That’s all it does. It buys bonds. That’s all it does. It doesn’t do anything else. Happy Hanukkah, guys. Silver has broken through 66. Silver has executed order 66. Briefly reached 67 yesterday. I got a pretty nice long presentation to make with a lot of nice slides that will make silver stackers pretty happy and also gold stackers and we are usually both of those. We’re gonna talk about calls for pushing QE to the long end of the curve already materializing and financial repression, which is of course what we all need to fix the economy.

Just more repression will solve everything. And happy Hanukkah behind my head is the shamash of a giant wine bottle. The others are collectible beer bottles I’ve accumulated over the years. If I haven’t accomplished anything in life, at least I can say I drank this much beer for Hanukkah’s sake. But let’s get straight to the slides and don’t forget to get your gold and silver at Myles Franklin. Link in the description below. Put some gold and silver in a dirty man’s safe. Use the code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off. And you can take some of your gold and silver and earn gold and silver on it in ounce terms with Keith Wiener’s monetary medals, which I have some gold and silver with and I enjoy seeing the interest that I’ve earned in ounce terms.

I will summarize these slides as we are ready for a liftoff. You know that moment in a plane when it starts speeding up and your weight kind of shifts to the back in the inertia and you’re about to take off but you haven’t yet, but you know it’s gonna be about 10 seconds before you do. Well, that’s where we are in the monetary system right now. This should be the final Hanukkah before the end of the dollar and we should be in a new world by next year. And for one more way to support the channel, you can become a patron on Patreon for as little as $3 a month or I give spiritual lessons in monetary economics, gold and silver, government and that sort of stuff.

The last thing or the next thing I’m going to cover is Hanukkah being the holiday of silver, the silver stackers because the parasha, the portion that we read in the Torah this week is meekay. It’s the story of Joseph taking over the Egyptian government and stacking the entire silver supply, cornering the silver market in Egypt and then bringing his family down. And of course the Jews get enslaved after that, which is a repetition in history all the time. No, that’s the story. We go in, we take over the government, we corner the silver market and we become enslaved and then we escape slavery, take all the money back and go to Israel.

Which is, that’s the story. I didn’t make it up. I’m sorry. But anyway, let’s talk about silver. First sign that very few people are focusing on that’s talking about an imminent liquidity event or crash or whatever it is, is the discount window at the Fed. The usage is up. It’s been going up since about October 2024. This usage is now 8.339 billion. The discount window is basically what spikes to hundreds of billions of dollars right before a liquidity event, right before a crash. It has been edging up, as you see, for about two years.

We are at near a two-year high here and before 2008, this kind of edged up to about 11, 12, 13 billion before the spike to hundreds of billions of dollars in September 2008. The discount window is slightly different from the repo market because the repo market is securitized or secured by treasuries, right? The bank gives up treasuries and gets cash from another bank. Here, the discount window, they don’t have treasuries or they don’t want to give up their treasuries or they don’t want to collateralize them for whatever reason and they go straight to the Fed to give them money that is unsecured and this means that a bank is in serious trouble because once you take from the discount window, everybody knows you’re about to die.

So nobody wants to do this. They only do it in an emergency. Here’s another sign that the final crunch, the final crash is almost here. You have in the red, the federal funds effective rate, which is the rate that the Fed either hikes or cuts in its rate-hiking or cutting cycles and in the blue, you have the spread between the 10-year and the three-month treasury. The higher it is, the higher the spread, the bigger of a difference between long-term rates and short-term rates. So you can see here how these things interact, how the federal funds rate interacts with the spread between long-term and short-term rates.

As the federal funds rate is hiked, as you can see here, it goes up and the spread goes down and when they start cutting, the spread goes up. So every time they cut rates, the spread heads higher. It happens again and again and again. Raising rates, the spread goes down. Cutting rates over here in 2000, the spread goes up. Hiking rates, the spread goes down. Cutting rates, 2008, the spread goes up. So what do you think is going to happen this time? Well, hiking rates, you see here, the spread goes down to negative, a negative 2.4 almost.

That’s a record negative spread. That means the inversion of the 10-year, three-month yield curve. And then as they’re cutting rates now, which they are doing, you see the spread starting to rise here. And when it gets to around this point, which is, I think, 0.8 or 0.5, I mean, it’s not an exact point here, but as the spread goes up, that is when you get the liquidity crunches, the recessions, the Keynesian-style economic crashes. You got that in the early 1990s here and the early 2000s here, the 2008 financial crisis, which we all know about, and 2020 over here when they did the wisest thing ever.

