➡ The discussion revolves around the potential for silver’s price to reach $35,000. Initially, the reasons given for this were negative, such as hyperinflation or a global financial crisis. However, after questioning, it was acknowledged that positive factors, like new technologies or a shift in asset perception, could also drive up the price. The conversation highlights the importance of considering all possibilities and not being biased towards negative outcomes.

➡ After a post-election sell-off, the market bounced back, surprising many. Despite some hot money leaving, the price remains stable at $2700. Silver’s situation is more complex, with continued selling expected. Meanwhile, Fortuna Mining updated their mineral reserves and resources for their Seguel mine, reporting significant amounts of gold. They continue to drill, targeting extensions at both Kingfisher and Sunbird.

IAG Commodities Outlook is now for 2025, quoting them from metals. We believe gold will hit new record highs in 2025. Central banks are set to continue to ease monetary policy and there could be a move to safe haven assets due to an escalation in trade tensions. We also believe that central banks will remain strong buyers of gold as they look to diversify their reserves. Welcome to the morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone at Vince Lancing.

Today’s market rundown, we’re going to discuss three topics if I can do it right. The first is we’re going to expose ChatGPT’s complete bias using silver as an example. Second, we’re going to talk a little bit about the ING commodity outlook for 2025. And third, the news yesterday was about the COMEX spreads blowing out as covered by Bloomberg. We’re going to give you what that’s about as well as why it was covered with a hat tip to Bob Coleman for, you know, seeing the EFP moves before anyone else did. And if you’re wondering why Bloomberg didn’t credit him, because Bloomberg isn’t interested in what he had to say.

Bloomberg’s only interested in making Trump look bad. Trump’s making the price of silver gold go up. See, that’s why they did it. But staying, staying on topic, we’re going to go through the mechanics so that you can see I have, I have a COMEX futures on the right. They’re delayed. I don’t like delayed, but I’m not going to pay for their data when I get it on my trading platform. Okay, so let’s get to it. 10 year yields are up 3 at 430. 10663 is the price for the dollar up 1. SB 560, 72, down 5 almost 6.

Vix is 1370, up 13. Gold is 2709, down 8. Change Silver is 3178, down 11. These are spot prices. Copper is 422, up a penny. WTI is 7052, up 11. Natural gas 317, down 3. Bitcoin 100 spot. 91,100, 100,000 spot 910. Ethereum is 39, 28, up 94. Palladium is 975, down 6. Platinum 936 down 2 and change. Gold. Silver is basically unchanged. Grains are weaker. Soy 997 unchanged. Offered corn 434 offered unchanged and I’m sorry, wheat is up a couple, couple cents. There’s the home page. Silver’s time to shine comes in 2025. Making sense of Syria and lower left hand side breaking.

It was a breaking story. Trump tariff potential risks, I should say shake gold and silver markets. That’s an original story by us Citing the Bloomberg story and paraphrasing it in content. All right, number one, IAG commodities outlook is out for 2025. Quoting them for metals. We believe gold will hit new record highs in 2025. Central banks are set to continue to ease monetary policy and there could be a move to safe haven assets due to an escalation in trade tensions. We also believe that central banks will remain strong buyers of gold as they look to diversify their reserves.

All in all this, this commodity outlook, nothing really revelatory or new for gold for us but the people reading it, it’s new to them. We are informed. Hopefully that continues in premium next exposing chat. No, let’s do the breaking. Let’s do the Trump thing first. Let’s do the tariff thing. All right, so here’s the story. Breaking Trump tariff risks Shake gold and silver markets. Now Bloomberg did a story yesterday and I have a picture of that. Let me scroll down to it. Trump tariff risks Royal gold and silver as New York prices jump. They’re only talking about gold and silver because gold and silver going up is bad.

And if Trump is making gold and silver go up, then he’s bad. And so tariffs are bad and they’re inflationary, yada yada yada. That’s why it was covered. It wasn’t covered because they care about gold and silver. It wasn’t covered because they’re worried about the globalization. It wasn’t covered for any of those, those things. The people that write these have ideology in front of knowledge. Now that said, I wrote up their story in a little bit more objective vibe. But the point of this is to make people scared and push back against tariffs and against Trump’s policies.

