Republican Voter Registration EXPLOSION Could Turn 2024 Red!

I forget the polls. Polls, as you know, gang, polls are predictive. They can be predictive if they’re honest. If they’re honest. But generally speaking, our polling industry now is just so contaminated with this left wing bias. Our industry skews so far to the left today, the polling industry, that the polling averages are just inescapably and irreparably contaminated. So it’s very, very hard to get a sense of what’s really happening out there, just looking at the polls. Again, what we do on this channel is we look at the polls, we look at voter registration, then we look at early voting data to see if we can find a consistent pattern.

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Voter identification is first, voter registration is second. Voter registration is a lagging indicator to voter identification. So like in North Carolina, for example, there are a lot of Democrats who identify as Republicans. They are registered Democrats, old school Democrats, old southern Democrats who just never switched party affiliation, but they always vote Republican. Right. So voter identification really in the end is the key. Voter ID will tell us, predictably, what to expect in November with some rather uncanny accuracy. Take a look at what Gallup has tracked over the years. So they release what they call their predictive measures survey every election.

And these predictive measures have found a rather historically reliable correlation between party self-identification and the popular vote. So keep in mind, Gallup does not poll races anymore. They haven’t done it for a while now. What they do instead is they track party identification. And they do this because they found that this is a very accurate predictor for the national popular vote. So as you can see there, back in 2008, the Democrat registration advantage was plus, I’m sorry, I got that wrong. The Democrat identification advantage was plus eight. The Democrats had a plus eight party identification advantage over the Republicans.

And look at how much Obama won the popular vote by. He won it by seven point two. Pretty accurate. That’s a point eight difference. Pretty good. That was a poll that would be considered one of the best polls in 2012. So you could see there, the Democrats had a plus four party identification advantage. And look at that. Obama went on to win the popular vote by plus three point nine within point one. So you’re seeing the pattern there. It’s pretty impressive. Look again in 2016, same thing. The Democrats had a plus three party advantage. Notice we’ve been seeing it kind of go down those cycles.

They had a plus three party advantage and Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by two point one. Very close again. But look at 2020. Democrats went up. They had a plus five party identification advantage. And what do you know, Biden went on to win the popular vote by four point five. So with that track record, with that very accurate predictive track record. There’s only one question we need to answer here, isn’t there? We got 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020. The obvious question is, what’s the voter identification advantage for 2024? Now, keep in mind, even if the Democrat voter identification advantage were around, say, two or three plus two or three points, right? Like it was in 2016, Trump can still pull this off pretty easily at the electoral college level.

Not the popular vote, but that doesn’t matter. It’s the electoral college that decides the president’s not the popular vote. But certainly he’s within range with the electoral college vote. Again, if the Democrats are up by two or three, maybe, maybe even four, although as we could see in 2012, that was hard. So what is it? What is Gallup’s party identification tracker for 2024? Take a look. It’s Republicans plus three. Voters identify as Republican plus three over the Democrats. It’s the first time Gallup has seen a Republican voter identification advantage in over 30 years. Now, I need not tell you if the historic pattern holds, even in that crazy 2020 election, it was still prevalent.

If that historic pattern holds, we’re looking at a Trump popular vote win. You heard that right. A Trump popular vote win of anywhere from two to 2.5%, possibly 2.8%. Which would mean an electoral college blowout. There’s no way Trump wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral college. So to summarize, Republicans are leading Gallup’s party affiliation poll for the very first time in over 30 years. Trump is polling way ahead of what he was polling in 16 and 20. Again, it just doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter which poll you’re looking at. Trump is stronger than he’s ever been.

Either in 2020 or 2016, and the Democrat is weaker than they’ve ever been against him. Republican early voting turnout is through the roof, particularly in Virginia, but everywhere we’re seeing it, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Mail-in requests are trending red and getting redder by the day. We still got 40 days to go. A lot can happen from now and then till now and then. But as things stand, I can honestly say to you, I, for one, am very, very thankful to be on Team Trump. [tr:trw].

See more of Dr. Steve Turley on their Public Channel and the MPN Dr. Steve Turley channel.