Their net short positions keep getting more and more and more extreme every cycle, and so they are stuck here. Well, hello there, my friends. Raf here from the Endgame Investor with this week’s Silver Report, and we’ve got a coup going on just to the north of me in Syria. I live in southern Syria, otherwise known as northern Israel. So far, nothing going on here, which is nice, but we have a lot to talk about with gold and silver. So, what are we gonna talk about this week? Well, first of all, I noticed a pattern in bullion bank shorts in gold futures that goes back 15 years, and what it shows is that bullion bank shorts, those that play the swap market, they short gold in the futures market, and they hold it supposedly in the spot market in London, never mind whether that’s true or not.

There has been a long-term increase in net short positions going back to about 2007, and you’ll see this on the chart pretty clearly, which means they are getting stucker and stucker, and the short squeeze that we’ve all been waiting for that will take place in the Endgame is gathering steam, but it’s gathering steam in the very long term, going back almost two decades. Ten-year yields are sitting at the 50-week moving average. We’ll see if they can break below it. I don’t think they will because I think we are in a long-term bond bear market, but we’ll see.

The gold to commodities ratio is not at resistance yet, so even if gold falls from here, it probably will continue to rise in terms of other commodities, though in dollar terms, we could be in for a little bit of a rough patch over the next few weeks because we are pinned below the 50-day moving average and can’t seem to break above it. The silver weekly trend line is intact, a trend line that has been in place at the beginning of 2024. We’ll see if it remains intact. We are testing it for the third or fourth time, and if it breaks, we will see a brief decline in both gold and silver, though I think gold has hit its bottom at 2540.

I don’t think it will break below that. Silver is more of a volatile question as it always is. And did we have a Bitcoin breakout in terms of gold? Yes, marginally. The wick of the candle for the weekly charts does paint a new high. However, we have broken back below the all-time high, so it could be a marginal breakout. I’m not going to make any more predictions with Bitcoin because it is a nasty bubble, and it’s hard to actually predict where it’s going to go, but it’s going to really fall hard when the dollar does fall for logical reasons, which I’ve been through before on this show.

And finally, we’re going to look at the long-term picture in silver, the key resistance areas and how many of them have to be overcome before we get to the endgame. By my count, there are three zones of resistance that we have to break through before we hit the end of the dollar in the endgame, which is coming around the corner, and it’s an annoying corner, and I don’t like the corner anymore because I just want to turn it. And I’m sure you can all identify with that. And with that, let’s begin with this week’s silver report brought to you by MySubstack at the Endgame Investor.

There you will find a free post on the intricacies of monetary plumbing, which I think you will all find very fascinating and interesting and also mind-bending, especially if you’re on drugs while you read it. Weed, mostly. Opium in it. Heroin. Crunched up ease. Clorox. Methadone. Subutex. Morphine. Peyote. Some other stuff that’s unidentifiable. And I think a little bit of angel dust, actually, if I’m not mistaken. I should just stop talking and continue with the slides. As for the first chart that I’m going to show you today, this is something I have not noticed.

But now that I see it, I can’t unsee it. You know, those things that you can’t unsee, once you see them, well, this is one of those things. It’s the Bullion Bank gold shorts, long term. Bullion Bank is another word for swap dealer. The swap dealers are short gold in the futures markets and long gold in the spot market in London to cover. So supposedly, they don’t care which direction gold goes in, but really, they kind of do, because I don’t think they’re long physical in London. I think that’s just a fiction, but I can’t really prove that.

We’ll see what happens in the endgame. You can see here, this is the trend line of the net shorts by the Bullion Banks going back to 2007. And we could extend this line all the way back 2007 to get tangent lines here. I just didn’t do that. So you can see that their net short positions keep getting more and more and more extreme every cycle. And so they are stuck here. They can’t get rid of these short positions. And I think in the endgame, they will have to be covered and there will not be enough physical gold to cover them.

