Gold Gets Caught In Crosshairs Of Escalating Trade War | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ Vince Lanci on Arcadia Economics discusses the recent drop in gold prices, attributing it to various factors including Nvidia’s crash, Donald Trump’s tariff threats, and the approval of Besant as Treasury Secretary. He also mentions UBS’s update on gold, which suggests a positive future for the market. Additionally, he talks about the potential impact of tariffs on various industries, including steel, aluminum, copper, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips. Lastly, he mentions the potential for retaliation in the ongoing trade war with China.
➡ The New Zealand dollar is down due to tariffs imposed after a retaliation on Columbia. The Secretary of Treasury supports these tariffs, which are seen as a response to a perceived trade war, with Nvidia, a key player in our stock market, being targeted. The article also discusses the recent crash of Nvidia, its potential impact on the market, and the introduction of a Chinese product, Deep Seek, which is causing panic and may affect American companies. The author suggests that tariffs may be necessary to counteract this.

➡ The market is seeing a lot of selling in Nvidia as it rallies, indicating a possible shift in AI stocks. Silver, which is used in chip production, has been relatively stable compared to Nvidia’s high incline. Some suggest that silver is undervalued compared to Nvidia, while others believe Nvidia is overvalued. The presenter also introduces a silver figurine of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter, available for purchase.

 

Transcript

Gold had sold off and then it sold off more and I actually wasn’t in front of a screen and we were talking about it, Chris and I were talking about it as it was happening and we were trying to figure out what the rationale for it was. And it actually was down more than and silver. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news. Get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy. Today’s the Gold Fix Market rundown and the title is tentatively, Gold is Caught in the Middle of a Trade War.

This pertains to three things. The first two are obvious. Nvidia got caught with its pants down and got slammed. That’s a crash. And that took gold with it, although it’s not obvious as to why that happened. The second thing is Donald Trump, it’s now obvious to me that this was in retaliation for what happened yesterday. Unleashed a barrage of threats and probably executions, executive orders regarding tariffs on the heels of Besant being approved as Treasury Secretary. And the third thing is what happened with gold and actually to a slightly lesser extent, silver. So we’ll try and weave these together.

And also in context of what was said yesterday, let’s start with the homepage. All right, there’s lovely. Michael Seller. Is MicroStrategy a Ponzi scheme? And the answer is if it is one, it’s a very effective one. We just sent this out. Founders is deep seat Doomsday for American OpenAI. And that post is for primarily equity holders who are trying to get to the bottom of Is the China product better? Is the China product cheaper? And is Deep Seek cheaper to get? Is it going to change the environment here? And the answer is yes, it will change the environment.

But there are some. But it’s not, it’s not a miracle. Okay, Gold Fix. UBS updates clients on gold. This was sent out last night. This is an update. It’s. That’s the PM post. But UBS updated their clients on gold. They had a, they had a 2025 report go for gold. And they updated it. And it wasn’t in reaction to yesterday’s move, it was out on Friday. But it was interesting. It was, it was a short note. There was nothing brand new in it, but it was interesting in the sense that they’ve done this before. They reiterate their price, they tell you about their reasons for it, and then the market goes up.

Now, I’m not telling you the market’s going to go up. But I am saying that a reiteration by UBS is almost like a price increase. Yeah, that didn’t happen today or yesterday, I should say. But I do believe that they see some things down the road that are very friendly. Remember, they’re a conservative bank and they do protect their clients. Okay. The markets and I’ll just. The 10 year yield is up 3. The dollar is 107.97, up 55. The S P 500 is 6026 up 7 and change. The VIX is 1787. Excuse me. Unchanged. Gold is up for almost $5.

On the highs of the session I think at 27.45. Silver is 30. 18, stubbornly above 30. I like that. Unchanged bid up 2 cents. Copper is 422, up 30 basis points. Oil is 7470, up 77. Natural gas is 352, down almost 8 cents. Bitcoin 102 and change. Up 750. 775. Palladium 961, down less than a buck. Platinum 941, down between 6 and 6 and a half bucks. Gold, silver, 90 to 91. Now getting comfortably above 90 it seems. Soy, corn, wheat, 1045, 477, 550 up to. Up to. Up 4 and 3 quarters. The chart you’re looking at there to give you a perspective, that was yesterday.

