Yesterday, I went live super early before the CPI print came out. And I nailed it. And it wasn’t that hard to figure out. And around if you go back and look at the video at minutes, six minutes and 14 seconds, I said it was going to come in the inflation data hotter than what we want, right? Or what the Fed wants 2%. But it’s going to come in. Cooler than what the estimates were. And that cooler, even though it’s hotter, it’s it’s hot inflation, it’s 3%, right? Or whatever the exact number is hotter than the 2%.

It’s coming in cooler than these expectations. And they are setting us up for this narrative that they’re going to be able to lower rates that things are getting better. Well, it gets even better than that. Out of market watch, it says Powell testimony on day two, the Fed chief says banks won’t wait for two percent inflation to cut rates. This is exactly what I’ve been telling everyone is going to happen. They’re going to give this little spin this narrative that everything’s better than we thought it’s it’s you know what, we don’t have to wait for the 2% inflation number, which all of us type one, if you agree, inflation is so much higher than 2% or 3%, what they’re telling us right now, that the government is cooking books, they’re not accounting for food, they’re not accounting for energy and all that crap.

And they’re cooking these books. So here we go. Says here, this is out of market watch. Says Powell’s testimony, the Fed chair says elevated inflation isn’t only risk to economy. Says here, the PCA PCE inflation index rules the feds roost. Most Americans are somewhat familiar with the consumer price index, but it’s a less well known inflation rate. Known as the PCE that will determine when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the CPI is used to help determine the cost of living increases in union contracts and Social Security payments, among other things, and has long been viewed as the main barometer of inflation.

I have to be honest with you in type two, if you agree, I’m getting sick entirely all these stupid barometers and all these stupid acronyms. Acronyms just pissed me off. I’ve worked around the government for a long time. That’s all they like to use. The reason why is because it’s intended to confuse you. A bunch of people that went to Coolidge a long time ago, they want to make their mark in this world, come up with all these different acronyms and all these different ways of measuring things. And we can’t just have one way. It’s like the median home price versus the average home price.

It’s like, can we just stick on one so that it’s a little bit easier to figure out? Sorry, I digress, but that’s how I feel. And that’s the sad part about America right now is everyone, when it comes to the economy, is extremely confusing. Because a lot of the basic stuff wasn’t taught on purpose when it comes to economics in our school system. And that’s intended to, for a reason, to confuse you so that you don’t see the booms in the bus. It says here, yet the Fed actually prefers what is officially known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or the PCE.

We look at different measures, but for a quarter of a century, the PCE inflation has been the Fed’s goal, Powell said. We define our goal in terms of that, we believe it is the better measure of the cost of inflation. My gosh, I have dry mouth. Hold on. This is so awkward. Let me go get my water. Oh my gosh, this is awkward. Sorry, I didn’t expect to leave you guys, but… It’s water. It’s dry. It says here, he says we define our goal in terms of that, the PCE, because we believe that it is a better measure of the cost of inflation that the public faces.

The CPI was running at 3.1% yearly pace as of June, but the PCE was tracking at 2.6%. Isn’t that better? How do you feel? Type 3, if you feel better, that the PCE is at 2.6%. Let’s see if we got any 3’s, stand by. Nope, no 3’s. Type 4, if all you see is inflation all around you, everything from your Home Depot store, to going to the grocery store, to going to the gas station. Just, let me just see if we, oh, weird. We’re getting, oh, Neil’s going crazy. He’s typing for that crazy. Point being is, inflation’s everywhere, and the government’s lying to you.

That’s weird. It’s almost like having to listen to Biden and Harris all the time. The CPI was running at 3.1%, like I said, but the other’s at 2.6%. As of the 12 months ending in May, putting it closer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The PCE differs from the CPI in three major ways. It puts less weight on housing costs. That’s nice. It measures healthcare costs more comprehensively, and it takes into account changes in consumer behavior when prices rise. You know, everyone needs to be very concerned of the way the consumer reacts. See, the government’s telling you, don’t worry about how the consumer reacts.

We shouldn’t take that into account. Well, let me give you an example. Before the whole world shut down, I went down and I bought me some good old-fashioned rolls of toilet paper. Me and, oh, this is part of mine. Why? Because I used to study, because I’ve been preparing for this inflation wave since 2012, and all the cycle charts led right to it, monetary chart, all that kind of crap, right? And I went and bought toilet paper ahead of time because it’s the one item that during a hyperinflationary event, it goes out of control.

