➡ The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut amidst inflation has sparked concerns of a potential collapse in the US dollar. This could lead to a significant increase in the value of silver, with traders preparing for a possible surge. The gold to silver ratio is also changing, indicating a potential increase in silver’s value. This, combined with a decrease in supply and increase in demand, could lead to the biggest silver run in history.
➡ Major players in the market are buying up silver options, expecting a significant increase in silver prices. This is due to a combination of factors including physical delivery stress, mining output bottlenecks, and upcoming fiscal events. The gold to silver ratio is also falling, indicating a revaluation of silver. This could lead to a historic revaluation of silver, with some analysts predicting silver prices could reach $125 to $150 per ounce.
➡ The HVF model, a tool used to predict market trends, suggests a significant increase in the value of silver. This prediction is based on patterns in market behavior, including a rise in demand and a decrease in supply. The model suggests that silver could reach a value of $333, a figure much higher than most analysts would predict. This increase is expected to occur rapidly, potentially within weeks, and is supported by increased buying activity and a decrease in the value of the dollar.
➡ The demand for silver is increasing rapidly, but the supply can’t keep up due to the majority of silver being a byproduct of mining other metals. This imbalance is causing a crisis where silver becomes scarcer and its price increases. Additionally, the futures market and the physical market are diverging, with physical silver being worth more than paper silver. This situation could lead to a market revaluation, where the real value of silver is recognized and its price significantly increases.
➡ Silver’s value is increasing not just due to inflation, but because it’s essential for modern technologies like solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure. The demand for silver is growing faster than the supply, with industries needing it regardless of its price. Unlike gold, silver is used up and removed from circulation, making it a vital, irreplaceable resource. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is managing a crisis of confidence, with rate cuts and inflation indicating a weakening dollar, which in turn boosts the value of hard assets like silver.
➡ The article discusses the potential for a significant shift in the value of silver due to economic factors such as inflation, interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar. It suggests that as the Federal Reserve struggles to manage a crisis of confidence and the US continues to run trillion-dollar deficits, hard assets like silver could become more valuable. The article also predicts that if the dollar weakens further and inflation continues to rise, the cost of living could increase significantly, leading to a potential societal divide between those who have invested in precious metals and those who have not. Lastly, it suggests that if gold reaches $5,000 and the gold to silver ratio drops, silver could potentially reach or exceed $1000.
➡ Silver’s value is expected to rise significantly due to increasing demand and a shift away from traditional paper money. This isn’t just a temporary increase, but a permanent change in how silver is valued in the global economy. It’s important to protect and grow your wealth during these changing times, and investing in silver can be a part of that strategy. This shift represents a move away from a system based on debt and towards one that values tangible assets like silver.

Despite my advancing years, Elijah, my lifting power has gone from $5,000 in a matter of weeks to $6,000. So I’m sure I’m getting stronger. Or something. Something is moving. You’re watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. The Federal Reserve just pulled the trigger on a rate cut in the middle of an inflation storm. And the fallout is already tearing through global markets. But this isn’t just another monetary movement. This is the spark that could ignite a full blown collapse in the US dollar. And silver. Silver could go absolutely vertical. Whispers from deep inside the options market are getting louder.

And what they’re saying is hard to ignore. $80, $85. Calls for February are being scooped up like lifeboats on a sinking ship. Insiders aren’t betting on a rally. They’re preparing for a detonation. A thousand dollar silver explosion isn’t a fantasy anymore. It’s a scenario traders are actively positioning for. Why now? Because the gold to silver ratio is breaking down in real time, collapsing toward levels we haven’t seen in decades. The HVF model built on years of precision technical analysis is flashing a massive buy signal with targets most investors would have laughed at just months ago. But this isn’t months ago, this is now.

And silver is already surging to all time highs in the cash markets. Meanwhile, the dollar index is teetering at the edge of a cliff, threatening to break below multi year support if it goes. It’s not just a drop, it’s a death spiral. And here’s the part they don’t want you to. The system is cornered. Supply is tapped out, demand is ramping like never before. Central banks are boxed in and institutional money is moving fast. What we’re witnessing might just be the opening act of the biggest silver run in history. Stay with me because what’s coming next could change everything you thought you knew about silver.

Well, I want to report that. You know, despite my advancing years, Elijah, my lifting power has gone from $5,000 shoulder press in a matter of weeks to $6,000. So I’m sure I’m getting stronger or something. Something is moving. Something is moving with great vigor and it’s making me smile. Unfortunately, it’s associated with quite negative things. The currency, which I’m sure we’ll be dipping in to now. But the first thing we have to say is Happy Silver bullet train ride day. It is absolutely ripping. I think last time we checked we approaching 64 on the cash markets.

I think you may even have got higher on the future markets. The big thing I would choose to talk to. I mean, the question I always ask myself if being brought onto a show is what can I say that most people won’t refer to or might not say that adds value for, for someone who’s already a participant, I’m imagining your audience who’s watching us that has seen how we’ve been warning that this is coming. And I’ve mentioned a couple of times I’m the biggest silver bull out there. There are many people that are saying you should already be pivoting into oil or oil stocks and various other things.

And I’m the guy who said, listen, you married Gisele Bundchen. You stop looking over the fence at those other ladies, you’ve won the lottery. And in that sense, without looking to poke Tom Brady and I or anyone else, you’re in the best monetary assets right now for what is a fiat debasement cycle for which the only capital preservation is a monetary asset that holds value regardless of the economic environment, which means in an environment where we’re in the convexity down phase, suddenly, very quickly, Ernest Hemingway’s bankruptcy curve, as I like to call it, slowly at first and suddenly, very quickly.

You are at that suddenly, very quickly. And I think on your show I was warning that we’re in the slippery slope side. And I had that little diagram. It’s kind of like a paying off a mortgage curve. And we’re in the suddenly very quickly phase. And these are your, these are your monetary metals. And this particular one over gold has got a specific supply constraint added into it which is, you know, verging on real, real problems on above ground supply. So it has an accelerant. And if I can add one last point to all of this, we are talking, you and I, the day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in an environment where the average since 2020, the average inflation over the last five years has been 4%.

