How Silver Trading Is Being Impacted By Copper Gold | Arcadia Economics

➡ The article discusses the current state of oil, gold, and copper markets, suggesting that oil might be bottoming out and could be a good speculative buy. It also mentions that gold’s volatility is calming down, indicating a potential trend change. The article also highlights the shift in the economy post-COVID, with some sectors booming while others are laying off workers. Lastly, it mentions that Open AI is aiming to raise $5 billion, which could double its valuation.

Silver is not tracking gold at all in the higher moves and it’s not tracking copper lower at all in the base moves. So it’s kind of in the middle. The point is, and it’s not technical, I don’t have a lot of technical things to add about silver right now, is that if copper is off the lows and gold is stable, silver is a rocket ship. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey and today’s Market Rundown we will do a technical analysis run through. We will also discuss oil. Where is the floor? Okay, let’s start with the markets. I will leave you a four charts to look at first. It’s a little busy but we’ll take care of that in a second. The dollar is 101.68 down four. Ten year yields are unchanged bid at 366. The S&P 500 is 55.63 up almost 12 handles. The VIX is 17.83 up a little bit. Gold is 25.18 up seven dollars.

Very important day I think for gold. Silver is up only 10 cents at 28.77. Copper is 418 and change up almost five cents. Gold silver creeping lower. WTI up a dollar off the lows. Still near the lows. That gas 220 unchanged. Bitcoin 58,000 we’re back home again. 724. Ethereum 2348 up eight. Palladium up 10. Platinum up 10. 1026 959. I am almost certain that this palladium platinum flip that we saw is on the back of some comments coming out of Russia. I think he said he was going to stop exporting certain metals. Nickel other metals he has and you know palladium is they’re only they’re one of only two producers I believe for the most part of palladium worldwide and they have the biggest vaultage if you want to call it that.

Grains continue to go higher with wheat the strongest. Soy up 1024 up 6. Corn 396 up 4. And wheat 591 up 9. And there’s the four charts. We’ll look at those in a second. Premium analysis. Oil’s floor below. News technical analysis breakdown. Home page. Gold’s lid may be loose. Certainly gold hasn’t left the jar yet as the picture shows. Buy seasons full timeline and why the UAE African gold play is a big deal. Where’s oil’s floor? Where is the oil floor? Energy. We have some analysis from MUFG. We have their commodity weekly and it’s very good.

It touches on all the commodities with regards to energy. They noticed that oil’s bullish market structure has left the building implying that when the curve goes less backward dated or more contango if you want to call it that that’s an implication that the oil market has physically lost its desire to stay up. So it’s another reason to be bullish. I mean bearish. However, if you are a believer that the oil market is somewhat efficient and it’s very efficient, I believe the market has been discounting this for the last several months.

With regards to base metals, they note that base metals remain well down from May peaks owing to elevated inventories and China’s ongoing growth malaise. So they are bearish on that. Pressures metals. Gold is on track to match another record with a stronger Japanese yen, a weaker US dollar and the 10 year treasury yields down. We forecast prices to rise to 2750 by year end and breach to 3000 per ounce threshold in 2025. That report continues at the bottom. Technical analysis rundown. All right. We’re looking at using trading use tools, pro tools.

We’re looking at several things, but we’re looking at copper, silver, gold and oil and a cursory glance at the dollar. Now we’re not technicians by trade. However, we’ve been hanging around them our whole lives and reading astrology. So we’re pretty good at understanding that. However, knowing that we don’t know things in depth too much, keep that in mind. So we’re looking for things that matter, not things that confirm bias. So let’s get to it. Starting with, let me just read these off. Copper, this is mental notes, 200 day moving average. We’re above a trend line and the 50 day is getting close to crossing.

Silver, copper keeps silver down. Silver is copper with a gold kicker. Gold time is very close. The Bollinger bands are telling me something very close is going to happen. Oil possible, long levels, but not really. I don’t see it. All right. The dollar will get to that in a second. All right. Start with copper, right? All right. Start with copper. There you go. Okay. The market here noted today or yesterday that copper had broached, breached its 200 day moving average. And that’s the blue line there. And we’re looking at that and we’re saying that is a sign of bottoming.

We added a 50 day moving hours and said, well, we want to see the market get above the 50 days. Well, however, this is not a setup for a bull run. I’m not saying it’s not a buy, but this is not a setup for a bull run from a moving average perspective, because the 50 days coming down to meet it. So if the 50 day crosses under and the 200 day turns down, well, you could have a disaster. Now, that said, the bullish scenario is pretty simple and it’s pretty clean. Since this shortage high, there’s been a trend line paraphasing what the marketer said.

There’s been a trend line going down that shorts have just been riding, right? So maybe they were riding here. I don’t know, but there’s your trend line. It goes here, there, there. So we’re now through that trend line the way they draw it, I think. I don’t draw the trend line, but there you have it. So that would give you a reason to think that we could be bottoming. Now, I threw up some RSI’s there. And on this low, you had an RSI here. On this low, which is not a new low, you had an RSI here.

