➡ Mark Moss talks about how Bitcoin stocks may seem unstable with frequent crashes, but they have shown to bounce back and provide significant returns for early investors. Bitcoin, a new type of asset, has outperformed traditional assets like real estate and commodities. Companies like MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet have seen huge gains from investing in Bitcoin, despite its volatility. The key is to understand the data and patterns, and not to panic sell during a crash.

➡ Metoplanet and Bitcoin are both volatile, but Metoplanet is more so, going up and down 2.6 times as much as Bitcoin. However, Metoplanet’s recovery from downturns is slower, taking 4.8 times longer than Bitcoin. Despite this, Metoplanet has the potential to yield higher returns. Comparatively, MicroStrategy is also volatile but not as much as Metoplanet. Understanding these patterns can help investors manage their risk and potentially reap larger rewards.

➡ The speaker is offering guidance on how to identify good companies for investment. They provide a Treasury report card to help distinguish between good and bad companies. They also invite the audience to join them live for a detailed explanation and to answer any questions. They provide a link and QR code for easy access to the report and further information.

If you’re holding Bitcoin stocks right now, watching them crash 50, 60, even 80 percent, don’t sell them until you see what I’m about to show you. Metoplanet crashed 78 percent last year, 12 separate times it crashed over 20 percent. And yet, early investors are still up 3,700 percent. How is that even possible? Real quick, I’m Mark Moss. I’m a partner of Bitcoin Venture Fund, actively investing in these treasury companies. And what I found in this data completely changed the way that we’re positioning for what’s coming next. And if you understand what happens about every 45 days like clockwork, you’ll realize that this crash might be the best opportunity this year.

So let’s go. All right, so don’t hit that sell button just yet. Are we talking about a digital gold rush or is it time to head for the exits? All right, let’s frame this up a little bit so we should know if we’re about to get out of the way or take position and watch out for the next run. Okay, so first of all, we are talking about something that’s a completely new asset class. It’s completely misunderstood by 99 percent or more of the people. Now, first of all, we’re talking about Bitcoin, which is its own new asset class.

So Bitcoin is the first new asset class we’ve had in 500 years. We had real estate, we had commodities, we had equities, and now we have Bitcoin. All right, first new asset class in 500 years. And it’s different. There’s a lot of new things that we can do and build in this new financial system with this new financial asset. Now, we’ve seen companies like MicroStrategy, and we can see how they’ve completely outperformed everything for the last 12 months. So from August 2024 to August 2025, Bitcoin has returned 75 percent, which is completely smoked gold, the MAG 7, S&P 500, real estate, bonds, everything.

But MicroStrategy or strategy has doubled the performance of that in the same time period. It’s about two times more volatile to the upside and yes, sometimes to the downside. So we have a new asset and we have a new financial system being built on top of this new asset. Now, we already know that this asset is volatile. That’s one of the things that most people say about Bitcoin. But isn’t it volatile? Yes, it is. That’s why it’s so much further up. And this new asset is even more volatile. So that’s what we want to answer.

Should we sell now or should we go away? Here’s a five-year chart. Let’s just look at this real quick. So again, Bitcoin has averaged almost 60 percent per year for the last five years, cumulatively, 885 percent. Again, smoking every other asset that’s out there, 58 percent. And again, MicroStrategy has almost doubled that for a 3,000 percent return in the same five-year period. I also have MetaPlanet here. MetaPlanet is the first company that was able to successfully duplicate the strategy. They launched in Japan about a year and a half ago. Last year, they were the best performing stock in the world, not Japan, in the world last year.

And we can see how this is compared to other assets that are in Japan. So we can see that the stock has done 3,600, 3,631 percent compared to other things like Hitachi, 40 percent, Sony, 60 percent, Mitsubishi, 46 percent, the SPY, the SP500, 24 percent, etcetera, 3,600 percent. So these companies are much more volatile. So they’re down a little bit right now. And people are asking, is it over? Did the bubble burst? Should I sell now or should I enter? And that’s what we want to take a look at right now. And of course, we’re going to use data to guide us down that path.

