➡ Mitsubishi Financial Group (MUFG) and Michael Hartnett believe the market still has potential to grow and are not concerned about it being overbought. They suggest watching the dollar’s performance, as its strengthening could push gold prices lower. Vince Lancey’s Morning Markets and Metals report discusses financial and precious metals news, including the current state of the gold market. Despite a drop in gold prices, they remain optimistic, citing Deutsche Bank’s new work and MUFG’s belief that the gold rally is far from over.
➡ The stock market is influenced by various factors, including commodity prices and U.S. tariff policies. The market’s performance can be predicted by observing certain trends and indicators, such as the 3281 line. If the market falls below this line, it could drop quickly to 3200. However, if it stays above 3281, it indicates strong buying activity. The market’s behavior is also influenced by the strength of the dollar and global events.

MUFG believes, Mitsubishi Financial Group believes, that this market has a ways to go yet and they like the behavior even though it’s up here and they do not think it’s anywhere near being overbought for the end of the year. Michael Hartnett just said we remain first half buyers of dips and bonds, international and gold. The trading plan for today is watch the dollar. If the dollar strengthens, they’re trying to push gold back lower. We are in a world war gold right now. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, my name is Vince Lancey and this is the Goldfix Friday Market Rundown. And gold is down 54 bucks, oh crap. Okay, it’s not as bad as it looks. We have Michael Hartnett to rescue us. We’re going to touch on something we just saw by him. All right, there’s the front page. Deutsche Bank triples down. Mind you, as much as I love this new work that they’re doing, this is Deutsche Bank. That’s all I’m going to say. Top left hand side, COMEX Death Watch. Still relevant. And lower left hand side, MUFG Gold Steamroller Rally is far from overblown.

MUFG is a monster bank. And they’re not a bullion bank. So we’re going to go through that report a little bit today. That was already sent out this morning to premium subscribers. Here we go. We’re going to do the good news first, right? You wake up, you say, oh, gold’s $50 lower. What the heck does that mean? Well, we got a little Michael Hartnett in my inbox here, courtesy Zero Hedge. Thank you. And the first thing we did was look for the word gold. And here he is. Michael Hartnett says, today, we remain first half of the year buyers of dips in bonds, international and gold, sellers of SPX and US dollar rallies.

And, you know, as a seasoned veteran, I shouldn’t need to hear that, but I do. Because Michael’s not right all the time, but he’s certainly authentic in his calls. All right, so there you go. Today we’re going to discuss the MUFG Gold Steamroller Rally is far from overblown. And discussion two, I want to go through the charts and do a little risk trading plan for today through Sunday, giving insight to what I’m looking at short term, help you handicap. And, you know, Michael Hartnett holds my hand. If you need your hand held, it’s here. So we’re going to do that.

Oh, yeah, we did that already. Today, here’s the feature stories, MUFGs. We’re going to discuss that a little bit. We just sent that out. Gold, yes, $4,000 is coming. That’s JP Morgan sent out to founders yesterday. And we will do a full blown write up of that massive report this weekend. Yeah, that’s all I can say about it. DB triples that’ll go. You just heard our comment on that. Go fix PM World War. World War goal. The headline is for the chart. That’s basically our PM post. But there is a World War going on a goal that’s not hyperbole.

Those of you who know the ages when the market goes up and the U.S. is when the U.S. hours is when the rehypothecators push back, know that that’s been going on for over 10 years. And now it’s getting a lot bigger. The battle is coming down to a deadline. Perhaps it’s Basil three, July first. Who knows? Okay, so there you go. MUFG, gold steam roller rally is far from overblown. Hold on for a second. I need to do the markets. Ten year yields are down three almost four points at 4.27. The dollar is 99.64 up 36.

