We’re already seeing big moves into the Middle east of various texts, neuralink going in there. Their law system will allow them to start testing on humans, chips in the brain, long before, I suspect, the American system. We’ve been doing that for decades, just on the software level. Experimenting with people’s brains, children’s brains, with, you know, methamphetamine in our kids, and serotonin reuptake inhibitors. We still don’t know what the very long term consequences of these things are, but you can see how insane people have become feeding pseudo food to people. Processed food is just another word for derivative food.

We feed chemicals that come from food and put them into a new slop and, you know, have people ingest that while they’re on drugs and then see how they behave. They become stupid and they become crazy and they’re willing to inject themselves with whatever, with whatever people say they’re. They want to. That the government wants to inject them with. No, they did it. They blew it up. And then the apes blew up their society too. How could this happen? And then the birds took over and ruined their society. And then cows. And then, I don’t know.

Is that a slug? Maybe. Hey, guys, Raf here from the Endgame investor. And I’ve got a really special guest today. I’ve been waiting to have him on the channel for many months. A lot of people have been telling me that I should talk to this guy. This is Francis Hunt, the market sniper. His links will be in the description below. I highly recommend his service, his services and his commentary. We agree on a lot of stuff and we’re going to go into exactly what we agree on, what we disagree on, and compare and contrast it. Francis, thank you so much for coming on.

How you doing? Delighted to be with you. Thank you for the invite, Rafi. You’re welcome. Thank you for coming on. So the first thing that I wanted to ask you is that I heard that we agree a lot on the timing, not specifically on a date or anything like that, but that we are very close to some kind of end game where everything in the monetary system just spirals out of control. I just wanted to ask you when and how did the light go off in your head? That we’re not headed for some kind of slow attrition grinding society just continually getting poorer for decades and decades and decades.

What made you understand that there’s going to be an explosion of some kind and this is going to end? Yes, it’s a good point and it’s a great question. And I want to highlight. There’s a tendency for people to want to just be extreme for the sake of being extremist, you know, to take a really duma view or to, you know, it must all be shock and awe and all of that just for headlines. And I truly am not that like that. I refer to the major economic crashes we had in 87, 99, stroke, 2000, 2008 and of course 2020 and then where we are today in 2025.

And there’s one key difference about today. This is my key thinking. In 87, Alan Greenspan dropped the rates. V shaped recovery. The stock market plunged for the better part of 30%. I think it was the biggest amount in a given single day and recovered pretty quickly. 99 going into 2000, people thought planes were going to fall out of the sky because of the millennium bug. I never thought that I was not high doomer drama. The profits of doom. Thor’s going to be throwing anvils down from the SK. So it’s again 2000. It passed. There was a bit of a mild recession for George Senior, which did for him after he said no tax increases.

Read my lips, read my lips. No new taxes. Yeah, read my lips. That’s right. The Congress will push me to raise taxes and I’ll say no, and they’ll push and I’ll say no and they’ll push again and I’ll say to them, read my lips. So that was the main story again 2000. We never saw anything. In fact we, we’d started a property company anticipating a globalization which was going to lead to very low interest rates. Because when you globalize and you go free trade, the pie gets bigger for everybody. And without even increasing your percentage of the pie, you get more largesse and that tends to mean much lower a tendency for things to go up less because the cost of production is pursued to the lowest relative value in economics, which a lot of it was obviously China in the East, Thailand, Vietnam, etc.

And you get a once off boom almost. And we got an assets class boom. We had the dot com boom which was rebounded. We had stocks and properties boom all as a result of this expansionism of free trade. But the reason I mention all that is because we’ve now started a process of the reversing of that. And so once again we were bullish. And as I say, I was in a property sourcing company. We used to buy a whole developments, we did exceedingly well. We were putting property into people’s buy to let mortgages bang that came to an end going into 809 viciously once the quality of underwriting started to get under it.

And I saw that personally, I felt it personally, I saw valuers were waving things through. This was in the United Kingdom, not even, you know, United States, which had the robo signing. And I said this doesn’t end well. And sure enough we had the yield curve inversion. So we’ve kind of, I think like me, you, you’re not. This is not your first rodeo and you’ve seen these things happen before. So when we talk and answering your question, it’s, it’s. People tend to think, oh, you’re just somebody who’s going to scream, you know, the end is nigh.

The old man with the beard on the corner with, you know, the sign on the street corner, the end is nigh. Having given you that prelude. The thing that’s different about 2025 over all the others is that when you created sufficient fear, as you did in CV19, which I haven’t referenced greatly in that prelog, is money left the equity markets at a rapid rate. It left bitcoin. It all stormed into fear trade which was by the bond market. And we got a blow off valuation in the bonds. The that was the end of a 40 year bull in bond markets that basically took us from 2019, 80 to 2020.

And that was an extreme capitulation in yields. You had a little window for governments that literally could borrow almost as much as they want, create as much stimulus as they want and pay an incredibly low coupon rate. And they exploited it like hell and that’s what happened. And all as a macro technical analyst, which is something this is my pride, looking at charts on big time frames, I was very disappointed how few, in fact, I don’t know anyone other than us that said hold on, this is a blow off in valuations on the bond market, which is typically how markets end.

A lot of people saw it in the stock market in 99 with the dot com. There was no one watching the bond market that called that, not that I know of anyway in the public sphere of space. And we said that is the end of a 40 year bull cycle. And it was a first call, that was a reversal call on the debt markets. And it’s continued to hold out true for the four or five years that have now followed. And you take an escalator up and you get the elevator on the way down. So that’s been our thesis.

