➡ The market is not at its peak yet, with predictions suggesting it could reach between $140,000 to $200,000. Using various indicators, such as the pie cycle, MVRV, and Fibonacci, the average top of the cycle could be around $175,000 to $180,000. MicroStrategy, a company that uses Bitcoin as a leveraged play, could see its share price rise to $1,300 per share or even up to $1,610 per share if it reaches a 3x multiple. However, these are just predictions and past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

➡ The text discusses the challenges of buying and selling Bitcoin at the right time. It suggests that instead of trying to time the market, a better strategy might be to regularly invest a set amount of money into Bitcoin (known as dollar-cost averaging). This approach can help accumulate more Bitcoin over time. The text also mentions that the nature of Bitcoin buyers is changing, which could affect future price trends.

Everybody wants to know when Bitcoin peaks this cycle, what the price will be and what that means for stocks like MicroStrategy. But the most reliable indicator looks like it’s failing us when we need it the most. I’m talking about the pie cycle top and it’s been 100% accurate at calling every single Bitcoin cycle top for over a decade. But when I analyzed what it’s predicting and then I cross-checked it, I found something that completely changes everything because if this indicator is wrong, well, what does it mean for everything else? Now, I’ve been building and selling tech companies for decades.

I’m a partner at a leading Bitcoin venture fund. I’m an officer of a publicly traded Bitcoin company and these are the same analysis tools that we use to make million-dollar decisions. And by the end of this video, you’ll understand exactly why our most trusted timing tool might be leading everyone astray this cycle. So let’s go. All right, we’re gonna have some fun here. We are going to sort of predict where the price of Bitcoin will be at the end of this cycle. I’ll explain what cycles are. And of course, like all my videos, we’re not going off of gut checks or guesses.

We’re gonna use data to get there. And then I’m gonna show you all this data together and then I’ll tell you how we use this data. Okay. So the first thing is, you probably already know this, but if you don’t, Bitcoin sort of moves on these four-year cycles. Now, these four-year cycles are having cycles where the supply, the new supply issuance of Bitcoin gets cut in half every four years, causing a supply demand shock. Okay. Now, this is sort of turned into a predictable pattern that we have over time. Now, we can see sort of like this.

And if you’re good at patterns, like maybe like an elementary kid could be, you’d see that in 2012, we had this pattern and then it took off. In 2016, we had the same pattern and then it took off. In the next cycle, in 2020, we had the same pattern and then it took off. And now we have the same pattern and what would happen next? Most likely it’s going to take off again, right? So we sort of have that, you can recognize those patterns. Now, if you look at it in a chart basis, it looks a little bit different.

And what you can see is that we have these halving cycles that happened right here and each one corresponded with a peak. So every time we have this, we get these peaks. Now, there’s a delay in which that happens. Typically the bottom, the bottom of the price, the lower end is typically 12 to 18 months after the peak. And then the top is typically one to two years after the halving. So that’s how it works. So what we can do is we can look at the halving, which happened in May of last year.

And we could estimate that about one to two years, about 18 months is going to put it about the end of this year. But look, these are ranges here. So just let me give you that. Now, if you look at it sort of in this four year chart, some of you might have seen this bar chart. It looks like this where we typically have, so this is going all the way back to 2011 right here. So we can see like three green years and a red year, three green years and a red year.

Now we’ve had three green years. And what happens next? That’s anyone’s guess. But for those who think Bitcoin is too volatile, look at this price right here. Look how it sits in that range. Okay. But again, we’re going to have some fun. We’re going to think about where this price goes. But what we do also want to keep in mind, because we’re looking at data here, is what we can see in the cycle first, second, third, fourth, we can see the price at the bottom 255, 312, 3215, 5, pretty good. We can see the peak price here, but what we’re looking at is the multiple.

So it went up 444 times in the first cycle, 62 times, 21 times, and yet we don’t know right here because we’re still in this cycle. So this is like the law of diminishing returns, or what we call the large, large, law of large numbers. So as the number gets bigger, it’s harder to move up more explosively returns in the cycle, 44,000%, 6,000%, 2,000%. And again, to be determined here. All right. Now, again, we’re going to use this to try to guess what the price will be. Not so much the time, but the price.

