Is This The Start of a Global Market Meltdown? | Mark Moss

When people say we need something to break, well, we had it. I mean, Japan’s sudden rate hike broke a lot of things, including stock trading platforms that completely shut down and stopped working. It broke prices. We saw circuit breakers in Japan and the United States being triggered and it seems to have broken people’s view on their assets, on their asset prices and their investments. But is all this really warranted? And more importantly, are the markets really melting down or, you know, was this just a warning sign before the big crash like all the headlines are telling us right now? Or is this a magic setup that’s going to blast our assets off into next year? Now, in this video, I’m going to break down these exact questions to see if it’s time for us to, you know, pack it all up and go home while this all shakes out.

Or do we buy the dip? Are you ready for that? Well, let’s go now real quick, if you’re new to the channel, my name is Mark Mawson. I’ve been investing through multiple massive market crashes. I invested through the 2000 dot crashed, the 2008 great financial crash, the 2020 pandemic crash, and, well, I’ve taken my fair share of lickings along the way. Of course, I’ve had to pay my dues when I was younger and I was less experienced, but now I look at these crashes as opportunities. So let’s just see what we have here. All right. So is the market melting down? Well, that’s what all the mainstream headlines would have you say.

And now everybody’s wondering what the heck is going on. Well, what are we talking about? Well, recession is here. Now, you hear a lot about recession, recession, recession. A lot of my friends, a lot of my friends that you see on YouTube, a lot of people that I consider peers continually pound the table on recession. And of course, no reason to deny that we see lots of indicators that show the recession, or I should say the economy is getting weak. We had a weak unemployment number. We had some weak ism business data. We saw these types of things.

We saw, of course, all the tv and mainstream YouTube economists coming out and telling us that it’s all coming down. Of course, Harry Denne crashes in over markets are going to wash out 94%. That was a day ago, 94%. He said that six months ago. He said that one year ago, two years ago, three years ago, twelve years ago, and yet we’ve yet to see it. Stock market crash is going to come. Emergency rate cuts are incoming. The global stock market crashed. Everyone’s telling us that. So, you know, we have the bad economic data, which means recession.

We have all the mainstream economists telling us this. We have this, what’s called the Sam rule. And this indicator always tells us right before a recession comes, we have all these things. Now, I’m here to tell you, and as I’ve been telling you now for about two years, the recession is talking about the economy. The economy and the markets are two different things. Now, we can talk about the recession all day, and certainly some businesses will be affected by that. But the economy and the market are two different things. So keep those two things separate as we go down through this.

But I do want to show you just how quickly things change. And it’s very careful, or you need to be very careful of who you’re paying attention to. Are people moving off of gut like feeling, emotion or off of logic? Now this right here is the sentiment index of paid newsletter writers. Now, I do have a paid newsletter. I don’t fall into this. Now. This is paid newsletters, writers. And basically what this telling us is that this is bullish and this is bearish. And what we saw in the last week is the largest sentiment shift of newsletter writers going, oh, everything’s great.

Market’s going to the moon to, oh, my God, the whole world is going to end, sell everything and run away. We saw, this is the lowest reading, the fastest reading it’s been since the 1987 panic. Here we have the 1980 panic. What happened? Did we really get that bad in two weeks? Or is everybody moving along like the herd? Are they all moving off of emotion and not logic? Well, let’s break down some data so you don’t get caught up in the emotional trap. Okay, so really the question that I’m asking myself, and you’re probably asking yourself is, is this the meltdown? Is it time to sell everything I own, go to cash and go hunker down in the basement somewhere? Or is this the magic setup for us to make a lot of money? We’re gonna look at it from a data standpoint.

Now, a couple things we have to understand. We are in a debt based monetary system. If you watch my channel on a regular basis, you know a lot of this stuff, but it’s good to hear it again. If you don’t watch my channel on a regular basis, hit that subscribe button while you’re at it so you don’t miss these videos. Okay, so the world needs liquidity. Why? In a debt based monetary system, the debt has to continue to expand. The debt never gets paid. The debt only gets refinanced now we need new debt to roll over the old debt.

Okay? So the world needs that liquidity, that more money in order to keep that debt rolling over and over and over. Okay, we understand that. Now, this chart, again, I’ve used it quite often. And the reason why is what we can see is about 75% of the world’s debt right now doesn’t get paid, gets bigger as it rolls over. 75% is less than five years, meaning about every four years, the majority of the world’s debt has to get more debt to roll it over. Okay? So we’ve got put onto these four year cycles. I’ve broken this down many times.

