Stock Market Crash? What You Must Know! | I Allegedly

Hey, it’s Dan. Welcome back. This is I allegedly, and man, oh man, am I happy that Bob is with us. I’ve got Bob Kudler from Trade genius, and so many of you have written me lately to say, bring Bob back on. I want to discuss this. So let’s talk about the state of the stock market, where everything’s at, some of the predictions you made last month, and welcome.

Oh, thank you. Thanks for having. Okay. Bob last month made a prediction that the stock market in general was going to go south, let’s just put it that way. And I had three people in particular, and I’m going to read their comments to you about what Bob said and what’s happened. And after yesterday, now that we’re first thing in the morning on Wednesday, now yesterday it really took a bath.

Okay. And really sold out to the know. What do you have to say about this right now? Where are we at right now? Yeah. My view on the market hasn’t changed. So from Martin Luther King day to Easter is a window of weakness for the market. And it sold off. Right after Martin Luther King Day, they bid it back. Sold off. At the end of the month, they bid it back.

But the whole premises around the market going higher is that they’re going to reduce interest rates and everybody’s been front running it. Well, we can put that to bed right now, because this is the second month in a row the CPI report came in hot. And last month they ignored it, primarily because they’re probably trying to do this blow off top. They did well this month they didn’t ignore it and the market dropped pretty hard.

And what’s interesting to me is that at the same time, energy prices went up and interest rates went up. So my view is that nothing has changed. And it was a couple of weeks later than I expected. But one thing you guys got to realize, Dan and I are talking macro know, if you’re trading, you trade what’s in front of you. Okay? And so our prediction, if you want to call it a prediction, is the macro environment says we’re weak into the end of March and oil and natural gas will start getting lifted here.

Oil has been on a tear. You ask me if we’ve been making money. We’ve been long energy. So oil prices have gone up. They’re probably going to go up another 10% to 15%. And when that happens, CPI report next month is going to come in hot. The march Fed meetings, he’s not going to lower interest rates and you’re going to have even more weakness in the market probably until the end of March.

And April is usually a pretty good month for the market. So that’s where I’m at. And just remember, too, guys, if you’re making trading decisions on Dan and I talking macro, then you’re doing it wrong. And so you need to have a better methodology than a conversation that we’re having here. Bob runs trade genius, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. But Jeremy, who wrote me and said, have some accountability, Dan, he said the 18th, like it wasn’t a day.

And what I wrote him back and told him was it was a window of time, guys. And again, this could be the end of it. If you look at a lot of people out there, this could be the shift that could completely turn the market south. All we’ve seen is these record high, record high, record high. And again, Bob said, between Martin Luther King day and Easter, and I forgot the dates.

And Easter is. I think it’s April 9. You guys will correct me, but I think it’s early April this year. The point is that that’s what’s going on, guys. And I really think that there’s a lot of instability in the market. Inflation came in hot, which nobody thought that was going to happen. Everybody talked about 2. 2% and that they finally got it down. And interest rates are coming down.

And the only people that care about that are people that sell things tied to interest rates, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and people selling cars and equipment right now. Well, people got to realize, too, just because spy went up doesn’t mean the market went up. And so everybody looks at the headline number, but there are two indexes out there. It’s called the market cap weighted, which is spy.

And then the bigger the stocks are, the more of the gains they take. And that’s why you notice the mag seven stocks, the magnificent seven stocks are going up. The rest of the market is not going up at all. Since October, November, the market’s been flat. It’s just been, they’ve been lifting these. And those who are old enough to know or heard about what’s called the Nifty 50, I would encourage you to go do some market history research.

Those are the 50 industrial stocks in the couldn’t go down. Same conversations. It’s not going down. It’s not going down. It’s not going down. And the market didn’t regain its highs for 18 years after that broke. You have right now this AI bubble going on now with Nvidia and with SMCI. Nvidia is now larger than the entire market. Capitalization of the chinese stock market, it’s literally insane. Nvidia is larger than the entire energy sector, and energy sector produces six times more cash flow than Nvidia does.

So these things are bubbles. If you want to keep buying into that bubble, be my guest, but it’s going to blow up. And when it blows up, there’s a term called the Eiffel Tower. 88% of the move from October is going to get retraced. Now, will it get retraced into April? Hard to say, but it will get retraced at some point this year. And we basically are at a top.

You can’t have rising interest rate, rising energy prices, and a rising stock market at the same time you have economic dislocation. I don’t know if you’ve seen how many layoffs are happening. It’s insane. Daily. Daily. And these are the people that are being forced into early retirement with not enough retirement money. There is what they call an excess of retirees coming on the market. Well, they’re being forced into retirement because they’re too old to get another job and they’re being pushed out with severance plans.

