➡ The article discusses the rising prices of silver and the potential reasons behind it, including refinery bottlenecks, accumulation, and overlooked policy deadlines. It suggests that the market is preparing for a potential tariff event, which could lead to a higher price for silver. The article also mentions a possible digital tokenized silver product and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global commodity outlook.
➡ The article discusses a shift in the global supply chain model, moving from just-in-time supply to a model focused on storage and security of supply. This change is causing commodities to be seen as strategic assets, affecting their pricing. The article suggests that this could lead to higher commodity prices over the next five to ten years. It also discusses the potential impact of this shift on various commodities, including metals, oil, and rare earths.
➡ This video is simply for information and doesn’t provide official financial trading advice. Always talk to your financial advisor before making decisions. Thanks for watching!

Silver is rising for reasons the market is not yet fully admitting publicly. Behind refinery bottlenecks, accumulation, and overlooked policy deadline, a different framework may be forming. This piece examines why apparent abundance can coexist with higher prices, and why January 2026 matters more than it looks. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Golf Fix Market Rundown. Front and center is the home page. The story in the middle, we said how to survive the new economic order.

That is being translated into German and will be placed on Germany’s largest precious metals publication. So look for that. We’ll let you know when it comes up. Top left hand side, Silver who was front running the 232 tariff decision. That’s an original piece that we postulated. And there’s a lot of interest in that story. Probably because no one else is talking about it yet, and it makes a lot of sense. We spoke with several professionals in several parts of the world. Going into the weekend to come up with a solution as to why things were doing what they were doing.

Specifically, the fact that there is a lot of metal out there. It’s just not coming on the market. And this story, well, let’s put it this way. It picked up over 100 subscribers. This story alone. And that’s very large for our little publication. So we’re going to talk about that at length. The lower right hand side, Goldman, gold and commodities as strategic weapons. Goldman put out a report late last week that we covered. And it’s the there 2025 commodity outlook. Right. We think that it’s it touches on a concept that needs to be paid attention to as to how things are going to proceed.

The new economic cycle, the new commodity cycle, the new I won’t call it a super cycle, but I would say the new macroeconomic cycle for commodities is much different than the old one. Let’s start with the markets. Ten year yields are up to the dollar is down 26. S&P 500 is up 19. Nasdaq is up 57. The VIX is unchanged. Big gold is up 71 dollars on its highs at 4409. That’s a new all time high. Silver is 68.97 near its highs up a buck 80. That’s a new all time high. So one point six four and two point six seven percent are respectively copper lagging 542 up three cents.

That’s almost 60 basis points. WTI 5785 up a buck 16. That gas up to Bitcoin participating a little bit breaching 90,000 Ethereum up as well. Palladium up 80 bucks. I’m sorry, 6163. It’s moving around 61 bucks platinum up over a hundred dollars leading the pack today. 1773 in Palladium. 2081 in platinum. That’s CTA money getting it’s above 2000. So they’re all buying it. We’re entering into a little bit of froth here. Gold silver down another 66 basis points and grains are all up with wheat leading the charge. Okay, so the story we were we want to get to is this first one here.

It says silver who is front running the 232 tariff decision. Silver is rising for reasons the market is not yet fully admitting publicly. Be high refinery bottlenecks accumulation and overlooked policy deadline. A different framework may be forming this piece examines why a parent abundance can coexist with higher prices and why January 2026 matters more than it looks. Section 232 executive order creates a mid-January policy window where silver could be designated tariff incentivizing accumulation before any tariff action. Recall earlier in the year late last year when silver was spiking on the COMEX futures while spot was nowhere in London that was people front running the tariff the tariff that never materialized because it’s politically it’s economically not smart to tariff something you want to buy but nevertheless smart businesses like General Electric were buying their silver beforehand and getting it into the US.

