➡ The financial market is currently a competition between China’s CCP-backed Shanghai funds and U.S. bank-backed funds. The market’s target of 3140 has been hit, which may lead to more selling. However, if the market can maintain a balance between 3140 and 3240, it could cause short sellers to lose patience. In other news, Dolly Varden Silver has been active, acquiring new properties and planning a new exploration program focused on expanding high-grade mineralization at the Wolf and Homestake silver deposits.

Hartnett’s fund clients say gold is the most crowded long in their minds right now. Hartnett’s GFMS has been the most reliable contrarian indicator of stock direction since Trump took office per Hartnett himself. Now they are saying gold is too high. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the gold fixed market rundown. Today we start with the home page. Michael Avery says Mercantilism is back.

That’s a new historical and thing piece by him. We have that. Malie judge expected to order Barrack’s mind reopening. That’s a news item. And in the lower left, gold synthesized from lead for a millisecond. Maybe that’s why we sold off yesterday. I don’t think so, but it’s a good story. And COMEX death watching charts. Lower right hand side, we’re going to be discussing Hartnett’s clients say gold most overvalued in 20 years. We’ll be discussing that as well as touching on the Barrack story. And there they are. Fund survey says gold most credit long and Barrack reopening expected.

So let’s pull up the gold chart on the daily, which has had an impressive rally off the lows while we’re looking at the markets. Ten year yields are 451 down $3 is 100 spot 89 down almost 12. The SP 500 is 5864 down 22. The VIX is 1891 up 30. Gold is 3178. Up $1 after being down $59 last night. If you can’t see that candle there, it’s a long wick. It’s really impressive. Anyway, silver 3216 down three and a half because, hey, let’s sell silver because we bought gold again. Copper 458 up a little bit less than a tenth of a penny.

WTI 6118 down $1.78. Are we worried about this? Not working out again. Okay. Natural gas 341 unchanged. Bitcoin 102 spot 200 down 1100. Palladium 958 up 6. Platinum 986 up 10. Gold silver 9871 stable. Soy 1050 down 15. Wow. Corn 437 unchanged. Offered wheat 526 down 25 basis points. And China stocks are lower. And U.S. stocks are lower. Taken together, somehow people aren’t as optimistic as they were yesterday. But we shall see. Let’s begin. Gold rallies $59 off lows during Eurasian session. That would be the session during Europe and Asia. I don’t know what else to call it.

Two in the morning, basically. Yeah, let’s go. Hartnett’s fund clients say gold is the most crowded long in their minds right now. Hartnett’s GFMS has been the most reliable contrarian indicator of stock direction since Trump took office. Per Hartnett himself. Now they are saying gold is too high. Quote, investors said gold is the most overvalued in 20 years. Long gold equals the number one crowded trade. Having looked, we have the whole right up there. It’s a very impressive slide deck with about five slides dedicated to that title there. And the rest are a really good periodic slideshow to get a feel for how fund managers are really thinking right now.

So a quick excerpt from our extended comment in there. Having looked at these types of reports relatively closely for the past two years, we can say the following. This is the first time that his survey ever has called gold overvalued during that time. Commodities are not these people’s thing typically. But if they are paying attention, we are as well. Not to make too much of it, but one thing can absolutely be taken away from this as traders. Bearish, we said this yesterday before the sell-off. Bearish funds will sell gold harder now. If they are right, it’s because China backs off its bid.

But the funds are not yet in control of this market, at least not as of yet. And there’s that story. Now, why do we say that? Because if you look at how things are going, things are stacking up to get to bearish on this market. The China deal. The ceasefire, let’s call it, number one. Number two, the amazing announcements about the Saudi deals, the Middle East deals coming out yesterday. And number three, going back a little bit further, a couple weeks prior, Nomura’s quant guru noted very pointedly that gold was way over its skis, historically speaking.

And historically, it will drop anywhere from 2% to 6% in the two months preceding from that event. So all that encourages people to sell it. The first people who sold it, we already saw, were the macro discretionary taking profits in the rally, selling the rally as bullion banks covered their shorts, as smaller funds covered their shorts, as ETF buying got in. And that was a sign of a top, not a big picture top, but a top nonetheless. Then Morgan Stanley comes out and says, we think a top is in for now. Citibank, I think, downgraded their short term price target.

There’s zero to three month price target. That’s like they’re basically their impulsive price target. And so all these things encourage people to sell it. And they did. And so this is the result. And we’re down. Now you’re having more and more people get in. So before we go on to the next story, this is speaking to the tactical people, to the gold fix tactical people here. This is where the whole fish hook thing comes in, right? You want to have a long wick underneath after lots of reasons to get bearish and people sell it. Then the open interest goes up because someone catches the knife.

Now, I don’t know that the knife is caught yet. OK, but I’d be willing to bet open interest went up today and new shorts got it. And they may be encouraged to put more on over the next few days. But if the market doesn’t wash fast, they will become impatient. Very Michael Oliver type of thing I’m saying here, meaning momentum is lower. But the short term players will cover if they don’t get their way relatively soon. So the sell it in the whole crowd is in the market now. I don’t know how deep the whole goes, but they’re selling it in the hole, not goldwood.

OK, next story. We have that whole analysis and report under Hartnett funds say gold most overvalued in 20 years. That’s a premium post. Barrick reopening expected. This is a news item yesterday at commercial court in Marmakko. Mali is set to review a request from the country’s military led government to reopen Barrick Golds. Luello, Wonkodo. I’m sure I’m butchering that mind of their provisional administration, a court official confirmed. Not going to try and say that name, but the vice president of the tribunal de Comerce, Comerce, I guess we’re talking about French here, stated the filing and case preparation will proceed Thursday.