People go and run down and go grab it. Why? Because it’s the one thing everyone needs. And number two, it’s the biggest package that you could go rolling out with the least amount of money going, I did something. And that’s human behavior. If you don’t study human behavior, you’re not going to know how to prepare or what to expect. That’s why I’ve been preparing everyone for a housing crash. As a matter of fact, I’m going to put a link to a video I did. It’s getting so little play. It’s crazy, but we actually edited and took some time with it.

And I show you the housing market quadrant cycle chart and why and where we are right now in that cycle and what’s going to happen next because of human behavior. So I’ll put a link down to that. And then I’ll also put an 80% off link to the mortgage master. If you want to start getting ready that where banks actually don’t say no to you like they did to everybody in 2007, 2008, 2009. I want people ready. So if you want it, 80% off down there. All right. So that’s why we have to actually focus on human behavior type five.

If you agree that you don’t believe the Fed, you don’t give a crap what they say. And we actually do need to take a look at how humans behave. So we know how to pivot. So like it says, it takes into account changes in the consumer behavior when prices rise. Let’s say that the price of steak grows a lot, but not the price of ground beef. A consumer might buy more ground beef at a lower cost. The sort of products substitution can help keep overall inflation down. No, that’s a line of crap. If I want a steak, I’m going to get a steak.

And if it costs me more, inflation’s there. So if there’s a bunch of people that want to bow out and go, hey, I’ve got to go buy ground beef because I’m poor now, because the government overstimulated the economy, overprinted money, the inflation’s still there. They’re just wanting you to understand they’re trying to trick you. It’s like a wordsmithing situation. All right. Now, the cool thing is this isn’t time to get what we should all be pissed off, but you should also be excited. You see, because it’s not just you. It’s not just me. It’s everybody in the country having to deal with this.

Poor, poor people, wealthier people. Everyone is dealing with inflation. All right. Now I get it that people with a lot more money, they still have plenty of money to go buy steaks. But in the end, they are saving less. Right. But let’s focus on the middle class, not on the wealthy class, because the middle class is what runs the vote. The middle class is what runs the economy, because they are the bulk of the money. Think of them as the median home price. Right. It’s the most important home price metric to look at because it’s where most of the homes, the value, dwell in the country.

So it’s the same thing with the middle class. Does that make sense? Type 6 if it does. All right. Here we go. All right. Here we go. So here’s the part that’s really important. The Fed says they won’t wait to cut interest rates until inflation hits 2%. So they’re going to do this. They’re going to do this. And it’s funny because somebody made a comment the other day when I was talking about when I believe they’re going to cut. They say, well, Ninja, you don’t know what you’re talking about because the Fed doesn’t even meet that month.

All right. Let’s make this real clear. The Fed doesn’t have to meet to cut rates or raise rates. They’re called emergency meetings. They’re out of sorts. There are times when they go, you know what, we have to act now. We’re not going to wait for a stupid meeting. So to whoever commented that, you think real smart. History has proven that the Fed has rose rates, risen rates, and lowered rates times there weren’t an official meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated the bank won’t wait until the rate of U.S. inflation slows to its 2% goal before it cuts rates.

You won’t, or sorry, he says, you don’t want to wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, he said. If you waited that long, you probably waited too long because inflation will be moving downward and go well below 2000, which we don’t want. So look at what Jerome Powell just said to you right now. He wants to make sure your destruction, the purchasing power of your currency stays at 2%. You see, that’s an interesting number. It came up in New Zealand. I can’t pronounce that country. A while back in the 80s, they figured out 2% was a great number.

What they didn’t tell you is they know that at 2% human behavior. This is the most important thing you can take away today from this video. They’re studying human behavior. If we destroy their currency, the purchasing power, at 3%, it’s going to get nutty. They’re going to figure it out. We’re destroying this stuff. But if we do it at 2%, what happens is over the long term, over the long term, their houses slowly tick up, the stock market slowly ticks up. They feel richer even though everyone will say, man, I remember 10 years ago when I was a kid, gasoline was this much.