So why is 25 different? Well, everybody who says Francis, you’re wrong, they’ll just print printer goes. You know they’re just going to do all of that. Everyone just rinse repeating the whole narrative. To do that you need to have a captured flow of money that is exiting other assets that is happy to rush into bonds. The problem that’s happened with the United States is that the confidence in the country and the confidence in debt has gone and the yields are far higher and they already choking on an interest rate payment which is approaching 25% of the tax receipts at the moment and they’ve got 7 trillion to rollover.

So when people say printer go, the question is you’ve got to understand the mechanism. Somebody has to buy that as an asset. Scared money has got to want to be taking the other side of that trade. You can’t just print go unless you yourself are self monetizing it. Which is of course the pure definition of a completed circular Ponzi scheme. And we’ve already started to see at current values of debt, the Fed has had to get involved and provide liquidity. 10 billion here and 10 billion there. So that is the premise and the justifications we provide and how things have changed as to why this gets disorderly and you have contagion.

The other key point is you’ve now seen the big heads talking their book Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller and the tail end of 2024 in November saying guys, we’re short, this is a problem. You’ve got the real other big heads that have been writing books like Ray Dalio and all of that saying this is a real problem. You have Captain America, Warren Buffett say, you know what, I’m living forever and I love what I do, but I’m calling time here. I’ve always been America. You won the lottery being born in America. But I’m handing over right now to the more internationalist guy who will probably diversify a whole bunch more.

And I’m stepping down. And my parting comments are I’m concerned about the dollar, I’m concerned about the deficit and I’m concerned about the debt levels and I don’t know how anyone fixes that. So what’s actually happened is some of the best minds in finance have joined our view that the. You’re on the other side of the Rubicon now given this debt market bull market. So that’s quite a long form answer. So I’ll just let that go back to you and you can take off wherever you want. All right, so I pretty much agree with you on all of that.

I want to go into where we part ways just to explain where I am and you can fill in where you are. So I think where we disagree is what happens afterwards. I am an end is nigh guy, but in a very positive way because I see that all of the chaos that we’re experiencing right now, I mean, we just spoke about. There’s a possibility that I might have to leave this interview because of a bomb, air raid siren that might go off at any time. We’re in. It looks like we’re already in World War Three.

None of us like that. But essentially it’s funded. All these wars are funded by the same money printing. And that is what’s going to end. Now that, that in my view, that ends because they can print money. They can do whatever they want. They could push a button. But the question is, does that have any value? And as you said, it has to capture. It has to capture money flows from people who have value, want to put it into bonds to capture that money, to capture that flow in order to continue the war that’s going to end.

And so I say that once that happens and the dollar has no more value, therefore no other currencies have any value. And the core power of all of these governments that are conducting all these wars is the fact that they can leech value off of us. Once that ends, yes, we do have a lot of chaos. We have a lot of societal breakdown, especially in the big cities. But at least we end the core of power that these governments have and then it’s up to us to rebuild. And I think that’s going to be mainly the stackers.

So I think you’re more on the side of we head into a totalitarian dictatorship of CBDCs. But how is that possible? If the currencies have no value, how can they, how can they retain control? By just adding another layer to the pyramid that’s already collapsed. So there’s more orchestration in our model than possibly in yours. People. Our position is that this particular event has had some degree, if not a very high degree of planning. In other words, it’s a synchronized. I call it the leper colony. There is no nation really of sound money. Some might point to Switzerland, for example, being less bad, and Singapore or Uruguay and Latin America, for example.

But generally, if you’re talking about major, this is a leper colony. We all joined the leper colony and we kissed the chief leper to ensure that we were all infected by the same disease, which is over indebtedness, over expenditure to our income. That points to A degree of it’s okay coordination that runs throughout most of the Western world and most of the other nations for that matter, including emerging markets too. So there seems to be one predominant school of thought and it’s kind of the neo Keynesians, turbo plus MMT type type theory. I wouldn’t say everybody is in exactly that camp.

That’s a very broad generalization. Some are a little bit more stoic and there’s some parliaments where there are some people that actually speak up for sound money and gold. Switzerland, quite popular, comes up and of course you have those movements in every nation like America, Ron Paul, etc. Etc. But they haven’t won the day. What’s actually happened, and we’ve seen this with Trump with the big beautiful bill, is, is that in actual fact there’s an increase of 5 trillion on the debt ceiling. So despite all of his comments surrounding potential bankruptcy of the United States, he’s gone for a massive spend, I think a trillion on debt.

There’s a move of the debt ceiling. So it’s talk one game to get elected, but in the end they get bent to the agenda of a massive growing government. Government doesn’t vote. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas in that sense. And we have a self propagating, enlarging government that keeps voting for the statist expenditure in the statist areas such as military, industrial complex, et cetera, et cetera, and many others. So with that they are plowing a certain course that leads to that and they would have recognized that and I suspect that they will have a plan for ensuring they retain control.

So my study of history or the history of money and power is that those two go hand in hand. And there’s no way that the next generation is not being prepared for. And what we’re probably seeing is a transition of one system into a slightly more technocratic, that’s in our model, oligarchical system which has a higher degree of control. So data surveillance, these things have become far more mainstream. And the biggest victim in our view has been personal liberty and privacy. And I think if you take the events of CV19, that’s held up, if you look at, you know, various status organizations, there’s been a lot about Palantir and other organizations doing various databases, biometrics, all of this, this is a very tight digital surveillance outcome.

And I don’t think we are all going to, you and I are going to get that freedom to write our new system come this explosive end. We aren’t the people that are holding the Levers in power. And this is I think an engineered dead end whereby what’s already in the wings gets put into place. You look at the SNB’s Carstens, some of his comments, commentary about the benefits of CBDCs. These are people that are talking, planning, trialing, running, have already begun working on a new system. So I don’t think I’m a tin pot hat conspiracy theorist for just listening to them and repeating what they say.

