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Summary
➡ The article discusses the potential impact of President Trump’s plan to open the US retirement market to cryptocurrency investments. It suggests this could change the financial landscape, similar to how Reagan’s tax laws in the 1986 boosted stock ownership. The article also mentions China’s move to encourage gold ownership and the role of gold as a bridge between the crypto and traditional financial worlds. Lastly, it covers various market updates, including the rise of palladium and the performance of gold and silver.
Transcript
And last night, the other story of interest was the gold-silver ratio analysis, which is behind a premium paywall. So we’re going to keep that top secret. But the bottom line is, it says that the gold-silver ratio is actually expensive, and it should go to the mid-60s. So let’s take a look at the markets. 10-year yields are down 3 at $4.42. The dollar is $98.22. Down 40, $39. The S&P 500 is $6,307. Up 5, the VIX is unchanged at $16.50. Gold is up 19 and change at $33.58, moving towards the top third of the range now.
Silver, $38.38. Up 24, that’s me talking about my position. Copper, $5.52. Also up $0.09. WTI, $0.68, $0.65. Up a buck and change. Natural gas, $0.353. Up $6. Bitcoin, up $114. But the real story in crypto is Ethereum, up 3.7%, $3,607. I added it back to my screen. It’s up 21% since a report by Bank of America came out. And it had been up before that report came out. But it’s kind of accelerated. And we’re going to discuss that today as standalone business model, as well as the implications for commodities like gold. Palladium and platinum are the reason, well, palladium is the reason that things are hard today.
I mentioned this over the last couple days, that the metals, the white metals, but metals in general aren’t taking turns rallying. Nobody wants to be short silver. If palladium’s rallying, nobody wants to be short. If palladium and platinum is rallying, it’s so you’re just having a semi orderly destruction of all short side play in all metals. Crisis of collateral. There isn’t enough palladium. There is enough platinum to do these leverage trades. And as a result, over time, each market gets squeezed as demand picks up. The shorts are waiting for a savior and none comes.
And that’s why silver’s higher today. So this is palladium’s rallying because I don’t know if somebody wants it, right? And someone says, well, shit, I’m not going to short platinum today. And so a lot of the ratio traders and carry traders have gotten their ass handed to them. And that’s a natural, a semi-natural seller that’s no longer in the market. So when one goes up, the whole complex goes up. We’re developing new correlations. All metals go up when one goes up. It’s no longer this versus that. Big picture stuff. Okay. Grains are all up.
Pretty uniformly, too. Okay, let’s start with the main topic. Oh, before we start with the main topic, I don’t do politics, but it’s a current event, the whole Epstein thing. I know a lot of viewers are interested in that. There are, there is, the Epstein files are going to be opened to, most recently, Trump saying the Epstein files are not real or they’re Democratic hoax to today where Trump said, quoting, if there was a smoking gun on Epstein, why didn’t the Dems who controlled the files for four years and had Garland and Comey in charge use it because they had nothing? That was, that was actually yesterday.
But today he’s opening an inquiry so that the Epstein files can be open. If you have any doubt about how these things work, the man needs to be popular because he needs the midterms to go his way because he has an agenda and the MAGA contingent of Republicans are a little pissed and they’re pissed enough to move the polls and they move the polls enough for him to say, okay, we’ll look at it now. So that’s it. Moving on. Bank of America, what to buy during a digital gold rush. That’s our title.
We have read and written on crypto in this space many times. Recent focus has been on stablecoins and their implications for gold, silver, and US treasury prices and our monetary network in general. Two examples of which are attached below in this post. Goldfix had focused in those prior reports on what assets would benefit from stablecoins and how that would also serve to rescue treasuries. Now we need to look at who is causing the potential benefits to gold and treasuries and to BOA who tackled this very angle. On July 13, Bank of America initiated coverage which we shared with founders upon receipt July 16 on the parent industry of stablecoins with an eye on what to invest in.
Ethereum is one of their recommendations which has rallied 21% as of this morning. They have other specific suggestions. So let’s give a little more about what it’s about. It’s a very, very good, short, tightly worded report describing the industry. Almost like you’re gold producers, gold end users, who digs for the gold. It’s very good and tightly worded. So the title of the report is Doria Gold Rush Sell Shovels. It frames Bank of America’s investment thesis. The focus is not on which stablecoin will dominate, which we haven’t done either, but we still wanted to know which stablecoin would affect gold or silver.
But their focus is not on which stablecoin to buy, but on who enables stablecoin usage. So Bank of America draws a clear distinction between token issuers and the networks, platforms, and institutions that provide the rails that those tokens slide on. The latter group is viewed as more scalable and durable in value creation. Cited infrastructure beneficiaries include issuers, custodians, and network providers who will benefit most. That full analysis is in the premium post just sent out, BOA went to buy Doria Digital Gold Rush. They give specific names as examples. The terminology, if you’re not familiar, the terminology of these players is the same as in any industry with very big parallels to mining.