Now, the first thing we want to understand is that again, I said MetaPlanet was the first one to successfully duplicate the strategy. Once they proved that they could duplicate the strategy, then other people have entered to duplicate the strategy. And we’ve seen dozens of new followers coming in. And most of these are coming from what we call different jurisdictions. So we have the U.S., now we have Japan, now we have Sweden, now we have Brazil, now we have the U.K., etc. And what we’ve seen is these companies had massively explosive gains, huge gains.

As a matter of fact, we’re down 3,000 percent, 5,000 percent, 8,000 percent, but they’ve all sold off. So let’s take a look at just a couple of these charts. Just so you can see this, I’d love to show you the charts you can understand this. Here’s MetaPlanet. It was up 8,000 percent and now it’s sold all the way off. It’s down 60 percent off of its high, but obviously it’s still up on some big gains. But look, it went up and it came down. It went up and came down. It went up, came all the way down.

It went up and it came down. This will go up next. Well, we’re going to answer that in a second. Here’s one in the U.K., smarter web company. We can see this one went up by 8,000 percent. Look at this one. As a matter of fact, from here it went up 24,000 percent and has since come down about 85 percent. Massive. But again, it went up and down and up and down, up and down, up and down, up and down. We can see here, here’s H100. I think this is a company out of Sweden.

Again, same thing. We can see they went all the way up 1,900 percent and now they’re down all the way down about 65 percent. Here’s the last one. I’m going to show you Capital B. This is out of France. Same thing. They saw a massive explosion, 1,300 percent and now they’re down about 70 percent. Okay, so huge gains and some pullbacks. If you bought here, you’re still sitting really, really good. If you bought here, though, you’re dealing with some pain. What comes next? Again, we want to look at data. Okay, so the question is, what’s going on? Is this over? Well, we’re going to look at data to try to understand this.

Now, by the way, just real quick, if you don’t make it all the way to the end, next week I’m going to be having a live presentation where I’m going to break down all of this data for you. I’m going to give you all the new indicators you’ve been watching for. We’re going to be looking at the companies that I have my eye on. We’re going to be making predictions of where we’re going and I’m going to open it up for live Q&A so we can all talk about this. I can share all the information.

You can understand this a bit better. There’s a link down below. It’s all free if you want to come hang out. There’s a QR code right here. Come hang out. It’s going to be fun, but let’s go ahead and just jump right in. So is it over? Well, what we want to do is we want to compare MetaPlanet and MicroStrategy. Why those? Because all the ones that I just showed you are like four or five months old. So we want to go back and have as much data as we can. So we’ll look at these two that have some time.

Like I said, we have about 18 months of time here. We have five years of time here. And what we see when we look at the data, we want to see what are the cycles. So Bitcoin typically moves in a four year cycle. What kind of cycles do these move into? And what’s the correlation between Bitcoin? Because Bitcoin isn’t down that much right now. Or is there correlation between each other? So first of all, let’s look at MetaPlanet. Alright, so it’s the first one to duplicate the strategy. It’s been around about, like I said, about 18 months.

And so that’s the one that’s going to give us the most data to try to understand this. Now in this chart, what we have are these pink areas. And the pink areas are the drawdowns. These are the bear markets. Again, we’ve had about 12 bear markets that have gone down by more than 20% in this time period in the last 18 months. And so you can see bear market, bear market, bear market, bear market. We’ve had some big ones. I want to show you just that visually. But let’s kind of break this down so we can see.

Now, how long have they lasted? How severe have they been? Well, the average drawdown has been 32%. Pretty deep, deep bear market. The average duration has been 20 days. However, that’s just the average. There’s ones longer and shorter. The most severe was 79%. And it lasted 119 days, so about four months. And that was last year from July to November of last year. So about four months and 80% drawdown. Much deeper and more severe than it is today. And it’s lasted longer than we have today. And it came back for huge returns.

The shortest correction one day. The longest correction, again, 120 days, 78% drawdown. The significant dips of 10 or more, we’ve seen 24 of those just in this timeframe. 24. 12 of more than 20%. Again, average drawdown, 21%, etc. Okay, but what we want to take a look at is to try to understand this a little bit better. And how correlated other? How could we tell when these things are going to happen? Well, there’s a couple of things that we can see. So first of all, we can see that Metoplanet averages 2.6 times the severity of Bitcoin’s drawdown.

