➡ The gold and silver markets are experiencing a significant drop due to large-scale selling. This is being driven by a group of traders known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), who are known for their predictable behavior and significant influence on the market. They are currently selling off stocks, causing a ripple effect across other markets, including precious metals. However, this could create opportunities for investors once the CTAs start buying again.
➡ The article discusses the current state of the market, focusing on the impact of tariffs and the behavior of gold and silver. It highlights that President Trump is not backing down on tariffs, which while financially bearish for metals, are bullish indicators for gold and silver. The article also mentions that the gold and silver markets are in a sell-off phase, with banks buying and locking in losses. Lastly, it suggests that the market is likely to continue this trend unless an event drives them higher.

The gold and silver markets are in the intermediate leg of a sell-off. Macro discretionary has been selling, taking profits to bullion banks that have been buying, locking in losses. But a little bit of a snowball effect has started and that has driven the metals below levels that they have not been in a while on their way to moving averages that we have not seen in a while. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancy and today’s market rundown, gold and fixed market rundown. We will be talking about the CTA wildebeest. They are back. They are driving the market starting yesterday. They’re in the driver’s seat. They may be driving the car off a cliff, but they are in the driver’s seat. You were saying macro discretionary was selling and bullion banks were buying. What’s up with that? Well, we cracked the level yesterday that we had held a couple other days and CTAs are a big reason for that.

And surprisingly, they don’t hate the metals. They hate the stocks. We’ll get into what that means in a second. But there you go. That’s what we’re going to talk about. There’s the front page. Founders have some, we have some pretty connected people and founders and one of them is in Asia and he’s helped us out with Taiwan in the past as well as Syria. And he put together a piece that we wanted to share with everyone. The Coming Altitude Accord and that’s a geopolitical post. Nothing too controversial, but something very insightful.

I think we also posted it zero hedge and we think they gave it some love. So we’re happy for that. There’s the rest of the page. You know the drill. You can look at that while we go through the markets. Tenure yields are unchanged at 426 dollars. One of seven thirty four up four after being very strong yesterday. Yes, to be five hundred fifty eight seventy seven bouncing nine handles. The VIX is twenty one unchanged offered. VIX gold is twenty eight fifty five down twenty one silver is thirty one dollars down seventeen.

Again, gold’s underperforming when they’re going to sell off and silver is well that’s because you have some funds some funds that are unwinding a spread copper for fifty down three cents WTI sixty nine sixty five down seventy cents not gas three ninety seven down seven cents Bitcoin eighty five eighty spot five hundred down four grand palladium nine fifteen down two bucks platinum nine forty two down five bucks gold silver stable ninety two ish soy corn wheat ten twenty four sixty seven five sixty seven up almost two up less than one up four and a half.

All right, let’s get to it. A quick reference wildebeest what are the wildebeest well it’s a term that we use to characterize to describe the CTA cohort of traders financial traders purely financial traders in commodities. They also happen to trade everything but what are CTA’s essentially they are the old school retail cohort combined into one contingency so they become like future traders managed money at a smaller level so doctors and lawyers stereotypically that used to call on their phone and say buy me gold well now they’re CTA their commodity trading advisor buys and sells gold for them usually algorithmically we have been CTA’s for a very brief period of time there’s too much regulatory stuff for us to go through and we did it and it just it was too much too time consuming so we just went back to managing money as a trader.

