Summary
➡ The article discusses the unpredictability of the upcoming elections, highlighting the importance of accurate forecasting and analysis. It explains how polls and betting markets can be influenced and may not always reflect the true state of the race. The author emphasizes that the election outcome is determined state by state, with only a handful of states being truly uncertain. The article also warns about potential biases in polling data, stressing the need for careful interpretation.
➡ The article discusses the current political landscape, focusing on the declining popularity of Kamala Harris. It suggests that despite her lead in national polls, Harris is losing ground in key battleground states, with Trump leading in most. The article attributes this decline not to policy issues, but to a perceived lack of experience and intelligence. It concludes that the public is becoming disillusioned with Harris, leading to a shift in the polls.
➡ The text discusses a strategic analysis of the potential outcomes of a future election. It suggests that Biden might be replaced after the primaries, and the public is aware of these behind-the-scenes plans. The text also discusses the importance of electoral votes, with states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia playing crucial roles. The author believes Trump has a clear path to victory if he secures these states, while Kamala Harris would need to secure Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The author concludes that the election is still close, but currently leans towards a Trump victory.
➡ The text discusses the political landscape in Pennsylvania and the role of poll watchers during the 2020 elections. It suggests that there were irregularities in the voting process, including poll watchers being kept at a distance due to COVID-19, and potential double-counting of votes. The text also mentions the efforts of the Republican National Committee to prevent such issues in future elections, including deploying lawyers and poll watchers. Finally, it discusses the potential outcomes of future elections, including the possibility of delayed results and legal battles.
➡ The text discusses a hypothetical scenario where a political rally in New York could influence House races, despite the candidate not likely to win the state. It also explores the complex process of the electoral system, including the role of electors, the certification of electoral votes, and potential outcomes if no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes. The text suggests that the election results could be contested, leading to a drawn-out process that might not conclude until January 6. The text ends by emphasizing the importance of staying informed about the election and its potential impact on the economy and markets.
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Transcript
And then there’s times I remember earlier this year like, well, I’ll give a prediction, but we’re eight months away. And then, well, there’s this, but we still have four months. And then there’s this. We’re finally here. We’re within one month. So we want to get an agenda just for everybody that’s on the call right now. We want to get Jim’s latest take, his latest election update. We’re going to cover that. There’s been a pretty big shift in the last week in the polls, and Jim wants to give the reasoning why. And he told me yesterday, and it’s a cliffhanger, that he said it would surprise me.
So we’re going to stay tuned for that. And then just in general, right. We’ve seen all sorts of curveballs in the election. We started off it was Trump versus Biden. You know, you’ve seen all these different things happen since then. They sort of ushered in Kamala. And we want to know, you know, is there another October surprise? Is there anything else that the Democrats, the deep state, whatever have you all these, you know, seemingly strange events, but, like, are they coordinated? I don’t know. Like, we just want to see if there’s anything else that we could be looking forward to that could cause chaos or anything around the election.
So if you’re tuning in with us from the paradigm universe, welcome. We appreciate you being here. If you’re one of Jim’s strategic intelligence readers, whether you’re new and you just joined in the last month or so or if you’ve been around a long time, Jim is the guy when it comes to the inside take on what’s happening in the election. He’s got an uncanny history and track record of making big, bold predictions, being correct. So I’m glad that we can sit down with you here, Jim, get everybody up to speed on what’s going to come in the next few weeks because the other thing I’m seeing as the publisher of Paradigm Press, it’s kind of like the wind.
It’s like we’re in a vacuum. It’s like the air has been sucked out of the room that I don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow. I don’t know what’s going to happen next week. But I’m fixed. Four weeks from now, I’m just like, that’s such a big event. Whoever wins one way or the other, there could be a big tilt. Ill let you go from here, Jim. I dont know if you want to kick it off with a general update or if you want to go into, I mean there was a big switch in the polls.
So you have at it. Get everyone at home caught up with what they need to know, whats happening with the election and where can we go from here? Thanks, Matt. By the way, I listened very carefully to your introduction, took everything you said, and the short answer is all of the above. You mentioned chaos, shift in the polls, October surprise. Well talk about all this in a lot more detail, but its kind of all the above. Take them one at a time. The first thing, I think viewers, readers know that there’s something called the October surprise.
Well then the elections, the first Tuesday in November, unless it’s the first day of the month this year, it’s November 5. So the idea of the October surprises right at the end of October, just a week or so before the election, people still, some people making up their minds, you slam the other side with some revelation. Sometimes it’s fake news that we all remember. In 2004, CB’s Dan rather came out with this thing that George Bush had. You know, George W. Bush had rigged his military service in such a way that he didn’t have to go on the Vietnam war.
That turned out to be false. They were relying on some documents that had been forged. But whatever, false, false is a big deal. But it was the classic October surprise and there are many of those. The thing I would say in response to that in terms of the 2024 election cycle, a couple of things. Number one, it’s not the October surprise anymore because the election is almost over. And so people say, wait a second, the election is November 5, that’s election day. But only about a third of americans actually go out and vote on November 5.
Two thirds of the country are either doing mail in ballots, absentee ballots, ballot harvesting, drop boxes, you name it. It goes state by state so different states have different laws, obviously, but in many states, the voting has already begun and many sources. October 11, some states open up. October 15. But the point being, a lot of the voting has already happened. A lot more is going to happen in the next couple of weeks. And so the election will be over before election day. We won’t know the results because they don’t actually count the ballots until election day.
