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Summary
The Rafi Farber article discusses the misconception that manipulating financial records can alter the reality of physical assets, a mistake often made in economics. It criticizes the belief that creating an illusion of more money can make people wealthier, and highlights the dangers of inflation. The author argues that no amount of accounting tricks can save us from the consequences of inflation, which he equates to theft. He urges people to prepare for the economic endgame and learn from the lessons of inflation, as all debts must be paid and no amount of financial manipulation can prevent the resulting poverty.
The End Game Investor on Substack offers free content for everyone, including thoughts on gold and silver markets. You can also become a paid member for more frequent updates. The next post will feature Phil Lowe discussing the monetary autism spectrum.
Transcript
This year, Santa, I asked for nothing, but I wish to tell you about my dear friend, the brain. He is honest and very hard-working and only wants what’s best for the world, but he gets no reward. Hey guys, Rafi here from The Endgame Investor, and today we’re going to talk about the cardinal sin of fake economists and fake economics, and that cardinal sin is believing that fake accounting can magically impact the reality of the physical world, meaning if you pretend that you have real assets that you do not have, but you change the recording, the accounting of those assets, then that magically changes the physical world in a spiritual way and you can maintain your wealth without ever producing anything and we’re in the Garden of Eden and there’s the Tree of Life and you live forever and each trait is zero and all you got to do is change what the books say and we can all go on with our lives as if we are in paradise.
Exhibit A today is finance a lot, a Twitter account or an ex-account that I do follow and that I appreciate and he gives a lot of good information a lot of the time, except in this particular tweet he is making the cardinal sin of what the Keynesian inflationists make, the same problem, the same error, the same sin of thinking that an accounting gimmick can save you from physical catastrophe. Before we go on to the tweet, just consider what is inflation? When a dollar is printed over the gold supply, over the money supply, when the Fed buys debt and issues dollars and the money supply or the dollar supply more specifically is expanded, allowing the government to buy real assets, what is happening? We are changing the accounting of the gold supply, which the dollar was born out of.
A dollar is an accounting for a given gold supply. When you increase that supply, it makes it look like there is more gold, that there are more assets, more physical assets that exist, but there are not, there is just inflation and then people start buying physical stuff, real assets and then there are less physical assets and more accounting assets and then prices go up. But the Keynesians believe that pretending that there is more money than there actually is makes people richer when it does not. So how does finance a lot commit this same sin? He says this.
If you are interested in a more religious angle on this lesson that I’m about to teach here, then join the Patreon where we will go into when humans are punished by God. They can turn those punishments into reward if they change their behavior, but they cannot get out of the decree itself. Same situation here, we are going to go through an endgame if we change our behavior now. That endgame will still happen, but we will be able to get through it and improve ourselves rather than not get through it and die a horrible death.
I’m going to go into two examples of people or groups of people that went through their punishments and one group came out well and the other group came out not so well. And how this happened, this is an important religious lesson, spiritual lesson to learn that we see parallels of in the endgame in the monetary sphere today. Join my Patreon in the link in the description below for as little as $3 a month. Finance a lot says if everyone is selling U.S. Treasuries at fire sale prices, the U.S. will simply buy up all of its own debt with the skyrocketing dollar.
You can’t default on your debt if you own most of it, thus resetting the cycle of U.S. debt being the most stable and valuable in the world, which I respond in this tab over here in a quote tweet or a quote X or a quote post or whatever it’s called. I’ve never heard finance a lot be more wrong. Dollar collapses with Treasuries because the dollar is backed by Treasuries. If A equals A, meaning if the dollar equals Treasuries because Treasuries backed the dollar, then A minus a hundred equals A minus a hundred.
Currencies only rise with rising interest rates if the central bank that issues the currency hasn’t been performing monetary dollar sign, euro sign, percentage sign acts on itself for 16 years. Draw me an AI of that one. What finance a lot is saying here is that if interest rates go up, and I expect that they will very severely, then the value of U.S. debt goes down to the point where theoretically the treasury could buy back its own debt, all of it, for very few dollars, and that would reset the entire debt structure.
It would be a genius move. Thus, in his words, resetting the cycle of U.S. debt being the most stable and valuable in the world. Why is that so wrong? Well, imagine you have a fixed rate mortgage on your house. Interest rates go higher and higher and higher, but you have a fixed rate, which is the equivalent situation with all U.S. Treasuries because as they are issued at auction, the federal government pays a fixed rate of interest on those securities. In the secondary market, other people who buy it for cheaper can earn a higher rate of interest on those securities, but the government itself pays a fixed rate of interest, fixed coupons on those securities from their birth until they are redeemed when they expire or mature, whatever the word is.
Now, let’s say on your house, you have a fixed rate of interest and interest rates go higher and higher and higher. That means the value of your mortgage falls faster and faster and faster until you are paying pennies on the dollar in real terms. Now, theoretically, you could pay back that entire debt load, the entire mortgage, and cancel your debt. But does that really change anything for the bank, for the mortgage, which is still worthless? At that point, you don’t even have to repay your mortgage because the bank is not going to care.
It’s not going to want you to pay it back because it’s just a burden. It doesn’t really matter anymore because it’s the bank that’s in trouble because the currency itself is dying or think of it this way. A lot of foreign central banks, a lot of foreign governments, a lot of people all around the world own U.S. debt. If it falls in value in real terms very fast, because interest rates go up and up and up, those countries will have lost so much real purchasing power on that debt. Why, after that, would U.S.
debt become stable and valuable in the world again? Immediately after that, after the country defaults in real terms on its debt, it’s going to become stable and valuable immediately after. If the U.S. debt collapses because interest rates go higher and higher and higher, then yes, it could buy back its entire debt. But it wouldn’t make a difference in terms of the dollar being able to buy anything real. The general point is that finance a lot is trying to say that all that really matters is the accounting, that all the destruction, and all of the malinvestment, and all of the destroyed property, and all of the destroyed liberty, and all of the wars, and all of the death, and all of the shots, and all of the lockdowns that were funded by inflation.
None of this matters, and all that matters is a stupid accounting game where the U.S. can buy back its own debt for pennies on the dollar and then everything will be fine. Sorry, too perfect. Sorry, no, that is not possible. Perfect my ass. And in a narrower sense, the issuer of the dollar is the Federal Reserve. The assets on the other side of the dollar are the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet assets, which are 93% U.S. debt. If the value of that debt falls, then most of the dollar’s backing falls with it, and the dollar’s purchasing power must fall as well.
And that means when the Treasury buys back all of its worthless debt with a little handful of dollars, its debt will continue to be worthless. It will not be able to borrow any more money, and there will be no more imports into the United States, and the people of the United States will have to figure out how to produce all the stuff that they need by themselves all of a sudden, and they will be very poor, and many of them will be starving. An accounting trick is not going to change this one bit.
Americans have a choice. Either they can prepare for the end game and become better people to get through it as best as they can, or they will get eaten alive by it. And it’s not just Americans, it’s the entire world. And no accounting gimmicks are going to save you from the consequences of the theft that is inflation. All debts are paid, all lessons are learned, either the easy way or the hard way, it’s all up to you. If inflation is theft, and it is, then all that theft has to be paid for through poverty.
No accounting gimmick is going to stop that. I wrote about this topic in a more step-by-step organized way on the end game investor on Substack. Link to that post in the description below. It is not paywall. It is free for anyone to read. Subscribe to EGI for free in the link in the description below, and become a paid member if you want to hear my thoughts on the gold and silver markets three times a week. And I will see you guys soon tomorrow. The next bitter end game draft will be up featuring Phil Lowe talking about the monetary autism spectrum.
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