All right, so why am I bringing that up well CTA’s those of you that have been subscribing for years now know that CTA’s can be very significant drivers of price in the short and intermediate term and we’ve written about them frequently because in the past in gold and silver they were the biggest players because no one cared about the metals right and so you can see some of the stories that we’ve written about the thing about CTA’s is when we wrote about them we were remarkably correct because it was easy for us to see the behavioral trend and what it would do to the market so for example the couple examples here could be the biggest buy season ever analysis that was in August of 24 right you know the market was already in a good place and we said well you know buy season could be huge this year and buy season from which starts in October right from October through December it was massive now it wasn’t because of the CTA’s it was because the CTA’s were part of it very important CTA pre-sell season same idea same idea this is you know you want to be long gold coming out of sell season which was October so there you go the word there it is silver CTA’s dumb as stampeding wildebeest herd now if you look at the date of this May 15 2022 we said the CTA’s are going to drive this lower and it drove the market lower for you know it was months before it stopped they were actually making money being short and when it reversed it was reversing I think in October which was buy season and that was when India showed their hand as the big buyer of silver anyway the point is CTA’s are very predictable in their behavior and in big markets they really don’t affect direction much but they will add a little fuel to the fire in markets that nobody cares about which is basically precious metals until two years ago they were the market when they got in the market why not when they got out the market went down and nothing stopped them the banks were giggling making money off of them probably at the time I know that we used to in options okay but gold and silver became mature real markets and CTA’s I haven’t talked about them in a while why am I talking about them now well they’re really long and they’re really long stocks and they’re panicking on stocks right now and if they panic on stocks remember their wildebeest they panic on everything they just run to the exits on everything and that’s what I think we’re seeing now let me get into that so there there’s the there’s the preamble yesterday zero hedge put a story out late in the day entitled partially entitled Morgan Stanley Warren’s selling panic trigger CTA liquidations and as I was scanning that story I saw one of those whisker charts or contingency charts and let me just power I’m heavily paraphrasing from them here yesterday Trump stirred the pot early with clarification on his tariff comments from yesterday which he explained were in no way dovish that said the peso the luna the yuan and the euro reeling which hit stocks and hit the metals as correlations became front and center in financial markets continuing from the article they noted with the S&P falling below the 50 day moving average and 100 day moving average since but more importantly the short term CTA trigger level of 6045 trend following CTAs which were max long stocks could start selling and that little chart there those of you familiar with our work know that we will look at these very closely when it comes to commodities specifically gold and for me oil we don’t get them in silver that much but the good news is we have one of them today for silver all right so what does what do equities have to do with metals well as it turns out plenty CTA long exposure to commodities has almost been entirely in metals and they got even longer over the last month as we saw the market rally when panic sets it in one sector in this case equities it becomes wholesale panic as leveraged retail players CTAs move to cash and everything ultimately this creates opportunities for bowls and stocks and metals but not an energy usually too but not before they actually re-enter getting short the other way now stocks is harder to pick the turnaround but metals it’s like they’re long they’re puking they’re puking they’re puking and then they say oh let’s get short and they get short and that’s the bottom like they’re the retailers of the retail the last time they did this in a big way meaning got short not gotten out but got short wasn’t 22 and it was pronounced in silver you’ll frequently if you listen on Sundays you’ll frequently hear us call about fishhooks well a fishhook usually accompanies these types of behavior so the two things that will stop this market from selling off now are if they get short or if a central bank steps in and says you know what i think i want to buy this level and they did buy uh yesterday but they have more to buy now we’re going to go more into that in premium but i want to blow this chart up to give you an over the last month okay they were long precious metals they got longer okay and by the way light green to dark green it’s it means that they’re butting up against their max okay energy 35 billion 31 billion and why is it darker well it’s darker because they really got heavily long and natural gas this is like they wrote they actually got short oil and long natural gas base metals short 14 billion to long 12 that’s a huge swing and that means some of that money went into silver we have plenty more detailed charts to go into we fortunately uh got access to one of those reports are going to share that at the end but between now and then let’s get back to the stories all right news and analysis gold funds take profits bank banks lock in losses that’s right that’s what’s happening macro soul taking profits banks bought taking losses and now you have another contingency that is uh selling and that’s the ctas are selling questions are the macro going to buy from the ctas remember they did before i don’t know that they’re going to do that again it’s possible geopolitics the coming yalta to core we mentioned michael oliver and allister mccloud to re-mention as we have it at the top here goldfix will host michael oliver to discuss silver gold stocks bonds and the current events with a live q&a for founders sunday 2 p.m now where are we there we are special football edition for those of you in the know goldfix p.m and let’s move on again market news here’s the news that drove everything yesterday u.s plans next week to impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from