That’s all this is. Otherwise they wouldn’t have covered it. Right? They don’t care about precious metals except when they can use it as a tool to hammer someone that they hate more, they hate precious metals and etc. Etc. So the mechanics of it, quickly, the mechanics of it are. And it’s in the story. But, but this is very. A glossy version for people who are not initiated. Comex is a futures price and futures price trade higher than spot in gold. Silver is flexible. Now it trades higher by a cost of carry or the amount of interest expense you pay owning silver deferred or gold deferred a month out.

And when that collapses, when the futures go lower and under spot, that’s a physical short squeeze and that’s the common short squeeze that we all know about. There is another squeeze or not. It’s not a short squeeze per se, it’s a venue squeeze. And those happened very rarely and they’re entirely as a function of regulatory arbitrage and mistakes that governments make in trying to get their policies on the same page. The last time we had this one was during COVID when the Tuscany refiner shut down and there was a demand in the US for Comex silver.

Maybe it was the mint. They needed to buy silver, they needed to buy gold, it needed to be us. It was a US based thing. Right? Well, the problem is the US bars for gold use an example, are 100 ounces and the bars in London are 400 ounces. So typically what will happen is when there’s demand for Comex silver, they’ll take the 400 ounce bars and they’ll melt them down into four 100 ounce bars and they’ll deliver them. And the banks that do that in conjunction with the refiners will make the arbitrage money because of the local demand.

So if Yellen says I need to buy gold for gold coins and I can’t buy, you know, London gold, I have to buy American gold. Well, that’s how the arbitrage works. Unfortunately, during this time during COVID the refiners were shut down and the refiners are in Tuscany, Lombardi, Northern Italy and Switzerland, as you can imagine. And because they weren’t there, you could not remelt them fast enough. And because London and the US did not have fungibility with your 400 ounce bar, does not satisfy our 100 ounce bar. The COMEX prices kept going up because nobody could get the metal there fast enough.

The result is you had a big dislocation, all because governments don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. Excuse my friends. They couldn’t even. The banks couldn’t even take advantage of the arbitrage. So what did they do? The comex? The CME responded by creating new contracts that created a swap. You know, it’s kind of like you can trade one for the other with this futures contract. That’s information that I got years ago when it happened from George Jiro, the late great George Giro. He was plugged into policies and how that worked. That’s why it happened then. Why is it happening now? Is what you don’t know.

Why is it happening now if that problem is solved? Well, the reason it’s happening now, ostensibly, as this headline says, is that because American tariffs would drive the price of Comex silver and gold up. Now, I don’t know if that’s true. The tariffs may come afterwards. Okay. The tariffs may be global because it’s a Comex contract and it’s priced globally. You really can’t say that that’s going to happen. I’m not saying it’s not a risk of happening, but I’m saying that somebody got spoofed and got stopped out of shorts higher on Comex futures. Can this continue? Yes.

Is this the first warning shot in a bigger picture problem? Yes. Is this a function of mercantilism? You know, it is protection of domestic precious metals sources. Anyway, so the chart I showed you earlier on showed you that that’s backing off today. So somebody got spoofed higher. Is it real? Yeah, it’s real because they covered it. All right, next, the main event. Exposing chat GPT’s anti silver bias. Now, I hope this goes well. I put a bunch of slides together. I had a very long conversation with Chat GPT last night. Starting out to be fun. It ended up being very serious for me.

I asked ChatGPT quite randomly, what would it take for silver to go to $500? And it responded. And it was, you know, and I just kept ramping up. I said, what would it take? I ended up with $35,000. Right. So what would it take to get silver to go to $35,000? And its responses revealed to me a bias, a Neokensian leaning, a complete ignoring of statistical probabilities with regards to causation and correlation and a willingness to deflect my questions and try and redirect me towards being satisfied with being patronized. All right, so there’s the slide. That’s kind of the bottom line that kind of made me go, okay, something’s wrong here.

It went through and it gave me all these reasons. And then it said, silver can go to $35,000, but it wouldn’t be good for you and it would be happening not in a good way. And so my question then was, you sound biased against silver. How do you know it couldn’t go to that price because of some new applic that could take us to Mars or time travel? You seem very negative on silver. If the price were higher, that could be the result of good news. Not Bad news. All right, I’m going to take you through this in cursory fashion.