Silver, top right hand corner, that’s an hourly chart. Dove starting at 7am top left hand corner, that’s Nvidia dove starting whenever and never came back. Starting overnight. Gold, dove starting 7am we were on the air. This was as this was happening, but we didn’t. We’d said the state. We said, what do we say? What did I say? New highs are on the table. I would say this week if it weren’t for the Fed. And then I turned to the screen later on and I said, okay, you want to buy it above here, but you want to be short until it gets above there.

I believe the actual phrase was I’m bullish but you should be short below this price. It’s not what I want it to be. Right on. I don’t have anything on to that, that regard, but that’s how you look at markets when you’re unsure. All right. And then on the right is mstr, which has become a little bit of a pet peeve for me, admittedly so. All right, let’s get to the. Let’s get to the story. Gold caught in the middle. This starts with a Conversation yesterday on chat with Chris Marcus Gold had sold off and then it sold off more.

And I actually wasn’t in front of a screen. And we were talking about it. Chris and I were talking about it as it was happening, and we were trying to figure out what the rationale for it was. And it actually was down more than silver. And I was aware of Nvidia and Deep Seek and what have you. And I turned to him and I joke, completely jokingly said, well, we can always go with manipulation. And he’s like, what do you mean? Well, manipulation, the sense that we’re retaliating. If they’re going to knock down our stocks, we’re going to knock down their gold.

And it was completely a joke. And I had just been reminding myself of the Plunge Protection team and I was doing some research on them recently. But anyway, not to, not to bore you with the details. So a couple hours later, Besent is around the same time Besent is accepted, signed in, whatever he is, as Secretary of Treasury. And all this news started coming out from Trump and he was on the tariff high horse. So I want to go through these with you, because when you take them all together, it is retaliation, not necessarily for gold, although it is for gold.

But we’re immediately retaliating for what we view as trade war behavior from China. So, well, let’s, let’s start with the. The statement said, all right, so Zero Hedge had a bunch of them. Trump will be placing tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper. Okay. Metals. I had some comments on that. It doesn’t seem normal to do that. You don’t tariff metals unless you already have them. So we’re tariffing imports because we’re not worried about them. Right. So you could say, well, why are they not tariffing silver? Well, because we still need it. Trump and his new frenemies.

That’s a story that they wrote dollar rises as percent reportedly favors universal tires. That kind of blew me away because I know that. I know that percent is not anti tariff. He’s anti putting it on the table up front. He’s more like, let’s keep it in our pocket and use carrots and threatened sticks. And then you use the stick. So for him to say that, if he literally said that is a change in approach, you know, it’s like he’s coming out pretty aggressively. All right? And then Trump says, we’ll put tariffs on people who mean us harm.

Well, that’s a pretty broad statement, but here’s some specifics. Donald Trump, Bloomberg. Donald Trump says he Would soon impose tariffs on foreign pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and metals. And he heralds news of deep seats apparent progress in artificial intelligence as a positive. That’s all you need to know. When they put things like that. And they say, but I’m happy for you, that’s basically saying we’re going to get you back. But hey, we’re happy for you. All right, so here’s some more headlines. Yen falls 0.3% due to strong dollar. We will impose tariffs on individuals who intend to cause harm.

Pledge renewed to not modify Medicare or Social Security. Great. Building a plant in the US Is the only way to escape tariffs. US to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper. Next one. I don’t have them all on the screen here. Trump, we will soon play stars on foreign computer chips. So now you’re thinking about, if you’re taking this at its face value, now you’re thinking like, does that affect Taiwan? You know, there’s going to be carve outs for everything. But these are blanket. This is a retaliation for what happened yesterday. Trump, if you want to stop placing, if you want to stop placing the tariffs, you need to build a plant in the U.S.

he says we will look at steel and other industries for tariffs. I mean, this is like if you’ve lived through the 80s, it’s like the 80s all over again in that respect. Protectionist, but we’re protecting things that we don’t really, we don’t really need from the outside. We will also place tariffs on producers of pharmaceuticals. We will place tariffs on computer chips in the near future. Trump to consider additional industries for tariffs. Trump suggests building plants in the US So there you go. There might be one more New Zealand dollar down to impose tariffs. All right, so, so there’s nothing new in what he said, but he said it again and he said it after his retaliation on Columbia.

