➡ The article discusses the current state of the gold market, which has been unusually stable for several months. It questions whether this stability is due to central banks buying gold to increase their reserves, or if sellers are quietly unloading their stocks. The article also mentions that central banks currently hold gold at 15-20% of their total reserves, but some suggest that the optimal level is closer to 30%. This could potentially lead to an increased demand for gold in the future.
➡ Vince discusses the financial market, highlighting that the market often goes up and stays up. He also mentions Fortuna Mining’s recent success and the company’s stock rebound after a sell-off following the release of second-quarter earnings. Vince encourages viewers to do their own research and reach out to Fortuna for more information. He ends by wishing everyone a great Labor Day weekend.

When a market hits all-time highs and then hovers there for four months straight, quietly, almost unnaturally, with hardly a mention in mainstream media while the miners steadily climb, what’s really going on? Is gold being held in place to give central banks time to catch up when they’re buying, or is its sellers quietly unloading at the strike? Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and this is the gold fix market rundown of everyone as well.

It’s Friday. It’s 8.23, so there’s a chance that PCE will come out while I’m recording this, but I must move quickly. Today, we asked the question, how much gold will really be bought by central banks? You could call it the two trillion dollar question, where that’s the answer, maybe, but we’ll see. There’s the home page. We’re going to be discussing that topic. The post is off the page. We have a lot of stuff pinned to you right now. Let’s go through the markets. While we’re doing that, I want you to contemplate, if you would, this chart.

Ten year yields are up two. The dollar is up 18. The S&P 500 is down 20. The VIX is up a little bit. Gold is down eight. Y is down about 20. Silver is down 20. Y is down about 35. Copper is $4.49. Up four. TI is up eight cents. Natural gas, unchanged offer. Bitcoin down 2,200. Heavy. Ethereum is starting to catch some weight now as well. Down 140. Palladium down 10. Platinum down 9. Gold, silver, hovering. Grains are mixed, mildly mixed. That chart, that’s a monthly chart for gold. It’s closed within, looks like, $10 of the previous price for one, two, three, four.

We’re on our fifth month and we finally have pulled away from that area. And you may ask yourself, you may say, well, that’s crazy. It’s being manipulated. And I would say, stop it. Don’t talk like that. But then, because it’s coincidence, look at it on a different timeframe and you won’t get those candles. But then knowing that bureaucratic administrations stick to calendars and knowing that if you have a new high at a new high, you can attract new buying. And knowing that central banks are buying gold and they need to buy more, would it not make sense to have a market hover in that area if you could hover a market in that area? And I know that there’s real selling above.

That’s central bank selling. Not central bank, bullion, sorry, miner selling. And we’re hitting that area right now and maybe rejecting it again, once again, for legitimate reasons. But the question is, why is it holding up if it’s not going up? I know they’re selling above. And so I asked myself, why would it hold up if I know they’re selling up there? Now, the story that I’ve been telling you for almost two years is that bullion banks are now playing less on the short side. They’re more disciplined with their risk, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

But if they’re selling, you’re going to want to make money. You’re going to let it breathe. Why isn’t it breathing? Well, we’re going to explore why. How much more gold do central banks need to buy? That question arises from this question. Why isn’t the market selling off if I know they’re selling above? And I know there’s buying below, but there’s no wicks below at all if you’re looking at it from a chartered point of view. So the $10,000 gold question, 2 trillion, depending on how you look at it, when a market hits all-time highs and then hovers there for four months straight, quietly, almost unnaturally, with hardly a mention in mainstream media while the miners steadily climb, what’s really going on? Is gold being held in place to give central banks time to catch up when they’re buying? Or is it sellers quietly unloading at the strike? It could be both.

Right now, central bank reserves reported through the IMF show gold at just 15% to 20% of their total reserves. But Bank of America and others argue that the optimal level is closer to 30%, actually 35%, but we’re going to stay with 30% here. That leaves a gap, one that translates into somewhere between 14,000 and 18,000 more tons of additional demand, but not all at once, but over time we would assume. And there’s a twist. The higher gold goes, the less notional central banks technically need to buy with that target, but the higher gold goes, the lower their fiat values are going.