So the RSI is not telling you anything. I like to use these at reversals or MACD’s. The RSI is not telling you anything except that the downside move has run out of steam. It’s not telling you, it’s not confirming that the market should turn around. It’s not giving you anything of a divergence. So you could, looking at the daily, look at this and say, you could say, oh, this is a new structure and you have a bull flag that’s starting to break up. Or you could look at this whole thing as a bear structure and this is a bear flag going down.

Anyway, if you want to be long, use the moving average as a daily level and look at this area as a congestion level that if it gets back into, it should skate through this time and retest the slope. So being long is not a bad idea. Now, the backdrop of all this is China, right? China’s problems are in the news more and more now, at least filtering in the West. And it’s not just news, it might be real. The price of oil goes down. China stops buying oil. That hurts the bricks. China’s not making stuff.

And the whole ghost city concept becomes a ghost factory. And I think they’re going to react very violently to fix this. And I think they’re already doing so with mortgage rates. But anyway, the point is they’re willing to risk that. And the point is copper is held ransom by China demand right now. And on the edge of the radar, China’s aluminum reserves or storage are finally dropping, which means copper could be not too far behind. So keep that in mind. Moving to silver. Now, silver is copper. Hear me out. Maybe I should put up a, I can’t do it.

Let’s do this. See that? Watch this. Forget this. This is the bullshit squeeze. This is copper. This is silver. Now I’m referring to this area mostly here. See, silver is part precious, part base. Every time gold goes up, you will get some silver short covering, but you’ll also get some selling. Every time copper goes down, silver feels it. So silver is not tracking gold at all in the higher moves. And it’s not tracking copper lower at all in the base moves. So it’s kind of in the middle. The point is, and it’s not technical, I don’t have a lot of technical things to add about silver right now, is that if copper is off the lows and gold is stable, silver is a rocket ship, right? Look, I mean, China is keeping copper down right now.

If you see stimulus in China, take a look at silver. In the meantime, silver will be hazardous to short silver because of gold buying, and it will be hazardous to be long silver because of the copper selling. So if you’re bullish copper, buy silver. Okay? That’s all I can say about that right now. Oil. We’ll get to gold last because it’s probably going to be the most definitive oil. We’re looking at oil closer now because as we’re in cell season, as we’re heading to high season, oil is going to be, I think, a good trade coming in.

Now, oil has a similar structure to copper. Now, I didn’t put the moving averages up on that yet. However, oil is, you can make the case right now that oil is bottoming. In fact, I think oil is probably a good spec buy right now because you have, depending on where you draw your line, right? You can draw your line here and say, we have to break this line for me to go up. You can draw your line here and say, we’ve broken this line, I should go up. Or you can just remove the lines and say, shit, I’m going to buy it and stop myself out here.

That’s bottom fishing. Or you can say, I’m going to wait for the MACD to shrink a little bit or go green and then buy it, but it could be too late. I want to buy oil, but I’m not going to buy it yet. Okay, that’s where I am. This whole structure here, see this bottom, bottom, bottom, skates through the bottom. If we get up to here again, I think it skates through it. So that’s the problem. OPEC news can come out that is translated as bullish for oil and oil could be here in a heartbeat.

It really could. I don’t think it will. When you look at the factors going on in the world today, you’ve got OPEC, that’s starting to have some internal dissension. You’re hearing it from me first, but there’s internal dissension in my opinion. You’ve got non-compliance cheaters. You’ve got non-OPEC people taking advantage of the Saudis pulling back on production. You’ve got Russia probably getting a little bit stressed out because the price of oil is down. You could see that in their reaction in other areas. They’re not weak, but they’re reacting. And so with the election coming up, oil is just going to remain under pressure.

You could see oil rally on an Israeli peace deal. It’s kind of crazy, but that’s kind of how oil will work. When everyone’s watching it during the war, it tends to get sat on. And when the war is over, they let it rally. It’s kind of like the payoff. Okay, so let’s go to gold. Now, gold may be the hardest to understand, unless you’re intimate with these things, but look at the Bollinger Bands, right? The Bollinger Bands are top to bottom, very narrow. And when they get very narrow like this, that’s a sign that not price, but volatility has caught its breath.

Volatility has calmed down, and volatility moves in cycles. Prices move in cycles, but volatility more reliably moves in cycles. So you are definitely at the end of an exhale cycle, and volatility has now caught its breath. It can start to move in any moment now. Now, if the market is inhaling now, what does exhale look like? Exhale looks like that when a trend starts, it doesn’t stop for a while, right? So I’ll give you an example of how this happened. Here’s volatility inhaling, right? And here’s an exhale. An exhale is a trend.

So an exhale is when the market gets going, it rarely reverses after the first day, all right? So there’s a lot more optimization for this, but it’s kind of simple. Market goes like this, it gets to a certain tightness. Now, it could be what tightness is it? Well, that’s the art of the business. And then once this starts to happen, it starts to break out, and these lines move in opposite directions, you get a trend. The trend is technically theoretically over here, but it continues anyway. Now, I’ll give an example of another one.

