The 10-year yield is 451. Up almost four basis points. The DXY, representing the dollar, is 106.96. Below my level, but bouncing up 22, is S&P 500 to 6137. Up 10. The VIX is 1550. Up 12, gold is 2915. After being up on Monday, U.S. markets were closed. So, we’ve retraced almost half of that washout, which is encouraging. Up 15 and change. I happen to be short, so I’m not making money. That’s not very good, but we’ll figure that out. Silver is 3245. Up 11, so not bouncing as much. Copper is 457, unchanged. WTI is 7157, down 17.

That gas is 372, unchanged. Bitcoin is 96, 155. Up 395, palladium is 975. Up buck, and platinum is 984. Up 4 bucks. Gold, silver, below 92, which was, I think, where it peaked last. But holding its own, even though silver got slammed off the high side. So, soy is 1035, down 1. Corn is 494. Up 2, and wheat is 608, down 4. Okay. There’s the homepage. We put up a bunch of content, and we’re going to go through that content very quickly with you right at the top here. Over the last four days, we put out probably 10 stories, all of them gold and silver related, all of them related to topics like the London drawdown, the EFP, the revaluation, the news about the revaluation, the audit potential.

There have been a lot of topics all converging on precious metals from different areas for probably four reasons. But here are some of the stories that we put on it. So, the first one is how a U.S. gold evaluation could trigger a global metals boom. That is a guest post that we did for Scottsdale Metals. There’s a lot of premium content in there. We would suggest you go there if you have any interest, start there. There’s a good summary, as well as some un-publicly-facing prior graphics from a billion bank. Must-read, BOA breaks down gold remarking. That is a must-read, as it goes into what they think would happen, how they think it would happen, and why they think there’s a low chance of it happening.

But that it would be incredibly beneficial for our balance sheet. The gold fixed goal re-monetization, or monetization thesis, describes how gold should be, if gold is revalued, how those funds should be purposed for paying down the debt. And we go into much detail there. Unlock the U.S. is revaluing gold, hopefully not like in 1973. That’s a contributing editor post that we did for Zero Hedge. It went up today. Bank of America, the path to 3500, goes through China insures. That’s a piece from the 15th. All of these pieces are coming out seemingly unrelated to the London bit, but as we’re going to find out, they are related to the London bit.

And there is the Sunday CFTC discussion, in which I explained that I thought that the Bank of International Settlements capped the rally last week, which I still think is true. However, last week was another week of bullion banks covering shorts, and I have gone from thinking that bullion banks, because they’ve done it so much over the last month, I’ve gone from thinking that bullion banks are scared, which is what I want to think, right? To thinking that when bullion banks are covering, that’s not the end anymore. It’s possibly the beginning, meaning what makes a bullion bank cover shorts if they have deeper pockets.

Well, because something else is going on. Okay, we’re going to touch on the silver discussion and then go through a couple other things, then go back and put more meat on the bond for that. Simon White is a macro analyst at Bloomberg, one of the better ones in my opinion, and he put out a piece on the terminal, which we’re not going to show you, but we are going to paraphrase and quote it a little bit here. Keep an eye on silver as it starts to pick up versus gold. The ratio between the two is historically low, leaving silver looking very cheap with plenty of potential upside.

Quick comment. Doesn’t sound like something you hear coming out of Bloomberg, does it? Bloomberg macro economist Simon White is not buying the tariff narrative as to why the metals are rallying. Now, here’s a quote from that article, which was shocking to hear said, and well, let’s read it. The prevailing reason given for for gold’s rally is tariffs, causing the spread between COMEX gold, i.e. paper gold futures traded in New York, and the physical gold price set in London to widen. But I think this is a convenient narrative. The legacy of mainstream media and the good guys, this is a good guy, in my opinion, are saying what we’ve been saying, gold’s being repatriated, silver’s being repatriated.

The tariff is an excuse. It’s a pretense. It gives coverage for what is going on, I believe, is a major repatriation. Simply put, we’re taking our gold and silver back because we want the gold. We want the gold. You know, they want the gold is what I said last year. Well, we want the gold this year. Why do we want the gold? Well, we can all speculate about it, and certainly we’re going to speculate on it, too. But I’ll tell you this. We want the gold because we need the gold. It’s not like we need the IOUs anymore.

