➡ The dollar index has been declining since Trump’s new chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Myron, started implementing his plan to restructure the global trading system. This has affected gold and silver prices, which have been rising. Silver futures have broken through the $43 level and gold futures have set a new all-time record high above $3700. The rise in gold and silver prices is attracting new buyers who are looking for wealth preservation and a safe place to put their money.
➡ The article discusses the significant increase in the value of GDX, GDXJ, and SIL silver miners index since the start of their respective rallies. It also mentions the rise in the value of silver juniors and the potential for gold to surpass its inflation-adjusted record high. The author suggests investing in gold for wealth preservation and diversification. The article also touches on the role of silver in solar power, with a prediction that solar power in China will soon exceed all other electricity sources in the U.S. Lastly, it mentions First Majestic Silver’s successful year and their recent exploration results.

More overtly public would be the destruction of the dollar index, which I might add was over 110, a couple of weeks before Trump finally took over. Then, after Trump took over with his new chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, who in November of 2024, aka last year, wrote a 41-paper hand, titled a user’s hand guide on how to restructure the global trading system. So, Myron wrote that paper in November of 2024, then in December of 2024. Trump names him his chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, and we’ve had Michael McNair and others explain these signs that the plan laid out by Myron before he then became the chair are being implemented.

And there you can see the dollar index responding forcefully. It had popped back up about a month ago, although now it’s getting clobbered again, down below 97, 12-13% from the peak, which obviously has a fair amount to do with gold and silver pricing, although another thing that I think has a lot to do with gold and silver pricing at this particular time, something I mentioned briefly last week, but this was pretty wild. Well, hello there, my friends. Chris Marcus here with you for Arcadia Economics, and it may look a little different today as I am traveling and under a new lighting setup, although the gold and silver markets have not stopped, so we will get you some gold and silver news today, and we will start with the pricing.

Now, I’m recording on Monday night, about 8 p.m. Eastern, although as you can see here, silver futures have broken again through the $43 level. That did happen briefly last week, although went back through there more decisively, as they may say in the industry, and you can see here that new high, at least this cycle, is $43.24, so not too far off that, and certainly silver continuing to rally, and as we’ll get to, part of that is amazingly enough, by more tariff uncertainty, I’m a little confused myself on how this is still unsettled yet nonetheless, we will have a note coming up on that, and some other good news that I’m sure Monday afternoon into evening, you’re probably smiling about because they’re the gold futures above $3700, also setting another new all-time record high, like it’s not also, silver did not set a new all-time record high, but gold did, and you see the futures new record is three pennies under $3721, pretty exciting stuff, and you can see, I’ll bet that was right around there, and now at $3717, so certainly does seem as if the markets, I guess we’re past the point of sniffing at rate cuts that are coming, we’ll take a look at those probabilities in a moment as well, but gold certainly responding well to everything that’s going on, and there is quite a lot going on, we haven’t talked as much about the bricks this year, but you know Vince Lancy mentioned that on Monday’s morning show, some of their plans with gold, and I do feel that these things are still happening behind the scenes, even if they are less overtly public, as has felt has been the case this year, although more overtly public would be the destruction of the dollar index, which I might add was over 110, a couple of weeks before Trump finally took over, then after Trump took over with his new chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, who in November of 2024, aka last year, wrote a 41 paper entitled a user’s hand guide on how to restructure the global trading system, so Myron wrote that paper in November of 2024, then in December of 2024, Trump names him his chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and we’ve had Michael McNair and others explain these signs that the plan laid out by Myron before he then became the chair are being implemented, and there you can see the dollar index responding forcefully, it had popped back up about a month ago, although now is getting clobbered again down below 97, 12, 13% from the peak, which obviously has a fair amount to do with gold and silver pricing, although another thing that I think has a lot to do with gold and silver pricing at this particular time, something I mentioned briefly last week, but this was pretty wild.