Okay. There’s a couple of problems here and some promises that we have. The first promise is that the pie cycle top indicator is the most accurate one. I call it the Holy Grail of investing. It’s nailed it almost perfectly every time. All right. But with financial indicators, we don’t ever use just one indicator. We want to look at a bunch of indicators and see how these all come together. So we’re going to look at a handful. First look at the Holy Grail, look at a handful. And then like I said, I want to tell you what this means both for Bitcoin itself, but also what I call Bitcoin proxies, like micro strategy, formerly now strategy, and what that might mean for a company like that, a Bitcoin treasury company.

Okay. So let’s first look at the Holy Grail of indicators, which is the pie cycle top. And again, we call it that because it’s been 100% accurate. Now the way it works is basically it takes moving averages, the 111 daily moving average, and then it takes the 350 daily moving average times two. So when those indicators cross or when the moving averages cross, it typically signals a top. Let’s take a look at it. The track record from 2013, 2017, and 2021. So here we have in 2013, here’s the dotted line and it nailed that top just perfectly.

The next cycle, here’s the dotted line and it nailed that top perfectly. 2021, the dotted line and it nailed that top perfectly every time. Pretty amazing. So basically what we have is we have the moving averages, which is the green line and the yellow line. So when the green line moves above the yellow line, it signals the top. When the green line moves above the yellow line, it signals the top. And as you can see right here, currently we’re about right here, the yellow and the green line are pretty far apart.

So at what point do these converge and what does that mean? Okay. Well, let’s take a look. So first of all, if we were to follow this blindly, we’re not going to, I’m going to show you a handful of other indicators. What this would tell us is that this would converge around January 17 of 2027, but doesn’t that contradict the normal cycles? Well, yeah, because it should be somewhere around the end of this year, if not beginning part of next year, Q4 this year, Q1 of next year. But this is saying not until January Q1 of 2027 and predicting a price of $395,000 would be the top.

Now, number one, that price seems really high, maybe too high. Number two, it’s not the right timeframe. Well, the reason why this could be off is because again, these are moving averages. So that means they’re moving. So what happens is if we get into a really rapid Bitcoin price appreciation, let’s say this year, it’s going to adjust these moving averages and it could change that. Okay. So we’re going to keep an eye on that, but in order to sort of understand where the price is going to go, we’re going to look at more than just the cycle.

Even though it’s so predictive, like I said, because it’s a moving average, we have to take into consideration that it is moving. Now, another one that I really like to use is called the MVRV. That’s the market value to realize value. And it’s sort of a more grounded method. And basically it takes what the market price of Bitcoin is versus what the realized price. So this is on-chain data. So we can see the last time Bitcoin has moved. Bitcoin, the Bitcoin network is anonymous. We don’t know who owns the wallets or who they belong to, but they’re not private.

So we can see them. And so we can see the last time they moved or what that price might be, meaning how much profit or loss that person might have. Now, if we take a look at this chart, by the way, these charts are for Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Check them out online. You can pull up your own charts. And what we can see is that when the MVRV, which is this red line, when it spikes, like right here, it signals a top in the market. When it spiked, it was a top in the market.

When it spiked here, it was a top in the market. When it spiked here, it was a top in the market. Pattern recognition. Okay. So where are we here? Well, we’re nowhere near spiking, which probably means we’re nowhere near the top of the market either. Now, what we do is we take some lines, we take some patterns, and we try to adjust this out. And what it tells us is that currently right now, there’s a range, we’re looking at maybe somewhere between 140, but probably closer to $200,000 before the realized price increases enough to show a peak.

So somewhere around 140, super, super conservative, but maybe closer to 200,000 at the peak of the cycle before we get there. But again, these are moving. So, uh, well, I’ll tell you how we use these indicators and how we use them inside of the fund a little bit later towards the end of the video. But, um, again, first pie cycle, about three 95 here, 140 to 200, let’s call it closer to 200. All right. Let’s go back to another indicator that we like to use. Now this is Fibonacci extensions. This one is probably one of my least favorite, but for all my technical analysis, all my want to be traders out there, you know exactly what this is.