And that’s a whole separate subject in terms of cheating and so forth. But the election is very largely over. So the October surprise is kind of obsolete. You have to think more of the September surprise, because if you’re trying to affect the outcome, you got to get it done before people vote. So that’s one thing, number one. Number two, how many more surprises do we need? I mean, just go back to the very end of June. Joe Biden was still the democratic nominee presumptive, did a total senile faceplant in his live televised debate with Donald Trump.
People, even his biggest supporters, couldn’t believe how bad it was. A lot of us who have followed Biden and knew about his cognitive decline four years ago or even longer were not surprised. But the Democrat camp followers and true believers, I guess, were surprised. But in any case, they then engineered, say, who’s they? Well, it’s Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Donna Brazile, a few others, the real hardcore democratic insiders, engineered a coup detat. And I don’t use the word, the phrase coup d’etat metaphorically. It was a coup d’etat. They took Biden, whatever you think about him. He ran in all the primaries.
He got 15 million votes between the New Hampshire primary last January and late July, early July, before the democratic convention, got 15 million votes, had all the delegates. Well, about 95% of the delegates. And they just threw them off the bus. Just threw them off the bus. And they point. They coronate. Not a point. Coronate. Kamala Harris as the nominee. She never ran in a single primary. And she ran for president twice, 2020 and again in, sorry, she ran in 2020, and now she’s the nominee in 2024. So two presidential campaigns, she was never in a single primary.
She never got a single vote. Not only did she not win, she never got a vote. She dropped out before the first primary in 2020 and was in zero primaries this year. And yet somehow she’s the nominee. So that’s a coup d’etat. And then two attempted assassinations on Donald Trump, one of which he was actually hit by a bullet. It was a miracle. And he says it’s a miracle that he’s still alive. And then the other one, he would almost certainly have been killed. People say the guy was 100 yards away. This is, this Ruth alleged assassin.
He’s been charged criminally with attempted assassination, who had a sniper’s nest on a golf course where Trump was playing. But Trump was on the fifth fairway, but heading for the green. There was a clear line of sight from the sniper’s nest to the fifth green and also the 6th green and the 7th green. So he, the sniper was going to get three chances. One of the 7th green was only 50 yards away, and the fifth green where Trump was headed was about 150 yards away. But he had a sniper rifle. It wasn’t even an AR 15, which is a pretty common gun.
It was a russian version of that. The fact it was russian is kind of interesting with a scope. And so if you have any. I’ve fired rifles like that. I mean, I have typically at 100 yards, I can hit the target very consistently. And I’m not, I don’t live on a firing range, but I do it enough. So Trump would have been killed. And this one secret Service agent saw a rifle barrel sticking out of a bush, fired. The guy got away, actually. I guess the Secret Service guy had a handgun, which is hard to hit at that range.
But my point being, Matt, is that with two assassination attempts, a face plant debate and a coup d’etat, what more do we need? I mean, we’ve had things that probably happen once every hundred years, and we’ve had four of them in the past couple of months. So I would discount the October surprise because the election’s almost over or will be soon, and we’ve had enough surprises for one lifetime. That’s number one. Number two, we talked about a shift in the polls, and here I do forecasting. So it’s kind of what we do a lot of analysis.
We do a lot of things, but forecasting is part of it. We have a very good track record, and we’re in the middle of a three part series for the September, October, November issues of strategic intelligence. The November issue will be out before the election. We call it the November issue, but customary in publishing to kind of use the month or week in advance, as the case may be. So that’ll be in subscribers inboxes in late October, maybe November 1, but certainly before the elections. That’s part three. We’ve done the first two parts, and we’ve gone from, if you had asked me in mid June, let’s say, I would say Trump’s going to win.
It’s clear. Here’s the path to victory. Here are the polls, etcetera. When they got rid of Biden, threw Biden off the bus, substituted Kamala. She had a honeymoon. There’s always a honeymoon effect. She went up in the polls. At that point, you have to take a deep breath and say, okay, it’s a new race, new candidate, new issues, etcetera. It was much closer to even. In fact, she was ahead in a lot of the polls. So we reflected that. We tell it like it is. We all have our favorites. We’re going to vote for whomever we’re going to vote for, and that’s fine.
That’s democracy in action. But if you’re an analyst and you’re writing a newsletter, your duty is to get it right, not let your personal point of view influence your analysis. It’s really hard to do, by the way, but that is what we do. And an honest call in September would have been, hey, this thing’s close. Trump has Jim, I can bring it up. I’ll share my screen. I know this is just one way to look at it. You’re a master of the polls. This is the betting market for it. But everything you just said is told in this chart, too.
The red line’s Trump. And at one point in time, you said in mid June into July, Trump was just outlandishly ahead. And then the blue line is Harris. Once they add her to the nomination and she has a decent debate, you can see all this stuff, and then the lines start getting back and forth. But I think this is where you’re getting at. And I just wanted to show this chart to the viewers at home because it really tells the story. And then all of a sudden, you get to about a week ago and Trump starts taking off.
So this is the story that you’ve been telling the whole time. And it’s amazing that everything you’re saying, you’ve been spot on, accurate, and people can see it right here in the chart. But now we’ve got the latest twist. So what do you think’s happening there? Well, first of all, that speaks for itself. The one thing I do, Matt, whether we’re talking about poll, this is a betting market. This is not a poll, by the way. It’s very rich content. The information is really valuable. But this doesn’t say that Trump is going to win 55% of the popular vote.