And we will head into the endgame in that direction on this metric. We’ll see what happens in time, and it’s not going to be that long of a time. You can also see here, in every local high, which would be a low, because, you know, they’re negative because they’re shorts. So every time there’s a peak here in the short positions, you can see that there is a corresponding price peak in gold. And that was the case, and I think this is 2010, early 2010, late 2010 here. And it doesn’t happen every time.

It didn’t happen with the all-time high in gold in 1923. So it’s not 100% of the time. But we see it here in 2016 with a high in short positions and a local high in gold. That was the beginning of the bull market that began in late 2015. Over here was the high in short positions in 2020, March 2020. We all know what happened then. And gold was at another high breaking out of the six-year resistance over here. And then we had that crazy thing that we’re not going to talk about. Here was the March 2022.

I think it was the nickel Armageddon, where the nickel market, the futures market kind of went belly up, or tits up, tits or belly. I don’t know, you can use whichever one you want, whatever you’re into, who knows. And we had a local high in gold here and a local high in gold shorts. And now we have a new all-time high in gold short positions. It was at 252,000 contracts, which is the all-time high. And again, we’re at another local high in gold here, and we’ve eased off a bit as the amount of short positions has also eased off.

I think we’re at 212 now, something like that, still very high historically and equivalent with this previous high over here in March 2022. I think these are going to keep going higher and higher and higher until the entire market explodes and the gold futures market is no longer functioning. This is not a pattern that repeats in every money class. This is the managed money. This is the hedge funds that go long gold, usually on a net basis. And their long positions on every cycle, you can see it goes up and down.

So they are not caught in the same loop as the swaps are over here, where they keep having to stake higher and higher short positions. Not the same with the managed money with the hedge funds. Anyway, let’s go to the next chart here. We’re going to go into the 10 year yield. And the 10 year yield, my thesis has been since since 2020 that we are now in a bond bear market. And since bonds are what back the dollar mostly as interest rates head higher. So will the dollar head lower in purchasing power in terms of other currencies? Not sure.

I don’t think that matters as much. What matters is what you can buy with it, not how many other currencies you can trade for it. We’re right at the 50 week moving average, testing it for the second week. I think we’re going to bounce higher. We could break below it marginally briefly, but rates are headed higher here longer term. And it looks like we’re in some kind of a triangle formation here, but we’ll see. And we’ll see if next week we can bounce off the 50 week moving average. Then I think rates are going to continue higher from here.

Gold to commodities, not at resistance. Well, now we’re going to go into the gold to commodities ratio. You can see here excluding this area during the lockdowns when commodities really took a plummet because of the lockdowns, which is where you don’t use as much commodities and lockdowns, obviously, because you’re locked in your house. We can see here that we’re at a clear uptrend here beginning during the 2008 financial crisis over here, where we peaked. We peaked here again in 2011 or over the 2012, whatever that is. And again here in 2016, and we touched that tangent line again here in 2019.

And then we fell, but we’re regaining that trend line now. And if we’re going to touch it again, it should be around 11, 11.5 something. So I think we’re headed back higher in that direction after this brief little correction. And so even if gold falls here, I think it will still climb relative to other commodities. And we’re going to go to the next chart. This is the same chart with a slightly different commodities index, the GNX, which is heavily weighted to oil rather than a basket of currencies as in this chart, which is the CRV.

This is the GNX. And we see a very similar chart here with the higher and higher highs going here. And the resistance seems to be at around 5.6, 5.7. Whatever that is now, we’re at 5 now. So gold should continue to rise relative to oil and other commodities over the next few months. Now, in terms of the dollar price, and we’re going to get to silver in a second right after this, gold is stuck underneath the 50-day moving average here at about 2680. It can’t break through it, and it is fading. And we’ve been touching that line for the last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven trading days here.

