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Summary
Transcript
Is this your homework, Larry? Ask him about the car, man. Is this yours, Larry? Is this your homework, Larry? Is that your car out front? Is this your homework, Larry? Have you ever watched pornographic videos? No. Hey guys, Rafi here from The Endgame Investor and there’s just so much going on right now that I need to make a report today. It’s just unbearable. I need to do it. Whereas I usually have control over my urges, in this case, I just don’t. And so what I wanted to talk about today is the fact that the Treasury has no idea what the Fed is going to do and it’s interrogating the primary dealers in the Treasury market.
Those are the banks that buy Treasuries as market makers to distribute them off of the auctions. They don’t know when QT is going to end. They don’t know what the bank think is going to happen when it does. And they’re getting all nervous and they’re asking the banks what they think and giving them questionnaires. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has frozen all federal loans and grants except for Medicare and Social Security, which those I would call extraordinary accounting measures. We’ll see how long they last and how it affects government spending in the weeks ahead.
I’m not going to cover everything important that’s going on right now in this video. You should check out the Endgame Investor on Substack where I go into the eligible and registered supplies flowing into the COMEX specifically by Brinks and how new records are being set. Brinks has imported more gold in the last month than it had all during the entire crisis of March, April, May 2020 during the lockdowns. Something big is going on and I don’t think it’s just tariffs, but check it out at the Endgame Investor on Substack link in the description below.
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And be sure to check out my Patreon at patreon.com slash endgameinvestor, link in the description below where the next topic we’re going to cover is interest rates, bond trading and options trading in biblical law. Yes, it exists and I’ll show you exactly how and where. Check out the Patreon for as little as $3 a month and support the Endgame Investor. Keeping an eye on 10-year yields, we have a trendline touch last week at about 4.5 something. We see that the upward trendline since September is still intact. I think it’s going to remain intact because we have higher highs as of 2025 from the high of April 2024.
The trendline around where the 50-week moving average is at around 4.47. Expect yields to continue higher once that trendline is touch or maybe marginally broken. The tech bubble and the crypto bubble are integrally related because a lot of traders use profits from their NVDA and Nvidia positions to buy more Bitcoin and the two bubbles kind of feed in on each other, on themselves. We have here what looks to be a break in the bubble-ish trendline of Nvidia from 2020. That began in 2024. This is really a parabolic move and I’ll show you that in the next chart.
We have a break in the trendline to about $116. The stock has rebounded a little bit since yesterday and that deep-seag Chinese, whatever it is, everybody seems to be talking about it like they’ve known it was coming for many decades, like they all know what AI is and they all know this is really normal and regular and of course China’s going to beat them and everyone’s pretending that they know exactly what this industry is. And the truth is that these are all bubbles that look to be fraying now and they will all collapse, including the AI bubble as well.
It’s all fueled by inflation, which is coming to an end. The perspective on the Nvidia bubble is this. We see that the major move began at the beginning of 2024 and it has continued since and it looks like it is breaking now. This is where we were yesterday at $116.42, well below the trendline but we still have the 50-week moving average to break through so it might not collapse just yet but the momentum is gone. Now, in terms of what the Treasury is asking primary dealers, which I talked about in the introduction, the Treasury has sent primary dealers out this questionnaire, this is the key question, and it shows that the Treasury really has no idea what the Fed is going to do and it’s very nervous as to what the monetary situation is going to be in the weeks and months ahead.
This is the question, I’m going to read it word for word. Word for word. Please provide your views regarding potential changes to the size and competition of the Federal Reserve’s SOMA portfolio, which means it’s balance sheet. We know that this is your homework. You’re going to cut your dick off, Larry. You’re killing your father, Larry. When do you expect the Federal Reserve to cease redemptions of Treasury securities from the SOMA portfolio? In other words, when do you expect UT or quantitative tightening to stop? Is this your homework, Larry? Is that your car out front? Is this your homework, Larry? Do you expect the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing Treasury securities with proceeds from principal payments received in its MBS holdings? Meaning, do you expect the Fed to begin to roll over earnings into other securities or just let them expire? You’re entering a world of pain, son.