What it says is that there’s a 55% probability that Trump wins at least 50% of the vote. In other words, it’s 55 44 that Trump’s going to get 51 in the actual election. So that’s a little different than a poll. Poll will kind of tell you where they’re going to end up. A betting market gives a probability that somebody ends up with slightly more than half, or it could be more. But not to get too technical, but that is a difference. This is very valuable information. I think it’s good to call it up. But I always like to drop the caveats.
Here’s the thing with the betting markets, and we got to watch, keep our eye on Alex Soros, who’s the son of George Soros. I can take those numbers, Matt. I can turn them upside down with $10 million, meaning I can just place a lot of bets. Let me put it this way. I haven’t seen evidence that that’s happening, but I have seen it in the past. And I do know with enough money, you can skew those betting markets just by placing big bets because you don’t care if you lose the bet. What you care about is I want to make that chart look pretty for Kamala, but right now, and right now, it looks very, very good for Trump now.
And the polls are showing the same thing. And when I say polls, there’s always a national poll. Right now, we look at a bunch of them. But real clear politics, which is a poll of polls. What they do, they take 20 polls. Sienna, New York Times, CB’s News, Wall Street Journal, Monmouth College, et cetera, et cetera, Quinnipiac. And they take all of them and they average them and then they print that result. So it’s a poll. Polls. It’s not a bad method in a world where there are biases both ways. So let me give a hypothetical.
So if one poll is biased a little bit to Trump because of how you select the voter who’s in the poll, who are you calling? Are they Republicans or Democrats? Does that selection reflect the voting base pretty accurately or is it skewed? Have you picked more Republicans? Course you’re going to get a better result for Republicans. Same thing on the democratic side. If Democrats are 40% of the electorate, but they’re 50% of my poll respondents, I’m going to get a very favorable result for democrats because I picked more democrats in the poll. You get into all kinds of games.
Are you polling adults? Doesn’t matter. Are you polling registered voters? Doesn’t matter. Half the people don’t vote. So what does matter? Likely voters. Likely voters is a. Well, so the next thing would be registered voters, then likely voters. Likely voters. You have to filter the poll participants by. Did you vote in the last three or four elections? If the answer is yes, okay, you’re a likely voter. You’re probably going to turn out, well. Gee, I haven’t voted since I was 20 years old. Well, forget it. We don’t care about your opinion for this purpose because you don’t vote.
So a good pollster will take all that into account. You need at least 1300 participants to just statistically, that’s how many you need to get a good, pretty accurate result with small margin of error. You need to do likely voters, not registered voters. You need to have a sample that reflects the voting base, that doesn’t skew one way or the other. That’s a good poll. And there are some out there. Trafalgar is one, Rasmussen is another. John McLaughlin does the same thing. McLaughlin and associates. But the problem with McLaughlin, they are Trump’s pollsters, so they actually don’t tell you a lot of what’s going on.
That’s inside information if you want to think of it that way. But Rasmussen and Trafalgar are out there, you can find it. They have much better methodology. But here’s the point, Matt, in the real clear politics, I said if you skew both ways and you put them all in the same pot, they’ll kind of average out. Those errors will cancel out. That’s not what happens in the real world. In the real world, they’re all skewed one way. They’re all skewed in favor of the Democrats. So I think real clear politics do a good job. But if all of their components are skewed, then the result is going to be skewed.
They can’t help it. It’s just math. And so right now, Kamala is 1.8% ahead in the national poll. Now, two things to say about that. Number one, it doesn’t matter. We don’t elect presidents on a national basis. We elect them state by state by state. We may all turn out on election day, although that’s the thing of the past because people are voting right now. But the point is you have to go state by state. There are 50 states in the United States plus the District of Columbia. I can tell you what’s going to happen in about 40 of them.
We already know California is going to go for Harris. New York’s going to go for Harris. Alabama is going to go for Trump. Texas is going to go for Trump. They’re not really in doubt. There are only about ten states you get different numbers, 710, eleven, whatever, where it really is close and we can’t be certain about the outcome. We know what the states are. We’ve mentioned before. It’s Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Those are your seven swing states. And you can throw in a couple others that look close, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire if you want to get to ten.
The point is the fact that she’s 1.8% ahead in the national polls just doesn’t matter because that’s not how we do elections, number one. But here’s my point. A week ago, she was two, two percentage points ahead. And that’s been true for a while. So the fact that she’s faded from two to 1.8 in a measure that is not how we vote. But Trump has almost never been ahead in that particular measure. He won in 2016, obviously, but he was behind in that national poll that tells you that she’s fading. And then when you go to the states, the battleground states that I mentioned, and real clear politics does break those out, Trump, she’s really only winning in Wisconsin right now.
It’s pretty much, it’s tied in Michigan. She’s leading in Wisconsin, but Trump is leading in all of the other battleground states I mentioned, Arizona, Georgia. Well, moving down the list, North Carolina, most importantly, Pennsylvania. And I’ll tell you in a second why. Yeah, and I think this is the main, I think we were on this site a little while ago, but this is, I believe this is the main page and this is through real, real clear, clear polling. Similar thing. But like you’re saying, Harris is up 1.8. And again, if readers want to go in and check this out, you can just google real clear polling and go.
And then you can click through to all these battleground states and it gives you the same sort of breakdown. So you click on Pennsylvania and you can see Trump’s up there. Right. And that’s a good one, Matt, because look at, was it still there? No, we weren’t. We jumped the page. Okay. Look at Trafalgar. Okay. Trump’s ahead by three. So when we went back, if you go back to the prior page, if you can. Yeah, the main one. Okay, so RCP average, Harris ahead by 1.8. But a week ago that was two. So she’s fading. But look at Rasmussen.