So just for one thing, for one second, Scott Bessant said tariffs before he was nominated, said universal tariffs, tariffs. I’m all for that, but I don’t think it would be something that I would want to do while I’m prosecuting the immigration repatriation stuff. I’d want to do it afterwards or maybe as a reaction. But here we are, hours after he’s accepted. I can’t think of the word right now, but hours after he’s in as Secretary of Treasury and he’s saying tariffs are right. So there’s a, there’s a meeting of the minds between percent and, and Trump anyway.

So these things were, I’m telling you, these things were retaliation. For what is being seen as trade war with Nvidia being attacked. Nvidia is our stock market right now. If you’re attacking Nvidia, whether you’re right or wrong, we’re going to defend that. That’s what the Plunge protection team also did. So now we go back to my conversation with Chris at Arcadia. You know what? Why would gold be down more than silver on a day where stocks are getting pummeled? Well, the answer is the plot, I believe. Right. You can’t quote me on it. You can’t quote me on it, but I believe that.

I’m not saying that we were punishing the bricks. I’m saying that on a day that stocks are down, if gold is up, that does not look good. And so they made sure they kept a lid on it. That’s it. That’s a story, right? I mean, we don’t know. The truth of the matter is, I’m talking to you as a trader, an investor. The truth of the matter is, I don’t know what the next six days will bring. I do know that we are reacting. Think I. I think I wrote that down here. That’s the Nvidia crash.

Oh, I’m a patriot. But all the stuff doesn’t seem like it was done out of strength. Wouldn’t the dollar be a lot higher otherwise? It went back up, but it wasn’t higher. Stomping on markets that reflect poorly on the US like gold, and buying a dip in Nvidia is one thing. A ban on foreign chips will probably help Nvidia as well. But nobody wins in these. When equal economic powers go head on, it’s only who survives best. Look, we’re going to suffer if this continues. And in the end, gold’s an international asset. See, we’ve been squashing international assets like gold for decades, and no one’s been attacking our stocks because it’s not international.

It projects internationally, but it’s protected domestically. Now, China, with Nvidia, with the deep seek, has intruded in our space using capitalism, so to speak, to do that, they’re dumping their chip. Dumping, like Japan did. All right, so let’s go to the Nvidia crash to give you some perspective. Most, if not everyone here has chip exposure. All right? Yesterday, sorry I wrote today was Nvidia’s third worst daily decline since 2014. That is since the start of the US big tech slowdown, takeover of the US so let’s put that move in historical context. By the way, this is.

Almost all of this is from Data track and they’re very good at pulling up the present in context of the past. All right, so here’s why Nvidia swooned on its worst days in the past. And you can read those. All right, I’m not going to get into that right now. But you can see the past, right? And here’s the other. Here’s some data shots of the past. Now we’re looking going forward, what happens when Nvidia crashes? Well, history shows a mixed picture as to how Nvidia might perform over the near term. That’s the next to one to three months.

My comment no analysis that is given to us here gives us comfort. It’s very volatile and it’s a crapshoot. That’s it. What to watch for if in terms of aside from the price, you want to watch for statements by Nvidia’s clients over the next weeks. Earnings season is coming up. Microsoft and Meta both report on Wednesday. It’ll probably get lost in a shuffle with the Fed, but it will come out the other end. That’s very important. They’re going to be asked questions about Nvidia and let’s see what they say. All right, comps. Nvidia’s valuation is average relative to its big tech peers when excluding Tesla’s outlier.