So if Fort Knox was filled with IOUs, you know, paper IOUs, well, now they’re all in London as we’re getting our gold back. And I think it’s quite possible we’re buying more. He also raises doubts about London having the metal it says it has, and we’ll put a little more meat on the bone in this broadcast at the bottom. Next, markets recap from MAG7 to LAG7 to SAG7. That’s something we just came up with there. But we want to draw your attention to the following. China’s behavior is methodical. They don’t bluff, and they change direction for a reason.

They’re not tactical. Here’s what I mean. Follow this timeline of events. Donald Trump announces Stargate, which is a massive, massive investment into AI infrastructure that benefits hyperscalers and shows our commitment to growing the AI, the data centers and what have you. The next day, practically, China launches a full frontal assault with their DeepSeek product, and their DeepSeek product allegedly was cheaper to make, is cheaper to use, and shows the folly of all the money being wasted in America on AI tech. Next, yesterday, or the day before, Xi Jinping has a conversation with Jack Ma, who was the tech guru out there and who was someone that was essentially banished to the wilderness.

He shakes his hand publicly. That’s no light behavior when it comes to Jack Ma. China is going head-to-head with the U.S. on tech for various unknown reasons, but the effect can be pronounced. Michael Hartnett, for the last month, two months or so, has been saying that U.S. stocks, U.S. American exceptionalism, was going to retrace compared to the rest of the world. And that’s been a statistical analysis, data, and what have you. However, he got very pointed a couple weeks ago when he called the MAG-7, potentially the lag-7, as China’s tech catches up to America’s tech, so the arbitrage is closing.

And then you have DeepSeek, a full frontal assault on the U.S. You have a handshake. You have various announcements. This isn’t just me having an opinion here. This is Trump imposing more tariffs. Alibaba is working with Apple in China. They’re going to open up their market to their own products, and it’s going to help. TechCrunch. ARM plans to launch its own chip. Chinese search engine leader Baidu said on Thursday it would make its artificial intelligence chatbot free. If you believe American stocks are too high, or American financial assets are too inflated relative to the rest of the world, well, how do you attack that? By showing the rest of the world that you have a less expensive, more efficient, or equally efficient product.

And that will ding our capital markets. We’re at war with China right now. U.S. private equity groups have invested billions of dollars in data centers serving TikTok owner ByteDance. Just be careful of the American stock market. If you’re an arbitrage, you’re buying Chinese stocks, and you’re selling American stocks at the MAG-7 level. If you’re just an investor, just keep an eye on that. Okay, moving to a little bit more meat on the silver story, Bloomberg analyst says keep an eye on silver as it gains ground against gold. According to Simon White of Bloomberg, the gold-silver ratio sits near historically the levels making silver look undervalued with room for substantial upside.

I’m not quoting. These are paraphrases. Interesting that he would say that because that’s something you would see Michael Oliver say. And while Simon White is not technically ignorant, he’s certainly not a technician by trade. History backs this up. He goes through some things that we’re quite familiar with. We want to remind everyone of that if you’re not remembering it. Gold explosive rallies in the late 70s and during the Grexit, I call it the Grexit, were notable, meaning 2011. But silver outpaced gold both those times. In 1979, the Hump brothers attempt to corner the silver market drove prices more than fivefold.

I’m paraphrasing him. We all know that, but maybe his audience doesn’t. Right now, gold’s post-election surge is widely pinned on tire of concerns. The narrative focuses on the spread, this is us talking, winding between COMEX gold futures in New York and physical gold priced in London. Well, that’s the convenient explanation. But the deeper cause is likely tighter physical supply in London after years of emerging market central bank accumulation. Emerging market central bank accumulation. The BRICS and the EM are buying not just gold, they’re buying silver for a central bank accumulation. They’re not announcing it. Russia has.

But I think India is for sure. There’s him speaking again. Let me just say that again. The prevailing reason given for gold’s rally is tariffs, the pretense, if you will. Causing the spread between COMEX gold and the physical gold price set in London to widen. But I think this is a convenient narrative. The remote cause is more likely to be a shortage of deliverable physical metal in London after years of emerging market central bank hoarding. Silver is reflecting similar supply dynamics as gold COMEX warehouses in the U.S. are filling up while London stocks decline. On that note, I watched the, and we published some commentary on it.