I said Rasmussen is one of the more reliable ones. Trump is ahead by two. The other one I mentioned was Trafalgar. And I think that’s on the next page and showed Trump ahead by I think, yeah, that was for Pennsylvania. Right. My point is I’m not cherry picking. I’m not saying, oh, just look at the Trump good ones. Ignore the rest. What I’m saying is that the rest, I mean, give me a break. As my friend Maria Bartiromo would say, New York Times, biased for Harris, NPR, are you kidding me? Biased for Harris, etcetera. So all these, except Peresmussen and Trafalgar and McLaughlin, which is not in this group, they’re all biased for Harris.
The two that do better polling show that Trump’s ahead. And I think that is the reality. So the honeymoon’s over. She’s definitely fading. Trump is ahead in a lot of the battle of grand states, were tied in one or two. And I’ll come back to what we call the path to victory, which is, okay, yeah, we know they’re battleground states. We know that we’re heading some Trump’s ahead and some and not others. But what’s the path to victory? But I’ll come back to that in a minute. But just to kind of finish with the polls, you always ask yourself why? Or you should, okay, data is valuable, but then when you get the data, you say, well, why? What’s going on? And here, to me, this is the most interesting part, because she’s fading, but it’s not on any particular policy issue.
Look, we can list the policy issues, the border, the war in Ukraine, inflation, her economic policies, Trump’s tax policy. We can go down a long list of policy issues. But people have already digested that. They know that Trump’s going to build a wall and Kamala wants an open border. And they know that Trump’s going to cut taxes. And Kamala says, tax the rich. So we know a lot of that. People have internalized it. And that’s not what’s changing. What’s changing? And I heard this expression, I thought about it. I said, man, that’s a good one. People say that the paint is coming off.
And what that means is that Kamala Harris is always like an artificial intelligence candidate. She has no experience. I know she’s been vice president. She was attorney general of the state of California. And senator, I get that. But she has no, no serious training, no hands on executive experience. She’s kind of an empty vessel. She’s a puppet for the same people who threw Joe Biden off the bus. And we know who they are. It’s Obama, Michelle, Vanessa Pelosi, maybe Chuck Schumer a little bit, Donna Brazile, the real Alex Soros George Soros, the real power brokers behind the Democratic Party.
She’s a puppet. She’ll do exactly what they tell her she doesn’t have. I was actually doing another interview, and I got in a debate about this. I said, kamala Harris is a dunce. And I was using dunce in a very historic, academic sense. It wasn’t just name calling. It actually means you’re not that bright. And the person I was doing the interview with said, come on, Jim, we can’t be involved in name calling here. We got to deal with substance and all that. I said, fine. You want some substance? I told him how to beat Russia in the war in Ukraine in a way that no one had thought of.
But that’s the furthest thing that Kamala Harris is capable of. She’s doing the opposite. The next time I did an interview with the same person, he starts saying, she’s stupid. I didn’t use the word stupid. She kind of is. But my point is, she tried to do the basement strategy. She tried to do the Joe Biden thing. Remember Joe Biden sitting in his basement in Wilmington, Delaware, never coming out, never giving a speech, etcetera. They tried to run that playbook. It wasn’t working. The american people was like, no, inflation is too high. Too many wars, too many riots in 2020, too much going on, no job hiring.
Said, we want to hear what you have to say. We’re not buying into this basement strategy. We got fooled once. We’re not getting fooled again. So then her handler said, all right, we better put her out on some interviews. They send her to all these really friendly venues. Howard Stern, 60 minutes, the View, some podcast, call her daddy, whatever. It’s mostly about sex. These are the friendliest interviews you’re ever going to get, or she’s ever going to get. And she blew it. She blew every single one. They use the phrase word. So she says things. They’re platitudes, they’re cliches, they’re repetitive.
And you listen to her answer, and you say, what did she say? What was that? You don’t have the answer, and you realize it very quickly. That’s what’s happening. To say, we can’t do the basement strategy. We put her out there. And they did put her out there, but when they did, the entire american public could see that she was, as I said, done something, just not smart. And it’s like, oh, wait a second. We got war’s inflation, unemployment’s going up, job hiring has hit a wall. The economy’s going to recession. The global economy’s going to recession.
And we’ve got a bird brain. And so that’s why she’s fading in the poll mat. It’s not because people have suddenly changed their position on the border or anything else. People have the opinions they have and they’re not going to change their opinions and Harris and Trump are not going to change their policies. So that’s locked in. So you say, what did it change? American people took a look and they don’t like what they say. Yeah. And the thing that I’ll say, I mean, you’ve been on this, we’ve been talking about Biden for years or whatever, but at some point in time, you started calling him like a senile husk.
And I remember hearing that. I’m like, we need to search our archives and see when you started saying that. But the thing is, at first someone might say, like, oh, that’s, why would someone say that? It’s kind of, it was a very well thought out, like, and it’s exactly what was happening. He was just this shell of a person that was senile and no one was calling it out. So when you say things like calling Kamala Dunce, I agree with you. I just want to make sure everyone at home knows these aren’t, we’re not name calling.
This is very well thought out. Jim is very well connected and these are very important things. And starting, I like that concept. The paint’s starting to come out off and that is what’s shifting these poles. You know, people are starting to say, you know, I don’t think I see myself voting for her. That’s exactly, she’s a made up candidate. She’s an avatar. She’s, you know, candidate Barbie, whatever you want to call her. There’s no, they’re there and now people see it. And that’s the point. And by the way, Matt, to your point, yeah, we do use some pretty tough names, but we’re being descriptive, not pejorative.
