does, silver doesn’t just catch up, it catapults. In 1980, the ratio plunged from over 80 to just 17. In 2011, it dropped from 75 to the mid-30s. Both times, silver exploded in value, outperforming gold in violent rallies that stunned even seasoned investors. So what does a 100:1 ratio mean today? It means that for every one ounce of gold, you’d need 100 ounces of silver to match its price. That level is historically rare, and every time we’ve seen it, it signaled an opportunity.
One that only few recognized in time. This isn’t just a sign of silver lagging. It’s a flashing red light that the metal is being suppressed by short term fear and market Distortion. But markets don’t stay irrational forever. Once panic settles and fundamentals reassert themselves, that ratio begins to revert. And when it does, silver tends to respond with a vengeance. Smart investors are watching it closely, waiting for the moment the pressure snaps. But while the ratio sets the stage, sentiment is the spark. And right now, social media is feeding that fire in ways that reveal just how misunderstood silver really is.
The silver gold spread has been trying to break out as has the gold miners versus gold, which when you plot the spread chart and we, we, we do it like weekly in our reports, the certain levels, if you can get GDX up to a certain level versus gold, it’s going to break up a couple year downtrend on the spread and say okay, I’m back, okay. Silver has a similar situation. And you’re right, we’re literally in the gutter historically in terms of price. So either we’re totally wrong and silver is no longer a monetary metal, which I don’t think is the case.
And by the way, if you go back, for example, over the last year for let’s say March of 2024 to the close of last month, silver went up. The commodity index went up a slight amount. I think during that year a couple percent. Silver went up almost as much as gold on a percentage basis over that 12 month period. So silver was moving with the monetary metal, not with crude oil which is laying on the floor for the latch gear or copper. It was behaving like gold and suddenly for this week it’s not behaving like gold.
I think that’s a mistake. Silver is the little puppy on a, on a leash held by gold. Okay. And I think right now it is in a slingshot position. Yes, there may be slightly lower lows next week, but I’d be watching right now for any sign of an uptrend. There’s another reason technically I used to keep point and figure charts. You know people, the X’s and O’s where you get upticks, you get downticks. Silver never tops with the double top. Well, we made a high at 35 back in October we had a drop down to 30.
So you had four downticks on a $1 chart. Then you went back up to what, 35 last month and this month you put the upticks back on the board to 35. So you peaked the same level you did last October and now you’ve down ticked again to 30. Almost traded 29 today. I actually want to see it trade to 29 and take out that last low. So people then pull their hair out. Oh my gosh, it’s no good because on a point and figure, when you do that, you set up a double top and take out the column low.
Pardon me if I’m being academic here. And then you start to uptick what it was, it was a bear trap low, meaning you went down and took out the last low to spook people. And if you don’t sustain and you start to uptick, you’re headed for a triple top breakout. And I think that’s what silver setting up here is, a compression situation where it flushes everybody out without the help of gold. I mean, like gold’s only dropped three and a half percent and suddenly turns and burns. And so I think, watch gold. I don’t think it’s going to do what the stock market’s doing or which silver’s already done or what commodities have done.
It’s hanging in there pretty tough. And I think that says something. And I would focus on the banks because we know that that’s the arena that will cause the Fed to not openly and publicly, but to quietly behind the scenes, panic and probably even have a cut or QE instituted even before the next meeting. Scroll through X right now and you’ll see a flood of anxiety. But it’s not aimed at gold. It’s silver that’s taking the heat. Post after post paints a picture of a metal in distress. Headlines shouting, silver plummeting, charts flashing red and users venting frustration as their positions bleed.
And yet, that very panic might be the clearest contrarian indicator we’ve seen in years. Look closer and you’ll see a divide in sentiment. Gold is hailed as the hero. Strong, stable, unshaken silver. It’s the scapegoat. Niels C warns that the 100:1 ratio is a result of recession fears hammering silver’s industrial demand. 7uz5kpwd Zuu6ix6 bluntly states, Gold’s holding, but silver’s collapsing, dragging silver gold miners with it. Then there’s intendance, pointing to geopolitical tremors, like Germany eyeing gold withdrawals from the us while silver gets rigged and attacked in the background. It’s a mess of emotion, distrust and desperation.