Basically it’s a mathematical or a technical level of price levels that would hit either on an up or down swing. So it’s technical levels from previous cycles. Now these are math based. Um, one of my previous partners, he was amazing wizard on technical analysis. I call it like reading tea leaves. We’re going to take a look at it either way. Now what the Fibonacci does, it identifies resistance levels that could keep the price from moving up, but also support levels that would keep it from dropping down. Now, if we take a look at the Fibonacci, if you’re a trader and you like these, if we look at the Fibonacci levels, what we see is that the extensions are currently projecting on a conservative basis, a base case or an optimistic, a bearable case, um, Bitcoin to be somewhere in the one 45 price range, somewhere around here, maybe up to one 70, but maybe as high as, as about 220,000.

So bear case, one 45 mid case, one 70 bull case, two 20. Would the MVRV say it said the same thing between one 45 and two 20 as well. All right. So we’re starting to see some confluence in factors there. All right. So if we put all this together, we take the pie cycle, we take the MVRV, we take the Fibonacci, what do we get? Well, online looks like it’s going to be much sooner than 20, 27. Um, and if we cross validate these, we converge them, it gives us more confidence into our price levels.

So maybe somewhere in the, what is the average of that? You know, one 75, one 80 could potentially be the top of the cycle. We don’t know until we get there. But what does this mean for stocks like micro strategy? So micro strategy or now strategy is basically a proxy. It’s a levered way to play Bitcoin. So for example, if we look at micro strategy, here’s bonds in the last five years since August 10th of 2020 is down bonds are down 4%. You’ve lost a lot of money. Real estate’s up 6%. Gold’s up 10%.

S&P 500 is up 14%. Um, annually, uh, the, the mag seven are up 27%. Bitcoin’s up 58% and micro strategies up double that about 101% cumulatively 3000% in that period while Bitcoin is up 885% in that period. Okay. That’s over the last five years. What about the last one year? Well, if we look at it over the last 12 months, we see a similar pattern. Bonds are flat. Real estate’s up 6%. S&P 1700%. Uh, gold had a great run over the last 12 months. It’s up 40%. Bitcoin’s up 74%. But again, micro strategy is up almost double that at 134%.

So if micro strategy or strategy is a levered way to play Bitcoin, where does it put the price of that? Well, let’s take a look at that as well. Using some of these familiar metrics. Now we don’t have on chain data that we can use, but we can use Bitcoin as an indicator, seeing how it moves as a multiple. We’ll look at a couple other things now to understand it’s no longer micro. Now it’s just strategy. It’s still the same ticker. MSTR right now they’re holding over 600,000 Bitcoin. So there’s a couple of things that we have to take into assumptions.

Number one, how much more Bitcoin will they have by the time we get to the peak? They could have 700,000. We don’t know, but we’re going to use about a 600,000. All right. And because that’s growing, we want to look at the Fibonacci targets of 140, 172 20. And then we have to look at the premium or the multiple that they trade at. So let’s first look at the Fibonacci’s. Okay. So again, based on the Bitcoin extensions, we have a base case, a mid case and a bull case. What we can see is that micro strategy could go up as high as $1,300 per this cycle, which is amazing.

Amazing growth. Okay. But I would like to look at it more based off of Bitcoin’s price and a multiple. For me, that makes more sense. And so if Bitcoin gets to a target price of 170, remember it was about 140 to 220. So if it gets to 170, what will micro strategy trade as a multiple to the amount of Bitcoin they hold in the balance sheet, the book value or what we call MNAV. So we have to assume this out right now. It’s somewhere in the two times MNAV. All right. So how many Bitcoin will they have? We don’t know.

Let’s say they get to 650,000 Bitcoin by the time we get to the peak of the cycle at a two times MNAV and Bitcoin get into 170, that would put the price of micro strategy up to about $1,000 per share. If we get a little bit higher, let’s say they get to 700, 700,000, they would get to over $1,000 per share. But could they even get a higher multiple? Could it be a three X? I think it could. I’m going to show you why in just a second. But let’s say that they get to 700,000 Bitcoin by the time we get to the end of the cycle, they just raised two and a half billion dollars through their recent offering called Stretch STRC.

