On some level, the market is anticipating some sort of financial or fiscal easing coming out of Asia, which is why that’s your catalyst for what’s going on now. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. Today is Monday, and let’s do the market rundown. The title is tentatively silver starts. I was caught a little by surprise on this, having had a full recording scheduled to do and then silver surprised us, and so I’m happily changing gears.

So let’s start with the markets themselves. 10-year yields are down a bit, but at $459, the dollar is $107.88, down $100. This is what’s going on. Yeah, here we go. All right, the S&P $559.87 up 48, the VIX is $16.43, up 29, gold is $26.45, up 6 and change after being down significantly last night. Silver is $30.25, leading to the upside up 67 cents. I have silver futures there on your screen. Copper is $4.15, up 10 cents, 2.7%. So this is what we warned about. This is got to be indirectly somehow related to China.

WTI is $74.60, up 33. Natural gas is $3.67, up 25. Weather, Bitcoin is $99 and change, up 700. Ethereum is $36.33, down 2. Palladium is $9.42, up 18. Platinum is $9.37, up 170. Gold-silver ratio finally breaking a little bit and grains are stronger. Soy is up 17 at $10.04, corn is $4.47, up 6 and wheat is $5.43, up 10. Okay, so consumable commodities are stronger, metals are leading the way, specifically copper followed closely behind silver. This has to be China. So I’m going to pull up China’s chart here. I’m going to be working a little bit extemporaneously.

So let’s pull up China’s chart and see if that theory is correct first. China is up 2.8%. That’s 544 points. You can see that on the left screen. There’s your down day. So it’s a reversal of what happened. On some level, the market is anticipating some sort of financial or fiscal easing coming out of Asia, which is why that’s your catalyst for what’s going on now. What is the catalyst for that? I don’t know, but let’s turn to the market. I’m going to start with Michael Oliver’s comment from last night. I looked at him this morning to get an idea on proper levels for us to be looking at going forward, and they did match up on a couple levels that I had.

All right, the discussion you could see today was supposed to be online gambling. I still have that in, but I’m going to put that in the premium section below, and you can see that it’s actually quite disturbing how gambling, online gambling specifically, especially sports betting, has deteriorated the fabric of our families and our financial wherewithal on so many levels. It may as well be cigarettes or alcohol. All those old-time religious comments, well, they weren’t wrong, and the data is there to prove it. I have the report for you on that, but let’s move to silver.

There’s the homepage. We’ll come back to that. I want to do the silver thing first. All right. Sunday, Michael Oliver’s comment on silver. He had a lot on minors. We’re just going to share with you a little bit on the silver because it’s relevant to this discussion. Action has crafted a lovely three-point downtrend through peak weekly oscillator closes going back to September. Closeout this week at 3034. Remember, he’s in March silver now, and action will close over that pivotal structure. If you see our defined breakouts by gold, silver, and the minors, you can assume the pullback stall of the past few months is over, by low.

Translation for those of you not subscribing or familiar with his momentum indicator, it’s similar to, not the same at all, but it’s corroborated by a market making new lows, but the momentum on the downside not being there. A MACD failing to confirm a low, an RSI failing to confirm a low, and volatility and momentum indicators would also corroborate that. Now, the second part he says here is that if you see his defined breakouts, he’s defined them for every market for gold, silver, and the minors, you can assume the pullback stall the past few months is over.

So basically, if silver breaks out and gold does not, be careful. If silver breaks out and gold follows suit, or vice versa, then we’re off to the races. And silver has broken out. We’re going to get into that right now. On gold he says, for this week, a close at 2658, that’s February gold, would clear the red horizontal. I don’t have that chart showing and all closing readings since that early November headline sell-off. All right. Using a different metric, I want to discuss his points. All right. Let’s look at gold and silver.

For the last almost month, I have been saying that moving averages have been the key to where the buying comes in in gold. Now, I wasn’t sure of that in silver because the moving averages were acting a little differently there. But on the left-hand side of your screen, that’s the gold market. That’s the 100-day moving average. There is buying there. It keeps coming back. I’m not sure who it is. I thought it was related to central bank buying. I still do. However, there may be some macro discretionary coming in and buying now.

I’m not really sure yet. Silver, on the other hand, disappointed, held the 100-day moving average on the right-hand side of your screen a couple of times and then cracked it soundly. And I said, okay, I guess we have to look at the 200-day moving average. And then it cracked that. And I said very recently, maybe even on Sunday, I’m not bullish on gold until silver gets above the 200-day. Well, there you go. I actually may not have said that on Sunday, but I said that very recently. So silver was below the 200-day.

And I said, okay, until it gets above that area, you’re not really bullish on anything in the complex. And here’s where we are. So gold held the 100-day. Silver messed around with the 200-day, and now it’s above it. What does that mean? Well, for me, it means silver, if it’s real, will run to the 100-day, which is 3077. We’re looking at spot. And gold, sky’s the limit. It’s not the limit, but I have levels. I’ll show you those in a second. In fact, let’s pull those up now. On your screen is silver, spot silver, which I prefer for trading.