You’re very close to 3% currently. And you got a rate cut into that environment with also not QE liquidity provisions being announced for the banking system where there is repo market stress already in so cutting rates in a fiat debasement gain. There is no sweeter spot for, for the likes of silver ounces and gold ounces, it has to be said, but particularly silver. So my value add point is the gold silver ratio. When do you get a pause potentially, because this is a ripper at the moment when are you likely to get a pause? So if I may, Elijah and I hand back to you, but I would like to take you to the gold silver ratio chart, but let you have a chance to come back at me after that.

The dollar’s collapse doesn’t start with headlines. It starts with trust. And right now, that trust is eroding at the core. When the Federal Reserve cut rates again this December, despite inflation still running hot, they sent a message to the stability is no longer the priority, liquidity is. And the moment that decision hit the dxy, America’s benchmark dollar index began unraveling. It’s now hovering around 98, down nearly 8% year to date, with multiple failed attempts to reclaim 100. That’s not just a pullback, that’s a breakdown in confidence. And the consequences are rippling outward fast. A weaker dollar hits everything, but it supercharges hard assets.

Commodities across the board are responding, but silver is leading the charge. Why? Because silver isn’t just any asset. It’s the monetary metal that thrives when fiat currencies begin to falter. Unlike gold, which central banks have been quietly accumulating for years, silver has been largely overlooked until now. And that oversight is rapidly flipping to panic as the dollar begins its slide into structural weakness. See, when a reserve currency falters, the world looks for alternatives. In previous cycles, they looked to gold. This time they’re looking at both. And silver, with its dual role as industrial powerhouse and monetary hedge, is positioned to outperform.

With each tick down in the dollar, silver’s trajectory steepens. And the more the Fed cuts into inflation, the more urgent the exit from fiat becomes. This is how dollar spirals start. Slow at first, then sudden. And as the spiral picks up speed, so does silver’s vertical climb. And to jump into that solid statement that you made and concur, we are most certainly in what I call disorderly descent phase of the gold silver ratio. And we’d drawn, we typically put it in a pink box. The fact that for quite an extended period we’d been range bound on the gold silver ratio and we weren’t going to be getting what we wanted until we really let go of that range.

And we determined it’s very much along the lines of a 72 stroke, 75 to 95. It was kind of a 2020 silver ounces to a gold ounce range. And the midpoint we had at about 84. And the big, big key move here is that you’ve really broken the box. We even had this fake break out here and that got knocked back in. And since then it’s been very hard down, hard, hard down. And the level I want to bring to Everybody’s attention here is the 65. I think we’re going to have a 65 run. We’re still in that.

We’re on a three weekly. A bit of an odd time frame. You can look at it fortnightly as well, or even monthly. I just wanted to see the separation in the candle. So I ended up on a rather bizarre time frame here. But it doesn’t matter. The data is the same. We are approaching a level that’s very important. The absolute low here was 62. So that dot there is 62. This was around 64. Now this was. These are all key seminal moments we are talking about economically. Seminal. Let me try to get that word out. Seminal moments down here you’ll see was just mid-2016, early mid-2016.

That was the Shanghai accord China crisis, when China’s property market first start to be exposed for the massive amount of borrowing that they created to keep heat the economy after the 2008 crash. So we had during 2008 a very dead west and China was everything. And Australia skipped through the GFC far more smoothly than the rest of the world on account of selling commodities to China. You might remember that. And then suddenly China did the subprime crash of its own. But the whole world got around it and that was a key event. That’s when we dipped down on the gold silver ratio.

We started to have the uptick tick from gold. It was around 1064 low at that point. It was a localized low. People forget this. And as it was on gold silver ratio, so that 65 is very interesting, you ran 64 there then of course 2021 highs for gold and silver, that was a good surge. That was again at the point here. So this is a very important level generally. It’s a very important level. So we are coming and I expect US to breach 65. But my warning for, for people, particularly people that might be utilizing a bit of leverage and might be have an account that’s.

Something big is happening in the options market and it’s not retail traders making noise, it’s the whales. Over the past few weeks, insiders have been quietly loading up on February silver call options at the 80 and 85 strike prices. Now consider this. When those calls were placed, silver was still trading in the 50s. Today with spot prices already breaching 65 to $67. Those contracts have gone from far out of the money to suddenly deep in the money. That’s not just good timing, that’s precision. And it’s exactly the kind of behavior you see when Major players know something is coming.

Options like these aren’t casual bets. These are leveraged positions designed to profit from explosive upside, the kind of moves that catch the public completely off guard. And the volume is staggering. Open interest has surged to levels we haven’t seen in years, pointing to an expectation, not a hope of a price event so sharp, so vertical, it forces a revaluation of the entire silver market. This isn’t just speculation. This is coordinated positioning. Why February? Because that’s the window. That’s when multiple forces collide. Physical delivery, stress, mining output bottlenecks, the next Fed meeting and a fiscal calendar that’s already straining under deficits.

And with every passing day, the price climbs closer to those strikes. The smart money isn’t waiting for confirmation. They’re already in. And if they’re right, the breakout we’re seeing now is just the beginning. The market is flashing its warning in real time. But only those watching closely can see what’s about to happen next. Just before we get going, we just launched the official Silver News Daily Telegram. To kick things off, we’re running a 10 ounce silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver, not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This telegram will be our new home for real time silver discussions, market insights, collection picks and everything.

Precious metals. It’s where the community truly comes alive. Here’s how to enter the 10 ounce silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube, turn on the notification bell, comment 10 ounce giveaway on three separate videos, be an active member of the telegram group and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we’ll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So get in early, stay active. Absolutely. Singing right now. Great, congratulations, but be careful. What I suspect is going to happen is you probably run certainly I would imagine that low, the 65 itself, which is the red line.

