Only Continued Silver Drawdowns From Above-Ground Stocks Can Balance Market In Next Few Years

➡ Vince Lancey’s report discusses the current state of the silver industry, highlighting that unless there’s a decrease in industrial demand or an increase in recycling, the only way to balance the market is by using above-ground stocks. He also mentions that the industry is not in control of its own fate and will have to rely on banks and other intermediaries. The report concludes that either the supply of silver needs to increase or the price will rise.
➡ The market is showing signs of a possible increase in silver prices, with some investors shifting from gold to silver due to perceived undervaluation. This shift is happening despite a decrease in copper prices and an increase in oil prices, hinting at a potential stagflationary environment. Meanwhile, Russia has frozen the accounts of JP Morgan and BNY Mellon for unspecified reasons and is planning to increase its silver holdings. Lastly, the market’s reaction to potential election outcomes is being closely watched.

Given the current situation and mining dynamic, unless industrial demand decreases via thrift, they come back with how much they use, or economic slowdown, or recycling of jewelry and investor coins increases significantly, highly unlikely, only quoting only continued drawdowns from above ground stocks can balance the market in the next few years. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and we have a lot to cover today.

It is Friday. Unemployment comes out at 8 30. Give you a summary of that. If payrolls are under 50,000, then you can expect another 50 basis point cut. And if payrolls are over 250,000, you can expect some serious concern and a self in the stock market. Anything in between there is a crapshoot as far as I’m concerned. Okay. We’re going to talk about silver today. We’re going to talk about silver as described in a new metals focus report, their weekly report. It’s very good. It came out yesterday or the day before. We’ve read it, have some analysis for you, and we’re going to break it down.

Let’s look at the markets first. You could see I’m all about silver today. The dollar is down 10. 10-year yields are up a basis point and a half at 386. The S&P 500 is 57. 15 up 22. The VIX is 1996. Down half a vol. Volatility is going to start basing higher now because gold is going to start basing higher now. Keep that in mind. Gold 26.61 up $6 on the highs of the evening in anticipation of the New York opening buying. Silver 32.13 up 12 cents. In sympathy, no real action there yet.

Copper 4.54 up 2 cents. Gold silver lower. Very nice. Very nice. WTI 75.53 up a dollar. This is stagflation type of situation. That’s brewing here. Nobody wants to go home short on the weekend in oil, especially with what’s going on in the Middle East. Biden’s most recent comment, which is just idiotic, but it’s politics. Natural gas, 276 up 3 cents. Bitcoin, 61.407. Off it’s behind up 677 points. Ethereum, 23.83. Platinum, Palladium both up. Palladium at $10.07. Up $2. Platinum, $10.04, $9.55. I guess the game is on again. The Platinum, Palladium game, the race. Grains are violently mixed.

Soybeans, $10.66 up 6 cents. That’s 60 basis points. Corn, $4.15 down 2 cents. That’s 60 basis points. And wheat leading the path lower, $6.02 down 9 cents, one and a half percent. Maybe it’s weather related or seasonality or harvest. What a great complex. Okay. Silver. Here’s our title tentatively. It’s in response to the report that we read by MF and it’s entitled only above ground stocks and scrap can save silver supply. Now we’ll be going through that report here in summary. We’ve already sent the report out as well as our full analysis to premium subscribers.

We’re going to touch on it here and go through some charts for you as well. There’s the front page, the next 500 and the next 100. We discussed that yesterday. Interfact report. Russia to increase silver holdings in the state fund. Platinum, Palladium and silver. Interesting development. Also gemstones. Don’t know what ground stocks can save. So we’re supply. Now that’s what was just sent out. You’ll be getting that your, your mailbox shortly. Okay. The main event. Metals focus put out their precious metals. Weekly data, October 3rd, 2024. And the main article, the feature piece was entitled can silver mine supply meet increasing industrial demand? And the answer is no.