Now, the problem is that, and what we’ve seen going on is that we’re in this, what we call like a liquidity pocket. There’s debt that needs to get rolled over. The world needs the Fed, the central banks, the Fed of the United States. But other major central banks, other major central banks are the ECB, European Central bank, the BoJ bank of Japan, and the PBOC, the chinese central bank. Those are sort of the major ones. And what we can see is that they need liquidity because they need to keep their markets or their debt rolling over to keep their markets going.

But the problem is that we have been, the world has been, the Fed has been in a tightening cycle, so they want to tighten up the monetary supply. But right now, the other nations of the world needed to start easing so they can get that liquidity, so they, they can roll that debt over. Now, what’s happening is China desperately needs this, but they can’t go into an easing right now while the Fed is still in a tightening. The reason why is that’s going to crash. Their currency, the yuan, will plunge. Same with Japan. Japan desperately needs liquidity, but their currency is already crashing.

We covered all this in another video. We’ll link to it down below how Japan caused all this. So we’ll link to that if you want to go watch that. But basically, Japan’s in the same situation. ECB, everyone’s in the same boat. Why do you think Janet Yellen has made a couple trips over to China this year? Well, probably talking about how the US treasury is going to work with China to make sure they get the liquidity that they want. Now, what we can see is that the central banks around the world are all starting to join in on this.

We’ll call it regime change, going from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle. As a matter of fact, as of a couple of days ago, Britain now joins the rate cut club. Britain has now started to cut their rates. We can see Switzerland has cut their rates. Canada’s cut their rates. Sweden cut their rates. The eurozone cut their rates, UK cut their rates. The US is just pausing. New Zealand is pausing, Norway is pausing, Australia. So not everybody has cut. But what’s happened is while the rest of the world is moving, the major central banks, mainly China and Japan, have been waiting.

Now, Japan couldn’t wait any longer, and so Japan forced their hand by Japan surprising the world with this rate, hike it through the whole world. It caused this carry trade to unwind, and now it’s forcing the Fed to get on board with this. Now we can see, and we talked about this at the Fed’s last meeting. Jerome Powell sort of hinted that they were going to do it, that they’re going to reverse course, start loosening up the monetary supply so we can start to increase that liquidity. Now, what we can see right here, this is the Fed watch tool, and this basically is like a betting market.

It predicts what’s going to happen. Will the Fed raise or lower rates? Now, what we can see, there’s a 100% chance that they will ease rates at the next meeting. As a matter of fact, it’s about 50 50, 56% here, 43% here, that we’ll see between 475 to 500 basis points, or 500 to 525. So it’s not really a question of if right now, it’s only a question of how big will this be. Now, why does all this matter? Well, it matters to understand what is going on. This is not a complete breakdown of the world’s going to die.

This is a liquidity pocket. And the world is sort of fighting over, and everyone’s waiting for the Fed to move. Now, the Fed told us when they’re gonna move. We can see it in the betting markets, and we understand what’s going to happen. So when we start to look at this and start to understand this, what we wanna do is we wanna take this new information and say, has something fundamentally changed my thesis now, you know, again, if you’ve been watching my videos for a while, since October of 2022, I made a video, said there’s no market crash coming.

Here’s why. And all through 2023, I made all those videos and explained all this. So you’re pretty caught up in this, but let’s just look, is the thesis that we’ve been talking about for the last, now, whatever year and a half, is it still intact or did something fundamentally change? That’s what we want to do, we don’t want to over trade on the information. Not every single piece of information is something that we need to use, but we want to make sure if it is or isn’t the question that we want to ask ourselves. In the last year and a half, I’ve been saying the bull market is canceled.

I made a video in August of 2023. I said, the bear market’s canceled. Is the bull market, is it over? Are we still on track? Well, we can look at a couple things. So the first thing is to understand, again, like I’ve already said, that we understand that debt has to get rolled over on a four year cycle. It has to. If you don’t print the money, if you don’t increase the debt, to roll over the existing debt, the whole system comes crashing down. Now, there’s never been a government, ever, in current times, Lebanon, Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, or in past times that’s ever just said, well, boys, it was a good run while we had it.

Let’s just pack up shop. No, they will always print and increase the debt to roll over the debt. Always. There’s never been a case when they haven’t done that. And what we can see, as I said, it shows up in that four year cycle. But we can see it like this. So this is the liquidity cycle right here. This is from Michael Howell. And you can see it moving in this four year cycle. I use this quite often. Now, what’s important to understand, for us to understand our thesis, is to understand it doesn’t move straight across.