There’s clearly, there is clearly a plan in our take as far as I’m concerned from all balance of probabilities. Well, so let me interject here. I mean I certainly agree that they’re planning this and they want total control. From my study of history, I see power centers falling all the time. Every few hundred years another empire falls. Babylonians, Greeks, Persians, Rome, they all fell. And then you had a dissolution. And then the difference between then and now is that back then it wasn’t the whole planet like Rome could fall. And then Persia could still, the Parthians could still have a society where Rome took about a thousand years to rebuild or Greek could fall and Rome could replace it.

But now it’s the entire planet. And by that I mean monetarily we’re all on the dollar standard. So basically America’s already taken over the world and when they fall, the entire planet falls. So we have a global reset. The difference is that I don’t think it’s going to be on their terms. I mean, I don’t take the story of the Tower of Babel literally, but I do take it as ancient divine wisdom that God is saying that everyone will always try to take over the world. I mean, you always have these Babel societies where they’re building a huge tower and want to centralize all power, but they’re always going to fall.

It’s not going to happen. So my challenge to you would be if your view of, of the dystopia that’s ahead is so negative. What, what are you, what are you planning for? Why are you continuing? What, what keeps you going? You know, Rafi, we born for all these times. There’s been long periods in the world which have had quite dark futures. Dark periods before Nothing, nothing, nothing that you encounter is entirely unique. I would say there will be unique aspects to it, but the human race has gone through pretty dark spells. And let me also say within all of that slightly dystopian, in terms of the macroeconomic and the controlling mechanisms, there is still life, there’s still love, there’s still health, there’s still fitness.

I’m fortunate to live in a lot of beautiful places. I swim in the ocean, I ride in nature. It actually increases the value of all that isn’t under their control. To me, the more I’m able to do that and I encourage others to embrace that aspect of life. You just sometimes have to keep going. It’s the Winston Churchill when walking through the dark valley of death, you know, just keep walking, keep going. We shall fight on the seas and oceans. We shall defend our isle, whatever the cost may be. We shall never surrender. Then they shall save us.

Never have so many, oh, so much to serve you. He was known for having depression and all of that. I’m not trying to depress people. I think the best thing is to set a low bar for your expectations of government and those behind governments, the handlers, they continue to disappoint. They continue to do very well by themselves at the cost of the people. And I should see no reason for that to change. It is a ruling class of entitlement and it tends to be, you know, you look at France with Macron, you’re not going to say it’s greatly different with Keir Starmer in the UK and the big beautiful Bill, despite all the talk about living within your means that Trump is bringing around, but people are still living a good life and having a great time.

I’m just talking in an economic sense, in terms of freedom and liberty. This is not going to be a banner period for personal freedoms that we’re going to go into. So the best thing to do, and your question was, well, how do you prepare for that, is to set yourself up where at least you have domain over, I would say a large piece of land, maybe rurally rather than a small apartment urbanly. That would just be one example of how you will assert domain have nature on it and a license to nurture nature. We have people here with game, deer, buck, kudu.

I currently wake up and I look at horses very close to a beach with a beautiful mountain range. That is how you will still be reminded of the beauty of things like nature. Just don’t over focus on the one area that is clearly going in a bad trend. Other things potentially will go in an upward trend. Communities might pull together more, people will get to know their local farmers more. There will be more on the ground neighborliness. We’ll refine ourselves outside of the digital technocracy. Or some people will just get totally dopamine addicted and they’ll be lost.

This is why we regularly reference it’s a polarizing event. It’s a polarizing event by wealth gold, the gold holders, the silver precious metals holders versus those that will be dollar holders. We know the valuation expectations we both have and agree on in terms of that. And you’re going to have the same in terms of are you going to become a subject of the digital world and it’ll all be crypto and virtual holidays or goggles or are you going to keep a foot in reality while we walk this scientific experiment it’s Almost like the CV19 are you going to take the vaccine or are you not? And are you going to reap the outcomes of your decisions? To what extent are you going to be a forced I don’t know in future cases but I’ve chosen that I’m going to pursue personal liberty and the physical world over the digital world but I will need to participate to a tiny degree because you have to be within the matrix just to basically function.

So that’s the line I’m walking very much on the border of their new idealized game and I’m encouraging others to do that so that we can have a lot of other people that we can establish community with of like mindedness when this new experiment fails, much like the outcomes of the post vaccine era. So those that are left standing will be healthier, better off and able to help the others and also more like mindedness to form community. So there’s work to be done. That’s all I’m really saying. I don’t, I’m my pitch is not music to commit suicide to.

It’s absolutely the opposite. It’s a call for warriors to stand up and you know that’s that’s my response to your take. It is dark macroeconomically and I’m pretty sure I’m accurate but as ever no one can talk about the future with certainty. And I always attach on my trading opinions obp which means on balance of probabilities. That’s my assessment and if we saw a sudden flex in other ways I would be delighted for your take to be correct that we’ll all be active stakeholders redrawing a far more puritanical liberty orientated world post whatever stop break comes in on the collapse of the dollar based system but I just don’t think we really are going to be consulted in a sincere sense anyway.

Yeah, so what you’re saying reminds me, you know, communities coming together there is what to hope for. Reminds me of the book the Mao’s Great Famine by Frank de Cast Coder if you haven’t read it. It’s about the probably pretty much the biggest man made holocaust in, in human history. You know the Jews like to say, oh, the Holocaust, 6 million Jews, it was the worst. But it really wasn’t. China had 45 million starved to death by Mao. And there were a few, few chapters in that book about people who escaped it. Had they escape it, they, they ran away to the forest and they were basically like fishing with like poles and string and they guy, they caught a few fish, they knew how to forage and they were pretty much fine for the four years 1958 to 1962 while everyone else in the cities were starving to death.