So we like these companies, I like these companies, because they should return 2, 3, 5 times what Bitcoin does. If Bitcoin goes up 10 times, these should go up 20, 30, or 50 times. I like that. But volatility works both ways. So if Bitcoin goes down two times, they could if they goes down one time, they can go down two times, three times, five times, you see how that works. And so they’re currently about 2.6 times the severity, both to the upside and to the downside. In July to November 2024, when Metoplanet went down 78%, almost 79%, Bitcoin’s multiple only went down 20 to 26%.

So Bitcoin went down 20, 26%. Metoplanet went down almost 79%. February to May 2025, Metoplanet went down 54%, versus again, Bitcoin only went down as much as 28%. So again, about two times, two and a half times. All right. Now, what about the speed and recovery? It’s a lot slower. Spoiler. Metoplanet’s corrections are 4.8 times longer. So Bitcoin recovers much faster than it takes Metoplanet. In duration, it recovers 5.1 times slower than Bitcoin. So Bitcoin crashes and rebounds, and it takes a while for Metoplanet to get back there. So a lot of people are like, well, I know Bitcoin hits 120,000 price range, and now it’s whatever, 108, 110,000.

So why are these companies so far down? Well, number one, because they draw down much more severely, volatility works both ways. And two, they don’t bounce back as fast. Maximum duration of disparity, 120 days versus only 10 days. So Bitcoin only had, during the times they were synchronized, Bitcoin took about 10 days to get back versus again, Metoplanet took four months to get back. In this July to November 2024 period, Metoplanet’s single day, 119 day correction, overlapped with six separate Bitcoin mini bear markets. So during that 120 day cycle, Bitcoin had six mini bear markets within that time period.

So it’s not super correlated with Bitcoin. As a matter of fact, I believe only five out of 12 have been correlated with Bitcoin’s price. So if you’re just looking at the Bitcoin price, trying to understand what’s happening with these, you’re going to completely miss out. They have their own company specific factors. And when they do overlap, they get extended. Now, we know that Bitcoin has these four year cycles. So about every four years, Bitcoin has this cycle. What’s happening with these companies is they have like, they have like 12 cycles in one year.

All right, so we have to understand they’re really very cyclical. But what we can see from this data is what we’ve seen with Metoplanet and these other companies drawdowns, it’s not near as severe as we’ve seen in the past. The last time we saw it had this severe drawdown, it went on to return over 1000% returns. And it hasn’t even been as long either. Now, if we compare Metoplanet to micro strategy, we see a lot more interesting data. So for example, Metoplanet wasn’t very correlated to Bitcoin, less than 50%. But it’s 55% correlated with each other more than with Bitcoin itself.

And if we look at some of the data here, we can see similar, but not as severe. And I’ll explain why. In April to May of 2024, micro strategy went down 46%. While Metoplanet had multiple 22 to 25% correction. So again, now you have Metap micro strategy drawing down and Metoplanet has many drawdowns within that. June to July 2024, micro strategy went down 33%. And Metoplanet again had 24 to 25% corrections. August to September, micro strategy was down 40%. Metoplanet was down 78%. So it had this amplification, because it’s more volatile. What do I mean by more volatile? So Bitcoin is more volatile than the S&P 500.

It means it goes up more, but it goes down more. I showed you that. Micro strategy is more volatile than Bitcoin. So it goes up almost two times Bitcoin, it goes down almost two times Bitcoin. Metoplanet goes up three or four times Bitcoin, and it comes down three or four times Bitcoin, right? So they’re more severe. And we can see that here in January to April, they were about parity, micro strategy and Metoplanet pulled down about the same. If we move on, but we can see that micro strategy amplifies Bitcoin’s corrections by 1.9 times, and Metoplanet amplifies Bitcoin’s corrections by two times.