But we also, out of that, we get some very good analysis. For example, we said in the October issue of strategic intelligence, October 2023, which came out late September, that’s when it was in people’s inboxes. We said they’re going to get rid of Biden. We said that at this point, it’s over a year ago. And it was very specific. I want to make sure that the viewers at home, and again, a lot of people want to call. I think we’ve got 3000 people on the call right now. A lot of people are long term readers, they know this.
But if anyone knew this wasn’t just throwing it out there. You were saying it’s going to happen after the primaries because Biden’s going to get all the votes. And then in between then and the Democratic National Convention in August, they’re going to switch him out and switch someone else in. And that’s exactly what the deep state, the Democrats that have these plans and they’re trying to puppet master are doing. And the good part is, fingers crossed, the american public is not putting up with it. They know what’s happening behind the scenes. They’re like, what happened to Biden, who was near him, letting him do all this stuff, and he’s still our president.
That’s not very respectable. So I think that’s true. You’re right. The american public sees through it. But our strategic intelligence readers had this on their inboxes ten months ago. Yeah, exactly. Okay, so where do you want to go from here? Because it seems that the reality is coming out. Trumps starting to move in a very positive direction in the polls. What do you see here? Whats the latest update? Do you see this becoming. Go ahead. Yeah, I was just saying, lets take everything we said about the polls with all the caveats, dont have to repeat them.
Lets take that information and convert it into whats called the path to victory. What is the path to victory? You need 270 electoral votes to be the next president. And state by state, Pennsylvania has 19. I live in New Hampshire. We have four. We only get four votes. I think Delaware gets three, maybe. But California, Donna, the exact number in front of me, I think it’s closer to 50. When you give California and New York to the Democrats, and that is what’s going to happen. They started out with like, it’s about a 75 or 80 vote electoral college advantage when you only need 270.
If you’re trying to get to 270 and you got 80, for openers, you’re off to a pretty good start. But Trump has big states also, Texas and Florida being the two biggest. So you just sort of go state by state. How do you get to 270? Here’s what Trump and there are multiple ways to do it. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle. You can move the pieces around a little bit, but Trump’s path is pretty straightforward. He needs all the states he took in 2020 and he should get all of them. There’s no state that Trump took in 2020 that he’s not going to take again.
But he didn’t win in 2020. So what else does he need, he needs to flip to Arizona and Georgia. Right now. He’s ahead in both. And he’s ahead in the real clear politics, battleground state averages. We showed that earlier. But if you take Trafalgar, which is a much better polling methodology, and again, you can look this stuff up, go to Trafalgar group, click on the website. They don’t have every state every week, but you can get the latest polls. And they show Trump with a very substantial lead in the two states I mentioned, which are Georgia.
You’ve got one point there and then Arizona on Trafalgar. It’s not shown on Arizona, but it was shown on Georgia. Yeah. Right. So that’s the point that the polls that are more reliable, and I would put Rasmussen and Trafalgar in this category. But even the averages, even the real clear politics averages we’re looking at right now, if you pick those particular states, Trump’s ahead in Arizona and Georgia. So he needs those two. He’s got to flip them over to his column. Then if he gets that, all he has to do is take Pennsylvania. And this election, I promise you, election night, you’re watching tv, it’s going to be Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.
Here we’re looking at, we’re looking at Pennsylvania. This is real clear politics. So it includes a lot of these democrats, skewed polls. Trump’s ahead four tenths of 1%. But if you go down to Trafalgar, he’s up by three. I can tell you Trafalgar is more accurate. That’s a little bit closer to where, where Trump actually is. So again, if he flips Arizona and Georgia and takes Pennsylvania, he wins. Now, he may do better than that. I think he will do better than that. But that’s all he needs. Now, what is Kamala Harris path to victory? Well, she’s, well, first of all, the opposite, which is she’s got to somehow hold Arizona or Georgia and take Pennsylvania.
That would put her over the top. But if you assume that she’s not going to get Arizona and Georgia, then what combination does work for her? The answer is the blue wall. What is the blue wall? It’s Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She’d have to run the table. Trump, and this is the difference. If Trump gets Georgia in Arizona, Kamala has, and Kamala gets all her other states that Biden had in 2020, she has to run the table. She has to take Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump only has to take Pennsylvania. Again, if he gets Arizona and Georgia, he only has to take Pennsylvania.
I’m not saying he will lose in Michigan and Wisconsin, but Trump could lose in Michigan and Wisconsin. He could lose both of those and still win the election. If he takes Pennsylvania again, I punish an election night. You’re going to be hearing Pennsylvania until it comes out your ears. But the whole election kind of comes down to that. Are there other paths to victory? What if Trump loses Pennsylvania? He could still win if he picks up Nevada and Virginia. Now, Paris has a decent lead in Virginia. But again, you have to make allowance for all the skews in the polling that I talked about earlier.
Glenn Youngkins, the governor, very popular, Trump is campaigning in Virginia. So if Trump took again, if he takes Arizona and Georgia and takes Nevada and Virginia, he could actually lose Pennsylvania and still win. I think he’s going to get Pennsylvania. But by the way, there’s another scenario, Matt, which is Trump gets everything we talked about, Arizona, Georgia, all the 2020 states, Nevada, Virginia and Pennsylvania. And maybe throw in Michigan because the auto workers in, I don’t know, maybe give them New Hampshire, Minnesota. That would be an electoral college landslide. At that point, he’d be up to like 320 electoral votes.