They dismiss when silver comes up, they dismiss the drawdown in silver. So, for example, London’s gold stocks were drawn down by I think one and a half percent when they were talking, but silver was drawn down seven or eight percent. And as is their way, they dismiss it. They dismiss it by saying it’s industrial. It’s not central bank, you know, it’s out there. We can find it. And, you know, I can just rebut the shit out of that. But just to keep it simple, eight percent is more than one percent, right? OK, all the central banks in the G7 keep their gold in Europe.

So the gold’s there. Even if they’re not making it available, eight percent is more than one percent. All the silver they need is not there because Western central banks don’t have it anymore. Eastern central banks have it. And industry is going to struggle and silver is going to get squeezed because of that. That’s my opinion. Slow motion squeeze. It finishes by noting that silver often lags gold initial rally, but once it catches up, it will run harder and faster. An asset that crashes the party late but then dominates the room and analysis. He uses an analogy saying gold is Scooby-Doo and silver is Scrappy-Doo.

I get it, Simon. If you’re watching this, I get it. But please remember that Scrappy-Doo is when Scooby-Doo jumped the shark. We don’t like that. I don’t like that analogy. Maybe others do. But we understand the spirit that it was coming in. Moving on. Fed minutes, PMI and housing this week, final market check. Let’s go to that. All right, so gold is up 18 now. I shouldn’t be short, right? Being clever. OK, let’s start with gold. I do have the analysis here. All right, for various reasons. Simply speaking, above 2907, you’re no longer looking at this area.

You’re in this rarefied area. Now, I know that we can have a lot of sun between here and here, and this is a lower double top. And technically, you should be looking to possibly still sell rallies as long as they fail below here. I don’t like that anymore. I was liking selling rallies that failed below here. So if this is a bear rally, I can’t see it, meaning a bear flag forming. I can’t see it. One thing I can’t see is that is that the big drops, like always, are slams for gold, like always, are slams post events.

But that damn V shape is back. V shape, V shape, V shape, V shape. OK, look, I understood the V shapes going into the election, right? Right. I’m talking about measure moves, the V, the V, you know, you get slammed. And fine, you get slammed multiple days. That’s fine. But but when you turn, you don’t turn and go sideways for a week. You turn and you start to move your reverse direction, your reverse trend. Right. Right. And then this happened. You know, you drop, you went sideways and then you dropped. Then you went sideways and then you dropped.

And I went, OK, it’s over. Gold’s over. It’s V shape. Shit. And then it happens. And I’m like, you know, pleasantly surprised. And then it happens that we have this weird thing here, this kind of Bart Simpson looking thing, another V. Right. Now you just have nonstop buying. And now you have another V and little V’s within the V’s. Anyway, the point is, the point is. The buying going away and the central banks are still buying and they’re buying at higher prices. And well, Goldman just announced that China bought over 100 tons physical in December. They didn’t buy it here.

They bought it here. And they bought it here and they bought it here. They’ve been buying. They’re buying as it rallies. So they’re no longer waiting for the dip to come to them. They’re slowly, methodically buying it. And you can see that in the chart there. I said we wouldn’t talk about gold today. I apologize. Silver, obviously, you know, people like to talk about silver being sold or slammed in a manipulation. Maybe it was. How about this? How about how about we don’t care if silver is rallying because we have a ton of gold to sell the tactical maneuver.

And so you buy five silver to get it up 50 cents. And so you can sell 500 gold. And then when you’re done selling your gold, you sell some silver and silver drops out. So when these happen, just look at it as someone’s unwinding a gold silver spread or look at it as a manipulation or look at it as both. However, you want to look at it. But one thing I will say is that the market, these long wicks, they don’t really last long anymore. We’re back on the trend. There’s nothing wrong with this market. It just really, really looks good.

Here we are again, right? This is the area that everyone was looking at as a congestion area. And there we are above it again, quietly and calmly and without fanfare. We’re above that level again. I’m Vince. Have a great day. This morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show. We’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

And thanks for watching. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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