And so they could easily get to that number. If not below past that, they get to a three times multiple that could put the price of micro strategy stock up to $1,610. That’d be absolutely amazing. Now why do I think they could potentially get that multiple? Let’s take a look at this chart. So in the recent Q2 earnings from strategy, it’s about a two hour call. It’s worth, it’s worth watching if you care about this stuff. And what Michael Saylor showed in this presentation, he showed this chart. And what they’re doing is they’re selling these preferred products.

So they’ve launched for now strike, strife, stride, and now stretch. And what they’re doing is they’re selling Bitcoin backed credit and equity instruments into the market into hundreds of trillions of dollars that are stuck by mandates that cannot buy Bitcoin. All right. There’s enormous appetite for this. And that’s creating a leveraged play on Bitcoin. So they’re selling those products and they’re buying more Bitcoin. Now, if Bitcoin over a 10 year period, if Bitcoin were to say go up over the next 10 years at 30% right now in the last three years, it’s averaging 65%.

But last five years, it’s like 85%. But let’s call it 30. If it goes up at 30% over the next 10 years, and micro strategy is able to pull off a 30% leverage ratio, right now they’re selling these products that gives them the leverage, that would mean that they would have about a three times multiple. If they can get up to, you know, 40%, that’d put them at a 4.4 times multiple. And you can see how the math works out. All right. So I think get into a three or four times multiple Bitcoin holding at 30% leverage ratio, 30 to 40%.

So somewhere in the three to four, four and a half times range seems about right. So micro strategy get into $1,600 per share doesn’t seem that far off. Again, this is all just math, but it’s guessing off of the math from historical. And as we say, in the investing world, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Okay. How do we use all this specifically? How do we use it in my fund? How do we use it in the public company that I’m a Bitcoin strategist for? How do I use it personally? What’s my strategy? Number one, I buy, I don’t sell and I hold.

Okay. So what do I do? I use data to guide my decisions. Okay. So we understand as of right now, we have these cycles. Now what happens is I don’t want to, what everybody wants to do, don’t do this. What everybody wants to do is they want to try to time it. I want to sell here and I want to buy here and I want to sell here and I want to buy here. When you look backwards on the chart, it looks very easy and I have all this data and I have all these analytics and I have all these indicators.

And so I could just do that, right? No, the problem is, is that most people, well, unless you have a lot of luck on your side, you can’t really do this. What happens is let’s say that you did buy here right around here, it starts looking expensive. So you sell, but the problem is it keeps running, running, running, running, and then by the time it draws down, you’re going to buy back in, you probably won’t buy here. You’d probably buy here and you’re going to buy in higher. You’re going to buy in higher than where you sold out.

Now, if you’re just a trader and you’re just trying to get more dollars, you’re a fiat maximalist, you know, that could work. You could buy it at a thousand, sell it at 4,000, buy back in at 6,000, sell at 20,000, buy back in at 30,000, right? That works. But if your goal is to try to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible, like my goal is, then I don’t want to do this. What I want to do is I use the data to guide my buying decisions. So I’m averaging in, I’m dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin on a regular basis.

So every time I have spare money, I’m putting it into Bitcoin. But what I’m doing is when things start looking expensive, I can lower my buys. So I’m putting less money in. When it looks really, really hot, I might not even put my money into Bitcoin at this time. Maybe I’ll leave it on the sidelines waiting. When it starts getting cheap, I can start laddering my buys back in. I keep buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying. Here I hold. And then as it’s getting cheap, I buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, and I hold.

That’s how I’m using it. All right. There’s a couple things that I want to make you aware of. I can make a separate video if this is interesting to you. Number one, the law of large numbers. We can see that the Bitcoin’s return profile is diminishing. I think there’s a case for why it starts accelerating again. The KGAR, Compounding On End of Growth Rate, could go up again. If you want a whole video on that, let me know in the comments down below. But another thing is that the makeup of the buyers, we’re seeing retail selling and now these Bitcoin treasury companies are buying.

And so the change in the ownership is also going to change these cycles as well. I think the age of seeing 70, 80, 90% drawdowns could be over. So be very careful on how you use this data. And that’s how we’re using it. Now, if you want to see more indicators, I have a video where I have my top five indicators you should be watching and we’ll put it right here and I’ll see you over there. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.