So the question is, is gold part of their reserves, or is gold profits used to offset their reserves? Because the reserves will go down in value as countries continue to print. So just reading the paragraph here, Bank of America says central bank portfolios work best when gold makes up 30% of reserve. Today’s holdings are closer to 20% about 36,000 tons. Closing the gap would mean adding roughly 18,000 tons worth around 2 trillion at 3400 an ounce. Whether or not banks move that far, even partial steps would create enormous demand and competition, raising the key question.

The next key question, what event might accelerate the push towards higher allocations or faster allocations? And notice for four months we’re nowhere. So I ask you, you think that’s a coincidence? Related post, VOA 3500 is a new forecast. That’s from March. Gold was trading about 3,000, 3,200 then, and they picked 3,500. We put that there. We re-listed that because that’s where they discuss what I call the efficient frontier for gold ownership. I want you to keep this in mind and back of your head too. The percentage of reserves that a central bank owns has a purpose, but really what you want to look at, if you’re looking at, if you really want to drill down and we haven’t done that yet, you want to look at the percentage of gold reserves relative to GDP.

And that number is fast approaching 5% across European nations. They have suggestions. FX reserves are what you use for your trade, right? But anyway, it’s all related and it’s a collaborative number. NUMA pursues deep cuts to capitalize on once in 50 opportunity. That’s our comment. Seems they want the silver now. That was yesterday. And it seems that they do want the silver. Don’t worry, it’s down to 23 cents. Pushed to raise retirement age beyond 70. Immigration is enough. That’s a UN paper. We promised you that. We broke it down academically. No opinions. Just basically our draw was dropping, looking at it.

But immigration isn’t enough. So you could import a billion people, but they could all be 70 years old or 12 years old and you need working people. And so they’re targeting demographics, not just people. And people keep living longer. It’s all about the ratio, by the way, folks. If you think that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, and it has elements of that. If you think Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, then you care about how many working people you have so you can tax them to pay for the retirement people, the pyramid itself.

And the ratio needs to be around three and a half to four. And in 20 or 30 years, it’ll be one and a half to one. So three and a half to four to one, or four to five to what’s called four to one, four to one. Right now, it’s on a path to one and a half to one. And if you bring, if you add immigration to it, it doesn’t get it anywhere near that. They’re going to raise the retirement age. They may not even say it in certain countries, but it’ll happen.

Goldfix PM, we said that yesterday, data on deck PCE, which is out right now and gold is down 660, the S&P is bouncing. So I’ll leave that up there. And just a quick comment on the charts. I have, we’ve been discussing in the chat. Let me bring this up. The system that I use for short term trading, the Bollinger Band system, let me squeeze this a little bit bigger for you so you can see the dates. Weekly, refresh. Okay, so where are we? We’re here. We don’t care about all those other stuff, these stories I told you, this is where we are right now.

Okay. We’re not going to get a signal this week unless the market rallies $20. So next week, above 34.15 now, was 34.11 now it’s creeping higher 34.15, the market should give us an early indication of one of those breakout situations. So does that mean it’s definitely going up? No, it means it’s a 50-50 chance it’s going up. But if it goes up, it’s probably going to go up a lot higher than you would expect based on previous ranges. And how will it go? Well, it could go if it goes up, that’s 50%.

On those 50% of the times that it goes up, one third of the way will be a spike. And that doesn’t look back, one third of the way will be a spike that pulls back to that level and then goes up again. And the final third is the way that will, it’ll spike and reverse through that level and never look back and go down. So that’s how you have to look at it. The 50% of the time, the market’s going to go up and two thirds of that time, it’s going to go up and stay up.