And that’s their conclusion tentatively. While you’re looking at that, I’ll give you some bottom line comments. The reports title asks the right question. It is titled as I just told you, given the current situation in mining dynamic, unless industrial demand decreases via thrift, they come back with much to use or economic slowdown or recycling of jewelry and investor coins increases significantly highly unlikely. Only quoting only continued drawdowns from above ground stocks can balance the market in the next few years. This is a wake up call for the industry and frankness from a notably unperturbable organization, speaking about MF.

The tone is not panic by any means, but the facts as presented do raise questions. Those questions would be where are the above ground supply stocks that we need? What price does the scrap come out? Those questions aren’t answered in this report, but those are the questions that need to be answered next. Here’s a summary of where we’re going from here. Unless there is a global economic slowdown, unlikely for the next six months, as banks are now in an interest rate lowering cycle. If there is a slowdown, they’re already meeting it with easing.

Above ground stocks will be used to fill the gap between supply and demand. So unless there’s a slowdown, which is outside of their control, above ground stocks will be used to fill supply demand. The wild card of China is, of course, their insatiable demand. Now, that can also turn negative. It’s not a given all the time. With the BRICS meeting coming up, that may change post-BRICS. We’re not sure, could change for the better. The silver industry is now in an unenviable position. Sounds like I’m drunk. The silver industry is now in an unenviable position after years of economic neglect of having to be bailed out of its deficit problems by forces outside of its control, unless some of the aforementioned things above happened.

Absent an economic act of God or an industry specific innovation, demand will only be satisfied by considerably higher price. The industry is increasingly, unfortunately, not in control of its own fate and will have to rely on intermediaries like bank. I almost said one bank. Banks who scour and procure metal from existing supply, usually clients holding out for a better deal or their own stocks with which they are loathe to part with and producers of concentrate who, by the way, are selling their materials in increasing frequency before the silver is even extracted to China.

That metal is just not hitting the market. That’s one of the reasons you have a lot less hedging now. Final comment about this summary is the industry is upside down prioritizing financials over physical. This is from years of uphill battles, not in any small part from their own doing. Either physical growth of supply increases soon or the financial price appreciation grows for it. Either there will be more silver or there will be higher price. That’s it. It’s a very good report. Again, this is an unperturbable organization. They do not sound alarms, but when you ask a question in your title, just a meta comment, and the question is answered, no, that’s a sign of industry stress.

Now, I know that there’s going to be plenty of above ground silver stock and they just have to find it and scrap will come out, but it will come out tomorrow. It’ll come out at a price and it’ll come out big, but it’ll come out at a price. It won’t come out anytime soon. At least I don’t think. That’s the report. We have that report. We have a full analysis. I just gave you a summary of it here. We have a lot more on that there. It’s an unenviable situation. Let’s take a look at some charts.

Interesting developments in the charts. There are two configurations people are discussing. One is I’m not going to talk about the cup and handle thing. This is real. If this gets broken, it may already have been broken, depending on how you measure it. The next price is $40 in a heartbeat, possibly very similar to what happened with the gold market after it broke its cup and handle. Now, it’s a very valid structure. That’s my comment about that. Next, where are those lines? There they are. Those lines that were on the monthly, they go all the way back.

Here’s those two lines closed up on a daily. Now, between the two green lines, I want you to think of this as a dead zone, meaning above here, it will attract some buying, but there is selling above here. If the market gets in here, it could skate to the top and just run through, like you’ll never see. On the other hand, if people start to get long and speculate long in here and it never gets above there, then the market will get tired and roll over. If you look at this, that’s the big structure I showed you.

Here’s the daily. Here’s a little very fractal-looking chart. Look at this chart, very fractal-looking. Where is that? Come on. As you can see, I’ve been very busy with charts today. See, structure, and then there’s the daily structure. Where’s that daily structure again? I’m sorry about your eyes there, folks. Daily structure. It’s very fractal. You have a big structure. Basically, you have scoops, scoops, and scoops. Now, see this yellow halo? This is a sign in this market, of a market that’s running into resistance and patiently taking it out. First long wick. Okay, we’ll stop buying.