We’re probably going to break down from here because you don’t touch that line so many times without breaking down below it. It’s going to be brief. I don’t think we’re going to go below the 2540 line here. I think that’s a hard bottom, barring a huge financial crisis, which is going to happen. I don’t know if it’s going to happen in the next few days. I don’t think it will. Probably have to wait for 2025 for that to be triggered. But I do think we’re headed for a brief sell-off in gold and silver. Otherwise, we would have probably broken through this line already, which we have not done.

And still, the silver trend line appears to be intact. I don’t know if it will be intact by next week. There could have a sell-off, but I do think we’re going to struggle for the next few weeks in the prices and dollar terms of gold and silver. Switch to Bitcoin for a second. The Bitcoiners are all ecstatic, as they should be. I’d be very excited if I own a whole bunch of Bitcoin. Also, I do own a small amount, which I’ve had for many, many years. I don’t even know how much it’s worth because I haven’t checked my wallet in a very long time because, really, honestly, I hate this stuff.

And I’m probably going to sell it. And it’ll be fun. I’ll make a little bit of change. But anyway, we have here the all-time high at 37.3, which was in October 2021. We briefly broke above it in this candle, this dojo candlestick. They call it, I think, in technical schools. But we’re back at 37.28 now, which was the all-time high at 37.28 here. So is this a marginal breakout of a triple top? And then we’re going to hit the triple top and head lower? Or are we really going to break through? I don’t know.

But I would just advise caution. If you have a lot of Bitcoin, you might want to lock in some of your profits into real money, which is gold and silver. And you can keep the rest of it. I’m not trying to liquidate everyone’s Bitcoin positions. I’m just trying to say be a little bit conservative and a little bit realistic about what money actually is. Now, finally, the long-term silver picture here, I drew a bunch of lines. So this is that longer-term trend line we have in tact since the silver crash of 2020.

And the line is at around $25, $26. I don’t think we’re going to hit back below there. I don’t think we’re going to get near there. We could get near the 50-week moving average at around $28 if in an extreme case. I’m not too worried about that. But what we have here is we are at the support zone, which is the silver squeeze top. The silver squeeze top is here in 2021 at that candle, which was also matched in August 2020. That’s where we are now, just above it. I think we’re going to hold above it.

And above that, this next resistance line is about 35. And really, that goes back to the triple top established here after the 2011 high. That’s going to be hard to get through. That’s why this is resistance because it was the resistance zone back here in 2011, 2012. Once we break through that, we’ve got two more resistance zones before we get to the end game in my technical view. So we have here what looks like to be about $43, which was the secondary high after the $50 high in 2011. And that’s going to be a little bit tough.

But once we break through that and we get to 50, that’s the final resistance zone before I think the dollar collapses. This could all take place in the next few months. I don’t think it’s going to be much longer than that. Why do I believe that? Well, this doesn’t have much to do with one there. They’re under attack everywhere. They are under attack in the United States. The Deep state is on the run. There. Trump is going after it. I don’t know if he would succeed in overthrowing the deep state and getting America back to a little inkling of sanity.

The deep state is actually under attack here in Israel and the headlines are little bit more obscure. But there’s a lot going on between the unelected Israeli Deep State and the elected government here. They’re fighting a lot. And you’d have to leave here to understand. I’m not gonna go into it and there is meanwhile chaos breaking out on every border Lebanon and pretty much has nothing going on there and now Syria is in chaos and Iran’s whole axis has been destroyed Who knows what’s gonna happen there next if Iran is the next revolution and what happens when Trump gets back in office Everything is very unstable here including the dollar including bonds and it will all come to a head in the dollar itself After which we will be in a new world, which I am anxiously anticipating don’t fear the reset It will be glorious.

It will be freeing It will be cathartic and it will be good for humanity in the meantime This is Rafa the endgame investor If you want to support this show and go ahead and sign up to the endgame investor either a free or a paid Subscription or go ahead and buy a dirty man safe link in the description below and use the code endgame10 for 10% off checkout or you can become my patron on patreon for as little as three dollars a month to get my biblical lessons in Monetary economics government and Liberty.

I’ll see you guys next week
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