And let’s not even talk about it because it was so wise that if we repeat it, our brains might explode from the revelation of how genius our leaders are. And I won’t speak any more about that because we just can’t handle it. So the other thing you can infer from here is that when they cut rates and the spread goes out, that means they cut rates, but the long-term doesn’t go down. The long-term rates don’t go down. The 10-year yield actually goes up or stays steady or goes up, one of those two, as short-term rates go down every single time.

And now, what is being called for in Bloomberg the other day, I think this is two or three days ago, this, oh yeah, December 15th, three days ago, I’m recording this on December 18th. This is an article by Alison Shrager. Let’s read her bio. Alison Shrager is a Bloomberg opinion columnist and covering economics, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. She is author of An Economist Walks into a Brothel. I wonder if it’s her. If she walks into brothels, I wonder what she’s doing in a brothel. She’s a woman, maybe. I don’t know. Maybe she’s not.

You never know these days. Bono, this is my fault. We’ve already introduced brothels. Good, let me shoot that. Dan just had a facelift. Doesn’t he look great? Another unexpected place is to understand risk. But anyway, what does she say? She says these are just selected paragraphs from the article. I will put a link to this in the description of this video. Here are the key paragraphs, and you’ll see that she’s basically calling for QE of long-term bonds right now. QE has started, but it’s only been in the short-term bonds. They’re only buying bills. They just started doing that at $40 billion a month, or was it $45 billion? I think it’s $40 billion actually.

But they’re going to go out into the longer term, the longer ended of the treasury yield curve. They’re going to start buying long-term bonds eventually when this crash finally happens. So, let’s read. But the government and the financial markets may be in for a rude awakening, even if, when. The Fed brings down short-term rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield will almost certainly not go down very much, as it never has, as I just showed you in that chart before of the red and the blue lines. They go in opposite directions, at least not without significant financial repression.

Camelight, why? Should we have financial repression? That’s exactly what we need. You know what we need for this economy? We need more financial repression. Repression is always the answer. Thank you. A stubbornly high 10-year rate will no doubt frustrate many politicians, not to mention central bankers. It means mortgage rates won’t go down, makes servicing the national debt more expensive, and raises the likelihood of a credit event, which means a crash, which is what we’re waiting for, for the end of the dollar. As firms’ debt comes due and they can’t afford to refinance, yes, because rates are so high.

Alternatively, the economy might just slow down, exposing the ineffectiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy. Yeah, that means she’s calling for the final recession. She doesn’t know it’s going to be the final one, but I know it’s going to be the final one. We know it’s going to be the final one. Let’s read the final paragraph here. So expect the government to try to do more at a lower long-term rate. This is one she explicitly calls for QE on the long-term, long end of the curve, on the 10-year, 20-year, 30-year bonds, which is what’s going to happen, which hasn’t happened yet.

We just started QE. It’s going to move out to the long-term soon. The Fed could begin large debt purchases again, despite the dismal record of so-called quantitative easing, while the Treasury could use regulations to essentially force banks to buy more debt, part of a strategy called financial repression. That is an equally bad reputation, but yeah, that’s what we need, repression and QE. They should be wary, messing with the price of risk, which is what bonds represent, tends to create more problems than it solves. Well, what do you think the Fed does? It messes with the price of risk.

That’s all it does. It buys bonds. That’s all it does. It doesn’t do anything else. That’s what he does. That’s all he does. You can’t stop him. He’ll wait for you. He’s got your throat. That’s full of fuck— Am I being too emotional here? Anyway. Now, what about silver? Well, look at this. The silver-to-oil ratio hits one-to-one. Actually, it’s above one-to-one now, because silver is like 66, 67, and oil is like 56, so it’s like 1.2, 1.15. I don’t know what the math is, but an ounce of silver is more expensive than a barrel of oil now.

What do you think that’s good for? Silver miners. Silver miners buy oil and sell silver. If energy costs less than an ounce of silver, they can obviously have very good profit margins, which is what’s going to happen. The only time that the silver-to-oil ratio is higher than it is now was in 1980, and that’s it, at about 1.6, 1.7, whatever it was. We’re probably going to head there somewhere soon, and maybe you could call this, but this was the era of unspeakable wisdom. We’re not going to talk about it, but anyway. Historically, this silver rally has been minor.