Not quite. Ronald Reagan in 1984, by the way, one of the greatest landslides in american history was Richard Nixon in 1972. Nixon was forced out of office by the deep state a couple of years later, not even a year and a half. So we’re not quite at that level. But you get into the 300s in electoral votes, you’re doing extremely well. That could happen. But my point is it doesn’t have to happen. All Trump needs is Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. He wins. She’s got to get Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania run the table. In other words, in order for her to win, so it’s still close.
I don’t want to pretend this is over. Trump’s odds of winning right now are not as good as they were after the first debate on June 27. June 27, I would have said it’s all Trump. It’s his to lose. And of course, we went through that chronology, assassinations and coup d’etat, etcetera, and that made it close in August and through most of September. But right now, Trump’s back ahead has a path to victory, which we described. But every day counts, and it is still close. And so if you ask me to call right now, and again, we’ll be in touch with the readers at the end of October for the final, final call.
You can hold me to that. But right now, I would say Trump wins, but it is very close. Yeah. What’s your take now that we’re getting pretty close to the election, what’s your take on the possibility that the result is actually announced that night or relatively soon, the morning after? Is that because I think most Americans are just buckling. They’re battening down the hatches. They’re like, man, this is going to take a while. There’s going to be recounts, all that stuff. Do you think it’s possible there could be a winner that night and everything? Things simpler than we all think? If there is, it’s because the Trump scenario was more in that 300 vote range.
Even if they’re still counting ballots in Pennsylvania, if he picks up Michigan and Nevada and Virginia, for example, Trump wins. It’s not close at that point, but let’s take the perhaps more likely scenario, which is the one we’ve been talking about, where it all comes down to Pennsylvania. When you talk about Pennsylvania, you’re really talking about Philadelphia, because we’re all Pennsylvania. I’m not born in Pennsylvania. I know the state very well. I mean, it’s all you get. Outside of Philly, you’d be hard pressed to find a Harris sign. It’s all lawn signs, local rallies, local demonstrations, all Trump, Trump, Trump.
But it’s thinly populated and most people live in Philadelphia. And that is a Democrat political machine. Now in 2020, remember, it was the middle of COVID and everyone was wearing masks. I mean, they don’t work, but okay, everyone had masks. But you have what are called poll watchers. And I’ve been a poll watcher back in the day, and you represent a party or a Republican or a Democrat. That’s okay. Everything’s very upfront. But you’re allowed to come in to the polling place and watch the election officials count the ballots and kind of look over their shoulder a little bit and make sure they’re doing it right.
They’re not, you know, the games kind of go on and on. What you do in most states, and I know my state, they give you a ballot and a pencil and you fill in a little circle. It’s like taking an SAT test back in the day. And they run into a scanner, and it’s technically, a scanner will count the vote correctly, etcetera. But what if I had a pile of 500 Harris votes in Biden last time, but Harris votes, and I run them through the scanner, and I run them through again, and I run them through again and so forth.
That’s some of what they did. It wasn’t the only dirty trick. But that’s some of what happened in 2020. Well, how do you prevent that from happening? Well, one way is the poll watcher who kind of goes in and keeps an eye on these people. Well, what they did in 2020 is they kicked the poll watchers out. They said, oh, Covid, we don’t want to get the virus, you people have to leave. Or they told them they had to stay 10ft away. Remember that six foot social distancing thing, by the way? That was like a 19th century german doctor who later said, I got it wrong.
I mean, the six foot thing was a joke. It never had any medical airborne virus will go 100ft. But they used the six foot thing, which was completely invented, made up to keep the pole watchers like 10ft away, so they couldn’t actually look at what the boat counters were doing. And then they kicked them all out before midnight and they stayed up till 03:00 a.m. you know, opening trunks full of Biden ballots that they had hidden away. So there’ll be a lot less of that this time around. I’m not saying the Democrats won’t try, but Lara Trump, who is, she’s married to Eric Trump, so she’s not like Trump genetics, but she’s in the family.
But it seems like a really smart lady. She’s the deputy head of the RNC, Republican National Committee. They’ve got 5500 lawyers standing by coast to coast ready to file lawsuits. They’re not going to wait until bad results come out. They see one false move, they’re filing lawsuits. Now as we speak. There are lawsuits going on. They’ve got an army of poll watchers, they’ve got just a lot more eyes and ears. They’re doing a better job of the Democrats. Ballot harvest, we’ll ballot harvest. We’ll go to the nursing homes and assist the living facilities and go door to door and gather up 100 ballots and people who might have trouble getting to the polls and we’ll dump them in a Dropbox.
We’ll do that too. So the Republicans are doing a much better job in all this respect. Having said that, my expectation is that we will not have results from Pennsylvania on election night. So now we’re going to get into the morning of Wednesday, November 6. Now you’re going to start to see the lawsuits flying. Maybe it’s not just Pennsylvania, by the way, the most corrupt county in America when it comes to cheating. I mean, I’m not talking about bribery, normal corruption, but the voting corruption is Maricopa County, Arizona. And I say county, but that’s Phoenix. Phoenix and Scottsdale.
Which is, again, is a population most. You know, Arizona is a beautiful state. I’ve been all over Arizona, from Sedona to Tucson, but most of it’s empty. It’s pretty because it’s a desert. But people live in Phoenix and that county voting commissioner and the committee, totally corrupt. And you got to keep an eye on that as well. So this is going to be a battle between poll watchers and lawyers and hopefully some of the media, at least on the one hand, and corrupt officials on the other. And if it comes down to, I said, Trump has to flip Arizona.