So forget about Tesla. Nvidia is still, however, a full eight points rich to the S and P, not leaving it much room for unexpected shocks. As yesterday’s activity showed, Nvidia’s past worst deli declines were due to concerns about weakening fundamentals, much like today’s yesterday’s sudden concerns related to future demand. Why did Nvidia crash and take everything with it, including gold? We’re going to tell you. Not that one. We were scrolling. Here we go. Deep Seek is the China product that’s been unleashed or dumped in the US Now Deep Seek is making. There are claims coming out about deep seat that are making people panic.

Maybe they just want something to panic about. It’s they call gold people doomers. Chip people are all dooming right now. Oh no, it’s the end of America. That type of all right. Anyway, Deep Seek is not innovative any more than ChatGPT is. That’s number one. It’s to think it’s any better. And that’s not me being a patriot, that’s me being an investor. It may not be less expensive, it may not be less expensive to make. Meaning they’re probably spending similar money to make it as we are. Is that my opinion? No, that’s empirical evidence. From Bernstein, a soc gen analytics boutique firm that is quite compelling.

It’s also subsidized by the government. The government is directly paying for it, but it is going to bludgeon American companies, VC and the like that have invested so much money in thinking prices for AI access will not drop. They’re the low cost producer. Right. They’re saying they’re selling their steel like Japan did. They’re selling their computer chips like Japan did in the 80s into us dumping it, getting market share. Okay. And they have to be pushed back on with tariffs. Now we’re not tariffing things that they care about, but we are tariff things. It’s a flex.

I’m not sure. But we’ll get to gold versus Nvidia and silver versus Nvidia because there is a relationship there. Next. Okay, staying with. So those are the claims. A little bit all over the place today, but we’re trying to get our footing going forward. All right, so news and analysis. Is MicroStrategy a Ponzi scheme? Pretty much. Go fix PM UBS updates. Stockman. America’s fiscal doomsday machine must be stopped. Founders, we just put that out as Deep seek doomsday for American OpenAI. That’s our equity, people. Goldman trader. Here you go. These two statements are correct, even though they seem contradictory.

Is deep seat Doomsday for American OpenAI? No, it’s just going to get cheaper. Right. Is deep seek bearish for Nvidia? Yeah, it’s. It’s bearish. You know, you can’t sell your chips for a billion dollars a chip anymore. They got to get cheaper because deepsea claims to be using less expensive chips. And then finally, Michael Every is doing some geopolitic work. Trump is very deadly serious about expanding US square footage, the Greenland and other things. He talks about deep sea, etc. As well. Premium. We have more on the Nvidia aspect. Plus we have the UBS report that we just.

That we just shared with premium subscribers. Right. So let’s take a look at gold. Right. What about gold on that chart? Give you a perspective. Right. We’re not zooming out. Maybe we are zooming out. Okay, so where were we two weeks ago, three weeks ago? Oh, we were testing the 100 day moving average. China bought it. China bought it. China bought it and then it pulled away was the fresh. The expression that I used. Well, here we are back down. We’re Nowhere near the 100 day moving average. We’re fine. As. As to gold. We’re fine. Gold sell off yesterday, I believe was an all hands on deck alert by the government to the Plunge protection team.

It exists. It was created during the 1987 crash for a quick response to things like that. So do they care that much about gold? No, they cared about Nvidia, they cared about stocks. They needed to put a floor in so people could catch their breath and then we could start our own propaganda saying everything is fine. But you know, you want to make sure gold does not make new highs. If golden made new all time highs. Yesterday while this was going on, we were trading 2800 that night. We were there, we were like, we were like a bad data number away and we could still be there.

So if you’re a technician, you’re looking at a trend line, you’re trading a trend line on the daily. If you’re me, you’re saying I want to see how gold does as our stocks recover. Right? That’s the whole key right now. Dollar is strong, gold is up today. Well, what does that mean? Well, that means that gold actually predicted the dollar strength yesterday. How are stocks doing? Well, the word on the street right from, from trading desks is that there’s nothing but selling in Nvidia as the market rallies. No one’s hitting bids, but they’re selling above the market.