And in three to five years, my heart’s going to go out to these people. They’re going to literally be broke. They’ll be selling their house. They’re going to just be living hand to mouth in their. It’s going to be brutal. You’re going to see a lot of this definitely going to happen. And you’re seeing Social Security is telling people they were overpaid and they’re demanding the money back and no more payments until they’re paid back.

It’s really some horrific things are happening right now. But trade genius is your company. You just had a big trading, a sold out trading show. You look real tan, too, in the dead of winter. Were you at Florida? Is that where you had that? Yeah, we do training every January in Orlando, and we had a sold out show. Three days of training. Talk markets, talk crypto. I think you and I are going to do something together.

I know you’re talking to my partner, so we’re going to probably do something together here locally, I think so. I’ll let Dan work that. I’ll show up and we’ll teach you guys some really good basic practices to trade effectively. And again, you set up a bundle deal for me. Danlovestrading. com. Take a look at that. Danlovestrading. com. And again, guys, some people hold and hope and buy stocks and just hope it goes up.

Bob is trading. Bob is trading on algorithms in the market and his decades of experience. And we always cover questions about industries and things like that right now. So are you hot on energy right now? Again? I am, and probably 70% of my portfolio are energy companies. We went into the window of strength that goes all the way through May for oil, and then the window of strength for natural gas comes in full in March.

It’s a shorter window, about six weeks, but it’s very profitable when that happens. So we’re positioned with energy names, and I’m still strong to shippers, especially the shippers that ship oil, they’re going to do really well with their earnings reports coming up. Anybody you can mention, any stock symbols or anything like that? Yeah, I mean, we just trade stng and quick. Two day trade, 2%. And just remember, that’s a 5% weekly trade times 50.

You’re talking 250% annualized. So you can make a lot of money just doing some really quick, easy trades. Say that again. Two days, you made 2% and you got out. Right. And the problem is people get greedy and, oh, I want to make 40% before I’ll sell. And then it goes down, and they could have had this window and made money again. A lot of people say the same things.

Never be ashamed to take profits, and that’s the thing that you need to do. Yeah, I think people don’t realize that the market actually consolidates more than it trends. So when you get a move like that, you’re always moving your stop up. And if you could get a trend move, that’s great. But if it comes back into your stop, you just take profit, take the cash, and look for the next trade.

There’s trades every day. Bitcoin just had a tremendous run yesterday. It broke down with the market. It’s coming up on the having. So there’s going to be some weakness coming into bitcoin. The bitcoin miners had a great run, and they broke down yesterday, too. So now we’re looking for if they regain new highs, then we’re going to push up higher and we’re going to get a blow off.

If they don’t and you get what’s called a lower high, then expect the Eiffel Tower. And that’s how you look when you trade. Okay, bitcoin having, let’s explain that real quick. People go out and they mine bitcoin through the mathematical equations with these supercomputers. I’m paraphrasing this, guys. So they mine bitcoin and at a certain point there is a date when for what you mine you’re going to be cut in half.

Is that correct? And that’s called the having point, is that correct? Yeah. When a certain amount of tokens or coins have been rewarded or awarded, then the having hits. Okay. So they kind of know where it is and then your reward gets cut in half. Well all those miners then still have all their same fixed cost, but now they’re only getting paid half as much as they were the day before.

And so it’s going to cause some stress in the bitcoin mining area unless bitcoin compensates by moving up in price. And so we think the back half of the year is going to be tough for the bitcoin miners and then we think 2025 will see some recovery. Really it’s all up to the Fed. When the Fed starts pumping liquidity back into the markets, you’ll see gold, silver and bitcoin really shine.

Interesting thing about bitcoin is that it’s kind of operating independent of gold and silver. Gold and silver are really struggling here with the dollar strengthening. But bitcoin has been keeping a good face right now. But I think back half of the year is going to be tough for the miners and for bitcoin. Okay, thank you. So gold and silver right now, do you think the JPMorgan UBS predictions of $2500 to $3,000 are realistic for 2024? Yeah, I mean it all depends on when the Fed starts to engage in QE again and starts buying the bonds back.

So once they start doing that then, yeah, then I think we could see that move. That’s not a really big move from 2000 to 2500. I agree with you there. But as far as, I just think it’s shenanigans because imagine if your house, you could go home tonight and your wife could say, hey, I’m going to go print money and go buy x. That’s what the Fed is doing basically.