Now that materialized as a big nothing burger and silver collapsed. Least rates came in and the market decided that there weren’t going to be tariffs but now we’re in a different vibe there is a even though it’s up two dollars a day right even though it’s up two dollars a day this is a slow orderly rally price is transmitting supply demand problems not leases this time and that’s because well we have reasons why we think that’s happening but the the the moral of that story is is that there is accumulation before a potential tariff event again but it’s not taking off it’s actually reasonably orderly and that smells to us of smarter more organized accumulation so we ask who is front running the 232 tariff decision which may or may not result in silver being tariffed if you’re asking why would they tariff silver if i keep saying that they have to buy it well you buy it you get it in the borders then you raise the tariff so let’s say silver’s trading fifty dollars um you start buying it knowing you’re going to tariff silver at a higher level after you get enough silver in so what you do is because you’re the united states of america and your price transmission is a global effect you buy all the silver you can you get it inside your border then you raise the tariff and you say the tariff is now 20 higher than the price so we’re not going to buy we’re not going to buy your silver they’re not going to sell silver for anything less than that tariff we’re not going to buy silver and what that does is it makes everyone in the world who has silver pull their silver off the market because they’re waiting for a higher price this has happened before and we’ve talked about this over the years with oil uh how tariffs threats of tariffs make the market go to the tariffed price and i think uh that based on how the market is moving and how the lease rates are not complying that there is a very good chance someone is accumulating in a little bit more methodical orderly fashion in anticipation of tariff risk who that could be we don’t know but we do have an we do have an opinion that we that we share with everyone so rising silver prices fit in with a broader context with this january deadline and that’s a new framework accumulate first restrict access later and it results in a kind of orderly policy managed upside look at what happened in china they stopped up they’re in the process of restricting their their exports of silver now below that there’s another version it says founders silver beware of the ides of january that’s the same written piece but the mini pod there’s a mini pod attached to it and it’s a walkthrough of all the information that we combined to come up with that conclusion and one way to interpret it uh the written part elaborates on the closing observations that silver continues to rally despite there being plenty of it available seemingly warning of the deluge of selling in the near future but there is one thing that does not make sense and it centers the on the ides of january we also touch on the fact that we believe based on information and insight and precedent that someone is going to be announcing a digital tokenized silver product so i think metals being pulled from the mid to the middle east uh for that reason as well i’m pretty i’m sure that that’s happening the question is how it’s happening or when it’s happening we don’t know so that’s the fit that’s the founders version that’s a 15-minute mini pod that goes through the flow process the other piece is strangely enough related to what we just talked about goldman puts out there 2026 gold and commodities outlook and several important themes emerge from that outlook energy understandably attracts the most attention and it may well deliver the cyclical upside many investors are looking for the more durable signal however sits elsewhere now before we get into the durable signal gold remains the bank’s highest conviction long uh the rallies are in 2025 as falling u.s interest rates drew etf investors back into the market increasing competition for physical bullion with central banks american investors competing with global central banks u.s is accumulating gold through its people just like china did the analysts expect these two forces to persist through 2026 the global commodity outlook into 2026 is being shaped by two overlapping forces an intensifying u.s china geopolitical and ai power race at the macro level and large uneven energy supply waves at the micro level together these dynamics underpin underpin the bank’s core convictions across precious metals industrial metals energy and power markets now there is um there is a there is a there’s a piece of this that we think is very significant and uh very telling the reports emphasis on the insurance value of commodities deserves closer scrutiny they say quote the insurance value of commodities in portfolios as a growing supply concentration of the u.s china competition and other geopolitical conflicts raises disruption risks now translate into practical terms this is the onshoring theme that we’ve heard about for years uh moving from manufacturing into physical shortages the legacy of just-in-time supply chains a product of peak globalization is giving way to a model centered on storage redundancy hoarding and security of supply commodities are no longer treated as flow inputs alone tied to whatever the dollar prices they are increasingly treated as strategic assets to which they want the gold the shift matters because it changes the pricing logic of the entire complex let me put a picture up that they that they a graphic that they use in there it’s not actually easy to figure out it’s really like a well took a path out for me um inventory all right so when security replaces efficiency meaning we need to have it we need to have the convenience uh what you get is you get number one you get backwardation because backwardation is a convenience spread right contango is a carry spread convenience i wanted here i can defer delivery later so now we’re in backwardation silver again and that’s a convenience spread now during a convenience spread or backwardation what you’re really looking at is people are willing to pay a price to have it handy now as with all this as the organizing principle inventories will eventually rise because people are hoarding it spare capacity shrinks and price sensitivity increases over the next five to ten years we believe until meaningful new supply is brought online this framework supports steadily higher commodity prices rather than short speculative spikes uh in that environment the precise choice of commodity becomes less important than having diversified exposure across the complex with selective overweights where conviction is highest so let me go through this chart