If you understand precious metals, you can understand this. Pick and shovel analogy aside. For example, the stablecoin is the product. The issuer of the stablecoin is the person selling or creating the stablecoin. So they’re both a producer and a marketer of the stablecoin. The network is the Visa or MasterCard that accepts the stablecoin. The custodian is the vault. So the bank has a vault. Stablecoins are in the vault. They’re protected. They’re custodially protected. And all these things fit into the same model that you see for precious metals. And so this should be something up every metals person’s alley beyond the fact that stablecoins will be the vehicle that will propel gold and silver higher because it’ll make them more available on a broader network.
Ethereum is an example. Think of who Ethereum’s competitors are. Think of a company. I’ll throw a company. He didn’t say this company, but I’ll throw a company out there. Circle. The recent rule changes, which they go into the rule changes, they go into all the recent rule changes are just, it’s like the circle bill. Look up what circle is and you’ll be like, oh, circle is the creator of stablecoins. You need a stablecoin, you go to them and they’ll make it for you. So it’s kind of like the investment banking. Every one of these divisions is a division of old banking.
Okay. You didn’t ask this, but I’m going to throw it at you because I’m going to do probably a low piece on this. But a bank has investment banking. That’s the financial engineering. They create the derivatives that people buy. They create the product custodianship. They hold your shares for you or your gold or your silver and distribution, that’s their network. So they create the product and they market the product to their network and they tell their network to leave their product in their custody. That’s a bank. Okay. In this industry, it’s the same thing, okay.
But it’s not one company. Circle or Ethereum, depending on how you look at it, creates the product. Ethereum creates the product. Okay. The network that it is used on, the distribution network is the successor to Visa or MasterCard. And the custodian is literally in this report, a bank. So that’s it. It’s the same thing. It’s the same thing with different words. Okay. So moving on. Again, the full analysis in the premium post, we just said that. Related posts directly, if you’re just focused on gold and you want to approach it from gold, gold, stablecoins, and the next bubble.
That’s a July 9th piece we did. Very personal touch on that piece and what we think is going to happen. Alchemy in the blockchain era, that’s an important piece on what blockchain can and will do for finance. This is an error that’s going to unlock the value for gold. So do you want to own gold? Of course you do. Do you want to own the guys selling the picks and shovels for the gold? It’s the same people selling the picks and shovels for the stablecoins. Podcasts, special platinum report and commentary. We stand by that.
That’s a bearish analysis from a second bank and our counterpoint to it. Gold silver ratio analysis, we just alluded to that. Founders AM, FEDEDI, penance revisited. That’s going to be brought up by many banks going forward because now it’s an issue that has to be discussed. The seal has been broken there. And metals wars, what’s mine is mine. What’s yours is mine unless you protect it. Okay, moving on. We want to go through some top news today. These are from a bullion bank actually, what they’re reading today and hat tip to zero for this, but we’ll just give you a couple of headlines here.
Trump is set to open the US retirement market to crypto investments with Trump preparing an executive order to allow 401k plans to tap a broad pool of alternative assets according to FT. Everyone who’s over the age of 55, listen closely. Do you remember when Ronald Reagan changed the tax laws in 1986? Do you remember what happened to stocks then? He changed the tax law to make it easier to own stocks. He permitted insurance companies to offer more aggressive variable annuities, which held stocks. The law was changed to facilitate and steer money into stocks.
That’s one of the reasons that gold went down because other products were made and money was funneled or directed or steered in that area. This is the infrastructure under Trump changing to facilitate crypto investments. Does gold suffer? Well, it could relative to the new products. Gold’s not going to go down because, but I guess what I’m saying is you want to keep in mind that the next generation is going to be dealing with crypto. Whether you like it or not, I don’t care. It’s going to happen. It’s going to do with stablecoins, what Reagan did with stocks.
Nobody likes stocks in the early 80s. That’s where you go to die if you own stocks. Anyway, that’s the cyclical change that we’re having. What’s going on in China? China is doing the same thing with gold. They’re telling their insurance companies to buy gold to offer it as insurance products to their people. They’re liberating gold ownership. We are liberating crypto ownership. Two cultures, gold and crypto. Crypto is going to be used to make gold go higher in Asia. Gold is going to be used to make crypto more palatable. Oh, we got a stablecoin.
It’s got gold in it. Let’s buy the stablecoin. Over in Asia, it’s like we’ve got gold. Well, how can we get access to a quicker? Let’s use a stablecoin. Gold is the bridge between both worlds in so many ways. Anyway, I love this stuff. Fed chair Powell rebutted the Trump administration accusations that he misled Congress over 2.5 billion refurbishment of the central bank’s headquarters. Well, he rebutted it, so he’s nervous. Feds Christopher Waller called for a quarter point rate cut this month. Probably he’s looking for a job. China’s exports of rare earth products jumped in June.