And then I imagine you could even run this low, which dropped to 62, but at some point you might get a bounce, which I’d call a continuation pattern. It might be a flag, it could be instead a rising wedge, but in the long run. Or let me draw that more neatly. Sorry for the sketchy line. Let’s do straight lines so it looks better. You could get a little bounce of a rising wedge. So the only people who are going to get hurt in this are people that are chasing the top. So after it runs 65, it would be a bad time to go whaling in with disproportionate size and that’s More the kind of a mistake a newbie or an intermediate would might make that if you’re trading with leverage.

So. So there’s a possibility. That doesn’t mean there has to be at all. This might be so disorderly bad that the spill just continues and it’s just a complete runaway. It depends what news flow you get. Key levels can be run. I’m just saying the possibility is higher that you get some form of reversal just after the 65 to the 62 period which is the low here. My suspicion of most likely as you make a slightly lower low than here and you have some small. I don’t think it’s going to be significant. Does this affect a stacker? Not particularly.

Just buy on the rally. You might get a tiny pullback if you. If you’ve got new cash for investing in silver overall the next level for us generally for me is you’re going to meet 32 and you will then be at this zone here. Why is 32 significant? These, these numbers I’m throwing out 65 and 32. We, we spoke on your channel before about the possibility of this being a head and shoulder. So that’s the Shanghai accord there this was the blow the gold silver ratio when we broke out here we incorrectly. So we must own where we.

We thought listen if we have a demand destroying event it’s possible that you could break higher when you broke higher and that you could go higher on the gold silver ratio before you got the down move because this shoulder has now got quite big. But it turned down almost as we said it and started to reverse violently. So we still in the possibility of a messy. I’m not going to tell you this is a textbook head and shoulder. Some imperfect patterns work brilliantly. Some ideal almost diagrammatic ones fail. So you don’t have this perfect beauty in a pattern that always guarantees you an outcome and a messier one not to but the move here is very very violent and the target from that head and shoulder.

So why the 32? You’ll see these projections come from the high down to that same 65 neckline. So so we are projecting and interestingly it gives a low of 32 and then when you revert back to the 2011 high. So remember targets are typically again where you might get continuation. So I’m just trying to warn people at what values of gold silver ratio might. The most telling signal in this unfolding silver storm isn’t the price, it’s the ratio. The gold to silver ratio is in free fall. And for anyone who’s been in this market long enough.

That’s the clearest sign we’re heading into a historic revaluation. Earlier this year, the ratio hovered between 90 and 95, meaning it took nearly 95 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. But today, that ratio has collapsed to around 65, and it’s still falling. This isn’t just a technical breakdown. It’s a shift in perception, a sign that silver is being revalued relative to gold at an accelerating pace. Throughout history, every major silver bull run has been accompanied by a violent contraction in this ratio. In 1980, it dropped below 20. In 2011, it touched the low 30s.

And now, with gold breaking above $2,300 in silver surging past $65, the path is being cleared for a return to those extreme levels. Analysts are already floating targets of 32 and. And in scenarios of extreme monetary debasement, Even single digits aren’t off the table. At a ratio of 32, if gold pushes toward 4,000 or $5,000, as some projections suggest, silver would be trading at 1:25 to $150 per ounce. And that’s still conservative compared to what some models are projecting. But this isn’t just about historical analogs. The compression is being driven by something deeper. Silver is finally being recognized, not just as a laggard, but as the outperformer in a system under stress.

The gold to silver ratio isn’t just a metric. It’s a signal. A signal that the tide is turning and that silver’s time as the underdog is over. When this ratio snaps, silver doesn’t walk. It runs. And right now, it’s already gaining speed. You get slight pullback periods. The running of the 65 to the 62, possibly. And then here again. And the interesting part about this, let’s just say they’re both rising wedges that, you know, that rally before falling. I don’t think they’ll be necessarily huge or vast. But that run will also bring you back to the valuations we met in gold and silver at the last bull high of 2011, which was 1920, 1927.

Gold, and don’t forget silver was almost $50 then. It made 49 in 2011. And on some exchanges, you may have even had a technical trade at 50. So gold is a lot higher now. It’s 4200. So you can only imagine what silver will be down here at those levels. You can do the math. So a trajectory for the gold silver ratio might look something like that. And Then up and then further down now, now I’ve shown up on your show many times as my justification for being the single largest bull on silver. There is despite others saying, you know, really should be looking at, as I’ve mentioned going to oil and others, this chart on the gold silver ratio has come from much lower lows.

We’ve previously had 15 as standard levels for the lengthy period, sometimes even single digits, tens, et cetera. And it’s part of the financialization of everything era of way back that came in kind of post Falko and everything that we’d had such high numbers for the gold silver ratio. So we’ve also speculated that if you get to the 32 level. So I’m, I’m now building narrative on top of narrative. There’s quite a bit of IPS and points of failure in here, but assuming we get there, so we have our bounce here, we rally, we come here, we have some form of continuation.

You will then have a far larger, and this is, you sometimes get this nestling effect of head and shoulders. You’ll have a far larger, this will all be ahead. You’ll potentially have a shoulder rally here at the 32. And then we are in another reversal structure which if done takes you to a measured 8.22. That’s a single digit. So I’ve shown up and said the overreaction of markets. We will potentially see you at a single digit gold silver ratio and at a point where gold will be a lot, lot higher. So in terms of scenario casting, I’ve taken you a bit far into the future here.

You shouldn’t be counting too many chickens before they hatch, but this is the big guide plan of how things really, really get insane for valuation for this metal over here. Let me hand back to you. Francis Hunt’s HVF model isn’t your average technical tool. It’s a battle tested framework designed to catch explosive asymmetric breakouts before they happen. And right now it’s pointing directly at silver with a target so aggressive most mainstream analysts wouldn’t dare say it out loud. $333. That’s the figure. And it’s not based on emotion or wild speculation. It’s built on structural chart patterns, volatility, compression and the kind of breakout behavior that precedes massive moves in commodities.

The current setup in Silver is textbook hvf. You’ve got a tight volatility squeeze, breakout through key resistance, sustained momentum on increasing volume, and now confirmation. The model isn’t just flashing green, it’s screaming that Silver has already entered phase two of the move, with the next leg aiming straight for triple digits. Francis has identified key continuation zones and the next target on the ladder is $91. After that, the model opens wide, $128, then $333. And in these types of vertical moves, it doesn’t take years, it can take weeks. What makes the HVF model so compelling is that it’s built on real market psychology.