So if you can deny Arizona to Trump, that complicates his path to victory. Now, you do have to pick up maybe Nevada and Virginia, by the way, for our listeners and our readers, if you go to real clear politics and just mess around with the website, there are a couple of widgets, but you can do the electromagnet and click on that. They have one I like. It’s called no toss ups. It’s like right now. Yeah, there’s toss up states. We don’t know how they’re going to go. They’re very close. But if you had to pick one based on polls, they’ll give you a no toss up map.
But it’s interactive so you can say, well, gee, what happens if I switch Arizona to Democrat or what happens if I switched Michigan to Republican, et cetera. It’s kind of fun. I guess if you’re a geek like me, it’s fun. But people want to play with those outcomes and create their own paths to victory. It’s kind of interesting. There’s the map and you can see the gray ones. Those are too close to call. And that’s pretty fair. It’s good. You see, Arizona and Georgia are on that list, but even Minnesota is kind of considered up in the air.
Nevada, Pennsylvania, big 119 votes right there. But for example, you can say, well, let’s give Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris because they’re so corrupt in Philadelphia. Okay, but then you can say, well, what, but, yeah, but what happens if I give Minnesota and Wisconsin to Trump? Well, you see, Minnesota and Wisconsin are 25 votes. Pennsylvania is 19. So you lose 19, but you pick up 25, you win. So that’s, if you want to do scenario analysis, this is what I do. But this is, it’s kind of fun for everybody. This is the map to use and you can, you can flip those states any way you like.
Well, there’s a way to create your own map. And so anyway, it’s one way to think about it maybe have this open on your laptop on election night and do a little forecasting of your own. But this illustrates the path to victory. Path, meaning what combination of states does Trump need or does Kamala Harris need to get to 270? That’s the question. And there are a multiple combinations. You’re back to 7th grade permutations, at least where I went to school. We did the 7th grade. I don’t know what they do today, but it’s kind of a fun thing.
But Trump has the easier path to victory because his must do is only Pennsylvania, whereas Harris must do is Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And then from there, you can just get into some alternative scenarios. So right now, I’ve got as a Trump victory. And also, Matt, when we get to the November issue of strategic intelligence, which I mentioned will be in inboxes in late October, November 1, maybe at the latest, we’re going to spend more time on the Senate and House races because they, right now, the Republicans are in pretty good shape to take the Senate.
So say goodbye to Mitch McConnell and the uniparty and look for a new majority leader, maybe Rick Scott, who’s a little more of a maga type guy. We’ll see how that goes. But the Republicans are in good shape there. The House is fascinating because I think our readers know that the Republicans control the House. But I’ll put the word control in quotation marks. It’s only like a four or five vote margin, depending on whether the vacancy or somebody dies or somebody doesn’t show up for work. It’s literally like three, four votes differentiating. And there’s always some rhinos who are running off the reservation, so to speak.
The Republicans would like to pad that lead, get 1520 vote margin, maybe so you could lose some votes and still carry the House, still push through your agenda. That is not a foregone conclusion. There were about ten seats that were Democrat in 2020 that the Republicans flipped in 2022. And they were in New York, believe it or not, not in Manhattan, but kind of Gloversville and upstate New York, around the least definite country and around Orange County, California, which is traditionally republican but had gone Democrat in recent elections. So the Republicans got this back. The Democrats are trying desperately to flip those seats back to the democratic column.
And by the way, this is one reason Trump’s campaigning in New York. He just ran a Madison Square garden. They’re going to have a big rally at Madison Square Garden. And people are like, what are they thinking? They’re not going to win New York? Well, they’re not going to win New York. But here’s the thinking behind the strategy. Number one, it shows enormous confidence. Hey, he’s gone to New York. Well, he must be doing pretty well everywhere else. They’ll be spending time in New York. It forces Kamala to play a little defense there. Number two, it really, it has as much to do with the House races because there are seats on Long island and seats in Duchess county and Orange county, upstate New York, a little bit that the Republicans would love to hold.
Now, what happens if they don’t? What happens if the Democrats take the House, which they could? We’ll have more refined prediction in a few weeks. But right now, you just absolutely can’t rule that out. If the Democrats take the House, when we had the election on November 5, we just got done saying, might not finish counting votes until November 7 or November 8, we’ll see. Maybe some lawsuits come out of that in early December. On December 8, in the state capitals from coast to coast, they pick their electors. Are you sending Trump electors or are you sending Kamala Harris electors? I say electors.
These are the people who actually cast electoral votes. We showed the map with the electoral votes. Those are numbers, but there are real people behind those numbers. I mean, not to get too geeky, but when you vote, you’re actually not voting for Trump or Harris. You’re voting for a slate of electors who are going to go to their state capitals, Concord, new Hampshire, Albany, New York, or Annapolis, Maryland, and vote for the president. Well, those votes are tabulated, but then they send them to Washington for a final certification. And everyone was like, hey, you can do this in minutes.
Why does it take two and a half months? Well, the answer is this started in 1789. And so you went by horseback or carriage or whatever. Actually, roads were muddy, weather was bad. It actually took time to do this. It doesn’t take time now, but the law is still the law. You end up on January 6, 2025. We’ve heard so much about January 6, 2020, sorry, 2021, and the riots and the Capitol and all that. Well, flash forward January 6, 2025, next January. That’s when these electoral votes are certified by the Senate and the House of Representatives.
If the Democrats take the House of Representatives, which they might, I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but it’s a strong possibility they’re going to pass a resolution that declares Trump to be an insurrectionist under section three of the 14th Amendment. When they do that, technically, if you read section three face value, Trump’s electors would be disqualified because section three says you cannot hold federal office if you’re an insurrectionist. It says that. And if the Congress declares him to be an insurrectionist, then he can’t hold federal office. That means his electoral votes would be disqualified in that world.