So yeah, that you can escape it. It’s possible. And if, and if I’m going to take what you’re saying and crystallize it and just a basic principle is that stay away as much as you can from derivatives. I mean we talk about money, we want to stay away from the dollar, especially when I stay away from bank deposits which are even worse than cash. You want to stay away from the derivatives of bank deposits which are debt. The farther you get up the derivative chain, the more dangerous it is. If you stay down to earth. But also if you stay out of virtual reality, Google goggles, screens too much and stay in the real world, you can keep your sanity because in the end we’re animals and we are physical.

So if we stay on the ground we will be able to think better and then organize better and fight this totalitarian dictatorship that’s coming more for you, less for me. We’ll see what happens. Hopefully I’m right. If you’re right, I’ll handle it anyway. And I just wanted to get into the timing and what you were asking at the beginning, I was talking about bank reserves and when this whole thing really starts to shake wildly. So my basic theory, it’s not that complicated, is that in 2019 there was a repocalypse, the repo market, which is the big base of the, let’s say the aorta of the, of the monetary sewers.

Like it all flows through there, $2.6 trillion a day. Now that kind of broke down in 2019, which you could say was the proximate cause for the eventual Covid printing. And maybe Covid was an excuse, maybe it wasn’t. Whatever you want to think about that, it, it happened. So there’s going to be another apocalypse because the treasury is running out of money. It has about $280 billion left. When it runs out of money, it’s going to have to raise the debt ceiling and they, they’re going to have to sell Treasuries and they’re, where’s the, where the dollar is going to come from if the Fed’s not printing them? They’re going to come from bank reserves which are now being used, about 80% of them, to fund the repo market, which is getting bigger and bigger and bigger.

So you can’t have, my point is you can’t have the government raising money from bank reserves while those bank reserves are also funding the repo market. Something’s going to crash here. And once that does, the Fed’s going to have to step in, is going to have to do what it did in 2020 and I think that’s going to be the end of it. So that’s, the treasury is going to run out of money in about August and then there’s going to raise the debt ceiling and then let’s say a few weeks later, maybe a month later, there’s going to be a crash between repo and the treasury fighting for the same dollars and then we have the final QE and then just bam, the dollar dies.

That’s what I see. What do you see? I find that very interesting. I think the plumbing of the financial system as per the repo market is very potentially going to be another place because banks will be looking at each other, knowing their own state and wandering to the state of other banks. So we have seen this clustering of money into the major banks. I mean the Rockefeller era saw a lot of the small localized banks go under that were actually servicing the community at the expense of far bigger banks. And now we, I think we’re continuing to crowd into the ever bigger banks.

And I think repo markets are a perfect way to isolate a medium sized bank and to query it. Standing as a counter question to this, bank of America was bought about 500 billion treasuries when they were, when they were yielding around 1% as part of its collateral. And I’m just curious what your take is given that we are closer to 5, or call it 4.5% on the 10 year, what that should mean for that bank’s particular collateral in terms of valuation and how we are not seeing greater degree of journalism and inquiry as to the solvency of even the big banks such as bank of America.

What’s your, what’s your take on that? And how, how could it overlay or juxtapose with your theory? Because surely the collateral and the collapse of the treasury markets with so many of the big banks actually being big investors in it should actually bring into question on a mark to market basis their solvency as well as the Fed itself. So I have a general answer to that. In particular, I don’t know about bank of America. I know they have a lot of unrealized losses because they were a big participant in this whole money printing scheme which they’re a middleman in.

So my basic answer to that kind of question is yeah, every bank is insolvent to greater or lesser degree because they don’t have any money, they just have dollars which are based on debt, which are based on dollars. It’s a loop that feeds in on itself. So yeah, I mean you could have bank of America pulling, what was it of Silicon Valley bank situation where they suddenly sell all of their, their for sale securities or their health and maturity securities or whatever because they need to raise capital. But if they do that, they’re going to call up the Fed a few weeks before and say, look, this is a situation, we need your help now or this is going to happen.

It could be bank of America, it could be Wells Fargo, whatever, and then the Fed’s going to rescue them because they can’t allow a systemically important bank to fail. Now the question is, will the next bailout lead to the destruction of the dollar? And I think it will. And I think that’ll be the end game. The Fed can’t allow the banking system to unravel because if it starts to unravel, the entire thing eventually unravels. You can’t stop it in the middle, you can only expand it more. So if, if, if they allow one bank to fail, then everything fails.

Then we go back to 1971. Gold at $35 an ounce of, but the prices of everything, so many dollars get wiped out that even if gold goes back down to 35 as it was in 1971, the purchasing power of that $35 will be so high because everyone’s bank deposits will be gone. Yeah, yeah, scarcity. I agree with how you said, I mean bank of America wouldn’t just try sell. And there’s not that liquidity. Despite the market cap of the debt market, there isn’t the liquidity. And they’re a shareholder in the Federal Reserve, so no doubt they would have those conversations.

I get the imp that the dollar is going to be the main release valve for a while and that even though we have seen a weak dollar, even against flawed currencies such as the Euro and others, you’re probably going to see Quite a bit more because as people are gathering on the short side of the debt markets, it’s not in the Fed’s interest that they are allowed to push it into a disorderly decline. So they’re actually going to let the currency take the hits and try hold the debt valuations where they are as much as they can for now.

So we’ve already seen that in part, but many people don’t realize the scale of the unwind and I think some trends persist far more than people expect, despite having already moved pretty far. And my suspicion is that the dollar’s devaluation. You had a couple of reports like Deutsche bank for example, which I found quite interesting. That said, for the trade deficit, the big problem for America is essentially they were exporter of debt and dollars, fiat and usts. They actually have trade deficits with just about everyone, including the Eurozone, which is why Trump has made some pointed remarks to the EU as well as just China and why they want Europe to buy their energy rather than Russian energy.