It captures when sellers are exhausted, when buyers are stepping in with force, and when the market is entering what Hunt calls a disorderly advance. We’re in that zone now. And with whales piling into options, physical demand outpacing supply, and the dollar breaking down, all the ingredients are lining up exactly as the HVF model predicted. This isn’t a drill. The pattern is playing out in real time. And if past HVF signals are any indication, this is the kind of setup that doesn’t come around often. When it does, it tends to leave a trail of disbelief in its wake until the numbers hit.

So I, I expect Silver is going to continue until we’ve it’s upside in terms of the move that we’re seeing on the gold silver ratio here. So until we’ve got through the 65 and probably even tested the previous low, which could mean we technically run it. So somewhere there between 50. What was that low? I think I said 62. Let’s just double check it. The, the low on the gold silver ray. 62. And I think you can still run the technical level. There’s a habit of it, call it the stop loss being run. Not many people trade the gold silver ratio, but typically levels just get run as well to test the load.

So once they’re in that kind of momentum, there’s a tendency to overshoot. So we are going further up short term. I’m not closing my leverage longs. I just don’t think it’s anymore the best entry point. You would have to go exceedingly small with very deep stops on the basis that you might get some more upside. But then there could be degrees of pullback of some scale that could occur. But I do also want to highlight some other anecdotes which is not technical and that is that we’ve seen on the call or the number of people are commentating that the calls at the 80 and 85 strikes for February delivery are contracts.

So that’s not very far out. That’s two and a half months. Two months. Between two and two and a half months. I’m not Exactly. Sure. When in February. I would need to check that for the futures, the next delivery date. Maybe someone can put that in the comments for us below so everyone gets the heads up. But you’re, you’re around two months at most, two and a half months and, and the buying calls with an 80 and 85 strike, the volume on that has gone up immensely, which is really interesting for us because in our more traditional silver setup we’ve called for.

So let’s show the actual silver chart. It’s almost remiss of us that it’s taken this long in the interview to get to that point that in, in our viewpoint we are making the footsteps. We have an interim level target on our HVF method that’s 91. Now were that to happen, those 80 and 85 calls would be in the money. So people have been buying Whilst in the 50s we’re really, really short term, I would say possibly with no more than two months, three months in them and aggressively we’re very far out of the money calls on the silver market at the value of the strikes of 80 and 85.

And when you see volume, forgive me for mentioning 9 11, but I refer to the airlines being shorted, it’s often there’s some news or information, people with confidence. You know, when people are backing something with big money, it’s usually wealthy people who are well informed or potentially even insiders. So you know, make of it what you will, but I find that an interesting anecdote on the fundamental side, going back to the technical opinions, which is our four. Silver has already done what many thought was impossible. It’s shattered its all time high. As of mid December, the spot price has broken through the $65 barrier with moments where it even pierced $67.

That makes this more than just a rally. This is a confirmed breakout. And the trajectory is parabolic. Forget the resistance levels, they’ve been bulldozed. What we’re witnessing now is a vertical market where sellers step back, liquidity dries up and prices climb in sudden violent bursts. And here’s the part that should make every investor sit up. This move didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s the culmination of months of buildup, surging industrial demand, chronic supply deficits, relentless physical buying and a growing sense that the monetary system itself is unraveling. Silver has risen nearly 130% year to date, with a staggering 30% gain in just the past month.

These aren’t normal numbers. This is what happens when a market that’s been suppressed for Years finally breaks free. Even more telling is what’s happening beneath the surface. Cash markets are tightening fast with premiums spiking as physical metal becomes harder to source. Comex inventories are being drawn down and whispers of delivery stress are circulating. Futures are lagging behind, physical prices showing clear signs of disconnect. And in a market as thin and volatile as silver, once momentum takes over, price moves tend to overshoot wildly. This breakout is not a blow off top, it’s not the end of the move, it’s the beginning of a repricing event.

And the way this market is moving, the next stop isn’t just $70, it’s triple digits. The fuse is lit, the detonation has started. And if you’re still waiting for confirmation, you’ve already missed it. Okay, so here that silver chart that we were promising to show you and as I say, apologies for taking so long into the chat to actually get it up because it the main event We’ve got a 333 target. You can see it pointing to that over there. You are in between the interim levels. We had an interim at 40, you had a pause and a pullback and we expect it to rip to the next level.

So you go from these are levels, interim level one, interim level two and then full target. At each of these levels there’s typically a pullback and a bit of churn and some time elapses, can’t answer how much. But in between that it’s like a horse and fences. It gets a full gallop to make a jump. And this is a level so you tend to lose a bit of speed just before maybe struggle, have a pause. And this is in and around 91. So I do think, you know, if we do bounce at 65, I don’t think it’s going to be the most, you know, lengthy and protracted and it is possible for us to spill right through.

So we’ll see potentially 91 run here at this interim and you overshoot normally, which could technically mean you might get a touch at a three digit and then rejection. So there’s such a big round number that’s never been traded of course as we’re making all time highs now for the first time in silver. There’s such a big number at 100 waiting there. So it’s tempting to think you might actually get that test. That’s going to be headlines by the way. The bank of International Settlements and the Financial Times are both tying. So the best said gold and silver, precious metals are a bubble and associated it to the stock market.

I’m going to say they’re completely different things. The stock market is in hypervaluation by most measures. But that’s because debased fiat needs a place to hide. And some of it has gone into the stock market. It is overvalued by many, many measures. Gold and silver, in terms of their long term, far bigger cycle are not in a bubble. They are not things that tend to get in a bubble. The fiat and debt debasement is the bubble. And in actual fact, you are going to go a lot, lot higher on a far grander cycle. This one’s going to be the gift that keeps giving long after people can believe it’s true.

Because, you know, just think of what I’m saying to you and I have been saying for a very long time. $333 as a target. By the way, this pattern triggered. We had a squeeze within a squeeze. We call that a primer. Right there was our initial break at $25. That was the last time we were going to see 25. And then the main pattern broke at 30. You can see these green numbers, 30 and 25. Since then you have been in an absolute rip. And you’re going to my opinion, four or three digits number. I think there’s a chance.