And we have a problem, we’ll just print more money. And it’s ridiculous that our 34 trillion by what, June or July, it’s supposed to go to 35 trillion now. I mean it’s crazy that we’re living in this time that you just raise the credit line, raise the credit line, raise the credit line, give these foreign governments $95 billion. It’s nuts. It’s crazy. Yeah. The gold and silver markets aren’t big enough to overcome the manipulation by the money changers.

So they can go in there and they can sell futures contracts and basically break anybody who’s long. If you guys remember the Hunt brothers from the 70s, they just went in there and broke them. And obviously the Federal Reserve does not like competition. And so when gold miners and silver miners mine the metals, they have business expenses. And a lot of these guys are hand to mouth. So what they have to do is they have to sell their production forward, and when they sell it, it kind of caps their own gains.

So until they can get ahead of that curve with higher prices, then they’re not going to get ahead of the ball with. But it’s just going to pop. It’ll be just one of those days you wake up back in, I forget exactly when it was. 2012, 2013, palladium and platinum. Putin decided not to export anymore. They doubled within six months. So if you get some sort of supply correction or china really implodes and they start really importing gold to support their citizens, then you’re just going to have to wait for the fed on gold and silver, but design places to make money.

So don’t get caught up on that. Okay. It’s funny, I always carry my lucky. I allegedly ounce with me. I have one on my desk. Okay. And good, good place for it. And I’ll never forget when I was in high school and the Hunt brothers, I did an essay and got an a on the Hunt brothers hoarding the silver market. And I would go into silver stores that literally were like two cases, and they would sell ounces of silver and things like that.

And the guy sold that and puka shells of all the things he made money on. But I bought silver. Well, you know, shells was a medium exchange at one point. Yeah, it was crazy. But people wore those puka shells and that was the hot thing in the late 70s. Anyways, next thing. So what do you think about uranium? And are you still hot in uranium? Yeah, long term, I still think there’s a double in the price.

The uranium miners had a good move in January. They pulled back in the last couple of weeks, but until this cycle is over, you’ll probably see a double in all those names. Okay. Uranium is good. You can trade it if you want, but uranium is good to tuck away. Okay. Again, any recommendations on those that you had a few before? Anything hasn’t changed. Ura, CCJ, quad U. Okay.

Copper mining. Do you think copper is going to take off or. No, it’s really struggling. Okay. That’s what makes me think that they call copper has an MBA in economics because as the copper price goes, the economics of the countries go, and it’s been sucking wind. I haven’t made a copper trade in probably two years. Okay. Anything with solar energy or anything like that? Nothing like that. Because then the next question.

Clean energy is dead. Lithium is dead. If I frontline you, there’s a title for you. Lithium is dead. Okay. So the EV car market is a real problem because of the expense and that Ford. There’s all these different numbers out there about how much Ford’s losing on the price of each vehicle. And I got a great story sent to me about Lithuania, how there were 30,000 EV cars that the hackers broke into and made it look like they were charging but weren’t, and the cars are stuck all over the country not being charged, and there’s basically multi ton paper weights sitting there that have to be towed and flatbedded to a charging station.

Just like global warming. Another government intervention way ahead of its. We have. If you look at the stock price of Toyota and the stock price of Ford, although this last earnings report, Ford had decent numbers, but you can just tell the tale of the Toyota is doing it right, and Ford and everybody else out there is doing it wrong. Tesla is way overvalued in price, and you just have to look at the price of lithium.

If they’re building batteries, lithium price would be going higher. Lithium prices are collapsing. I did a story a week or so ago talking about how Ford would make twice as much money if it got rid of the electric vehicles, because it’s just such a cash drain. $6 billion loss. It is the spendthrift person in the family that just will not curtail their spending, and that’s what that is.

It’s a real problem. Extortion by the Biden administration. They’re paying. Okay? So let’s talk. One more thing I want to go back to is the people that have written me and get Bob back on to have him tell us exactly what he meant, because it didn’t go down yet. Well, it started to go down yesterday. Okay? And again, you didn’t pick a date. You didn’t say, it’s going to happen by Thursday.

You just picked a window. And it’s months. It’s basically over two months long. Yeah. Look, I’m not apologizing for that. Just because spy went up doesn’t mean the market went up. Okay. Gold didn’t go anywhere. Silver didn’t go anywhere. Uranium didn’t go anywhere. Lithium didn’t go anywhere. Copper didn’t go anywhere. The small caps didn’t go anywhere. You had seven or eight stocks that, that lifted the index up.

And so most people basket does not, and it better not contain those seven stocks. If you trade or invest for a living. If it was 100%, we’d be called collecting, but we don’t trade that way anyway. So I’m in here talking to you about where I see the macro view. We trade off an algorithm, and that algorithm, if Bob says the market’s going to collapse, and my algorithm says to buy, I listen to the algorithm, I don’t listen to Bob.