It’s part of trying to sort out a chronic deficit with two major economic blocks. And so part and parcel of that, Deutsche bank said, you know, the dollar would have to lose 40% so that you actually had a balanced trade deficit, the surplus. That was their calculation. And you’ve had Goldman Sachs saying they still think that the dollar is 15% overvalued. So Trump was never going to be the man to say we need a weaker dollar. It’s not macho, it’s not in terms of his thing. You know, he said the dollar is the thing in 2016, his first tenor.

He can’t come in and start talking like that. But, but Goldman can do it for him. And they’ve said the dollar is 15% overvalued. So the entire system as a whole, the ecosystem across the top can try to do his work for him. So I think that, I think the dollar goes down without actually interest rates being meaningfully cut. You just had another, you’ve had the war where there was pressure to put Powell to cut the rates. They’ve been already intervening to hold the values at the current price to cut the rates, which would further higher value the bonds.

That would mean even higher intervention required from the Fed. So I think rates stay where they are and actually in the longer run go higher as part and parcel of the reversal of trend in the debt markets. But they need to stop the debt going down for a bit and calm the shorts there. So that means the dollar becomes the whipping boy and can go on for longer than people suspect. So I’m expecting FX volatility and further weakness on the dollar as part and parcel of managing these trade deficits and other aspects as well. So I don’t know what your take is on that of the.

The dollar’s purchasing power continually falling even relative to other fiats, let’s say. So we’re talking in a relative assessment. We agree, I think, that all fiats are going down against gold and precious metals and that everyone should be stacking, but just in a relative sense on account of trade deficits and the surpluses being run by China and the eu. Okay, so I can. I’m going to take. I’ll try to answer this again in a broad sense of what I think of trade deficits. If we just take this down to like a single example, like down to Crusoe and economics.

When we’re trying to analyze economics by the Crusoe analogy, like one guy trading with himself. So what, I mean, what is a trade deficit? Like, imagine you’re a bum at home. You don’t have a job, but for some reason you have this printing press that your father gave you because he was so productive and people trusted him. And so you keep printing his notes and they trust his notes because he was such a productive guy. And now you’re just like, printing notes and buying a bunch of stuff and putting it in your house and you’re really rich, but you don’t do anything.

And then all of a sudden, I mean, that’s a trade deficit. You’re exporting debt. You’re printing the money. You’re exporting debt. You’re bringing all this stuff into your house, supporting your family or your friends or, you know, getting drunk every night. Whatever it is you’re doing that, that costs a lot of money. And then all of a sudden, everyone says, no, we’re not going to take your trade deficits anymore. We’re not going to take this stuff. You’re going to have to start working. So the trade deficit itself is not bad. I mean, it’s. It’s bad in a way.

Like, it signals that you’re not doing anything and you’re importing a lot of stuff, which is going to crash in the end because at some point people aren’t going to take your notes anymore. But there’s no way you can reverse it by force by forcing people to buy you. I mean, let’s say you’re that bum again and you produce these, like, crappy little toys that nobody wants. And you’re like, buy My toys. So I can like we have a, a balanced trade deficit. Like why, why would you, like, that’s not going to help you because you know what, what gives you your wealth is the fact that you don’t have to do anything and you get all this wealth.

So, so there’s no stopping the trade deficit if you’re not going to stop the inflation that’s causing it. Because it’s the inflation that’s habituating you into being able to import the stuff into your house without having to do anything. So that, that’s going to end. It’s going to end through the destruction of the purchasing power of the dollar. And that’s the end game. And that’s when we all go back to gold. Not because people are like, well gold has, it’s not like people think academically. Well, gold has been money for 5,000 years because this economist said it and that economist said it and their theories are proven correct.

It’s more like an instinct, like an economic instinct that humans have. How did we discover that that gold was the most liquid commodity? It’s not that that somebody decided, we didn’t take a vote. It’s just people started trading it because it worked. And that’s what’s going to happen again. People will start trading gold directly because the dollars of work. So what else are you going to use? Yeah, the sad fact, Triffin’s Dilemma means, you know, essentially USTs and dollars as the primary export and there’s now a surplus of that. It is, you know, there’s a lot of American maximalists that will say, well it’s the most utilized, most recognized and it is, that’s all true.

So I continue to see the dollar, it’s the last thing its utility will continue to be used. Its buying power though generally I just think will drop immensely until people start to do a little bit of substitution and they start to become concerned if it gets disorderly. But the hegemon. Here’s my big dilemma that I have with a lot of the more American based YouTube influencer. They seem to say every time you point out the problems that America has to go through, which is a chronic downgrade in living standards that’s brought about by the dollar and debt collapse for the American.

They seem to always go, we are but China’s property market and the euro’s awful and all these other things and they will have their own version of problems because you don’t have a collapse of a hegemon without it causing waves and ripples. But they seem to fail to realize that when you are the hegemon you are in the eye of the storm. You’re the guy falling off the 26 foot ladder while everyone else is falling off three and four foot ladders exactly like a king. And I find it’s, it’s, it’s a big problem because it sounds like I’m hating on Americans to give a message to people that I’ve always been treated very well by.

I visit there often and as I say they’re good people, good hearted people. We’re talking about a governance system rather than the people. But because of patriotism and nationalism they tend to think they’re attacking. And there’s a sense of cope which goes yeah but the other guys are this and he’s got a dirty nappy and he’s you know, we’re the most clean shirt in the laundry or the, the fittest horse in the glue factory or all these various analogies. And I go no, you’re standing right in the middle of the storm, you’re getting the harshest winds, you’ve got the furthest to fall but you have to keep falling once you’ve lost hegemon status until your living standards are so low that actually manufacturing in your country starts to become value again and you have to become more productive that you can actually compete with a nation like China.