I’m not saying it will happen and that’s my 50 or more percent. But some of those calls may in fact end up in money, which is going to be very good time for stackers. If in the next few months you continue to pick off sixes, sevens and then cross eights and you start to get to this targets, these targets. That would be a. There’s a hard truth silver investors have had to live with for years. There simply isn’t enough primary silver production to meet demand. Unlike gold, which is mined intentionally, over 70% of the world’s silver comes as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, zinc and lead.

That means when silver demand explodes, as it is right now, supply can’t just ramp up to match it. The system is structurally inelastic. And that bottleneck is becoming a major flashpoint in this unfolding surge. Let’s put the numbers on the table. Global mine production in 2024 was around 820 million ounces. This year it’s forecast to reach 835 million, less than a 2% increase. Meanwhile, industrial demand alone is projected to surpass 700 million ounces. And that doesn’t even include investment demand, which is spiking. The result, a projected supply deficit between 149 and 206 million ounces for 2025.

And it’s not a one off. This is the fifth year in a row of deficits with a cumulative shortfall approaching 800 million ounces since 2021. New mines, forget it. Primary silver mines are rare, expensive to develop and face endless permitting delays. Even if one were approved today, it could take 15 to 20 years before it begins production. Recycling is ticking up, but it can only go so far. There is no magic lever to pull. The supply side is boxed in. And with demand rising relentlessly, the imbalance is reaching critical mass. This isn’t just a squeeze, it’s a slow motion crisis.

One where physical silver becomes scarcer, premiums explode and price becomes the only release valve. Every dollar higher is a signal to the market. There’s not enough metal to go around. And with no meaningful new supply on the horizon, silver’s price isn’t just reacting, it’s screaming that the market is broken. Very, very interesting developments. And then after we’ve hung about, maybe at the 191 range, you’ll go into again. And this is where the bulk of your wealth is truly going to be met. Don’t forget I’ve log scaled this chart. Elijah, I just wanted for a second just put this so that people can appreciate the debasements in the dollar.

You need to think of this as dollar debasement. That is what you stand to get after the 91. It’s not the end of the move. Anything that happens and pauses here then is going to be a horse with open territory. Hi ho Tonto. I’m tempted to say with an open charge to there and the open fields are covered at a gallop. That is my overall assessment. Here’s why it’s different. There is no peak oil. Oil is continually created under the earth’s crust. It’s not rare decomposed dinosaur bone juice. There is a real lack of silver specific miners.

A massive percentage of silver is anecdotal secondary supply that comes out of copper mines, gold mines, iron ore mines, other product mines. In actual fact there is a shortage. Plus the barriers to starting new mines. From a permitting point of view, in particularly the first world currencies remain high and have to be rolled back. And bringing a mine to market is a 15, 20 year endeavor. So the supply ain’t going to get fixed in a hurry. Totally different and very few silver miners. We very aggressively long certain miners as well, many of them US miners. This is going to turn them into absolute cash hemorrhaging machines.

I can’t be more bullish. I’m hoping I’m leaving the guys excited on the silver front. It is the silver lining to what is going to be a very sad fiat debasement story. But it will outperform even the debasement itself as it outperforms gold. And I’ve spoken many times, people need gold ounces as their new basis of account for their wealth. And this is not only a smart investment, it’s an investment for your family as part of a transgenerational important act that you do for your children. So again, let me hand back to you. There’s a growing fracture between the futures market and the real world.

And it’s widening by the day. While silver futures try to keep pace, the physical market is starting to run its own race. Prices in the cash market are outpacing the comex, premiums are surging, and delivery delays are mounting. This isn’t just volatility. It’s a breakdown in the pricing mechanism itself. A sign that the paper silver market can no longer keep up with real world demand. At the heart of this divergence is one critical Futures contracts can be printed endlessly, but physical silver cannot. And right now, the appetite for real metal bars, coins, industrial grade deliveries is overwhelming the system.

Wholesalers are reporting shortages, mints are rationing supply, and even large volume buyers are struggling to lock in orders without paying steep premiums. Meanwhile, the COMEX still shows a nominal price that doesn’t fully reflect this stress. It’s a disconnect that can’t last forever. The tension is building. Physical buyers don’t trust paper prices. Investors are paying 10%, 15%, even 20% above spot just to secure delivery. And behind the scenes, there’s growing concern that the vaults backing these contracts aren’t as full as they need to be. We’ve seen this movie before. 2011, 2020, when retail demand collided with a tightly wound futures market and caused brief but brutal price dislocations.

But this time, the pressure is systemic. This is the kind of fracture that leads to revaluation when enough players stop trusting the benchmark. When too many contracts chase too little metal, the market doesn’t correct. It snaps. And when that snap comes, the futures price won’t lead the breakout, it’ll chase it. The signal is clear. Real silver is worth more than paper silver, and the market is preparing to reprice accordingly. Platinum is to silver what silver is to gold, in my opinion. So actually, as probably the most bullish person in silver, I’m the most Bullish person on platinum.

I just think we’re going through stages. The availability of platinum is incredibly low. I don’t think it has true price discovery mechanism. You’re looking at 140 of 190 tons of platinum coming out of Southern Africa, which is a small contribution from Zimbabwe. The rest from my home country of South Africa. The rest is coming from Russia, largely to make up deep into the 80s supply of platinum. It is both harder than this metal, this beautiful metal, which is still very beautiful. It’s harder and doesn’t tarnish. It’s more dense than gold. It won’t scratch as jewelry like gold does.

It is a phenomenal metal. The only reason many people don’t see it as a monetary metal is it’s relatively new metal compared to gold because it was so difficult to find. And on the scarcity side, if you look at production, you’re talking 190 tons of platinum, as I’ve mentioned, per year, of which 140 plus comes from South Africa and another 11, 11 or 20 up somewhere, don’t quote me exactly, comes from Russia. So you’re probably looking at, as I say, 80% being from the BRICS nations. And if you look at the ratio to the 3,300 ounces of gold, you’re, you’re.