I believe there’s going to be a rotation for, for AI stocks out of one type into another type. So those that benefit from the high cost of chips versus those that benefit from the low cost of chips, front ends will change as well. If you have a lesser expensive product that you can use to incorporate your own product into it, you’re fine. Now moving to silver. Now I haven’t done this analysis publicly before, but I do. Let’s hide all that. Silver’s below the 200 day, the 200 day moving average. You, you can’t be bullish on silver relative to gold, which is why the, the gold, the gold silver ratio is where it is.

Now. I want to add, I want to add Nvidia to this chart. So there’s silver with Nvidia added to it on a weekly chart. You need silver to make chips. Okay, how much? No one will tell you. You ever noticed that? But sometime in 24, Nvidia started to pull away right there from silver. Now silver caught up on the second run, right? Silver, the slope of its increase caught up on the second run. But notice that silver has been sideways for a long time with a slight up, up incline since. Call it April of 24, May of 24 with some very nasty spikes.

But Nvidia has had a much higher incline until yesterday. What is, what is. What should we take away from this? Well, a lot of people have been looking at this like, not a lot of people, but people that I follow. Technicians have been saying, well, silver’s undervalued relative to Nvidia. Now, that’s really not something I swear by, but I understand the rationale. And my comment to them has always been, well, then maybe Nvidia is just overvalued and silver is going to continue to be stomped on until they get gold to the price they want it to be and then silver will really explode.

Anyway, the point is, if you want to watch these two stocks. Sorry, silver’s not a stock. Get my point? Look at the sell off in Nvidia versus the sell off in silver. That’s a week. This is not much. So look at the sell off in Nvidia and silver. And silver has itself as well, but the gap is the alligator’s mouth is too wide. So if you wanted to put on a trade related to this concept, you would be short Nvidia and long silver. Right now, I’m not recommending it, but I am saying watch silver. If Nvidia drops more and silver doesn’t, that’s a really, really good sign.

And the reason I thought of this is because gold was down more than silver yesterday, you know, as much, if not more than silver. So this didn’t make sense. So I said, let’s look at silver versus the stock market. And then I said, let’s look at silver versus Nvidia. And there you have it. I mean, you know, they pretty much tracked each other until 2024 when the whole world decided that AI was the way to go and Nvidia left silver and dust. I think they’re going to meet again. 2 is up 5 cents now. All right, I’m Vince.

Have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. Sure hope you enjoyed the show. Thanks for being here. Although before we wrap up, there was one thing I had to let you know. And here is the silver chopper. Ben Bernanke. That is so cool. Can you even see his. His tie flying in the wind while he throws out a hundred dollar bills. Look at him getting ready to throw that money out there. I see that. That’s what it looks like when that even looks like it. Sorry ass. Look at the size of the bold silvery head.

Yeah, it’s enormous. Back propellers spin too. How many ounces is that? That’s 26 ounces. Of 39 fine silver homie. As you can see here, some of the key features with your Silver Chopper Ben figurine, you really get the control panel. Like there’s a whole dashboard for Ben to fly. He wants to fly onto your desk and throw a Chopper Ben here. Ben. Look at the precision. I see that greasy old bastard. He’s got two sets of spinnable propellers. This thing’s great. Dude. You could fly that thing. Wow. I could. Look how happy he is. I think he’s actually gonna get out there and throw the hundred dollar bills.

Jerome. No. There’ll be thousand dollar bills by then. I got this. I like it. Get the history before it’s made. Just click the link below to get your silver chopper bend now. So yes, if you have always dreamed of having a silver minted helicopter Ben Bernanke flying into your kitchen and throwing hundred dollar bills all across your home, well, now is your chance to get your very own silver Chopper Ben with multiple spinning propellers and Ben’s familiar brand of easy money love. We’ll also toss in the got silver coffee mug and you can find out more about that by clicking on the link below.

But yes, we did mint Ben Bernanke in silver helicopter form. That’s 26 ounces of 3:9 fine silver. And to get yours now click on the link in the description field below. And with that said, we will see you again tomorrow.
[tr:tra].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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