Here’s Daniel Galli of TD Securities and talks about seven months and four months, and basically what we are getting at there is that they were saying that at the current pace of ETF inflows, that the LBMA was on track to see the free-floating inventories run into a problem within seven months, but at the historical pace of inflows in a cutting cycle, that would be reduced to four months, which I think is quite a statement. Now, again, do I think that four or seven months would I put that as a timeline and expect fireworks by then? I don’t know that I’d bet the farm on that yet to the degree, and I’m working on, seeing if I can get in touch with Daniel.

He’s on the banking level, and I’m just a YouTuber solar analyst here, but I don’t know exactly all of the factors he’s looking at, but that’s just interesting to see that he’s coming up with these calculations, making them public, which I would say in that suggests that the situation is not entirely ideal, so either case could be months away from an issue. Fortunately, we also have some commentary from Robert Gottlieb, the former J.P. Morgan precious metals managing director. This is what I mentioned, how there are new concerns of tariffs on silver, and we’ll read this where he mentions, we are still waiting for, that’s the section 232 report, to come out on silver and whether silver as a critical metal will be subject to tariffs despite its monetary status and gold being exempt last week.

And then he mentions how the EFP premiums are still high, lower than they were, but have still elevated even though they’ve come in. And again, I’m surprised that there’s confusion when they were already exempted. Gold had already been exempted, yet my thoughts aside, we at least have an… The markets do seem concerned, whether I think they should or not, and certainly I imagine not an easy time to be running a business with all these things that are happening there. Although on the retail gold level, interesting comment from my friend Brian Kuzmar down here in Florida.

Brian owns commercial rare coins in Lauderdale by the sea. And he mentioned since last week, my company’s sales have been building for physical gold, more retail new buyers, mostly larger buying 100 ounce plus deals, and mostly wealth preservation concerns when he says, why now? They simply reply, wealth preservation and nowhere else comfortable to put the money. I think that makes a lot of sense. Now, if you’ve been investing in gold and silver for a while, are you at a rush to buy at 36, 3700 on gold or $40 plus on silver? I think one of the nice things is that for most of you who’ve been watching this show for a couple of years, you probably have been purchasing some metal at some point or maybe even consistently along the way, which, you know, should I buy gold or silver? Yeah, you probably should have done it a couple years ago would be the simple answer yet.

Let’s say you’re sitting there within a state of 10 to $30 million and you’re looking at what’s going on in the world and some of the choices out there, especially with, you know, I get stocks are at an all time high and gold’s at an all time high. So that could apply to both yet. We’ll just go back to the data. My opinion, what does that matter? Let’s get what the people who are actually putting their money on the table are doing. And he’s saying, Brian’s saying wealth preservation. As far as silver, not seeing the same in silver yet, which makes sense because, you know, just in the same way we’ve seen that on the institutional level, first into gold and then into silver, first into the gold stocks, then finally came into the silver stocks.

And we’ll, we’ll take a look at how the stocks have done recently. Um, so not seeing that as much on the silver side, although one note, Brian does have excellent pricing. In fact, uh, every time I’ve talked with him, he is able to beat the online dealers and just about anything outside of a fire sale that I’ve seen out there. So anyone needs help getting in touch with Brian or needs a quote on anything, you can always email me at chris at arcadeyeconomics.com and happy to put you in touch with him and see if it is indeed the case that he can get you a great price on what you’re looking at.

And with that said, let’s take a look. This was Monday’s sub stack column at gold and silver, daily.substack.com. And I was thinking about the mining stocks because if you have any mining stock portfolio, you’ve probably been smiling a little bit in the recent weeks. So I was curious how much they’ve actually gone up. Here is the GDX and on the first in the sequence of all these charts are marked from July 30th when things really took off. Here’s a GDX from low of 51 37 up to 70 in the past month and a half.

Here you go over the past, uh, since the beginning of the rally, you have from 25 57 up to 70. So GDX up 2.75 X since the beginning of the rally. Here is the GDXJ since the end of July 63 up to 91. So those are some nice moves here. Five year GDXJ chart here. It’s gone from 30, almost 31 up to 91. So 2.96 X similar picture with silver. Here is the SIL silver miners index 47 up to 67 in the last month and a half. Since the beginning of last year, it’s gone from 22 half up to 67.