And so it’s as simple as that. People who trade with me make money. If you want, I’ll send Dan over the Atta boys. He could throw them on the channel. No, it’s great. It’s fantastic. And again, he set up for trade genius. He set up danlovestrading. com, which gets you straight to the discount. And if for some reason you don’t take advantage of that, let Bob know that you signed up and you wanted to be part of.

Dan loves trading, and you’ll get the discounts and the bundle that he puts together. But you get access to Bob cryptos trading. I mean, he’s got people on there that just trade with a few hundred dollars, and he’s got people that trade with more money than I would ever trade with. So very interesting. But check out danlivestrading. com and a few more things. Okay. So right now, the instability of everything right now, it’s just not realistic.

Right now, nothing out there is real, other than we can count on inflation. You can count on the fact that real estate is in real. Know, I went to Florida. I was blown away, Bob, when I hopped on that cruise ship, all the cranes building all these high rises, I’m thinking, who’s going to live there? And I’ve had all these stories sent to me over the course of the last week about how insurance rates are going to go up 50%.

Forget the hoas, because remember, if your insurance goes up, your hoa insurance is going to go up, you’re going to pay all this money to live there. And if you’re on a fixed income and you buy one of these condos, man, you got a problem on your hands. You really do. Yeah. Look, I was just in Florida, and we spent a couple of days in the Clearwater, Tampa, St.

Pete Sarasota area. We checked out a bunch of different areas, and they’re building thousands of luxury condos. And we just looked at my wife and I looked at each other and said, it’s more expensive than here in southern California. I’m like, who’s making this kind of dough? And remember, in California we just have high real estate, but our taxes and insurance is lower than in Florida, and so their cost of living is exceeding here.

And I think what’s happening is you’re starting to see a lot of pressure in that market. Look, commercial real estate is absolutely. And if you’re reading everybody, we’ve been talking about it for months. Yes. And so, look, these guys do everything to keep the juggling going because once this market rolls over, they lose control. Commercial real estate. Janet Yellen finally had to admit that it could be potentially a problem.

When they finally admit something, it’s actually a train wreck. And, and the people I was staying with was my former CEO, and he was the CEO of another company after we parted ways with each other. And he was telling me that he couldn’t even dispose of his excess real estate on subleases to people at any price. And he said, bob, in the next two or three years, it’s going to be an absolute disaster because there’s just too much inventory and not enough people.

And you see it here, too high. And you’ve got, interest rates are too high, the vacancies are too low. I’ve talked about this last week as well. They were bragging, in Manhattan, we have a 30% vacancy rate. It’s coming back. I’m like, that’s the kiss of death. You can’t make money at 30% vacancy. And just because it’s not 50% vacancy, people are trying to celebrate that and it’s an absolute disaster.

Well, you have to remember that in these core cities, if they don’t have people in there, they run the budget deficits. And either the city has to go bankrupt or they’re going to raise taxes, and that’s what’s going to happen across the board. California is the same way. We went from a big surplus to a huge deficit because we count on cap gains. See, that’s the other thing, too.

We’re supposed to be at the best market ever. And the cap gains income coming in on taxes is below trend. It should tell you everything you need to know about the stock market. 23 taxes, it’s going to be down. It’s going to be less than what they originally projected. And that’s what I look at. I don’t look at employment report, I look at tax receipts coming in, because that tells you, look, the people that pay money in taxes are basically upper middle class to rich.

The middle class and poor pay hardly any taxes at all. And when you have below trend federal tax receipts coming in. Now, remember, people a couple of weeks ago had already put in their estimates and it was way low. So it’s going to be absolutely crazy. And this is going to pump inflation because they’re going to have to make it up by deficit spending and charging us more.

And you can’t run a business by charging more fees and, oh, you want to sit in our restaurant? It’s a mandatory $5 fee. All the things that you guys send me are not going to work. They’re going to make people not go out and spend money on fast food, restaurants, clothing stores, everything. People want a deal, and people don’t want to be nickeled and dime to death just because the business is having trouble.

And you’re seeing this with states, too. Yeah. I mean, look, the issue you have here, you only have so much money. And so once you hit the wall, and we hit the wall, too, on credit card, this is the first time credit card spending is actually abating because people have hit their limits and people are paying the highest interest rate as a percentage of income ever. And there’s only one way to solve that.

People are just going to walk away from this debt. Oh, they are. And $1. 14 trillion in debt right now on residential, on unsecured credit card debt, which is crazy. And one thing I wanted to talk to you about, we’ve talked about a real estate, a real problem here. You and I escaped the rain by being out of California. We basically missed that seven day rainstorm. And here in Dana Point, there are some houses.