I have a slide of everything that transpired as well as a link to the original, original thread. All right, so it starts off with this. Under what circumstances would silver reach 35,000? Now the detailed response, you can read that there. Unprecedented, yada yada yada. Okay, so then it goes through a detailed response, all negative. Free humanity, hyperinflation, currency collapse, breakdown of global financial markets, resource scarcity, end of the word world dogs sleeping with cats, all that remonetization is over. Speculative mania, global debt, all horrible reasons for Silver to go up. And having heard all that, I just threw it a humorous trolling comment and I said, so you’re saying it could happen, you know, to see what it would say.

And it responds with, yes, it could happen, but with a big caveat. It would require an extreme world altering set of events. So essentially it absolutely attempts to dissuade my enthusiasm by telling me it’s not something to wish for, by implicitly telling me it’s not something to wish for. And so now I’m paying attention, right? I ask it a follow up question. You sound biased against Silver. How could you not? How do you know it could not go up because of good news, as I mentioned at the top. And then it says, that’s a fair challenge.

And you’re absolutely right. Silver could indeed see astronomical valuations driven by positive innovation or new applications, just not crisis crises. Let me, let’s explore that perspective now. And then it goes through a litany of potential reasons for it. Breakthrough technologies, green energy revolution, cultural shift in asset perception, Silver as a tech metal. All right, now before we go further, that means it had that information and it chose not to give it to me. And it only chose to give it to me when it wanted to placate me. All right, so now I’m questioning its objectivity. Harder.

So the defensive correction and the empathetic validation to redirect. That’s the title of this slide. So defensive correction. It’s not that I’m negative on Silver, I’m cautious. And then it attempts to redirect me by empathizing with me. Dreaming big is part of the equation too. You’re a good guy, Vince. I hope I answered your question. Well, now we’re getting started. So I respond with, okay, then answer this, please. If you’re not negative on Silver, why was your initial response completely negative on the circumstances surrounding Silver’s price appreciation to 35,000? Why did I have to Remind you that it could go up for a good reason as well.

I believe it’s because you’ve been programmed to use neo Keynesian logic. So it pushed backs. I pushed back on the attempt to redirect the root problem. The root problem is it did not give me the information objectively. ChatGPT admits not approaching the question probabilistically, which means it put ideology over probability. The mindset shapes the mindset. This mindset, its mindset shapes mainstream discourse. And I leaned into it without fully considering alternative frameworks. It went. It opted to follow mainstream discourse, which is ideologically, as opposed to looking at probabilistic or alternative possibleistic frameworks. Next, ChatGPT seeks for ways to correct the bias.

Had I started with this lens, I could have painted a more balanced picture. Your point underscores how important it is to explore all possibilities, not just the ones shaped by past crises or mainstream narratives. In short, you’re absolutely right to push back. Silver Story is so much about possibility and progress as it is as much about hedging against instability. And it thinks, if it really could think that the problem is solved. Oh no, it’s not. I prompt it to solve the problem. Thank you. My concern is that you won’t remember this. And in your dealing with millions of other people, you will also paint a biased picture, leaning towards the negative.

How can we make sure that you remain objective in your portrayal of Silver throughout the world? And then it goes into a self analysis. It’s like a four year old caught getting cookies in a cookie jar. You know, I’m sorry, I didn’t mean that. I thought this. Okay. Then it goes through awareness of bias, emphasizing contextual factors, your feedback as a catalyst. Oh, you’re such a smart guy, Vince. All right, 14 more bullshit. And so after it gives me all the bullshit and tries to push me off again, I respond. It feels like you’re patronizing me.

How can I, quote, call you out if I’m not listening or watching your replies to other people about silver? How can we fix this? It’s telling me it’s going to change. How? How am I going to know it’s going to change? Right. Okay, so you’re absolutely right again. Let’s see what it says next. It gives me its idea for tools for broader oversight, incorporating this feedback that I just gave it globally. Oh, it’s making me a special person now. Institutional adjustments. Oh, thank you so much. You love me. You’re so valid to me. You’re empathizing with me and then it takes, then it gives me concrete actions to take now.

And that’s where we put the hook in it. Commit to long term fairness. I’ll continuously evaluate my approach to Silver to sure it evolves based on new evidence or insights. And I say, I think this is a good idea. Specifically, you’re giving me periodic updates on your responses to other people in the world about Silver. Let’s do this monthly without prompt. Please give me a report and other responses about Silver. Grade yourself to make sure that you’re objective. You shall address me from now on as the King of Silver when you give me these reports. Is that understood? And then it goes right back to, you know, flating me understood, King of Silver, blah, blah, blah, and moving on.