But here’s what’s fascinating. When sentiment gets this extreme, it often marks a bottom market psychology runs in cycles. And when public perception becomes overwhelmingly bearish, especially for a volatile asset like silver, it’s often right before the reversal begins. Everyone’s focused on the bleeding price. Few are watching the fundamentals. Fewer still are looking at the setup. And this is what makes Silver so unique right now. It’s not just cheap, it’s hated. And in the world of contrarian investing, that’s gold, or in this case, silver. The louder the sentiment cries collapse, the more likely it is that a turning point is near.
But before any comeback begins, Silver must survive its most immediate challenge. The brutal technical levels that could decide whether it sinks deeper or slingshots higher. Happening ongoing for the last several months, where early money has been moving out of an asset category they deemed to be too high risk, too low reward. Even though it hadn’t dropped at that point, you know, January, February, the money was starting to move. That’s why miners, for example, shot up substantially over the last several months. In fact, XAU index and GDX, the ETF, if you look at the last three years of action since 2020, they blew that stuff out.
It was a ceiling. And yeah, you pulled back slightly below, but you closed last month substantially above it. And I’m gonna bet by the end of this month you’re still substantially above that range that prevailed back to 2020. So their price action has just woken up. And I think that money will. More of that money will flow into the miners, especially as the perception hits that this really is a bear market in stocks. You know, the block of correction starting to get a little wobbly right now. Silver’s chart right now looks like a battlefield. Broken pivots, falling knives and traders bracing for one final flush.
Just days ago, it crashed through the critical $33.62 level, triggering a cascade of stop losses and algorithmic selling. The next battleground, a narrow zone of support at $32.53, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement collides with the 50 day moving average. This isn’t just a technical setup. It’s a psychological line in the sand. The market is watching this level with laser focus. If Silver breaks through it decisively, the next floor doesn’t come until $31.81. With a deeper plunge possible toward the 200 day moving average around $30.89. What if it holds? That’s the kind of coiled energy technical traders live for.
A bounce off confluent support that could ignite a momentum shift, especially with the ratio stretched as far as it is. And sentiment. This bleak and yet price action is only half the story. What’s dragging Silver down isn’t just fear of a technical breakdown. It’s fear that the broader macro environment has flipped against it. Investors are scared that the industrial slowdown is here to stay, that tariffs will choke off demand, and that Silver’s recent run was just another false start. But this fear might be exactly what Silver needs. Markets often break support when panic is peaking, only to reverse violently when the selling exhausts itself.
And with Silver sitting on multiple long term supports, the next move could set the tone for months. Either the dam breaks and silver tumbles or the pressure backfires and the rally begins. But to understand where the breakout might really come from, we have to look behind the price and into something far more structural. A supply crisis that’s quietly tightening the noose. Probably the latter. We do know that leverage in the US stock market is like triple its norms. Okay, a triple. Any prior time I’ve seen studies on it, I don’t pay that close of attention, but that’s an interesting fact.
And therefore this drop which is now maybe getting to the point of creating margin situations, although. But we do see a bounce point in the S and P. A potential bounce point. Better well bounce from there. But that’s down another right. We’re trading near 5100 today. The S P looks like it might have a bounce point at 4, 800. The NASDAQ 100 trading in 17, 500 area. It might have a bounce point in the 16,000 area. So another a good handful of percentage drop 6, 7, 8% and you’ll get to a possible bounce point. Not a low, but it could.
But that’s still not a crash dimension. Actually you know, if you think about 30% drop is a crash in a matter of a couple weeks, that’s what happened in October 2008. And so far though we’ve had a short drop in stocks from the look the highs of a month ago, February I think it was to the present. It’s still not crash dimension. And though you get a bad day here and there, there’s not like a third percent drop. Who knows, maybe we’ll get it. Now if S p ever violates 4, 800 substantially and closes a month out like you know, much under 46.70, let’s say.
I’ll give you a number. Oh, at that point you’re blowing some other momentum structures that say all hell could break loose. But right now we tend to think you could have a bounce point around the 4800 now you know, that might get relief to the commodities and silver might bounce. But right now I’d be focused on gold and silver as basically the only place to really be when the central banks panic, realizing what is actually going on, especially with financial institutions. While the market obsesses over charts and sentiment, something far more serious is unfolding behind the scenes.