Well, I’ll do the maths with you, but I’m pretty sure that’s around 17. I know I’ve done it before, I want to double check my numbers. But if we do 190 divided by 3, 300, let’s just stay with 3, 300. It’s about 5.7% the supply. So to get up to that, you’re at about 16 or 17. I’m just going to invert 5.7% there. We’ll get the answer. And 17.36. Then you look at silver. Silver funnily enough, is coming down in its ratio. I think it was David Morgan, Silver Guru 22 that was talking about the percentage of silver output to gold and how it was nines, eights, sevens each year as we’re getting more recent and the last year it’s at about 6.9 ounces coming out of the ground per gold.

And that’s part of not having specialist silver miners because you don’t control the secondary supply. You’re digging a hole for copper, you’re digging a hole for gold, you’re digging a hole for lead or iron. You know, you really stumble by accident on any silver that’s down there. And that, that can be quite A small contribution, but it adds up over a lot of mines looking for other things. So because of the lack of silver specific mines, I think that’s why that number is dropping down. If we had more silver miners purely, they would be going primarily down for silver.

I think we’d go back up to the, you know, the 7 or eights. But even if I. Let’s just take the 8 as a multiple times by 8 that 7.3, we’re at about 138, 139 silver ounces that are found before you find a single ounce of platinum. So if we took the, as you mentioned, the, the 64, if I times that by 64, so 138.9 times 64, platinum should be at 8, 8, 9, 2. If you’re just talking all prices by scarcity. And there are platinum specific mines, just not very many of them. Silver isn’t just rising because of inflation or financial fear.

It’s rising because the modern world literally can’t function without it. Behind the headlines of this rally is a deep structural force. Industrial demand that refuses to slow down. Solar, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, advanced electronics. These aren’t trends, they’re revolutions. And silver sits at the heart of all of them. Unlike gold, which is mostly hoarded, silver is consumed, it gets used up, permanently removed from circulation. And right now, that usage is accelerating at a rate the supply side simply can’t match. Start with solar. In 2025 alone, the solar industry is projected to consume between 200 and 261 million ounces of silver.

Nearly a third of total global production. That’s not speculation. That’s already priced into contracts and buildouts happening worldwide. As governments double down on green energy mandates, silver’s role in photovoltaic cells, where no viable substitute exists, becomes even more critical. Solar demand is rising 16 to 20% year over year, and it shows no signs of slowing. Then there’s electric vehicles. Each EV requires 25 to 50 grams of silver embedded across everything from batteries to circuit boards. As production scales into the tens of millions of units per year, that adds up quickly. And when you layer on the boom in AI data centers with their need for high performance electronics, plus the ever growing appetite for consumer tech, what you get is a wall of demand that’s price insensitive.

These industries don’t care if silver is $30 or $130. They need it and they’ll buy it. The result, over 60% of all silver demand is now industrial and growing. Unlike gold, which can be stored away in vaults for decades, silver is being burned through product by product, chip by chip. And that’s the real kicker. Every ounce consumed by industry is an ounce that will never come back. The market is waking up to this reality and it’s beginning to price silver not just as a metal, but as a vital irreplaceable resource. One or two have even shut shafts because they weren’t getting enough money for how hard it was to get such a small amount of that metal.

So. So I managed to be tiny bit more bullish. Platinum, although we’re not seeing it yet on the most recent price behavior, platinum made a big, big target. So let’s cover some of that. Technically I just want to just show that this target of 1600 came out of a setup. I think I’ve done this draw with you before. We had an HBF setup there. Very, very tight, very nice squeeze, good risk, reward, trade. I was lucky enough to get at the 890s and the 900s and then we had a fantastic run up to that target there.

So we post target. So it’s kind of in its churning pause period, the kind of thing that silver might do at 91. And that could be a key point where you’ll see platinum doing catch up. Because the precious metals aren’t going to come off the boil. Generally it’s just the case of how do you ensure you’re in the hottest one at the key moments? Possibly I would close a little bit of my leverage longs at 91 run strokes for a short period and jump into a little overweight a little bit more. The platinum ones during that time frame.

The only reason platinum underperformed for this period is because of substitution and the green agenda because it was predominantly industrial demand, which has been rolled back a fair amount. And now palladium no longer is $200 and was a cheap substitute for platinum when platinum had hit 3,000 before and 2,000. So your observation that platinum is the only precious metal of the major three not at a new all time high is a very good one. And I think it’s going to be cheap. I consider platinum cheap gold and it goes higher than gold. That’s my long term run.

So I think the multiplier you will get on platinum is huge. Especially if you’re in the US and you’re not paying vat. Bear in mind the Europeans are not demanding it because it’s treated like silver more as an industrial metal and you’re paying VAT Also. The dealer spreads are quite a lot wider, but I’ve Looked at this and I’ve said I pay the spreads, I’m happy to do it. It looks like a lot of fixed costs and people go back to either silver or gold. No, it’s cheap gold. You’re buying it for half the price of gold.

And I think it finishes higher than gold in the end and possibly a multiple higher. Could be 20%, it could be two or three times because it’s so thin, so very bullish on the, on the platinum side, let’s just refer one more point. You could see the amazing setups and the huge runs you had in previous markets. And as I’ve highlighted, this is a falling wedge. And the only reason that’s a falling wedge, which is similar to this structure but not a, a symmetrical triangle, is because of that selling across the top and that making marginally lower lows brought about by substitution.

So when you talk about platinum, you should also think of the platinum group of metals for which platinum is the largest and most dominant. There is no inside the set substitution easily available anymore because palladium’s only a couple of hundred dollars behind it, sitting. Last time I looked at 1200, 1400. When this occurred, this period from 08 to 24, you had platinum in the thousands and you had palladium at 200, and you had the green agenda. So platinum was almost suppressed, like many people think. Silver’s been suppressed by the derivative markets, only there was an industrial structural angle to that suppression.