I remember anything was less, right? But you don’t realize you’re being robbed of your purchasing power. So if you keep your money in a savings account and inflation’s at 2%, you don’t get it. You’re like, my money is making no money in the savings account. The destruction of purchasing power is happening at 2%. I still don’t get it. People don’t get it. But if it’s any higher than that, that’s bad. If it’s any lower than that, it’s bad for the banks, really bad for the banks. They want to destroy your life little by little. It is the greatest scheme ever.

When I started this channel three years ago, I said there is a day coming soon that everyone, your family, your friends, the people you go to church with, the people you work with, they’re all going to become experts in inflation. Meaning that they’re going to go from not having a stinking clue about what inflation is. Because the last inflationary wave happened so long ago, back in the late 70s into 1980, 81, they’re going to all of a sudden know what inflation is. And they’re going to know why, because of social media and mainstream media. And we’re there now.

But the sad thing is what people don’t realize, we’re about to move into hyperinflation. I’ve said this over and over again. Please hear me. Type 8 if you understand this, if you get this. There’s been four times, I go over this in my real estate cycles course and other ones, I’ve actually done some videos on this specifically here showing some charts. Four times since 1972 and the Fed starts raising rates, right, aggressively. There’s a point where they drop rates for a little bit. They go, it’s time to drop rates. And they’ll do it 50, 75, maybe even 100 basis points.

It’ll go up and it’ll come down a little bit. Then what happens, they go, oh, it was a knee-jerk reaction, it was too soon, we didn’t get under control. Because what happens is, as inflation’s going up, human behavior, people are like, please stop it, please stop it, we want you to stop inflation. And they’re raising rates. And then as they raise rates, everything gets expensive, right? And then they go, stop raising rates, stop raising rates. And enough time has passed where they forgot why the Fed was raising rates in the first place. And what they do is, okay, we’re going to drop rates.

And they drop rates really sharp for just a handful of months. Usually never last past six months of these lower rates. And all of a sudden, inflation comes back with a vengeance. And it starts screaming higher. And the reason why is because so many people on Wall Street, so many in the stock market, so many people on Main Street buying homes, they dove back into the debt markets, because they said, rates are cheap, we’re refinancing, we’re buying cars, we’re paying off debt, we’re doing all this stuff. And then inflation goes, whoa, and it takes off.

And the measured move in all four of those instances was as inflation roars up along with rates, and then they drop down for a little bit, the measured move is almost a doubling, 100% higher in the rates and inflation on that second wave up. I know I don’t have all these fancy charts for you, I can only explain it to you to the best of my ability, but this is reality. We’re going to see a mini bout of hyperinflation, nothing like Weimar, nothing like Venezuela, Turkey, any of those situations. But I believe that you’re going to see real inflation in the 20 percentile, like 2021, maybe 23%.

Official government numbers will show inflation around 13% at that time. This is going to happen in the next couple of years. I have been explaining this move that the Fed’s about to make, lowering rates a couple times, maybe three at most, three times. That’s all they’re going to get is three, 25 basis point cuts, trying to get you to believe they’re going to deceive you into what the current president did, the guy that can barely, he can’t even change his own clothes, that he made a good thing, vote that way. Because they’re scared to death of having their charter, I’m talking about the Fed, pulled by the other guy, Trump.

I would highly suggest, I think everyone that’s watched the video that I came out with, that YouTube’s not one to trade, I’ve got a link down below and I’ll put in the comment section, it’s the housing cycles video. We edited it, we spent some time with it. It’s going to show you a lot based off of history, what’s coming in the housing market and exactly where we are now. I’ll put the link down there. If you want 80% off the mortgage master course links down there too, and then you’ll be ready and you’ll be laughing.

You’ll be laughing all the way to the bank and walking out of the bank because so many people and that’s the thing, it’s so simple, it’s stupid. The reason why Booms and Bus happen is because it’s the ability or inability for the mass public to be able to access debt, to be able to use credit cards, mortgages, car payments. That’s what either causes those asset classes to explode because tons of people have the available ability to get debt or then they collapse because all of a sudden nobody can get it. So do you want to be ready for it? That’s the question.

I hope you guys have a great day. The economic ninja, I’m going fishing, is out. [tr:trw].

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