And March or front month silver which Michael uses for his analysis. Now, one of the things that you’ll note is that silver spot is just entering into the area between the 100 and 200-day moving average, whereas silver futures have pretty much traversed them in one day. That’s encouraging. So I’m going to throw some levels up here now so you can see Michael’s levels compared with, let’s say, ours or juxtaposed with, right? This line here, starting on the right, this line here, this is Michael’s level. We have to settle the week above this level for him to be friendly to the market.

For me, the level is here, and that’s the 100-day moving, the 200-day moving average. They are the same levels for different reasons. I’m very happy to see that. And what that implies is, see this whole structure down here that I have in between this range here? I can remove this line now. I’ve had it there for a while. This was the sell-off that failed to materialize, sold, sold, sold, and you didn’t get confirming new lows. Now, Michael’s system is momentum oriented, so he probably sees something that I’m not showing here, but essentially, let’s get right to the levels here.

I believe that above the 200-day moving average, our next stop will be the 100-day moving average, 3077, similar to what he shows here, meaning above his level, which was here, we get to 3106, okay? So staying with my chart, now that we understand his levels, above the 200-day moving average, we go to the 100-day moving average. I marked those two with lines for you here. Above the 100-day moving average, we should skate to 32, okay? So I guess we should talk about why this is happening a little bit more. We think that China is the reason for it, or the catalyst this morning.

I’ll have to look into it more, but I will say this, there have been bullish factors building up. So for example, it’s getting hard to borrow ETF shares, which is usually a sign of physical demand, number one. Number two, I confirmed a couple of weeks ago that all the coins, all the offload of retail silver being sold back to coin dealers is being remelted into 1,000-ounce bars. There is a need to replenish the COMEX silver vaults, and that metal is showing, manifesting in the fact that 1,000-ounce bars carry a bigger premium than they did a year ago, whereas coins carry a smaller premium than they did a year ago, which is a sign that there is a need to build up the COMEX vault.

Now, why do we need to build up the COMEX vault? Well, it’s something that I’ve been contending for the last two years, and that is all the metal, well, I’m not contending, everyone’s been saying this, the metal is going from west to east. COMEX is a way station, a toll booth, a stopping point. The metal is being refined here, put in the COMEX vault, bought on LBMA, and it ends up in China. So another piece of that puzzle would be China’s vaults. As China’s vaults deplete, COMEX vaults fill so we can replenish China’s vaults.

That’s where the demand is now, folks. China’s vaults started the year out down about, I think, 23 tons. They’re already down for the year. I believe that you’re looking at the flow of physical manifesting in the supply chain that’s going from west to east. Retail sells its coins, refiners melt them down, make them into 1,000 ounce bars. They put them in the COMEX, and this is JP Morgan and the other banks searching for scrap, right? And once that metal is in the COMEX vault, then you see demand coming out of the east.

Well, it’s already coming out of the east, but the COMEX has become a feeder vault for Asia, and we’re witnessing that now. All the more reason you should be scared to death if you’re short silver and copper, and to a lesser extent gold, if China stimulates. It looks like they’re about to stimulate. That’s it. That’s it for the silver part. Again, that was all extemporaneous. I had to be light on my feet today. Gambling is very bad for you. I really recommend you read that if you’re interested at all in the direction of the middle class and lower middle class in this country, because it’s killing us.

All right, news and analysis. This is all relevant. I’m only going to focus on what’s relevant to the markets this morning, right? Goldman’s gold price forecasts, what to watch, very significant. That’s proprietary analysis, basically saying that Goldman’s 3,000 call for gold is valid unless they change their interest rate forecast for the Fed, and I get into that. Charts, gold’s wedge structure breakdown. We did that last week. Very ambitious technical stuff for us. Gold is and is not wedged in now. The wedge contextualized within gold’s long-term trend. There are some concepts here that will discuss the battle between physical demand coming out of Asia and financial control or restraint coming out of the west.

UBS reiterates to buy silver’s dip. Now, where’s the dip? Well, we haven’t had it, at least not to the level that they wanted everyone to buy. That makes me raise an eyebrow when they say to buy the dip. That probably means because they’re buying it right there. I’m not sure. The US-China Thucydides trap, that’s a geopolitical piece. Wednesday, weekend founders reading, significant for multiple reasons. Committee to traders analysis. Friday’s price action raises questions. We have a full video that’s going to come out of that today, but the bottom line of that is the bullion banks are playing again, and the producers are selling again.

Be careful of that if you’re looking at gold. However, I don’t think that’s the way to look at silver right now, because silver is in a demand shortfall, I mean a supply shortfall. If you want to play this, if you want to speculate and play this, might be time to short the gold-silver ratio. That’s the way I look at it. In premium, we have that report. It’s called the Year of Living Dangerously, and it contains the concepts and content. These are four main charts coming out of it. I’m going to show you one.

That’s the consumer credit score changes. The red lines are states that allow online gambling, and the blue lines do not. At least they haven’t. They legalize sports gambling, but they don’t allow it online yet, so it’s kind of like you have to go to your, you have to actually be physically present there, and that’s repulsive to me. Gambling is very bad. All right, final look at the charts. Let’s go to the hourly for silver. Pretty impressive. Let’s see what happens. I don’t think silver gets stomped on today, as long as it doesn’t get stomped on, or if it does get stomped on, as long as it doesn’t settle below, for me, 2970, which comes in at about the 100-day, the 200-day moving average.

That’s it. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show, and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed, financial trading advice, and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.