It oscillates up and down. So what we want to do is we want to understand, where are we in this cycle? Are we in the spring, the summer, the fall or the winter? Where are we in the cycle? That’s a key piece to understand this thesis. Now, we can take a look at not only the debt cycles, the liquidity cycles, like I showed you, but even the business cycles are caught up. As a matter of fact, this is the Ism. The ism sort of tracks this business cycle for us. And we can see that it sort of oscillates, just like the chart I was showing you before.

Some are deeper, some are more shallow. But I put these red arrows here to show you something important. And what I’m trying to show you with these is that this one, this deep one right here, that was 2008. Now, remember I said that they move in four year cycles. So 2000, 820, 1220, 16, 2020 and 2024. Every four years we see a bottom. Now, this one was the great financial crash. That’s why it was so much deeper. This one was the pandemic when the whole world got shut down. So that’s why these broke deeper. But you can see, this is where the trend line is now.

The reason why it’s important to understand this right here is that right now, remember, summer, spring, winter, fall, right now, we are at the bottom of the cycle. Okay, so what does this mean? If we were starting to see this, what we call, like, a market spasm, if we were starting to see this liquidity pocket, but it was happening here or here, then we might go, oh, well, maybe the market is done. Maybe it is time to roll over. So you can see right here, it gets, like, very spasmy at the top, right? Or here, it gets very spasmy at the top.

So if it was happening right around here, we’re like, ooh, this could be it. This could be the time that it crashes and doesn’t come down. But we’re not. We’re not at the top. We’re at the very bottom. Now, of course, nothing goes up and down in a straight line, and so we’re seeing that volatility here at the bottom. But where we go is most likely up from here. Now, there’s no guarantee, but if you’re an elementary kid and you understand patterns, it’s pretty easy to understand what comes next. Now, for a more zoomed out view, here’s another chart.

So that was the business cycle. But again, the business cycle, the debt cycle, they all go together to increase the liquidity in the world. So here’s a chart. You’ve probably seen me use this one before. This is the global liquidity. It’s important to understand the global liquidity and not just the US. A lot of people get stuck into looking at the m two money supply, the Fed balance sheet. And those are certainly important because the fed sort of dictates the movement of the rest of the world. As I said, the world waiting on the Fed to act.

However, when we’re looking at commodities, gold, oil, gas, we’re looking at bitcoin. Those are global assets. And even stocks, for that matter, get money from across the globe. So if we look at the global liquidity, what we can see is from 2010 to 2014, we had an up year. Now, nothing goes up and down in a straight line, as you can see. It went up and down and up and down. And then we had our down period. Then we had from March 2015 to March 2018, up. And we entered down here, October 2018 to March 22, down year.

And then here, October 22, and we’re up. Why October 22? Well, remember I told you on my channel, go back and look. October of 22nd, 22, I said, there is no market crash coming. And here’s why. And it’s because this next liquidity cycle started to pick back up again. This is where we’re at in the cycle. We’re nowhere near the top. If we were at the top of the market, then I’d be concerned if there was something bigger that changed, like, for example, the central banks were not easing, for example, then maybe my thesis could change.

But the fact is, right now, nothing has. Now, here’s another chart that I’ve used. If you watch my channel regularly, you’ve seen this. If you don’t watch it regularly again, click on that subscribe button. And what we can see here is something very similar. This is also total liquidity. And we can see these blue years, as I marked with these red arrows are the down years every fourth year. Now, if you did the math in your head, 2000. 820 1220 16 2020 2024. Every four years, that just so happens to coincide with the four year presidential election cycle and the four year bitcoin having cycle.

And I showed you the ism business cycle, and it all coordinates on that date. And so we can see that we have one, two, three good years and a down year. One, two, three good years and a down year. And so again, if I’m an elementary kid and I can understand patterns, I would expect one, two, three good years and then a down year. The problem for most of you guys, not everybody, some of you understand it like I do. The problem with most of you guys is that you’re way too zoomed in. I don’t even know how many hundreds or maybe even thousands of messages I’ve gotten across social media in the last week telling me, oh, I caught the dip.

I shorted this. I made money on the short. I did it. I’m like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. All that is just way too short term. All that’s way too short term. Like, at least be looking a year out or five years out, because, again, this doesn’t move in a straight line. And what happens is a lot of you are way too zoomed in. You’re getting yourself all psyched out. And this is why I say all the time, don’t mess this up. Now, what does don’t mess this up mean? Well, what that means is that we have the biggest opportunity to build wealth over the next twelve to 15 months, right in front of us.