Three separate sources told Reuters that the court may soon rule on the proposal, which seeks to transfer temporary control of the mining operations from Barrick to a newly appointed management entity. Sounds risky. The request follows the suspension of operations at the complex in January after a tax and ownership dispute. The Mali government holds a 20 percent stake in the facility. That full story, as written by us, is in Mali judge expected to order Barrick reopening. Plenty of other things to talk about, but that’s it for now for us. Market recaps. Major stock indices ended mostly higher and treasury yields were steady.

I think they were a little higher. As investors, I Thursday’s producer price data for further clues on the economic outlook. The dollar rebounded while gold weakened. Oil prices eased, pressured by rising crude stockpiles. No, my mistake. Canada’s main stock index edged higher in choppy trading while investors await signals from ongoing trade developments. There you have it. Today’s data, 830 a.m. retail sales and PPI. Pretty big data day. Normally, I’d say it’s really important. But after the China ceasefire, it won’t be as important. After the tariff suspension, it won’t be as important. But people will be looking at it in the context of the CPI cooling for further signs.

People are going to look. Gamblers are going to gamble, right? They’re going to look to trade it. Anyway, moving along. Related post, Michael, we mentioned that. That’s a very nice historical piece. We won’t be satisfied, however, until he acknowledges our wheel of mercantilism. So there you have it. COMEX Death Watch in charts. That’s yesterday. U.S. Saudi PAC delivers record $142 billion in defense sales, $600 billion in investment commitments. We love that news as Americans, as equity owners, as believers in a free market, eventually coming back and helping us to shine as a country. Gold synthesized from lead for a millisecond.

You could read that in panic. We’re not. Because it probably costs 50 ounces of gold to make one ounce. They made like a microgram or something like that. They made an atom, and it lasted for a couple milliseconds. The comment is, having freaked out about this myself a couple years ago when I knew they were pursuing it, I talked to someone about it. And he said, he goes, yeah, if they can synthesize gold, so what? They should be synthesized in commodities that they use, like hydrocarbons. You know, like a sandwich, maybe. But anyway, gold’s the most robust thing to do, and it’s a great headline.

But their gold is not to synthesize gold. Their gold is to probably create a black hole. Who knows? There you go. So final comment, unless China completely collapses, they won’t. The game is now China’s CCP-backed Shanghai funds versus U.S. macro, too big to fill bank-backed funds. And we said yesterday at 640 p.m., 3140 is the target, and 3240 is a stop-loss. So the target is hit. That will encourage them to sell again and sell more. The question is, can the market go sideways and stay between 3140 and 3240 for a period of time, long enough to make the shorts lose patience? Sideways is bullish between now and July.

That’s our take, especially with the 90-day ceasefire. As time goes on, if there’s no material news, then the ceasefire becomes a bullish exit. OK, what’s next? Is there anything next? Premium. I’ll just share this with everyone here. Retest of the area. If it finds buying, then you have rocket fuel. OK, this is me basically saying what I just said before, right? So we have a long wick below. You could have official coming. Final market check. All right, so let’s just let’s go through a couple markets here. So there’s the gold long wick. I’m excited about that.

But by no means am I looking for a V-shaped bottom. To be fair, though, we’ve had V-shaped bottoms like this exactly like this before. 50-day moving average. This is where V-shaped bottoms happen. OK, am I calling for one? No, I don’t call for market moves. That’s for amateurs. What I am saying is that if it weren’t for the news items that are out, I would be saying, this is cool. Get long above today’s high. Get long. Actually, I put an alert here this morning. I would look to get long above 3213 via call spreads.

Expecting it to go back into here. And if it goes back into here, then either we range lower, like 3140 to 3240, as I said, or we have a little ice patch higher. But back to 3450. Anyway, that’s it. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thanks, as always, for tuning in and watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. Sure hope you enjoyed the show and that this helped to give you a nice start to your day. And before we wrap up, I just did want to thank Dolly Vardin-Silver, who was our proud sponsor of today.

And Dolly Vardin actually with a fair bit of news out in the past week, because as I mentioned the other day, they did acquire the Porter Project in the Golden Triangle, which is adding to their land package in that region. And they also reached a deal with Heckla to acquire their Kinscook property. And here you can see Sean Kunkin, who was on the show recently, and the CEO of Dolly mentions consolidating Dolly Vardin’s Kitzalt Valley project with our major shareholder Heckla’s large and under-explored claims on the property. We’ll give them additional value to unlock in their property package.

And speaking of which, they also did announce that they are getting ready for that new drill program, which Sean talked about in that interview. And I’ll link to that at the end if you’d like to take a look. But here you can see they have also announced a new exploration program, which is going to consist of 35,000 meters of diamond drilling, follow-up on the 2024 program, and this year’s program will be focused on expanding the high-grade mineralization at the Wolf and Homestake silver deposits, while also following up on some of the promising results they got from last year’s exploration targets, which include Redpoint and Moose.

And I will put the link to all of these press releases in the description field below and Dolly Vardin silver, obviously on the junior side, a very active company that has expanded the number of ounces in the ground, and you can find out more about them at Dolly Vardin silver. And with that said, we’ll wrap up for today, but in case you’d like to hear a little bit more about Sean and what they’re doing at Dolly, and also, he talked about, we had a nice discussion of why silver has lag gold.

Well, that one is coming your way now. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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