Well, that’s a pretty good asymmetric bet. And it would risk, it would risk one to make two. So if you were really risky, you would say, I’ll risk it to go to 33.35, which is, you know, 65, $70. And that will mean you’re looking to make $120. So call it, call it 20. It’s sort of weekly. So you could call it 40 to make 80. That’s what I would look at it as. Anyway, so we’re not there yet, right? But we’re looking for sure things. We’re not looking for complete like moron speculations.

All right. I’m Vince. Looks like the data was a non-plus. Walker doesn’t care about it. Let me see. Keeping us on the screen here. Remember, PCE, the Fed loves PCE, but PCE is really implicitly mathematically derived from the other stuff. So I’m looking for it. Bear with me here. I know dead air is bad, but we’re not here for the production value, are we? PCE is July for 0.3, estimated 0.3. Okay. So now if there’s no surprise in the numbers, now the flows will probably go home early is what they’ll probably do.

I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thank you, Vincent. And thank you everyone at home who has joined us here and watches Vince as he breaks down the action in the financial markets on a daily basis, of which I hope was a helpful, enjoyable fun part of your week. Certainly, if you’re logging in live to these calls, we do have a good time in the chat here each morning. So if you haven’t been logging in live at 9 a.m. Eastern each morning, try it out sometime. I think you’ll like it. And just as a little bonus, before we wrap up and you get set for what will hopefully be a safe, wonderful, happy and healthy holiday and Labor Day weekend, I’d like to just thank our kind and proud partners at Fortuna Mining who helped to make Vince’s show possible each day and who also had some interesting success again in the past quarter.

And I know one of the things that many people were concerned about is that when the earnings for the second quarter were released, the stock sold off over 12% on that day. Although just like we’ve talked about in previous quarters, there was quite a rebound at this time. It only took a few days and did get to ask Fortuna CEO Jorge Ganoza about his thoughts on that, because often you see the initial trading pattern somewhat misinterpret some of the results. But here’s a quick word for Jorge what he had to say about that.

We’re seeing a lot of quant algorithm trading, right? Trading on headlines, trading on momentum. We’re seeing a lot of that. And not a lot of investors, no guys who look at or approach investing in a more fundamental way, no institutions. So, you know, it is what it is. It’s a reality. All these momentum trading, algorithm trading, you know, fits on on the headlines and whatnot. But as you well show, no, what happens is that the stock gets sold off and it recovers in the next two, three sessions and it’s becoming a bit of a pattern.

But, you know, as I said in the call, in 20 years, I have never seen Fortuna as a strong and with the growth prospects that we have today. And much like Jorge was just mentioning there, here’s the stock right above the $7 mark prior to the release of the second quarter earnings, then went from just over $7 to down as low as $6.20. And I might add that it is now at $7.45 as of Thursday night. And if we look at the 52-week range, we see it got as high as $7.67. So, again, by all means, do your due diligence.

But just as this is a pattern we’ve seen several times, wanted to point that out and also let you hear what Jorge had to say. And certainly, if you have any questions for Fortuna, you can always go to the contact tab at Fortuna Mining.com and certainly appreciate their support of our show here. I appreciate that they’ve also provided my own personal opinion as a safe investing vehicle for gold investors. Again, obviously, do your own due diligence, although I’d really encourage you to contact Fortuna because a lot of good people there, not just in the investor relations, but throughout the company as I’ve gotten to know a lot of people and whether it’s the trip down to Argentina or going to see their operation there that you just saw in West Africa in Côte d’Ivoire.

It’s really been nice to meet a lot of the different people they have there, see that it’s a quality run operation where there are quality people involved, which is perhaps more important than ever in today’s world. So, in either case, I hope you’re getting set for a wonderful weekend. I hope everyone in Fortuna is also getting set for a great Labor Day weekend. Gee, I hope they do get Monday off there because I’ve seen it. You work hard if you go there, although the people who are working there, I think they really do enjoy it.

And in case you’d like to know more about those results from the second quarter, I will have the link to that one at the end of this call. But again, thank you for being here each day, and I hope you have a wonderful weekend, and we will see you next week. [tr:trw].

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