And as long as you make a couple of basic moves, you’re going to make more money than you could have imagined. However, most of you are going to mess it up because you’re going to be too zoomed in, you’re going to over trade the situation, and you’re going to mess it up, but not if you continue to watch me. Okay? Now, part of not messing this up means that we have to understand where we want to be invested. So I use this chart all the time. These are the 50 year technological revolution cycles. We know that every one of these dictates a new place that we need to be investing, and we’re in one right now.

All the richest people in history got rich because they built their businesses that aligned with these cycles. All right? So the last 50 years has been dominated by Jeff Bezos, by telecom, by personal computers, Bill Gates, and Internet. Before that, right here, 1908, the father of the automobile, mass production. Before that, we had steel, we had railways, we had oil, right? And so each one of these. So not messing up means that we’re in the right place, which is technology. We’re in a technology boom. And so the only place to invest right now is exploding technology.

Now, which part of technology? I’ll break that down for you. But before I break that down, I do want to just tell you real quickly about today’s show sponsor. Now, in a technology driven black hole that I’m kind of referring to, the only place to invest is technology. The world’s continuing to become more and more driven by technology, which is a good thing, right? We have Wi Fi everywhere now, 5G, Bluetooth. We have smart devices, you know, sleep trackers, electronic vehicles, bluetooth headphones, and everything else, right? It’s a massive convenience. I love this world where all this stuff can be tracked and no wires.

But there’s a big problem with it. The big problem is that all these devices, the Bluetooth, the Wi Fi create emfs, and those emfs are all caused by these devices. Now, there’s one company that’s just solved this problem. The company is called Aries Tech. Now, the tickler sticker symbol is Usaarif, all right? And they just solved this problem. Now, personally, I went back to using wired headphones. I ditched my sleep trackers that I used to use, and the reason why is because I’m trying to keep my brain from getting scrambled by all these emfs that are out there.

They’re all around me, everywhere, and I can’t really get away from them. In Wifi everywhere, which is why I started using this little tiny sticker that goes on the back of my phone, or you can wear it, and it basically takes these harmful emfs and it completely neutralizes them. Now, this is a really big deal, okay? Emfs cause all types of problems and they’re everywhere, all around us. And like I said, this is a really big problem. As a matter of fact, there’s been over 1000 studies done in the US and globally showing evidence of negative effects from EMF, particularly from smartphones, from Wi Fi routers, from 5G, all that.

As a matter of fact, I’m no friend of the World Health Organization, but they did a study and they classified radio frequency emfs as carcinogenic, basically like cancer. They put them into a group 20, and. Which is basically the same group as chloroform, same group as engine fumes, as. As welding fumes. It’s pretty bad. And this little device that Ariestech made, it changes all that, right? And this isn’t fake, like pseudoscience, nothing like that. This little thing is backed by over 20 years of research. There’s 22 global patents, there’s, I think, more than 25 clinical trials that have done nine peer reviewed studies.

I mean, this is the real deal. And you can literally see the difference in brain scans of people while they’re using the smartphones. You can see it with and without the device. And while, you know, I’m using this, you should probably be running one. I also love this company as an investment because as a legendary investor, billionaire investor Peter lynch said that most people could actually beat the market if they just invested into things that they know, they like, they use, they understand. And this company right here is going to grow right alongside the technology revolution that we’re investing into.

Right? This is going to dominate markets. The world’s going to continue to be more electrified, and this company is going to be able to grow along with that. And we can see it already. Their sales are exploding at 50% a year. They have some of the biggest relationships going on. Ambassadors. And they just signed a massive deal with the UFC that hasn’t even been promoted yet. Now you can see how partnering with the UFC in the past has helped other brands and products completely blow up, like prime sports drink, you know, with Logan Paul, or proper number twelve, the whiskey that was launched by Conor McGregor, Giraffe Kings, or, I mean, even Bud light partnered with UFC to turn their brand around after they completely blew it up.

And now, right now, currently as an investment, the stock is up about 16%. On the year, but that’s only a small part of it. You see, the stock sort of been this roller coaster because they kind of messed up, in my opinion. They mistimed it. Right? They basically sold, they raised money at around $0.11. They brought in a bunch of financing, but it was right before the sales started taking off. And so the price started blowing up, which was good, except for the problem is that all the people that they had pre sold that price to, they saw that it was going to their lockup period.