S&P 500 is 54.70 down 20 and weakening. The VIX is 26.92 up 46 basis points. Gold hovering down 50 was about 55 lower. Trading 32.96 down one and a half percent. Silver 33.32 down 65 basis points. Again, people are unwinding that trade. Copper 476 down nine cents. WTI 6239 down 80 cents. Backcast 294 down four cents. Bitcoin up 600, bucking the trend. Like to see that, especially if stocks are down. Palladium 935 down 11. Platinum 965 down nine. Gold silver. It seems to me it’s new home right now. Grains are up with wheat really strong. 1052, sorry to be 1052 up three.

Corn 475 up almost two and wheat 547.75 up almost five. All right, so if you look at that board, you say, I don’t know what the make of it. And I say, I don’t know either, but I’m going to give you an idea. It’s Friday. At some point during the day, either now or later, they’re going to square their books, right? So during US hours, US news will dominate the dollar and bonds and stocks, right? So it’s like the Trump time, right? And what you see in gold is you want to see how it reacts to the dollar.

The dollar correlation is back. It’s almost like the West is using a dollar correlation to push back on the physical demand and say, no, it’s related to dollars. That’s all part of the gold world war. But that’s what we’re saying. If gold comes in weak and the dollar strengthens more, they’re going to hit it. It’s old days right now. Old days for the West. And if gold comes in strong and then the dollar gets stronger, they’re all going to go to lunch because they don’t really know what to do. But today might be the day they push on it a little bit.

They, meaning the people that are bearish. All right, here we go. MUFG Gold’s steamroller rally is far from overblown. Gold’s history-making rally looks ferocious. The breakneck surge has witnessed bullion check off another box at its extraordinary rally, surpassing 3,500 threshold this week, and up around 30% year-to-date. This was written today, I think, actually. Yet despite persistently notching fresh peaks, our conviction remains resolute that we are a distance away from overextended or bubble territory. So we are not close to overextended. It’s, you know, Japanese English. And maintain our above-consensus forecast for gold to catapult even higher and hit 3850 un-ounce by year-end and breach north of 4,000 threshold by Q2 2026.

They had these levels last year. They were before gold. They were before J.P. Everyone was before J.P. Morgan. They were before everyone on this, okay? Really, really, they were aggressive a year and a half ago, and they made their case, and they were right. What I want to see is I want to see them raise their target. If they don’t raise their target, then they’re not bullish anymore. That’s how you read it. That chart there, that’s a cool little chart. We’ve been talking about ETFs here a lot, ETF volumes. Remember, ETFs, if we get up to the peaks, that Twin Peak area between here and here, that’s COVID, and that’s the war.

Between here and here, if we get there, ETF flows, volume of bullion bought, you’re probably going to add another 400 to 600 to gold right now. I say 600, but there you go. However, they’re showing the chart as administration, and it’s kind of interesting. Gold went up under Trump 1.0, and gold’s going up under Trump 2.0, and it’s not skewed. It’s honest, but you have to look at COVID during COVID is really what drove gold up during Trump 1.0. Yeah, trade war 2018, 2019, and it was up, but it wasn’t up a lot.

Okay, so here we go. Next page, next clip. China holds around 9% of its reserves in gold. The global average is around 20%, which could be perceived as a pragmatic medium-term target for large emerging market central banks based on historical precedent and current position, mind you. That’s what China holds publicly. They have a lot more still. They need to hold, they don’t need, they should hold 20% publicly to satisfy the rest of the world if they’re interested in satisfying the rest of the world. Indeed, Russia increased its gold share from 8% to 20%.

Between 2014 and 2020, they de-dollarized and repatriated its gold holdings ahead of sanctions and positions. It’s almost like they do. But that makes sense. After 2014, the first Ukraine issues started. They’re like, okay, we’re done with this. All right, we would add that Bank of America agrees with this assessment and has gamed it out that central bank buying will last another two to five years if between 20 and 30, they were closer to 30%, if between 20 and 30% is to be achieved in an orderly fashion. But we would say these are not orderly times.