Back’s off. Second long wick. Okay, we’ll stop buying. Back’s off. Third long wick. All right, we’ll stop buying. Maybe there was a news event. And then it just keeps nibbling at everything under the selling. It’s almost like if I were a market maker, I’m not simplifying this, but if I were a market maker and I wanted to accumulate a big order for a client, and the market were thin, it’s not thin right now, but if offer above, it’s a tactic. It’s a legal tactic. I’d offer a thousand lots right above at that level, and everyone who’s long and scared would start to sell, and I would just start buying the level one at a time.

It’s kind of like chumming. It’s spoofing if you don’t honor the offer, but if you take the risk, it’s not spoofing. And then they took the lid off of this, boom, and now we’re up here. Now, this level here, this level is kind of troublesome for me, because it’s a new high above these other levels. It’s a new high going back above some other levels, and it failed again. So I’m starting to have a feeling that this selling in here is not longs getting out. It’s a typical fun behavior getting out.

I’m starting to think that it might be physical or producer related. I’m not sure, but we’ll find out. We’ll find out soon enough. There’s the structure going back, right? It kind of bifurcates that whole area. All right. See this little thing here, this little rectangle here. I can’t get into the details right now for this conversation because the truck doesn’t render properly, but these three, what do you call them? Marching soldiers. This was very indicative of someone said, okay, it’s time. Let’s start buying its time, and I’ll give it to you in context.

See those three advancing ones? This rounding bottom here, see how it’s kind of orderly, not orderly, how it’s random and chaotic on the way down? That’s people getting out, getting out, getting out, getting out, and this is a market trying to figure itself out. And this is someone who gives opinion on the market and says, I want it. I want the silver. That’s what’s happening there. I am concerned about this area, but I’m not that concerned about this area in the bigger picture because if we get above here, $40 is going to come in a heartbeat, I think.

All right, moving on. We just did that. News and analysis, the next 500 and the next 100, you know that from yesterday, Russia freezes JP Morgan and BNY Mellon assets. I guess the empire strikes back here. Russia froze accounts of, as it said, JP Morgan and BNY. I’m not really sure what the reason was, but it comes from Interfax. No, it might’ve come from Bloomberg. Interfax reports to Russia is to increase silver holings in the state fund, as mentioned. Charting the election outcomes for stocks. There’s a nice chart in this.

If Kamala wins, we expect this. If Trump wins, we expect that. Simple but effective, I believe. Okay, data on deck. Unemployment report. I gave you my feel for that right now. Let’s check back on the markets. Oh, and by the way, the full analysis is under premium analysis. Just click that right there and I’ll take you right to it. Let’s take a look at the markets, shall we? Put up an alley for silver. Yeah, see, we’re right below it, which is kind of good, by the way. Right below it means if we get into it, we’ll probably run.

Right below it means someone’s still patiently accumulating. Inside of it, you get worried. Okay, silver. Look at this. It’s such a beautiful thing. I’ll show you what I mean. Scoop, scoop, scoop. It wasn’t too long ago we were looking at that in gold. Remember gold? Scoop, scoop. That’s not it. Well, it’s a scoop, but it breaks, right? Scoop. Everything, you’re just, silver is now behaving like gold. And I think yesterday’s activity, to give you a quick comment about yesterday’s activity, silver was so strong and gold was not. I don’t know, but generally speaking, when the market does that with copper down, with copper down and silver up and gold, let’s call it unchanged, that’s fabulous.

That’s a sign that macro discretionary is looking at gold relative to silver and copper because they didn’t buy copper and saying silver is undervalued relative to everything and they’re taking profits in gold and putting in silver. I’m not saying that one person did that, but I’m saying that as a whole, the marketplace said silver is cheap relative to gold. Let’s buy some. That’s what it did. Copper was down and oil was up. Things are setting up for a stagflationary environment. We’re not anywhere near it yet, but we could be soon. All right, I’m Vince.

Anything goes, it’s Friday, Jewish holiday, Hogsomei to those of you who celebrate. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Freshest Metals, where this week’s specials include 2024 American Silver Eagles for only $5.25 over spot and one ounce gold Argo Horaeus Dragon Bars for only $69 over spot while supplies less. Find out more, send us an email at our kitty at milesfranklin.com or call us at 833-326-4653. And as always, thanks for watching. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

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