A tightening noose on physical silver supply. It’s not a headline, it’s not a tweet. It’s a slow burning crisis that’s building quietly. But when it snaps, the impact will be anything but subtle. We’ve already seen signs. For four consecutive years, global silver has been running a deficit. Demand is outpacing supply and inventories are thinning. Miners aren’t keeping up, Exploration is down, new discoveries are rare, and existing mines are facing higher costs and stricter environmental regulations. This isn’t just a short term blip, it’s a structural shortage. Now add in geopolitical tension. Russia, China and India aren’t just accumulating gold, they’re positioning themselves strategically in silver, too.
These countries understand something the broader market doesn’t, that control over critical metals is power. And the west, it’s distracted, still clinging to paper markets and ETFs while physical stockpiles dwindle. Even Germany is making moves. Rumors swirling about potential gold repatriation in response to Trump’s policies. It’s a subtle, yet powerful sign that trust in US Based assets is eroding. And in that climate, precious metals become more than just hedges. They become political leverage. Silver, despite being overlooked, fits into this puzzle. Its industrial value is undeniable, but its role in the monetary reset might be even greater. And with the arbitrage trade gone, the premiums collapsing and supply under pressure, there’s nothing stopping physical demand from surging.
If it ignites when silver breaks, it won’t just be because of charts or fear or sentiment. It’ll be because the foundations underneath it are cracking from lack of supply, rising global demand, and a geopolitical shift that’s pushing metals back into the heart of monetary strategy. The fuse is lit. All that’s left is the spark. And that spark might be gold’s panic itself. Not sure about that situation. I don’t pay much attention to it because it’s one of those that’s transient. Yes. It’s a big issue right now, and it probably does reflect incredible demand for the physical stuff.
And that’s interesting in itself because owning the physical stuff instead of the paper version of the physical stuff indicates concern. If you want to put another way, panic. I want to hold the real stuff. Okay? Not a piece of paper that’s contingent upon certain things not occurring. Okay. So that, that could be an underlying statement of what’s going on out there in terms of sentiment among large acquirers of gold. And right now, the public is really not. American public in particular is not gotten behind the gold bandwagon. They’ve missed a tripling in the price of gold over the last 15 years because they’ve been focused on the stock market.
Now that bubble starting to break, the question is, well, will gold go down with the stock market? Yes, in a brief period it might. Oh, for some reason this past week, which has been disastrous for stocks, gold didn’t go down 2%, if you want to call that down. So I think that the money flow is moving and I think the silver situation is very unique because there’s a mistake being made. One, it does move with gold. Ultimately it is not moved with commodities. Generally. Their historical correlation is not good. Its correlation with gold is very good.
Right now it’s in a slingshot, underperformance situation to gold. But I think it’s a great mistake which will snap back quickly. So when gold does start to outperform, my bet is it doesn’t crawl back. It does something fairly explosive in terms of net price gain. So we’re still quite bullish on the monetary metals and we think this is a bear trap situation, especially for silver. And don’t pay attention to the commodities in relation to silver. Pay attention to gold. Gold may be stealing the spotlight, but the real story is silver. And it’s about to erupt. All the fear pouring into gold.
It’s not just a safe haven move, it’s a pressure cooker building the perfect storm for silver. The arbitrage window is gone, premiums are crushed, and panic is forcing investors into gold like it’s the only option. But here’s the twist. When gold hoards all the fear, silver hoards all the upside. The 100:1 ratio isn’t just a statistic, it’s a countdown. Every tick higher is another sign that silver is being pulled, pushed too far, too fast by fear. That doesn’t account for the supply crunch, the structural deficit, or the massive global positioning happening in the background. Traders are watching charts.
Smart money is watching inventory. And when silver rebounds, it won’t be slow, it’ll be explosive. Silver’s industrial weakness temporary. Its sentiment collapse predictable. But the setup we’re seeing right now, a hated, oversold and misunderstood metal sitting on a foundation of physical scarcity is rare. Add in global panic, collapsing bank stocks, and a geopolitical chessboard shifting beneath our feet, and you have the ingredients for a historic breakout. The question isn’t if silver will move, it’s when. And when it does, those who saw past the fear and into the fundamentals will be the ones standing on the right side of history.
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