Yeah, that’s because we kind of deal with them, and that deal was a ceasefire. And if you’re wondering who blinked first, they probably both blinked, Xi and Trump, but our complete auto and military industry in sales would shut down in six months without rare earths. People buy our submarines. It’s a big part of our economy. China trimmed its US treasury holdings for a third straight month in May. Well, there’s a ceasefire, but there certainly is no truce. The EU has reached an agreement on a new sanctions package against Russia. What good that’ll do.
And oh, well, that’s not going to be a premium, but you get the idea. Friday, housing starts at 830. It looks like it’s already come out. And so we’re backed off a little bit. That doesn’t really matter as much right now. So charts and final market check. Let’s do that. There’s a theorem. You got to love this, right? Bank of America’s report comes out on 13th after the market had been bought by probably I wrote us all the report first. We gave it to subscribers on the 16th and it’s up about, you know, 3,200 to 3,600.
Jesus. 400. So 10, 15%. That’s pretty good. All right. So and Bitcoin has gone nowhere. Just take a quick look at that because all this legislation is not about Bitcoin. It creates competition for Bitcoin. Bitcoin will truly be gold compared to these other coins. Anyway, keep that in mind. Palladium, the new darling of the markets. What are you going to say? Platinum, tracking Palladium today. Tracking means Platinum is up. I guess we’ll buy some Palladium because it looks cheap on a relative basis. But look at Platinum. Platinum is out of its structure, right? Silver, out of its structure.
Oh, I love this. You have no idea much. I love this as a silver bull. And gold, its structure was here. And then it failed on getting out of a structure here. So gold’s in a holding pattern. What can I look at here? That won’t bore you to death. Oh, it’s still a little gold silver. That’s a busy looking sharp. There we go. All right. So gold silver. Since the great financial crisis, they realized they, meaning central banks, realized they should probably stop selling gold and maybe start buying it. And so the bullion banks started buying gold and selling silver.
And then it got goofy, right, during COVID. And then they resumed it sometimes at a faster pace after 22. And that time silver gets a little bit too precious for them, meaning right in here, they tamp it down because they want to make sure you know that silver’s not really precious. It’s industrial. That’s the beauty of silver. The banks have been going out of their way for decades, telling you silver’s not precious. It’s industrial. Sold while they buy gold. And guess what? It’s the industrial part that’s shoving silver up their ass now.
It’s the industrial part that’s shoving platinum in the same place. Palladium, I don’t know anything about it except that I don’t like it. But there you go. That’s it. I’m Vince. We have a lot of stuff coming up this weekend, but that’s it for today. Take care. Well, thank you, Vincent, as always for this morning’s broadcast. And also thank you to each and every one of you out there watching the show. Sure hope you enjoyed it and that this show has been helpful as we navigate these historic times in the gold and silver markets.
And before we wrap up for the weekend, first of all, I’m going to say I hope that you’re all safe and healthy and well out there. A lot going on in the world, but glad we have this space here together to talk about some of these things. And lastly, we’d like to thank Fortuna Mining, who kindly brought us today’s show. And one of the changes that we’ve noticed in Fortuna this year is that they did sell their San Jose and Earmoco mines, which allows them to focus on lower cost ounces, which is one of the things that they’ve been targeting, because yes, they could easily increase the overall production number, but they’re doing that very selectively and targeting lower cost ounces to bring the overall cost down as low as possible and provide more margin, especially at the elevated gold prices.
Although one of the things that they have been working on in terms of getting that production back up is the project they picked up from Cheshire Resources, their D’Ambassoud project. That was something that CEO Jorge Ginoza talked about in his last appearance on the show after they had record-free cashflow in the second quarter. And to find out a little bit more about the potential timeline going on there, well, here is Jorge. I think the sale of both assets makes a lot of sense. And then you can replace them with, I mean, obviously you have the D’Ambassoud project.
D’Ambassoud, so the opportunities are the Seguell expansion, Seguell expansion. Seguell who already said next year is going up to 180,000 ounces of annual production. And D’Ambassoud, as you know, we’re fast tracking it and running three parallel tracks, permitting, environmental studies, engineering studies, and exploration. We’re not doing that sequentially, but rather at the same time. With the idea that perhaps, you know, second half of next year, we can be in a better position to make a construction decision. Well, thank you, Jorge, for that update. It certainly is exciting to see how that’s coming along, especially given how things just progressed and were executed for their Seguell mine, which really has been a big success and has become the flagship asset of the company.
Although we’ll see how soon Chesser is added to that portfolio. So either case, I hope you are getting set for a truly wonderful and magical weekend. And if you’d like to hear a little bit more about Fortuna and what else Jorge had to say, and what was really a great call in my opinion after their second quarter earnings, well, I’ll leave you with that one to head it off into the weekend. [tr:trw].
See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.