And I think anything that’s been suppressed has an even more tightened spring and a bigger move to the upside. So let me hand back to you. The Federal Reserve isn’t managing the economy anymore. It’s managing a crisis of confidence. And in December, that crisis deepened. With inflation still hovering near 3%. The Fed delivered yet another rate cut the third of the year, lowering its benchmark to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But here’s the Cutting rates into persistent inflation doesn’t fix anything. It only proves one the Fed is trapped. They can’t hike without imploding the debt markets, and they can’t ease without accelerating inflation.

So they’re doing both, trying to thread a needle that’s already torn wide open. This latest move wasn’t about supporting growth, it was about survival. Behind the scenes, repo markets are flashing stress, liquidity is drying up, and the Treasury’s appetite for issuing new debt is colliding with a wall of investor fatigue. The US Is running trillion dollar deficits with no end in sight. And the only way to keep the machine running is to print more money and suppress borrowing costs. But that strategy has consequences, and silver is responding. Every time the Fed signals dovishness, the dollar weakens.

Every time inflation refuses to drop, real yields fall deeper into negative territory. And in that environment, hard assets thrive, gold benefits, but silver explodes. Because silver doesn’t just respond to inflation, it responds to financial repression. When interest rates are artificially held below inflation, when confidence in the dollar erodes, and when the system chooses liquidity over discipline, silver becomes the escape hatch. What we’re seeing isn’t policy, it’s panic. The central bank is no longer acting proactively, it’s reacting to the fires it helped start. And the markets are waking up to that reality. The monetary narrative has shifted and the old playbook no longer works.

The only question now is how long it takes before that shift turns into a stampede and silver, already breaking records, becomes the asset of last resort. It definitely calls for another share I want to talk to you about the dollar, Elijah, and I think especially with an American audience. By the way, to all my American friends, their subscribers to your channel, and anyone from anywhere else in the world, have a amazing and Merry Christmas. I’m not sure we’ll be speaking again before the year has turned, but as someone exposed to the US dollar, I want to just show you a couple of key charts here.

You’ve just had two inverted candles. Let me make this a bit bigger and a bit more apparent and I’ll drop time frames as well. I just to start you off at a logical place that you can see the full picture. Since the subprime crisis, the dollar has been in a channel range heading upwards against the likes of other western peers. The Euro is the largest participant in the Dixie at about 52 53%. There’s also the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen which has been very weak as part and component, the British pound, and a little bit of krona from Sweden.

But I want to highlight that these two inverted candles on this basing ascending grind line. So that is the lower line of a train channel. You are leaning on those. Twice you’ve gone up to the hundred and you’ve been rejected back down. Twice you’ve gone up to the hundred and being rejected back down. I’m on a 3 monthly which is a quarterly chart. I’m going to take you in a little closer and show you that scenery. You are essentially in a wedge between the hundred and the Dixie. Started I think it was 71 or 72. Again, correct me in the comments below.

We all Appreciate it that the Dixie started at 100 and today it’s sitting just under 198 and you’ve just been rejected down. And I’m highlighting that we’re doing interest rate cuts into a fiat and debt debasement. So that’s actually trying to say the debt’s worth more. That’s been extremely proliferated. What’s actually happened on the US tenure is rates have gone up. We’ve also shown on your channel and said higher for longer in the markets, particularly on the long end. And coming for the short end, the Fed has moved more of its debt onto far shorter time frame where they have a little bit more control on rates.

But the contagion starts at empires die at the fringes. You know, the Goths started taking Roman towns on the far flung perimeters of the empire. That is the long end of the debt market that is starting to be foregone. One of our big predictions for next year, Elijah, which is going to have real impact on housing, is that we’re going to have the six major nations through 6% during 2026. On the long end debt, it could even go to the 10 year, but we’re seeing on the 20 and the 30, Japan, US, UK, a number of European countries.

I’m including France in that, a very core one. We’ve got Australia looking very precarious on the debt, all that. We’ve looked at big G7 type nations all going through 6%. Six by six. Going through six, that’s dangerous number. As a biblical man, I’m sure you’ll know and that’s our forecast and that means money going out of debt and the debt further devaluing. Remember, interest rate up, debt valuation down. You need to pay a higher yield to get more people to buy. They want to buy for less and they want to be paid more. Why? Because there’s too much of it about.

It’s proliferation, fiat and debt bubble, not gold bubble. What does that do? That is the turbo juice for those numbers, those crazy numbers I’ve been throwing at you on silver. The Federal Reserve isn’t managing the economy anymore, it’s managing a crisis of confidence. And in December, that crisis deepened. With inflation still hovering near 3%, the Fed delivered yet another rate cut the third of the year, lowering its benchmark to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But here’s the Cutting rates into persistent inflation doesn’t fix anything. It only proves one thing. The Fed is trapped. They can’t hike without imploding the debt markets.

And they can’t ease without accelerating inflation. So they’re doing both, trying to thread a needle that’s already torn wide open. This latest move wasn’t about supporting growth, it was about survival. Behind the scenes, repo markets are flashing stress, liquidity is drying up. And the Treasury’s appetite for issuing new debt is colliding with a wall of investor fatigue. The US is running trillion dollar deficits with no end in sight. And the only way to keep the machine running is to print more money and suppress borrowing costs. But that strategy has consequences. And silver is responding. Every time the Fed signals dovishness, the dollar weakens.

Every time inflation refuses to drop, real yields fall deeper into negative territory. And in that environment, hard assets thrive, gold benefits, but silver explodes. Because silver doesn’t just respond to inflation, it responds to financial repression. When interest rates are artificially held below inflation, when confidence in the dollar erodes, and when the system chooses liquidity over discipline, silver becomes the escape hatch. What we’re seeing isn’t policy, it’s panic. The central bank is no longer acting proactively, it’s reacting to the fires it helped start. And the markets are waking up to that reality. The monetary narrative has shifted and the old playbook no longer works.

The only question now is how long it takes before that shift turns into a stampede. And silver, already breaking records, becomes the asset of last resort. And there’s upside in gold to come in platinum. People are going to be moving into stores of long term value. And that is physical, not digital. It’s not debt. And we’re seeing this move. If the dollar, the Dixie breaks this line, that could be a very stark turning for what has been a weak grinding up upward trend since subprime for the dollar. And it had a very broad range and we’ve been bouncing in that range for an extended period.