Full analysis available to previous subscribers. The left-hand side shows the shift in reserve management, the de-dollarization, and the right-hand side shows their standard deviation price target. Again, that full report isn’t there. Markets recap. Wall Street closed higher, boosted by tech stocks, and made easing U.S.-China tariff sanctions. Treasury yields fell in hopes of lower U.S. tariffs and Fed rate cuts. The dollar weakened against major currencies, while gold gained on bargain buying. Bargain buying, that’s interesting. Oil rose as markets assessed mixed economic data and conflicting tariff signals. Its allergy season, I’m still congested.

Canadian stocks have been higher as falling bond yields and rising commodity prices boosted investor sentiment, while markets also weighed evolving U.S. tariff policies. Toronto stock exchange SPTSX composite index climbed 1.04%. You can see the price there. There’s the rest of the markets. Market news, you can see that. We have those stories at the bottom. Download deck, it’s all about consumer sentiment today, as it is every Friday. Nothing else, but that starts at 10. Summary and final market check. That will be the chart thing I want to talk about here. All right, so here we go.

There’s gold. Let’s hide those for a second. So, there are all kinds of ways you can look at this. Even star, shooting star, lightsaber, I call them. But this is the line to save for me. See this dotted line here? That’s 3281. You can make it a little bit lower, right? But between 3281, between 3281 and 3256, I’m doing nothing and I’m violently neutral. Above 3281, and I think that we have a massive big buyer still in the market, very similar to something I saw last year. Below 3250, then I think we’re going to 3200 pretty quickly.

So, I have a dotted line there. That’s my alert. If the market goes below 3281 today, I would be inclined to be short for the rest of the day with an hourly candle stop out, hourly candle high stop out. If the market closes below 3281, then I would be going into the week and I’d be flat, and I would be ready for Sunday night. So, Sunday night, if China comes in buying again, then I would be a buyer on the way up through 3281. So, machinations aside, there should be, here, I’ll spread this out a little bit.

There may be a very big buyer right here, this behavior I’ve seen before. And if this buyer returns again, if we test this and they find buying there again, forget about it. We’re going to go back up in a heartbeat. Not goldwood, right? I don’t want to check those. But if we get below it, then that buyer who’s probably not filled is just lowering his bid and he might start catching knives down to, say, 3220. So, I’m looking, I’m literally looking to get short below 3281 today, okay? And if I’m wrong, I’ll buy it at 3285, because I think this area is pretty important.

Again, down, held, next day, no one tested it again. It’s like, no one said, I’m going to sell it again. Up, next day, let’s try it again. So, you know, if the market comes down here for any reason at all and the dollar is still strong, like getting stronger, then I’ll wait. If the market gets weaker, then I’ll buy. If it gets below 3281, then I would sell. So, that’s a very tactical way to look at it. But let me just pull some charts up to give you an idea of some perspective on this, right? I’ve talked about lines before, trend lines.

Trend lines are speed lines, right? Like gam lines. Here’s the trend. And then it gets faster and faster and faster. And so now this one, gone. Now we’re at this one, right? We break this one. You’d be right to assume this could be important. I would actually think the sideways one will be important first, but I don’t think we’re going to 3100. I think 3200 will be right there, right in this area. But anyway, this is a market that’s on the boil and coming off the boil. The question is, does it have to settle down to here before it starts going back up or here or some new place in the middle? This is a market working off being overbought.

That’s all it is, right? Okay. All right. So in summary, MUFG believes, Mitsubishi Financial Group believes that this market has a ways to go yet and they like the behavior, even though it’s up here and they do not think it’s anywhere near being overbought for the end of the year. Michael Hartnett just said, we remain first half buyers of dips and bonds, international and gold. That’s as good of an endorsement as any. We don’t think he’s saying not to sell it. The trading plan for today is watch the dollar.

If the dollar strengthens, they’re trying to push gold back lower. We are in a World War Gold right now. Vince, have a great weekend. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again next week. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

And thanks for watching. We’ll see you next week. [tr:trw].

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