So it’s a little more volatile. It’s going to make you more money on the up, but you’re also going to be having bigger drawdowns on the way down. Metoplanet’s 15 times outperformance over micro strategy comes with surprisingly modest additional volatility risk. So the volatility hasn’t changed that much, but it outperforms. Again, it returned 3000% versus micro strategy returning 156%. Metoplanet average drawdown 32%, micro strategy is 27. So to understand volatility, you have to understand the downside and the upside. Maximum drawdowns, Metoplanet 78, micro strategy 49. But the recovery time was different.

Again, Metoplanet took 2.7 times longer to recover than micro strategy. So what happens is you want to think about your volatility and your risk, and you kind of want to think about it like this, almost like a pyramid. And so the money that you don’t want to have severe drawdowns, a big majority of it’s going to go right here. Now, I might have a little bit of room for risk, I can have a little bit of drawdown, so I might put a little bit of money here. And then I’m going to take some moonshots, and I’m going to put a couple of positions up here.

And I know they’re going to be super volatile, but they can make huge returns. And that’s exactly how these Bitcoin Treasury companies are. Now, what comes next? That’s the question on everybody’s mind. Are these companies coming back? Was it a blow off top that never comes back? Well, we have to understand that they’re cyclical in nature. So I just showed you that instead of one cycle over four years, they’re having like 12 cycles every one year. So they’re cyclical in nature. We know that they’re two to five times more volatile than Bitcoin or than each other, and it works in both directions.

But I do believe, and I’m going to show you why, I do believe the good companies, the good Bitcoin Treasury companies, should two to five x Bitcoin. So again, if Bitcoin goes up 10x in the next five years, these should go up 20 times, 30 times, or 50 times in the next five years. So the next question is, what’s going to happen with Bitcoin? Well, let’s take a look at that. So here’s a couple of charts I have. This is a chart that I got from strategy’s quarter two earnings call. And this is Michael Saley put this together.

And this is not his forecast for Bitcoin. This is all the top research analysts predicting for Bitcoin. Now, what we can see is Barclays gives it an end of the year price target of 116, Bernstein 200, BTIG Compass 150, Wainwright 225, Maxim 235. Basically, nobody knows. But they’re all taking educated guesses. If we average this all up, it puts an end of the year price target of 168, 170,000. So maybe Bitcoin goes up 50%, 60% by the end of the year. And these companies two, three, five times more volatile could go up way more.

But who cares about the end of the year? Where’s Bitcoin going to be in five years and 15 years? That’s the question you should be asking yourself. So let’s take a look at this. Now, I have done, I’ve shown you this chart several times, if you watch my channel regularly, you’ve already seen this. And this is basically taking all what we call store value assets, Bitcoin, gold, collectibles, equities, real estate, bonds, money, so all of what we call store value assets. And it’s predicting how much that basket will grow until the end of the decade 2030.

And it’s based off of the Congressional Budget Office, the CBO, predicting how much debt, how much deficit spending, the budget, all of that, and it predicts that based off of that. And per this, I’m putting a price target of $21 trillion on Bitcoin’s market cap by 2030, which means it’s about $1 million per Bitcoin, or about a 10x from here, an 8x from here, something like that. So a good company should do two or three x or more than that. So if Bitcoin goes up 10x, they can go up 20x or 30x.

Okay, that’s by 2030. What about if we look at by 2040? Again, this is based off of the Congressional Budget Office numbers. And by 2040, it puts Bitcoin at about a $289 trillion market cap, or $14 million per coin. And again, a good company should do two, three, or five x that. So that’s what we’re looking for Bitcoin. And we’re looking at even more for these really good companies. So for me, they’re buys and holds. Now, I said good companies. Not every company is a good company. So you want to make sure you buy the right company.

If you’d like my Treasury report cards, you can understand how to determine a good company versus a bad company. Then come hang out with me live. I’m going to break this all down. I’ll go through the scorecard. I’ll give you your own, so you can start rating your own companies. I’ll show you the companies that I like the best that I’m watching. We’ll hang out. We’ll do it all live so I can answer all your questions live. We’ll put a link down below. We’ll put a QR code right here. But get the Treasury report, come hang out with me.

And if you want to know more about where this data goes and how I broke this down, so you can actually the math behind it, then you might want to watch this video right here. And I’ll see you over there. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.