Hey gang, it’s me, Dr. Steve, your back porch professor, here to help you make sense of a rapidly changing world. And why is it ever changing, particularly in the Great White North? Saskatchewan and Alberta just dropped a nuclear announcement that could literally split Canada in half. I want to talk to you about this because this is huge, literally. While we were all sleeping, these two provinces united in a way that hasn’t happened since Canadian Confederation. And they’re not asking Ottawa for permission anymore. Now make sure to stick with me at the very end of this video because this isn’t just about Wexit or the very possible secession of western Canada from Ottawa.

This is about a very real political phenomenon that’s toppled governments throughout history and it’s happening right now in our very backyards. So here’s what actually happened that the legacy media is more or less burying. On June 18th, the government caucuses of Alberta and Saskatchewan met in Lloyd Minster in Alberta for the first time in Canadian history as a unified political force. So this wasn’t just a friendly chat between two premiers. This was a strategic alliance with one clear message to Ottawa, enough is enough. Now, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Mo both made it absolutely clear that their two provinces, which have a combined population of nearly 6 million and who control 75% of Canada’s oil production, are absolutely united in standing up for their own citizens as over and against the dismissive entitlement mentality of Ottawa.

So if you don’t know, Alberta in particular, it’s not just another Canadian province. It’s an economic superpower. With a GDP of nearly $340 billion, Alberta single-handedly generates 14% of Canada’s entire economic output while housing only 11% of its population. Alberta produces 4.2 million barrels of oil per day. That’s 1.5 billion barrels annually. To put that in percent, that’s more oil than most OPEC nations produce. Alberta’s energy sector alone contributes over $70 billion to Canada’s GDP. Without Alberta, the federal government in Ottawa would face a near $20 billion shortfall every single year. Alberta is the golden goose of the great white north.

But, and here’s where it gets absolutely infuriating for Albertans. Over the last decade, Alberta sent nearly $250 billion more to Ottawa than it received back in federal spending. $250 billion more than they received back. Meanwhile, Quebec receives $13.2 billion in what’s called equalization payments. So these are basically subsidies that allow all Canadian provinces to provide comparable public services at similar tax levels despite differences in their fiscal capacity. Despite Quebec getting an inordinate amount of money in equalization payments, Quebec continues to block Alberta’s pipelines while living off of Alberta’s wealth. So put simply, Alberta is subsidizing the entire Canadian Confederation.

And Saskatchewan and Alberta are culturally very, very similar. And so the timing of this alliance is no coincidence. You may have heard, but Alberta is moving forward with an independence referendum for 2026. They just lowered the referendum threshold from 640,000 signatures to 177,000. So it’s guaranteed to be on the ballot in just months from now. The Alberta Prosperity Project claims they’ve already gathered 250,000 signatures online. The referendum question is ready. Do you agree that the province of Alberta should become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada? Yes or no? Now, at the same time, Saskatchewan is also working on their own referendum.

They require 125,000 signatures for their referendum, the unified grassroots petition. Thus far, they’ve collected 3,000 signatures, but it’s growing every day. And Premier Mo has publicly stated he would not stand in the way of an independence vote. The polling numbers are pretty stunning. 36% of Albertans want separation. 34% of Saskatchewanians support separation. And there’s a lot of time to convince the other 10, 15% or so needed for a majority support. Now, here’s the part that will blow your mind. What we’re witnessing here isn’t just politics. It’s a textbook example of what’s often referred to as social identity theory.

And this theory provides a compelling explanation for why provinces and territories pursue secession. Now, according to social identity theory, people naturally categorize themselves and others into social groups based on shared characteristics like ethnicity, nationality, religion, regional identity. And once individuals identify with a group, they undergo three key psychological processes that can lead to secessionist movements. One is known as social categorization, where people classify themselves as belonging to distinct groups, in this case Albertans and Saskatchewanians versus central Canadians or Ottolans and so on. And this creates an us versus them mentality that becomes fundamental to how they understand their place inside Canada.

Secondly, there’s what’s called social identity. And this is where individuals adopt the norms, values, and behaviors of their regional group. So in this case, Western Canadians begin to see themselves as fundamentally different from Eastern Canadians developing a distinct identity centered on resource extraction, conservative values, and regional autonomy. And then thirdly, there’s something called social comparison, where groups constantly compare themselves to others to maintain positive distinctiveness. Again, there’s nothing wrong with this inherently. We do it all the time. Sports teams do it, right? Or New Haven pizza versus Chicago pizza. But when Western provinces perceive that central Canada receives better treatment, enjoys more political influence, or benefits disproportionately from federal policies, it threatens their positive group identity, and they’re more likely to want to separate from that unfairness.

One of the things we often talk about on this channel is this massive global shift away from ideology to identity. This goes back to Sam Huntington of Harvard University and his clash of civilizations thesis. Huntington rightly argued that the 20th century was a century of ideology, the century of the Cold War, right? Where the world was basically organized around two main competing ideologies, Western liberalism versus Soviet communism. When Soviet communism died, Huntington argued that the world was going through a massive recalibration away from ideology and now to identity. In other words, if the 20th century was all about what do I believe, the 21st century is more about who am I? What people do I belong to? What culture do I belong to? And this is why we’ve seen these massive secessionist movements ever since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Since 1991, nearly 40 countries have been added to the world map. And if these referendums pass in the next several months, we may be looking at two more. The fact is the historical precedent is clear. Every major secession movement in modern history followed more or less a common pattern. The reigniting of regional identity that believes it’s being slighted by a federal other ends up leading to a unified resistance that ultimately leads to separation. We saw it with Brexit, separating itself from the EU. We saw it with Slovakia and the Czech Republic. And we saw it, frankly, most recently with the Donbas region in Ukraine, Donetsk and Lukans.

And what’s so key here is that Alberta and Saskatchewan actually have the economic power to pull this off. They control the resources, they have the population, and now increasingly they have the political unity. So we’re going to be keeping a very close eye on what happens in the next several months. But this pattern of independence that we’ve been seeing recurring over the last 30 years may indeed be getting to new independent states in the not so distant future. We’ll see. Love you guys. God bless. [tr:trw].

See more of Dr. Steve Turley on their Public Channel and the MPN Dr. Steve Turley channel.