If you cut rates into escalating inflation, and inflation is my second prediction for next year, you’re going to hear far more about the cost of living, the cost of goods, people not coming out, disposable income. It’s going to be a tough midterms for Trump and it’s going to get even tougher after as more complaints and these notions of giving $1,000 for children and all of these ASP are part and parcel of repurposing things that have been taken off tariffs. We mentioned that tariffs was a tax on Americans. China still had a trillion, a near record surplus trade.

And everyone said, well, some of it, less of it was to America nonsense. Go look at the Vietnam, the Philippines and Mexico’s numbers. What do you think is happening? Construction and Chinese goods are passing through or being repurposed to other countries in the same way Europe is buying Russian oil, oil via Indian refineries and just paying a whole bunch more. It is a tax on Americans and it’s a small step in to give back these little gifts that are being muted. It’s political, it’s very political to try buy affection back for a government that is taxing its citizens through tariffs and currency debasements.

The cost of living for Americans, particularly Westerners generally is going to get a lot, lot higher if this breaks. And the only thing you do is silver and gold. So we’ve talked about silver, gold, the gold silver ratio and I brought you back and I’m finishing right here with the dollar. This is a concerning point of breaking. We’ve just the day after cutting into an inflation rate that is higher by 50% than the target and in my opinion is grossly understated. We’re going to have a people’s revolution. And you know when it starts to hit the bread markers, consumer credit went to 5 trillion.

And the aspects of consumption on those credit cards, which is the highest and most expensive credit is daily, daily, daily things. Bread, groceries and other necessities for families in America. I’m afraid to say our success in the silver investing is going to be as part of pain for the masses that are not invested in precious metals. This is a polarizing event for society. You either protect your wealth or you get totally debased and you end up on welfare and ward of state, which is a grand communism agenda as far as I’m concerned. All the pieces are now in motion and the silver thesis isn’t just intact, it’s accelerating.

We’re no longer talking about whether silver can reach $100. The conversation has shifted to whether it can overshoot straight through it. Because when you add it all up, monetary debasement collapsing dollar parabolic industrial demand, supply starvation, institutional accumulation and now options activity betting on vertical moves the case for 1000. Silver doesn’t sound like fantasy anymore. It sounds like math. Let’s play it out. If Gold hits $5,000, which is well within range in this cycle, and the gold to silver ratio compresses to just 40 to 1, silver hits $125. If the ratio plunges to 21, which it did in 1980, silver pushes to $250.

But if we see a full blown flight from fiat where hard assets become the last Safe harbor and silver’s dual industrial monetary role drives a demand panic. Then a price tag of $500, $750, even $1,000 is no longer absurd. It becomes a reflection of the system’s failure to hold value in paper. That’s what this rally represents. Not a commodity boom, but a monetary rebellion. The whales see it, the options markets reflect it, the physical premiums confirm it. And the HVF technicals are mapping it. The market is realigning, the pricing mechanisms are being rewritten. And what’s coming next isn’t just a rally.

It’s a repricing of silver’s role in the global system. We are entering the vertical phase, not just in price, but in narrative. And once the mainstream catches on, it won’t be a question of who’s early anymore. It’ll be a scramble to avoid being last 100%. And thank you for that opportunity as always, friends, as we come to a period to celebrate with family and everything else and you’re thinking of your goals and objectives for next year, I can’t state more aggressively and unequivocally that investing for capital retention has never been more, more important than ever before because we are in the acceleration point right now.

You only have to look at a long term gold chart to recognize that the fiat and debt debasement trend that we have been calling the hyper stagflation, which means low wages, job losses, tough economic environment here, whilst escalating costs are designed to drive you into poverty. You have to for your quality of life and your freedoms, secure your wealth. It has never been more important if you’re thinking about those goals. Our community is set up specifically for these economic times that we have assessed all along is coming. Most of what we predicted is coming true on the long term and it’s really important to accelerate that to build your wealth.

Precious metals is part of it, but there’s a lot more. Building wealth, protecting wealth and securing your freedoms which can involve some international travel and establishing a footprint beyond just the US borders to protect you from a hegemony that is fraying at the edges of its empire. Sadly, I don’t wish it. It’s not a Christmas message I want to leave you with, but it is an obstacle course. You were born for these times. You take action, you survive and you go on to thrive from them. Being inert and watching it take place is not a strategy.

It is sleeping when the barbarians are at the gates. So join us. There’s links in the YouTube to join us for a call and a chat or just watch our videos and have some fun for free on YouTube. And there’s a free mini series about HBF method, our unique manner in which we exploit low volatility events to fast asymmetric reward trades which are throwing off multiple opportunities to break into this massive silver, gold and platinum move. Silver is no longer just a metal, it’s becoming a message. A message that trust in fiat is crumbling, that the system built on debt and dilution is finally cracking, and that the world is quietly choosing a different store of value.

What we’re witnessing is the birth of a new silver paradigm where silver doesn’t just track inflation or play second fiddle to gold, but leads the charge as both a scarce industrial input and a monetary lifeboat. This isn’t theory anymore, it’s unfolding in real time. Supply deficits are becoming permanent. Demand is scaling with megatrends that aren’t slowing down. Central banks are boxed in by their own policies and capital. Smart, institutional aggressive capital is moving. But what makes silver truly different this time isn’t just the fundamentals. It’s the awakening. For decades, silver was sidelined, manipulated, misunderstood. But now, now it’s front and center in the biggest monetary realignment of our era.

Investors aren’t just buying silver, they’re opting out of the system. Every ounce acquired is a vote against debasement, a hedge against chaos, and a play on what’s next. And unlike past cycles where silver played catch up, this time it’s sprinting ahead. The pricing models can’t keep up, the paper markets are straining, and the public? They’re still asleep. But not for long. We’re standing at the edge of a redefinition. Silver isn’t just participating in the reset, it’s becoming the symbol of it. The monetary system is shifting and silver is no longer a passenger. It’s the driver.
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