So Trump now has all his votes disqualified. Kamala doesn’t have 270. I’m assuming Trump got over 270. But you disqualify them. By definition, she doesn’t have 270, because if Trump did, she can’t have. It doesn’t add up. So now no one has 270. What happens? You throw the election to the House of Representatives, what happens then? Well, you vote to pick a president, but the constitution, now, this is the 12th Amendment, says you can only vote for one of whoever it is who got sort of the top three electoral vote candidates are the only ones you can vote for.
You can pick one among the three. Doesn’t have to be the number one vote getter, but it has to be one of the top three electoral vote getters. Well, in the scenario I’m describing, there’s only one, which is Harris. If you disqualify Trump, Harris is the only other person who’s going to win a state. RFK, nobody’s going to get a state. There’s no George Wallace around this time. So even republicans would be forced to vote for Kamala Harris because the 12th amendment says you can only vote for the top three. While there are no top three, there’s only one.
So does Kamala Harris become president in that scenario? Well, here’s. Well, keep reading. The 12th amendment. It says, everything I just said only applies if there’s a quorum. If the Republicans are smart. You can never count on Republicans to be smart, by the way. But if they are smart, they’ll go out in the snow and stand on the mall and not be on the floor of the House. And there’s no quorum. So now you can’t even have a vote because there’s no quorum. Well, then what happens? They thought of this in 1804. The 12th amendment says, in the event there is no quorum, the vice president becomes acting president.
So JD Vance could be president on January 5. So I hate to use cliches, but stay tuned. So, to your question, your question, Matt, was, is the election going to be over on November 5? It might not be over until January 6. And even then, we might end up with JD Vance as the acting president. So there’s plenty of. Plenty of drama still to come. Wow. Well, we didn’t say it on the beginning of the call, but, Jim, I know this you’ve got to run because you’re going to abandon. I think you’re heading on now, so I might do, we’ve got a bunch of people still on the call, so I might do a conclusion here if you’ve got a run.
Any last words other than that’s a great cliffhanger, there is a lot more to come. I’ve got a lot of questions that came in that I just want to ask or answer from the big publishing side, but any last words, Jim? Otherwise, if anyone wants to follow you over war room, I think it’s just War room.org dot that’s free as well. And Jim’s going to be talking there. Yeah, that’s on Rumble. War room.org on rumble. I’m going to hop over to that broadcast right now, but I’ll quote Yogi Berra, it ain’t over till it’s over. So we’ll do the best forecasting.
We can. Look forward to the November strategic intelligence coming out the end of the month, but we’ll bring you up to date then. But it’s not going to be over soon. Awesome. All right, Jim, we’ll let you head out of here. Good luck. Over on the war room. I’m going to stay on real quick and Jim, you can hop off. I’m going to stay on. We’ve got a lot of people on the call. We had a lot of questions coming. I just want to make sure if you’re on the call right now, there’s a question box right below the video screen that’s, I’ve got a website that just lists all those questions.
So this is really a great time. We had a big, big show up rate for this call. This is a great time. If you’ve got any questions for anything we’re doing at strategic intelligence with Jim, with election coverage, with where the markets are heading, with some of the questions that were coming in, what’s this mean for the dollar? Should I dump my stocks? What is immigration or illegal immigrants? What is that going to have to do with the election? Can that end up swaying the vote? Lots of good questions coming in, but go ahead and add your question in there just because this is a live wire where I can see everything coming in and over the next few hours, days and weeks, well be able to get back to a bunch of these questions for everyone at home.
So its a really, really good time and informative time, especially with someone like Jim. We can pose all these questions to him. He can answer them in his weekly updates. We can get him back on a Zoom call. Because in between the next few weeks as we lead up to the election, we’ve got a lot of different things that can happen and we all know it. You feel it? I feel it. Main street feels it. Wall street feels it. There could be a big switch, a big change in the market, change in the economy, depending on who wins and loses in this election.
So I know we’ve got Jim set up for later in the month where we’re going to do some election broadcasts, where we’re going to get real close to the election and say, hey, over the time, I won’t put any words in Jim’s mouth. You know, the last year as we’ve been talking predictions, he’s been pretty solid in the Trump camp. It seems like he’s still in that same way. But we want to get the last, you know, sort of, you know, if, if Trump wins, how do you see it playing out and what should you do? Um, because a lot of the things that we do at strategic intelligence we’re looking out for, you know, we want you at home, the readers, to have insight and valuable market insight and valuable economic insight, just so you know what to do either with your family or with your money, just to protect yourselves or grow your wealth.
So go ahead, add some questions in comments. Are we doing anything good, bad, otherwise that paradigm, I’m the publisher here. I’m Jim’s publisher. We’ve got a lot of things moving, but it’s always great to hear from you and we’re going to be working very hard almost around the clock. I mean, this is all I do, paying attention to what Jim’s saying, paying attention to the things that are publishing here at paradigm, just to make sure we’re doing right by you at home, the viewers and the readers of all of our publications. Ill end it there. Go ahead, add your questions in.
If youre seeing this could be a replay on YouTube, give us a like subscribe to our channel because like I said, next few weeks and months, as Jim said, big cliffhangers here. Its not over till its over. And weve got a lot of moving parts that could sway markets and where the economy is heading for 2025 and beyond. So thank you so much for tuning in. Well see you next time. Make sure you’re paying attention to paradigm press and everything at strategic intelligence. Thanks.
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