And that’s a long way down. It might not be in manufacturing that they will find their flaw, it might be in other areas. But at the moment they’ve been this, the capital magnet for tech unicorns. That’s what, that’s the ace card that is still to fall. You know, Google, the Californian garage syndrome. And my big concern is many don’t realize that actually all that formation of value, a lot of it I’ve since was status can start to drip feed away. We’re already seeing big moves into the Middle east of various texts neuralink going in there. Their law system will allow them to start testing on humans chips in the brain long before I suspect the American system.

I’m not saying that’s a virtue by the way but it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s kind of, you know, hey, we were all about progress and eventually this capital formation moving to Singapore which will be the acceptable face of China and Southeast Asia for the west. The Middle east, the Dubai Emirates, Qatar, all of these areas including where you are, these places are going to be the winners actually. So when I talk a duma story a little bit about the hegemon collapse, they’re actually nations that are going to do quite a bit better out of the death because they’re going to take up part of the role that was served by the US as the, as the US just becomes another large nation, participants generally, you know, like a Canada and an Australia combined and a couple more nations.

I think I’ve got to make up 300 million in that. But they don’t anymore become this fulcrum, this utter fulcrum of Wall street power and dominance and that a lot of that talent can then go. Here’s the thing that’s going to happen once you start to get contagion, the ability to develop all the boomer promises, Medicare, welfare, all of this, the money available isn’t going to be there. Those are the guys that vote. They’re going to demand that the lower generations beneath them pay for them. Those people are going to get into a tax scavenge mode by government to maintain the voter base that is the boomer generation’s largesse for their retirement.

So you’re going to have, it’s going to convert into a high tax environment. We’re already seeing this in the uk, admittedly under a left wing government rather than what’s currently a conservative. I say conservative right wing government in America. But next time you see the Democrats in power and you have the aging boomers as voters and you have all the immigrant population, this is going to be a bigger squeeze on the middle, the upper middle class, the middle, et cetera in America. And you can expect taxation to what I call government scavenge mode. And this is not going to make a nice environment.

Don’t forget the demographics are almost inverted there. Whilst in Indonesia they’re more like that. So this is why I fear that people don’t see their ace cards of tech formation. It’s young minds, it’s open minds, it’s technologically astute minds. For every you know that people will tell you there’s 10,000 nuclear physicists in the China for every one there is in America. So unfortunately innovation is slowly going to be moving away to the more capitalist. Amazingly, I’m saying that because America will cease to be capitalist as these draconian tax ruses come in. So there’s, there’s, there’s an entire shift of talent.

It’s, it’s and it follows Rafi the gold. The gold moves from west to east and so will all forms of industry. Because once you debase money, you debase the foundations of an incentivized capitalist innovative growth economy and you add the Demographics into that, you’ve got unfortunately a fall of empire on hands. And, and as I say, I don’t cheer it. I’m not sure I’m going to like having China as a greater influence in the world, Dubai as a greater influence in the world, or Qatar. I’d prefer it stayed under Americans potentially. But that’s got nothing to do.

My preferences are not what’s being considered here. This is an economic tide, it’s a demographic, it’s a lot of things and it’s a debasement of money. And unfortunately it’s the end of an exploitation of an exorbitant privilege which was the hegemon’s primary currency of the world. And I feel that’s where we’re at. And most people are not seeing that. A lot of the good stuff is actually can float between nations and regions and a lot of that spirit will go with it. The ethereal topics, you know, of creativity and all of that, it will flow away and people will move.

Instead of to America, which was aspirational, they’ll be moving to some of these other places. I don’t know what your thoughts are on that. Okay, well, the first thought I had to, what you were saying is you’re saying something about neuralink and these experiments of putting hardware in the brain that just, that just stuck with me. So, you know, my response to that, My response to that is we’ve been doing that for decades just on the software level. We’ve been experimenting with the, you know, all these pharmaceutical companies have just been, become big drug dealers experimenting with people’s brains, children’s brains, with, you know, methamphetamine in our kids and serotonin reuptake inhibitors.

We still don’t know what the very long term consequences of these things are, but you can see how insane people have become. And you know, just like I’m reminded of a Simpsons episode with the Movementarians. When these cultists take over Springfield and they feed the population gruel, why isn’t our low protein gruel wearing down its resistance like all the others? It doesn’t wear down your resistance if you eat a whole month’s supply. He even ate mine. That’s basically what we’ve been doing, feeding pseudo food to people. Processed food is just another word for derivative food. We feed chemicals that come from food and put them into a new slop and you know, have people ingest that while they’re on drugs and then see how they behave.

They become stupid and they become crazy and they’re willing to, inject themselves with whatever with that people say they’re. They want to. That the government wants to inject them with. And primarily these are the boomers. They’ve been on this for. They’ve been on these, this pseudo slop food for so long on. On drugs for so long that, you know, how many pills do. Do boomers take? Who knows what they do. Blood thinners, Lipitor, whatever it is. And we don’t know what any of this stuff does very long term because all these placebo controlled trials are shams to some degree, or not complete shams, but they’re mostly shams.

Yeah. So this is, this is all going to fall apart. I just wanted to. I wanted to ask you one more question that. Wait, what was it? Hold on, I’ll edit this out. Right. You, you are into, uh, trade and that. I’m not saying you’re a day trader, but you’re into timing things and generally trading the casino until the end game comes. I. Now, if we’re talking about a casino on fire where everyone’s dealing in these chips, this fake money, and, and everyone’s stuck in the casino and in order to get out of it, what, before it burns down, you have to cash out and, you know, go into the real world, how long are you willing to continue to trade the market until you say, oh, you know what? This is getting too crazy for me.