a little bit here this is this is what i believe is going to best eventually be the new commodity macroeconomic cycle okay as commodities become tools of geopolitics uh the first thing is you have the first version there the first quadrant top top top center insulation prices go up that insulation is a nice way of saying accumulation that’s hoarding prices go up as someone hoards right then the the price is now at a high enough point that you move to expansion and in expansion people start drilling for more right prices drop during expansion and then concentration concentration is where everyone has been buying it but now it gets bit out of the hands of smaller players so out of the smaller country’s hands and into the hands of say china and the u.s which we’re seeing now or in a micro fashion out of the retail’s hands as they sell their silver above 50 and into the deeper pocketing hands which are not going to be selling at any price for any time soon right now when you have concentration it becomes leverage so instead of weaponizing the dollar you’re weaponizing gold you’re weaponizing silver you’re weaponizing lithium you’re weaponizing rare earths so they opine where every commodity sector is in this cycle right now so metals are in the insulation area they’re they’re not saying it’s up saying it for them it’s being hoarded silver gold and copper expansion oil is in an expansionist phase it has been for a long time shell was an example of that lng is in the concentration phase now what is that well g could be made anywhere but bottom line there’s really only two or three places that have the market share the u.s uh and and i’m not sure exactly where in asia might be indonesia or malaysia but but lng is expensive to make and risky and highly volatile and so therefore it really only ends up in the deeper pocketed hands and leverage well where earths are already at the leverage area we see how china pushes our buttons on that and so this nice little graphic here um uh gives you an idea of what’s going to happen in the metals now this is a bigger picture cycle but it’s also smaller picture prices go up somebody opens up a plant silver drops somebody buys all the silver on the debt the volatility shakes out the weaker hands and then when all the silver that you need or whatever commodity that you need is hoarded then you raise prices on everyone and that’s what i think the 232 could be it could be a mini version of that cycle anyway those stories and more uh under goldman gold and kabaddis as strategic weapons the chat very lively obviously um very happy right now thank you uh we agree and we’ll be dropping some uh insights into there in there today from information that we see elsewhere data on deck uh no it’s not unemployment it’s gp let me fix there we go gdp uh nothing scheduled today gdp is on tuesday i think it’s delayed gdp as well it’s not really current jobless claims wednesday christmas we’re closed and friday nothing is scheduled i hope uh everyone had a happy hanukkah and is getting gearing up for uh the christmas celebration let’s take a look at the charts for one brief second you’re going to start getting a lot of targets from people right now and uh that’s fine we have no targets to offer but if you’re looking for targets by the way this was the this was the measured move from here to here from there to there that was 64 and a half and now we’re at 68 and a half so it doesn’t matter you have targets above you can start looking at fibonacci levels you can start saying 167 percent 200 percent start looking at that and and those targets you know it’s not it’s not a science okay what it is is it’s it’s something to focus on you need a profit taking uh you should be looking at your profit taking based on money you need you don’t need the money then then you let it run now i’m not telling you to go out there and get long now that’s crazy uh but maybe it’s not crazy i don’t know uh but one thing i will say is that this market the silver market is is i mean it’s literally in price discovery mode now and price discovery mode it has a definition that definition is there’s no supply and so the market is trying to make supply come online by searching higher see for years for decades i hope the silver miners are listening to this for decades they disincentivized um supply by tamping and dampening down price discovery price never incentivized new discovery and it was always coming out in maybe lease rates once in a while or efps once in a while and those mechanisms would handle it and take it off to the side so price never was permitted to go up disincentivizing more production so any silver producer who’s still producing silver purely or or majorly you know god bless them that was a decade or two of price suppression now we’re in price discovery mode and price discovery mode says hey the price is going to go up now not the lease rates we’re going to basically bypass the lease rates we’re going to bypass the lbma it’s the old mall and we’re going to say at what price will we flush out selling and you’ve already seen one price that was above 50 all the retail is hitting the bid on their coins in small bars and all that metal is being melted down at the thousand ounce bars and being hoarded i don’t know why i don’t know who but i have ideas at some point at some point uh they’ll run into supply that supply may be at 72 74 but there’s someone out there with a shit ton of metal and that’s in the scrap or in the concentrate that hasn’t been uh he bleached yet uh or say someone who’s holding some in the back like a like a bullion bank that’s long that’s saying okay i’m gonna hold it until i see real supply come online well when that happens you’ll hit it and you’ll have a big chunk of supply hit and the market will swoon and then it will re-stabilize and then start to march higher so what i’m saying is i took off two-thirds of my length when the first time i got a little bit nervous so i’m not taking off any for a long time so uh in fact if i take any off now i’ll probably buy silver miners so hat tip to those guys that survived all that gold there you have it the only thing keeping gold down now in my opinion well there’s two things one is there are people out there rotating gold profits into silver longs it’s happening right now funds you’re doing that uh that’s the first thing and the second thing is um well the price is just getting high right the price is getting high the next kicker for gold would be if a tokenized gold product catches fire then the market will go up a lot more all right omits have a great day well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with vince lancey we sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching you
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