Here’s a mini one. It started here actually, so you kind of missed it. But anyway, we got a very healthy one. Okay, can it go sideways like this one did for a long period of time? See that? That’s a long period of time. Yes, it can. Will it? Probably not. Election, right? Bricks, there’s going to be news items. So this happens, by the way, again, a monster caps the market, a bank that’s international, that settles, caps the market, it goes sideways, it gets super tight, it breaks out. I think a monster caps the market, it goes sideways, and the news items are going to make it break out.

Could be a false breakout. So the moral of the story is, with regards to these things, see these prices here, these are my prices. If the market goes below 2480 on a daily basis, I’m probably going to get a signal. This is not a signal yet. If the market closes above 2527 on a daily basis, I’m going to probably get a signal. And if you get a signal, you’re supposed to go with the direction of the trend. So in this case, the direction of trail will be represented by the red arrow. The red arrow will be going up if we get above that yellow line.

If the red arrow turns down below this line, well, then you’re going to go with the red arrow. Anyway, long story short, volatility is about to start expanding again. The direction remains to be seen. There should be a lot of fireworks. I wish I could be a salesman about that, but that’s just the way it is. All right. That’s a technical analysis. Okay, so copper bottoming could be good. If the copper bottom is in, you like silver. Time is very close. The Bollinger Band say that the events coming up will beautifully coincide with a market that’s going sideways waiting for news.

Oil might be time to get long on the charts, but I don’t see that because I think the election and the news keep it down. But we’re closer to the end than to the beginning. How’s that? That’s all I can say there. Moving on, booming recession. Here’s the market news. I just want to draw your attention to these two items. Open AI is aiming to raise at least $5 billion at evaluation of $150 billion from investors, including Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Thrive Capital, and a deal that could almost double the artificial intelligence startups valuation.

That’s the booming part. The booming part is that’s infrastructure. Believe it or not, it may not be the infrastructure that you want, but it’s infrastructure. It’s manufacturing. It’s data centers. It’s jobs in the middle of a desert. Meanwhile, on the other side of the economy, you’ve got Price Waterhouse Cooper’s next item, US unit is laying off about 1800 workers, its first formal layoff since 2009. Taken together, it’s what we’ve been saying for the last almost four years now, that the post-COVID environment is a time for changing the economy. In the 70s, manufacturing no longer worked.

Everyone made things cheaper than us. We converted in the late 70s and early 80s under Reagan to a services economy. Be a stockbroker, be a consultant, be a salesman, be all these things. Manufacturing will let other people make it for us. That’s what the BRICS is all about. We’ll let the other people make it for us, and we will use financial engineering. Well, now, here we are 40, 35 years later, and we’re like, oh, shit, the BRICS want to get paid more. Well, maybe we should start manufacturing again. De-globalization, mercantilism, boom, those things happened.

Financial services industries drop in need because, hey, your customers in China are no longer your customers. You don’t have the gold collateral to trade futures in China anymore. The whole thing is just the complexity of the world is collapsing. Now, it’s going to be rebuilt, but right now, it’s in collapsing mode. As a result of that, you take all that big picture stuff and you bring it back here. That means the stockbroker, if there are any left, fired. The business consultant, fired. Businesses aren’t growing outside of the country. You don’t need a business consultant.

You don’t need Bryce Waterhouse Cooper’s middle management. You need workers. You need people to do things. Those things may be hanging drywall. Those things may also be cyber, which doesn’t seem very manufacturing, but it is. Making a chip is like high-tech cyber labor. That’s the economy. The economy has been since COVID in what’s called a K economy. Half the country is doing well, half the country is doing poorly, or at least they perceive they’re doing well. Today’s data is PPI, which is actually pretty important. I don’t have a handle on the numbers yet.

The premium ING is growing risk. OPEC may abandon its output cuts, and we have the MUFG commodity weekly report. One last time for the charts. Let’s get rid of the Bollinger Bands. Give you a quick view of gold. There it is, right? Take the Bollinger Bands away and those channels represent my lines. It’s very simple. Breakout above, breakout below. There’s a trade in here. It’s coming soon. Yesterday’s range. I don’t want to say too much more except to say this. This is technically, technically, using technical terms, not a triple top. They have to be the same exact price, but it pretty much is a triple top.

Triple tops are made to be broken, meaning they don’t exist. They don’t exist. Double tops are real, and triple tops are the cracking of the double top. So if you’re bullish, get ready. Okay? Have a great day. Gold and silver special each week, and if you’ve been looking for a pullback in the rally to purchase gold and silver, this week’s deals include one ounce silver fill harmonics from the Austrian men in Austria, good figure. Fortunately, these beautiful coins are only three dollars and ten cents over spot. While we still do have silver under the thirty dollar level, which it obviously eclipsed earlier this year, and on the gold side this week’s special is one ounce gold cougarance for only sixty dollars over spot.

And again, you can place an order by calling 833-326-4653 or emailing us at arcadia at milesfrankton.com. Happy to answer any questions you have and get you set up with whatever you need. So call us at 833-326-4653, and as always, thanks for watching. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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