I’m cashing out in gold and that’s it. And how are you confident you’ll be able to time it before the walls come caving in? I’m less fiddling while Rome burns than you probably think. We are positioned traders. We’re not day traders. And we are also, simultaneously, which might sound like a dichotomy, sympathetic to the concept of the great taking. And we are very concerned about counterparty risk. We think this is deeply being underpriced. And we expect wholesale reneging and potentially loss of bank balances, which could also include loss of brokerage, bank brokerage balances. So in terms of owning equities, I don’t believe when you buy equities on Charles Schwab that you do actually own them.

In the absence of paper certificates, you only own a derivative. And that refers back to my sympathy with an opinion you’ve already expressed, that we’re in a very strong derivative derived market rather than a primary market. And many people don’t even realize they’re in derivatives, not proxies. In other words, not the true assets. And so I run bank balances very lean, generally for my needs. I Keep cash at home because that can’t be stolen off you without a burglar coming with a gun or at the night when you’re not there. And I actually don’t have a huge share portfolio at all.

So I’m very positioned for the debasement of currency and debt and the bull run of gold. So many people will say, oh, 5% gold, 10% gold. I’m kind of like you were saying that to cover your analogy. The casino is already on fire, but it hasn’t exploded yet. There’s a gas canister that still has to be hit that it’s going to explode. And they’re still selling online insurance for the casino. So I’m deeply buying online insurance on the casino. And Instead of buying 5, 10 or 50%, I’d prefer to hold 250% insurance on the casino. So I’m applying the Druckenmiller’s pig, which when right be damn right.

I’d rather be able to build three new casinos out of my proceeds on that. So I don’t think people that I’ll say, oh, I’ll have a little bit of gold now and all of that. You’ve got to invest for the times. And I have quite high conviction on the fact that the debt debasement is inevitable. It’s mathematics and I don’t argue with mathematics. The mathematics says it’s beyond sustainability. The interest rates and interest rates can’t turn because the desirability of the asset is much less than it used to be. And as a result it’s a certainty, as you said, this casino will burn down and we’re just waiting for the gas canister to blow.

There’s actually already small fires at certain entrants already. So I’m kind of already half out the casino, but I have a vested interest in it on the basis of I’ve insured it two and a half times over for its value. So I don’t hold a high number of equities. I expect that to be lost. I expect actually when the clock stops, whatever bank balances I have to be potentially lost. And I’m even concerned this is. And again, I just think it makes sense to really have low expectations. That means I’m anything that does reasonably well, I’m actually quite satisfied with.

I expect them to want to tokenize our gold. I think they’re going to send clipboards around the equivalent of digital versions and you will have to declare gold first. They’ll ask, find out who has what and they’re gonna, you’re gonna have to register. Then you’ll be told you’ll be sent an NFT that has your name, your biometrics and that is your, your gold. And then at some point in the future as the currency devaluation has occurred, they’ll probably send you an unrealized capital gains forcing you to sell your gold to cover half the taxes. So I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m saying to people, where will you stand when confronted with that? As part and parcel of that.

But that’s all still to come. First we’re going to get a lot more upside. There’s going to be more people that might join the trade. The trade hasn’t really started the percentages in precious metals. We are like a click, we’re like a tin pot. Small niche, you and I, Rafi and a few others here on YouTube and a couple of sound money advocates. The percentages held by hedge funds vary between 0.5 and 2%. Most of them had one and some outright don’t have. This is generalist hedge funds that can invest anywhere. So the minute institutions get to 10% or 5% or 3%, you’re going to have to have a huge wall of money that’s going to have to move in on high net worth Individuals moving CBDCs and central banks a whole bunch more.

So the trade is precious metals and physically held don’t have it in a bank. So I’m three feet out of the casino with just an occasional dart in for a quick hit and run job. And I’m staying well away from the gas canister if engaged at all. And I suggest people should have that view if tomorrow you could wake up and the stress test is all bank balances shut. Done. Zeroized Russian hack. They did it. Iran hack, North Korea hack. Forget the narrative, they’ll give you some story. Everything zero. We didn’t do it. We didn’t expect this.

There was this vulnerability. Where do you stand? The cash you have at your house will be what you buy your bread with the next day. And your balance sheet will be how much physical metal you hold. That is my stop gap and my emergency sitting. And I wake up every morning and I check has that day come? So I expect again it might sound extreme but people should have that thinking about them. So my participation in the casino is apart from what I have in broker balances for trades. I work on the basis if I get an outlier move I would draw and I keep just enough at a certain size.

If I get uncomfortably large thanks to good trading success, I drain it away and I put it into metal. So that’s how I play the game. The stopwatch is about to stop at any point and it’s like everybody’s got a freeze. It’s musical chairs. Where you stand will be where you are. So that’s my framing for the when the casino blows. It’s. I don’t think I have a magic gun to tell you day, date and time, but I will watch technicals. Here’s what I’ll watch. It’s not part of your question, but it might be useful. USD JPY on carry trade.

The tenure and the 30 year on US debt and the funding mechanism that is Japan for America. The carry trade, the long end of Japan debt. We were covering Japanese debt with upside setups two years ago. It was the least watched video I’ve ever produced. And now it’s become current events. What could be more boring than a small island on the other side of the world and the bond market? Nobody wanted to know about it. All those targets are now run. Now Twitter is alive with people talking about the long end of the Japanese curve. So you watch the USD JPY in that I also watch the Swiss franc and then of course the precious metals prices and the gold silver ratio for when the relative valuations given gold’s positive move to platinum and silver suddenly flips over.