So that’s a 2.98 X multiple. And then the silver juniors, which had the biggest day on day up 3.42% since July have gone from about 14 half up to 21 and then a seven 80 last January up to 21 18 as of now. So finally seeing the, well, I mean, we’ve been seeing the stocks moving for a little while, but certainly that move is accelerating and hopefully you’ve been benefiting from that. In other news, we see Bloomberg reporting a lot of stories like gold surpasses inflation adjusted record high set in 1980.

Now this is being marked to the CPI inflation. So it gets to a real inflation rate. We probably would not yet be at a new record high because that level would be a lot higher than where we are though. Okay. Given the Trump administration still ongoing desire to devalue the dollar. It might not be far off before we get there. Um, I did just add all of these authors. So I get their alerts and can keep track of all the things that they’re sending out. But I mean, it’s last week Bloomberg was talking about silver scarcity.

This week, gold surpasses inflation adjusted record high. Okay. And interesting that people are starting to buy after it’s surpassed the all time record high. Although I think again, when Brian, uh, mentioned that wealth preservation, I think obviously there’s a size time and a place yet. If someone had no gold and they put 10 to 20% in the portfolio as a long-term investment for wealth preservation, I’m not your financial advisor, but I think just for diversification alone, let alone the way the world looks, I think that’s a pretty reasonable and conservative thing to do.

Especially if we continue to see stories like this, you know, it’s maybe one day silver will pass its all time CPI inflation adjusted high. Although in terms of silver, this was interesting. Here’s last week’s COT report. And you can see the banks about 45,000 contracts short added a little bit on the rally over the past week, leading up to September 9th, but not a big increase in the short position. Uh, gold, the banks were actually reducing their short position. And here’s a quick look. This green line at the bottom is the silver short position, which here was the all time record high from just a couple months ago at 54,388 contracts.

Let’s give you a 10 year look so you can see this in context. Yeah, right there. That was the new all time record. Clipsing the previous all time record set back in July of 2016 when silver went from 14 to $21 last time it broke the $20 mark until after COVID in July of 2020. So few final notes before we wrap up, uh, in terms of silver Yilan must mentioning solar power in China will exceed all sources of electricity combined in the USA in three to four years. Wake up call. And obviously we know there’s a lot of silver going into those solar panels.

Although one thing that I did touch on in the silver report, which is now released and the link is in the description field below. I think people have been enjoying that and you can get your copy. It’s a free report. You don’t have to pay anything. And I think it was good. I hope you like it. I’ve heard others have. So if you haven’t done so already, go click on that link in the description field and download it because, uh, as I was going to say, one of the things that’s been going on with solar, and I know some people are upset with the silver Institute numbers, although there is a lot of thrifting continuing to go on.

So solar, there was growth and you are using the panels with more silver in them. Although they’re learning how to do those with less silver. So these are just the factors that combine. And anyway, there’s a section that covers exactly that section that covers geopolitics and the fed, where now we see a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut outside chance of 50 would be a bit of a surprise. It would be a fun day on Wednesday if we did get 50 basis points yet looks like market expecting 96. And with that said, we’ll get ready to wrap up here.

Although I did want to thank first majestic silver who kindly sponsored today’s video and has been having quite a nice year, especially as they have incorporated gatos into their portfolio and seen a nice run up in their stock price, which I know helps especially all the people who are invested in first majestic. And last week they did announce additional exploration report results at their last gatos project. And in case you missed this last year when the deal went down Keith Neumeier CEO first majestic mentioning major driver for acquiring last gatos was the district’s significant exploration upside and the latest drilling results reinforced that potential.

And I’ll take a show you a quick look here here you have the 711 grams per ton silver equivalent over eight meters at the video that walks through the results and gives you an idea of what they came back with the link to this press release also in the description field below. Although if you’d like to hear me read you the highlights, well, just click on the video that is coming your way now. [tr:trw].

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