china over its role in the fentanyl trade i meant to say over 25 uh and move forward with 25 tariffs on products from canada and mexico president trump said thursday setting up a pivotal week for his protectionist trade agenda they really do hate this guy don’t they um the china move slated to take effect tuesday along with canada and mexico actions actions doubles up on the previous 10 percent okay in just i think this is important right because i think going forward uh i don’t think he’s going to bluff on these in february when he announced on saturday the february tariff and then on monday he he didn’t back off right they backed off but really was a mutual back off on monday the stock market came in cratering oil came in stronger and gold came in weaker but nothing crazy and when you look at oil when you look at stocks at the as the president of the united states those are the barometer for whether you should or should do something so stocks creating oil spiking and he wants weak he wants lower oil he wants high stocks and he wants a weaker dollar it was not good right so so whatever mexico and canada said that they would do he said fine that’s done i’ll hold off for a month i’ll give you a month of a look and he gave them a month you know and everybody thinks it’s over he’s not going to be any tariffs and i’m one of those uh but there’s a piece of the calculus that that was missed and that is the meeting with putin in ryad potentially uh and um over the ukraine european situation is a big face off for him and he can’t be seen to go into it weak and so march fourth he’s like guess what a month is up not only am i going to do 25% tariffs on mexico and canada i’m going to 25% tariffs on europe and i’m going to do another 25% tariffs on china and then i’ll throw another 10% on top he’s really showing that he’s not messing around whether he is or not i don’t care the point is the markets say we think he’s not messing around you know he also made some crazy statement they seem crazy but he’s just being tough you know he said about the ukraine war either it will end soon or it won’t end you know that’s he’s he’s he’s getting ready for the meeting with put and and you’ll note that even though he’s announced there will be one he hasn’t announced the date and my guess is he will announce a date uh that he wants to do it when putin is on the lows if you can imagine it all right so there are the other stories moving on data on deck uh pce today very important it’s 8 10 now it’s probably going to be up by the time you see this let’s go through a summary and a final market check now uh for summary purposes the gold and silver markets are in the intermediate leg of a sell-off macro discretionary has been selling taking profits to bullion banks that have been buying locking in losses but a little bit of a snowball effect has started and that has driven the metals below levels that they have not been in a while on their way to moving averages that we have not seen in a while this is in due course when you have commodity trading advisors selling uh also booking profits as we head into the neutral part of the year expect this to continue unless there’s an event to drive them higher especially since trump is not backing off on tariffs now while tariffs are financially bearish for metals it causes people to run for the exits the dollar strong correlation snap back in place they are unmitigated bullish indicators for gold and silver fundamentally why because i don’t care if you tariff metals are not really you can’t tariff metals but another conversation if you tariff metals or not if you don’t tariff metals and i’m a foreign country dealing with the u.s and they’re throwing tariffs out there i’m a buyer of gold because i need to get out of my dollars because tariffs don’t work if you don’t own dollars so tariffs accelerate de-dollarization all right enough with that was a long summary right okay so here we go starting with gold there’s your daily it looks like we have this is this is why i wrote 27 this is a moving average uh that i kind of threw in there a couple days ago a week ago about so i think we have a destiny i think we have a date with 2770 right 2870 2770 excuse me um if you want to be here my two levels right here’s my two levels right i’m not considering being bullish until we get above 2892 and that would be for a short-term trade i want to see how it acts there and as long as we stay under there i believe that this market is range bound with the bottom down here so i’m bearish you know i’m bearish right now but i’m not sure because i’m bullish genetically right so this area cracked you could say this is an area and maybe it is uh but i’m not going to play it that way expect another week or two of this at least silver silver is going to deceive you right now because it’s going to hold up relative to gold and if you think that’s a reason to be bullish you could be right but i would say you’re crazy i think it’s just basically hedge funds saying oh let’s close our gold shorts and let’s close our gold longs and buy our silver shorts back so that’s what’s happening i want to see um i want to see the open interest here’s what i want to see for me to be start looking at the bottom i want to see the open interest in gold go up as the market’s going down i want to see the open interest in silver go up as the market’s going down that means someone is stepping in saying i’ll catch that knife right new new long skin right and it also means shorts are getting it like cta is going oh we want to sell and it’s down five percent you know that’s how that works so i want to see uh open interest go up in a down move so a day a couple days three days in a row who knows but that’s it absent my fantasy if news items come out uh then i’ll be ready to trade on it so you can see silver’s already messing around with the moving averages again right remember the 200 day moving average was the support last time i mean it didn’t look like support but it was on a weekly basis it would it would hug it and for gold it was the 100 day moving average right that’s where we stop there so there you have it that’s that’s that’s my take on it have a great weekend you’re in the right place catch you later well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince lancey we sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again next week please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching
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