We know that this is your homework. And next question, if so, when would such purchases begin? You’re going to fry. When do you expect the Federal Reserve to begin open market operations to go the size of its balance sheet in order to maintain ample reserve balances? Have you ever watched pornographic videos? No. That next part of the question really means when do you think QE is going to start after QT ends? So you have QT, which is the shrinking of the holdings and then you have something in between where they don’t buy any more holdings, but they reinvest the proceeds from old holdings to purchase new ones.
And then finally, you have QE where they buy Treasuries outright. And notice here that the question is when do you expect QE to start, not if. Finally, what Treasury security tenders do you expect the Federal Reserve to purchase and why? When it starts QE again, what kind of Treasuries is it going to buy? Is it going to buy 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year? Is it going to make a new one like 100-year and buy that? Who knows? What, if any, concerns do you have about money market functioning during such changes to the Federal Reserve balance sheet? Basically, if we’re going to put this all in one sentence, what the hell do you think is going on with the Federal Reserve and can you help us out here, please? Let’s continue.
We’re going to talk now about Japan and the serious inflation problems that are going on there that are not being reported in the mainstream media or pretty much anywhere else, but they’re getting out of control right now. Well, before we get to that, we have the Bitcoin to gold chart. Still, no breakout for Bitcoin versus gold and the potential triple top here. We’ve had a little few marginal breakouts, daily breakouts, but none have surpassed in the weekly charts yet. We’ll see how this goes. Bitcoin is running out of time to break through the triple top.
I’m not sure if it will. Next, Japan hikes, which will worsen inflation. As you may have heard, the Bank of Japan has hiked interest rates to, I think, 25 basis points or something like that. And why this will worsen consumer prices and make them higher is because most of the yen is already backed by Japanese government bonds. It’s been this way since 2013. They are totally hooked on inflation to the point that once they stop, the currency will actually weaken rather than strengthen because the entire currency is backed by debt now.
When they cut the price of that debt, it’s the currency’s purchasing power itself that worsens and consumer prices go higher. So we see here that they have done this and still the inflation rate or the rate that consumer prices are rising is about 3.6% right now. This is a zoom in, but we’re going to see that this is a serious marker. If we go here, this is the month over month rate, and I put a red line where we are now. The only times when the month over month rate, which is now 0.6% in Japanese consumer prices, when the only times that that was overtaken since the Asian financial crisis of 1997 was during COVID, the peak of COVID, when it was I think 0.7 or 0.8 or something like that.
One time during 2014, I don’t know exactly what that was. I think it might have to do with the Chinese yuan or something and also the peak of the 2008 great financial crisis and the inflationary phase of it before the crash and during the Asian financial crisis itself. This is a serious read in Japanese consumer price inflation. 0.6 is very rarely that high. Only three times since COVID has it ever been that high month to month, Japan is spiraling out of control, particularly the yen. But if we break it down, we can see here that Japan food inflation is the highest since 1981.
I think this is 6.6% or 6.3%. I forgot what the exact number is, but you can see here the black line. The only time since the 1970s that this was overtaken in the pre-COVID era was in 1980. This is a serious threat to the yen and it is going to lead to its demise. Food inflation is the most felt by the average Japanese, by the average person, because everybody needs food or they’re going to die. Japan goods inflation, we can also see the goods inflation is I think 5.3% is the number.
The only time pre-COVID that was ever overtaken was in that 2014 spike, which again, I think had something to do with the Chinese yuan. It hasn’t been overtaken since 1981 prior to that. And before that, there was the 1970s global inflation. That is why Japan is hiking rates, but the hiking of rates in Japan is not going to help the yen. It is going to hurt the yen because almost all of the yen, I think 98% of it is backed by that very debt. And by raising interest rates, they lower the value of that debt, therefore lowering the value of the yuan.
It is true that at the beginning of an inflationary process, raising interest rates helps the currency by getting it a little bit off of the drug supply. But once you get hooked on the drugs long enough, you cannot function without them. Talk to any junkie, any cokehead, any narcotics addict without their supply of drugs. They cannot function in a basic sense. This is the situation with the yuan. It is so hooked on inflationary drugs that if you take them away, it’s going to hurt its purchasing power, not help it. Mark my words, the yen is going to die.
And since the yen is a major domino in the global monetary pyramid, once the yen goes, the endgame will follow soon after. Thank you. [tr:trw].
See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.
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