What we call it was going to expire in June. And as soon as it did, they started to sell the price down, and the prices plunged down. Now, that’s bad for the company. Some of these insiders made money, but it’s good for us, right? It’s good for us because now we get a chance to get in almost at the exact same price that these insiders got in, which is right now somewhere in about the $0.20 range. Now, again, I’m using this device. You can see celebrities like Russell Brand. He’s using it on his phone. We have health and biohacking legend Gary Breca.

He’s using it. He’s been talking about it all over. And it’s just a matter of time until you can see, you know, I don’t know, hotels offering this in your room, or Apple selling one with every phone and any device they sell. The bottom line is technology is advancing. It’s advancing at a parabolic rate. And emFs, they’re a huge problem for our health. And there’s finally a solution. Now I’m using it. Celebrity is using it. The UFC just partnered with it. And when you look at their share price, it doesn’t account for any of that yet, doesn’t account for any of the partnerships that are happening.

And Ariestech has, for the first time, kind of has this first mover advantage. 22 patents, all the clinical studies, and they’re basically in front of this to help tackle this problem with EMFs in our environment. I don’t want to keep going on, but you get it, right? So just go ahead and write this stock ticker down. It’s Aries Tech. It’s a a RF. And just keep your eye on it. Right. Maybe put it on your watch list. Right? Put your eyes on it. And remember that you’re hearing about this before the UFC partnership kicks off. Right.

So you’re seeing this on the ground floor. Okay, so that’s it. Just keep watching it. And let’s go back into this tech boom. And where we should be investing. Okay, so for the last piece of investing through this tech cycle, again, if you watch the channel regularly, you’ve seen this again. So about every 50 years there’s this cycle. And we’re in one right now. But what does that mean exactly? Right, because investing in tech is a pretty broad term. Well, let’s just look at a couple of things. So first of all, is our thesis. Let’s just go back to is it still a good time to be putting money in the market? Now, this is the s and P 500.

And the reason why, I just want to start with this real quickly is this is going back a couple of years here. And we can see by this green line, sort of this trend line, and this is nothing really advanced technical analysis, but you can see this trend line. And the reason why I show this to you is that the market structure is basically holding up. We’re bouncing right here. And so we did drop through here, but the structure has been holding up. We’re bouncing here right now. And so, no, our thesis didn’t change. The liquidity is coming.

The bank of the Britain. The Bank of Britain is switching positions. The fed is going to switch here next month. We can see the same thing with bitcoin. Is bitcoin going to plunge down to zero like Peter Schiff says it is? Well, again, some rough ta, but we drew a line here and we can see, I mean, it was cheap right here. We told you to buy it, got a little overextended, and now it’s bouncing right here and it’s going back up. So everything is still on pace to go back up. Now, what we can see though, is that when it comes to investing our money, we can see that the, I’ve talked about this many times, the real rate of return that we need to beat isn’t inflation, it’s not CPI, not consumer price index.

It’s the rate of monetary expansion or the rate of liquidity rising. And what we can see here in this chart is that the blue line is the rate of liquidity, global liquidity rising. The white line is the price is bitcoin and gold. And what we can see is that gold moves at about 1.45 times liquidity. So for every 10% increase in liquidity, gold goes up by about 14%. For every 10% in liquidity, we know that bitcoin goes up at 8.9 times, or roughly 90%. And so if we’re trying to beat about twelve to 15% hurdle rate, gold could do a pretty good job of keeping us from drowning, keeping our head above water.

But if we really want to make money, we want to be in bitcoin technology and things like that. And so I’m talking about bitcoin. I’m talking about bitcoin 2.0, bitcoin and bitcoin proxies. And the combination of that in conjunction with AI, it’s massive. Now, a lot of people think they’ve missed the boom right here, but we are right here at this point, and we are about to witness the largest piece of growth and actually the safest piece of growth at the same time. So don’t get shaken out. This is not a change in thesis. This is just a liquidity pocket, right? In my opinion, this is a gift.

It’s a setup. And if you’ve got a chance to buy some $50,000 bitcoin or some of these AI stocks in the last couple of days, you are going to be rewarded. Just wait. Twelve more months and it’s all going to blow up. Now, if you want to know the exact plays that I’m buying and how I’m measuring these and what do I mean by Bitcoin 2.0 and crypto, then you might just want to watch this other video that I have up right here. Go ahead and check that out. Otherwise, leave me a comment. Let me know what you think about the video.

Let me think about the thesis. Maybe you think your thesis has changed. I’d love to hear it. Give me a thumbs up if you like it. If you don’t, give me a thumbs down, that’s okay. But at least, like I said, leave a comment and tell me why. Subscribe. If you’re not already subscribed, watch that other video. And that’s what I got. Tier success. I’m out.
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