So those are all stage drops, key markets to watch. And I encourage everyone who’s listening to maybe put those in their top ten lists of Czech. I don’t over fascinate on the stock market either. If I don’t own the certificates, I don’t truly have a position. Well yeah, I agree with you on Japan certainly I see it as a metaphor. The current monetary order that we could call Post Bretton Woods. Bretton Woods Post Bretton woods really started at the end of World War II when America had conquered the world and nuked Japan twice. That should never ever happen to anyone.

And I think it will end by Japan dropping a financial nuke and the yen just imploding or exploding or whatever you want to say happens to it. They’re like the, the linchpin of if, if the dollar is the, the king of fiat, then, then the yen keeps it all together. That’s, that’s how I say so I do follow the Japanese yields also. So the. I want to close this off by if you want to share any of your services, where can people find you? And also I wanted to ask what’s the deal with the glasses? Why Are they yellow? Do they block some kind of UV rays? Or is, is that a health thing? And also, I heard you take ice baths.

How are those? Should people do that? What, what’s the benefit of those? Yes, those are great questions. So these, these here, the, the brand, and I’m not shilling for them. You can find them yourself. They call Gunner G U N N ar. This is UV light blockers from the laptop on to me. Do you have just big boxes and boxes and boxes of sunglasses at home? People give you them as I think you. Well, I do have a lot of them. Oh. So I, I think we’re being overexposed generally to blue lights at the wrong time.

Generally you should have a bit of blue light. It’s not blue light bad. But early in the morning. I wear my sunglasses at night. But in terms of eye strain, if you have a high exposure because you’re watching markets, particularly laptops, which are doubly strong, these are not even lens. So my sight is pretty good. It’s just protection. I find if I’ve spent a long day on computers, particularly laptops, I get a cranial spasm. Not a spasm, but like signal issues and various other things. And this releases the tension in my brow, so I tend to scrunch up.

So I would say generally preserve your eyes if you can. If you spend a lot of time on devices and you’ll be shocked how much that time adds up when you include phones and everything else. I’d also say, you know, switch them all off, not just airplane mode, but leave them to charge overnight, well away from the place where you sleep. A lot of people only see things that they see. If you saw multiband everything that’s going on, these interfere with your cells. They do a lot of things. Anyway, that’s the health tip on the eyesight.

In terms of some of the questions you asked. Dealing psychologically with this is going to be a disorderly event, probably a problem reaction, solution cycle that I’m putting forward as my model. It’s good to stay in good spirits. Cold plunge is incredibly good for your immune system. It’s very good for joints, it’s very good for health, it’s invigorating and you build your stamina. Doesn’t sound pleasant at first. If you can swim in a cold sea, that’s first prize. But I’m not always on the cold sea. I am luckily where I am here. But that’s incredibly good for your health.

And in fact, I’m having a spa area built on the home which is going to include sauna, cold plunge and a variety of what some people will consider crank hippie styled health remedies. But they’re very good for your health. And I would suggest that I also don’t eat three meals a day and various other things. A little bit eccentric. Maybe you can find out a bit more when if you get involved in our community. I tend to talk more about that there but I don’t want to bore people that aren’t into into that so much. But you, you owe it.

I intend to punish the governments of this world by my longevity and hanging around and being a pain in the ass and continuing to talk truth to power so that I’m going to just be that fly to them coming to that. And it motivates me, it gets me up in the morning and it gives me my source of energy. There’s a bit of rage in there, but there’s also a little bit of dark humor and chuckles. And so I tend to hang around as long as possible to be a pain in the ass over the legacy powers that be in terms of myself and my services.

You’re welcome to just jump on. We have a bespoke method that’s called the HVF method. And we currently long the Swiss franc against the yen at the moment and we’re pretty bearish the dollar. You could also have Swiss franc USD. We have specific setups. So we trade low volatility price behavior into big expansive moves. That’s typically how markets move. The volatility washes in and washes out like a tide. But the only difference to the tidal analogy is it dissipates slowly but it returns with a bang. So it’s more like a tsunami and then a slow retracement.

Tsunami slow retracement. So when you get the slow retracement and the almost agreement of a market, it’s usually there’s a sudden change about to take place. So you get away with tight stops and very expensive profits. And that’s the basis of high risk to reward trading asymmetric rewards to very tight risk. When you’re wrong, you eat a small loss and it’s quickly over. And when you write, you’re often in the trade for quite a long time and you get a sustained trend. And that’s what’s happening with our frank against the yen at the moment. Our gold trades have been excellent and of course gold investment long term.

We’re currently in a platinum breakout that’s done phenomenally in the precious metals. So we tend to trade setups inside a macro trend as well, so the expectation is a tailwind as well. That’s what Hunt Volatility Funnel Method does. You can find out a little bit more about that by jumping onto the YouTube channel under the Market Sniper. And we also do the same for cryptos which whilst I don’t personally love, I see them playing a long term role in our future system. They aren’t there by accident and I’ll take the money if they’re going to be offering profitable trades.

And thanks for having me on and I just say to you and your family, stay safe out there and let’s hope for a speedy end to the conflict there. Yeah. 100 yeah. Hopefully it’ll end within the next few days peacefully. Thank you so much for coming on. It was really interesting. I think I’m gonna get those glasses or at least put on clip ons on my glasses. I’m not getting the surgery. My eyes aren’t so good so. And I take cold showers every morning in the summer at least. But I don’t have a big ice machine but maybe I’ll get one.

So thanks for. Thanks for coming on and hope you stay safe in South Africa too. Things are going crazy everywhere. Pretty much. Anyway, see you soon. Thanks for having me Rafi. Bye bye for now.
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