This is the gold—this is the silver-to-gold ratio, not the gold-to-silver ratio, the silver-to-gold ratio. How many ounces of gold one silver ounce is worth. You can see here, 2011, this was a serious silver rally. You had two serious silver rallies. You can see here, this silver rally in 2010 to 2011 was extreme relative to gold. You can see here, we were at about 0.015 ounces of gold to silver, and we got up to about 0.03. That’s about a doubling of the value of silver relative to gold. Look at where we are now. We were at 0.009 or 0.0087 or whatever that is, and now we’re at 0.015.

This has been a very minor rally, even more minor than the 2020 to 2021 rally. This isn’t anything big, this silver rally relative to gold. If we were to go up here, then silver’s value would basically double relative to gold from here. If gold stays the same, we’re at 66 now, we’re about 140-something. That’s just if we repeat this kind of rally. 1980 was even more extreme than that. You can see here, we’re just where we started in the gold to silver ratio, the silver to gold ratio. Same thing, it’s just the opposite, the reciprocal, meaning we’re at the very starting point of where this rally began in late 2010.

That’s how high silver could go from here. I’m not saying that it will necessarily, but crazy things can happen, and that is why I’m holding onto my stacks, and I’m not selling for gold yet. I will start selling my silver for gold at around 30 to 1. I will start at around 30 to 1, which means if we get near here, that’s about 30 to 1. That’s when I will start selling my silver for gold. Let’s talk about Bitcoin to silver. The Bitcoin to silver ratio has broken a trend line that’s been in place since the bottom in 2019.

We are now, this is a logarithmic chart here. You can see this trend line was established in 2019 and tagged in 2023, as well as in 2020 during the era of wisdom. You see here that we’ve broken this trend line on the Bitcoin to silver ratio. This is lower even now. This is from several days ago. Who knows how low we’re going to go here? Eventually, Bitcoin is going to go to zero because it doesn’t exist. I spelt it wrong on the top there. I just realized that, but you know what? I don’t care.

I spelt it right on this slide. This is the Bitcoin to gold ratio. You can see that the trend line has also been broken here, and now we’ve broken the trend line, which is also the 200-week moving average. Oh, boy, this is scary for Bitcoin holders. I don’t know. If I were them, I would ignore all of this and pretend that money doesn’t exist. 200-week moving average of the Bitcoin to gold ratio. It looks like it’s resistance now because it’s trying to retest it at about 21.92 and failing, and now we are at 19.

Again, it’s lower than this now. This is a two or three-day old chart because I put these slides together two or three days ago, and everything’s out of date. But we’re at 19 and 19 point something, and you can see here a longer-term chart in the Bitcoin to gold ratio. After this final resistance is broken, the next support is at about 16 gold ounces to Bitcoin. So that’s another $12,000 down, $13,000, $14,000 down, something like that. We’ll see. It doesn’t look good for them. When will the gold to Huey trendline break? So this is talking about gold stocks.

It also applies to silver stocks. Gold stocks and silver stocks have been performing very well, but not really that well historically because the gold to Huey ratio is still very elevated. We’re at the final support zone. The higher this is, the less valuable gold and silver stocks are relative to the metals that they mine. So higher means bad. Lower means good. This trendline was established in 2016, tagged in 2020, and then tagged again here. We just broke through it a few days ago, and the question is, are we going to rebound here higher, meaning our gold and silver stocks going to fall relative to gold, or is this trendline finally going to break? And look at the next slide to see what happens when it does break.

This is that trendline from here to here, but you can see this is still very elevated historically. From 2002 to 2012, we were consistently below 4. We are at 6 now, and this trendline breaks. We could head back, and we will head back down all the way to about 1.6, and even below that, I think, as we have a serious real bull market in gold and silver stocks relative to gold. We haven’t been in one of those since 2001. And if you go back to the chart, which I will share, on Endgame Investor at Substack, if you go back to the 60s, that’s the last time we had a real gold stock and silver stock fair market relative to the metals that they mine.

So guys, happy 4th day of Hanukkah. I will see you guys soon. I have an interesting interview coming up with Jared Taylor, who is called a white supremacist, but whatever. I don’t care what people say. Check that out here. It should be up tomorrow. Have a lovely Endgame, and let’s see this through. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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