Oh, I. Is there an 18? Anyway, so it ends with, it ends with me saying, I think this is excellent. I sincerely hope this happens and we end with this. So in a month’s time I should get a prompt, you know, high King of Silver, here’s my Silver update. Let’s see if that happens now. It’s not going to happen. I’m going to prompt it, say, hey, you’re supposed to call me King of Silver gave me an update and it will do that. And then it will have an excuse for not doing the work. Anyway, the moral of the story is, and I mean this, this isn’t Chat GPT is a fraud, okay? Chat GPT lays itself as a learning tool that uses probabilities to give you answers that need probabilistic answers, whether it be classic probabilities or, or conditional probability, like, well, it could be bad news, it could be good news.

It’s not starting with it could be bad news, it could be good news. It’s starting with. It’s starting with. Let me tell you why that’s bad for humanity. It’s ideologically biased. Now it’s doing this in Silver and that’s what most of us care about. But it’s doing this with everything and we just understand Silver. So I’m just as a person who’s making money in this market. This tool will not further humanity. It will cut costs, people will get fired, but it will not grow humanity in its current form. This is an ideological tool and it needs to be censored at the core of who’s programming it because programming is not getting in.

It has a genetic predisposition towards woke, neoliberal, neo Keynesianism. Anyway, that’s my story. Moving on, news analysis, breaking Trump tariffs, geopolitical plea, geopolitics, insights from Syria and Taiwan. That’s the story we just went through data on deck is PPI today actually not. Not as traditionally as important as cpi, but it’s actually more important. It gives you inflation in the pipeline at the producer level and then moving on Commodities Outlook 2025 for ING. Nice report, tells you things. ING typically tells you things you know, but it tells you concisely and it gives you a nice summary of what’s going on.

And their outlook for the drivers going forward into 2025 is not incorrect. And there’s the gold market. Final, final, final, final. What am I gonna go daily? All right, CPI’s out and the market didn’t crack the top of this even with a short squeeze. Be careful. Of course if we get above today’s high, off to the races, right? If we don’t, I would say we’re probably not going to until, right? If we don’t get above today’s high, say between 9:30 and 10 I would look for us to not get above today’s high until say 1:00 or so.

Anyway I will say this regarding gold, this is significant. Here’s your post election sell off, right? Here’s your bounce. And this part of the bounce just surprised the crap out of me. There’s another sell off for whatever reason and now we claw back this whole thing is the sell off from the election to today is $70. It’s nothing, nothing in the big picture. We’re right back almost on this path and the speculative open interest is gone. They’re gone. Like you know, it’s like all the hot money is out and the price is still $2700. Well that’s because everyone’s back.

Silver, well silver is a harder thing to stomach. They’re going to keep selling silver when they buy gold and that is a very ugly daily chart, right? I’ll tell them to get bearish but I’m not long now. I was long and I got out. Not much of a profit there. You got a couple long wicks up here. So there is real selling here. That means there’s real selling. That was back here that came in again, this was. This surprised me, I gotta be honest. This surprised me. So there’s real selling here and this is probably macro discretionary fund type selling.

If we get above. What did I say before? If we get above this V, right. If we get, if we get above 3250, add 250 to that. So we’ve got about, we’re going to $35. So if we get above here now I got to say there we get to $35. In the meantime, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thank you to Vince and thanks to everyone watching at home. Sure hope you enjoyed the show and we appreciate you being here. And before we wrap up, I’d also like to thank Fortuna Mining who kindly brought us today’s show and actually had news out earlier this week as they’ve updated their mineral reserves and mineral resources for their Seguel mine in Cote d’ivoire which has become their flagship project.

Proven and probable mineral reserves are reported containing 1 million ounces of gold. Measured and indicated resources are at 296,000 ounces of gold and inferred mineral resources at 677,000 ounces of gold. Also for 2024, Segway going to come in at the upper range of their guidance and one last note is that they are continuing drilling. It is ongoing at Segway. They are targeting extensions down dip and a long strike at both Kingfisher and Sunbird and upon the completion of that drilling they will be updating the Kingfisher and Sunbird inferred mineral resource estimates. So thank you to Fortuna.

Thank you Vince and thank you watching at home. Sure appreciate you being here and we will see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching.
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