I said, you guys watch. A week from now, after all this rain, you’re going to see houses on these hillsides that are a problem. There’s two houses that are above $15 million that are falling into the ocean right now. Crazy. Yeah. And also San Clemente, the whole cliff is going down, too. They had to close Amtrak down for a few days. But this is just the beginning. And people are going to start tapping into their home equity, and then it’s just going to be.

Go ahead. No, how about this? Tapping in the home equity not to buy something, not just, but to pay the insurance, just to live and to live. That’s crazy, guys. You don’t want to live that way. So with the stock market, you still think that there’s a problem and that we’re heading towards a downside in the market overall? Let’s just say that in general. Yeah. This year is going to mark the highest, highest.

The stock market is going to be probably in the rest of my. Wow. Okay, guys, please take a look@danlovestrading. com. To get a hold of Bob’s trade genius platform. I absolutely love it. I think it’s fantastic. But you get access to Bob based on the levels that you sign up for. And it’s exciting, guys. I mean, if you live this and if you watch this stuff, look at what Bob’s talking about, because I see problems.

I think that everybody’s anticipating that they’re going to lower interest rates and they’re going to have nine rate cuts. One man, I forgot his name, I did the story on this two days ago, was talking nine rate cuts this year. He says we’ll be lucky if we have two between now and 2025. Yeah, they’re running out of time because they won’t cut for the political season too. And just remember too, guys, I’m not trying to be dire here.

There’s always a bull market somewhere, so something’s always going up, even if the stock market crashes. Just remember during the Great Depression, the homestake mine went up 400%. Okay, last email was from Dave who said, do you see similarities between now and 1929? Other people are. I just think that the government and the Federal Reserve are going to try to throw as much money at the problem as they possibly can get away with.

So I think they’re going to opt towards creating inflation. And a lot of people automatically assume, well, if we’re going to have inflation, Bob, the stock market is going to be like Zimbabwe. It doesn’t work that way. For a reserve currency, which we are, you’re going to get more of a look like 1970s look, where actually money is going to pour in. That’s why I’m looking for the great rotation into energy, not a tech.

And that’s why I’ve been positioned, look, I’ve been positioned, no tech, all energy as my main focus since we’ve been talking. Yes, and I’m doing well. And energy was supposed to collapse and now we’re back in the upcycle for energy. So that’s where you’re going to hide out as long as interest rates keep going up. And if interest rates start to fall, you buy stocks like TLT, which is buying the long bond.

Remember, yields fall, long bond prices go up and you make money that way. We talked before in 2000 and 850 percent gain while the market collapsed 50%. I’ll take that. I know you don’t pick individual like you do some individual stocks, but like the shorting, the s and P 500 and things like that. Is that good to do right now? Like SPXU, things like that. Is that good or is that not? Yeah, I mean, yesterday was the first kind of what I would call earth tremors for the sell off.

And so I’ve been slowly taking a position in Nvidia reports next week. So I’ve been slowly taking a position into a short of Nvidia. I don’t recommend it to people that have weak hearts, but that could be the best trade of my life if that pays off. And because the AI is, Nvidia has done this three times, this is the third bubble Nvidia has engendered. Each time it collapsed 70%, I see it no different this time.

AI is way overhyped. And so I’m looking at that sark is one that you can start scaling into now. Kathy woods, she’s heavy. She’s heavy uranium, she’s heavy biotech, she’s heavy bitcoin. And I think we’re going to get some weakness in that area. And you can start building a position in TLT for the time. The Fed is going to have to start buying back bonds, which will be in the next 90 days.

Okay, interesting. All right, guys, please don’t forget to hit the like button. Don’t forget to take a look@danlovestrading. com. Thank you so much for coming out here today. I know that this was a last minute thing for you, and I really appreciate, I really, really do. Oh, yeah, no worries. And don’t forget to sign up for the email list, guys. And also, Bob’s got a, on YouTube, Bob’s got a daily podcast that they do at trade genius, too, that you guys should check, you know, onward and upward, guys.

We will see you very soon. And if you ever want to ask Bob a question you want to send, just say, ask Bob this. I always love when you guys send me that stuff, too. Yeah. And for those who want to wait between times, Dan, talk to each other, go to my podcast and you can ask me every day. We talk about the market. So if we think the market’s doing something different than I told Dan, I’ll be discussing it there.

But check us out. What we charge for the service is nothing compared to what you get out of it. People every day praise the trades that we do for them and help them with. Yeah, and you can send them to Dan. He’ll share them with you guys. All right, guys, thank you again for being here. We will see you very soon. .

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