We also will be discussing Scott Besant and we have something special for our Canadian brothers and sisters. Nice little write up by CIBC. I’m not really that familiar with their stuff, but this is a nice little essay for their week ahead. Anyway, little love for Canada there. There are sensible people there. There might not be any sensible people here, but you get my point. All right, let’s start with the markets. The 10-year yields are down 5 at 435. The dollar is down 56 at 106.92. The S&P 500 is 59.98. Let me give you some charts to look at.

We’re going to be talking about these four markets today as it pertains to the war and as it pertains to what happened. We’ll go to the daily there. What happened Friday to Monday? The VIX is down 21, small 1503, S&P 500 to 26. Gold is 26.80, down 34. Two-thirds of the way to the bottom of its range. Silver is down 57 cents at 30.76. Copper is 411 up to almost three cents. WTI is down 11 at 71.35. Natural gas is 316 up 18. Volatile and bullish. Bitcoin 98,130, 43,000. I would suspect that there are a lot more people looking to sell 1,000, 100,000 in Bitcoin than there were two weeks ago.

That’s why if it gets through 100,000, it’ll probably go to 102,000 before really deciding which way it wants to go. There’s a short book building up right above 100,000, Ethereum 3492 up 127. Oh, 4%. Palladium 998 down 10. Platinum 953 down 11. Gold, silver, a little bit higher in the sell-off, but not as bad as it usually is. Grains, soy 986 up to corn down to 418 and wheat, 555 down 7.5. Okay. What does this constellation mean? It means risk on or more used to mean risk on. What it really means is war hedge off.

Okay. Bonds, let’s not include them into the whole war thing. The dollar, we’re not worried about them. The world coming anymore, sell your dollars. S&P 500, buy your S&P 500. Gold, sell your gold, sell your silver, buy your copper, whatever. WTI, it doesn’t really matter in this because, well, this is Europe. Natural gas does matter. I’m not sure why natural gas is higher. It’s probably weather-related. Bitcoin doing its own thing right now. But when you get to the grains, wheat is weaker. That’s a geopolitical commodity now. And we’re going to dive into that a little bit more specifically, maybe more than you care to deal with.

But this is a risk meeting. So we’re going to discuss risk, why it happened, make some sense of it, and hopefully make things a little bit more clear for the next time it happens. Okay. There’s the front page. Seems a little smaller than usual. Well, there’s Fort Knox. Judy Shelton has an interview with David Morgan, hosted by Arcadia. That’s a very good thing there. Hello, boys. Bullion banks buy calls for the first time in forever. The bullion banks are damaged. We’ll get into that in a second. The world did not end. Okay. We’re going to go through this to hopefully make it, hopefully it’s clear.

We put this together this morning. First of all, we’re going to start with last week. Last week, actually for a couple weeks, but last week in particular, headed into Friday, war fear positioning piled in. Chart number one. There are four markets on here. This chart conveys people hedging war fears. Top left hand side, gold is up. That little rectangle there. Right hand side, the euro gets weaker against the Swiss franc. The dollar gets stronger. Okay. And silver up a tepid because everyone, people are still selling silver to buy gold. So quickly. If you’re in Europe, you’re going to sell your euros and put them into the safer currency, the more responsible country.

And that would be the Swiss franc. And if you’re in Europe and you can get access to dollars, you’re going to take your money and you’re going to put it to dollars or gold. That’s the setup. That’s what people do in geopolitical unrest for war. They also buy the end, but that’s not, that’s not part of the conversation today. Okay. Next. Probably the most important post we put out last week was Friday entitled geopolitical comment, which gave a framework for this potentially happening. And the framework centered around something called the gold Swiss franc link.

UBS put out a report, a quick note on Friday, zero hedge had, had alerted us to that. And we immediately took to it because it’s very relevant to gold. Okay. All right. So there’s the post right there. You can click on that to see it. But here’s an excerpt from what we wrote. The pattern is strong between the Swiss franc and gold and geopolitical type events, geopolitical risk historically for only short durations, Trump, not Donald Trump, Trump, macroeconomic problems. But that was during Pax Americana times. We are no longer in those times.

This is hot, cold war stuff. Meaning, uh, usually, uh, gold will rally and then there’ll be no problem. Then it’ll sell off. But, uh, since the U S is not policing the world as much anymore, actually encouraging things more than usual, you get the whole point. All right. We’ll come back to that in a minute. But Europe is re is determined to fight recession fears. Now here’s where it gets interesting. Okay. The war risk, the risk of war, the fear of escalation makes people buy gold, right? Makes people sell euros and buy Swiss francs in Europe.

We’re focused on Europe here because Europe is a mess. All right. Now, in the note that UBS put out, there’s a comment where the, uh, the, uh, analyst says it feels like speculative investors have bought a lot of Swiss francs this week on the escalation of geopolitical risks to what I just said. While flows on Friday have been mostly Swiss franc selling both versus Euro and U S dollar and mostly for wealth management and real money names. That’s the key phrase there. Real money names. When you see something like this, I want you to think intervention.

Now, why would I say that? Well, let’s chart up. This is the Swiss franc on a one hour chart leading into Friday, weaker, weaker. And then Friday may not be able to see it, but there’s a long wick at the bottom there. And so this is the Euro weakening against the Swiss franc. All right. And then Friday be Friday when their markets open, when their government is working. Well, okay. So now I would say that’s a soft intervention. Real money, right? Not speculators, uh, bought euros and sold Swiss francs. Now, why would they do that? Well, they would do that because Europe and Switzerland, Switzerland’s in Europe, obviously, have a relationship.

And if the Swiss franc gets too strong, then Europe’s Europe gets so weak that they can’t really ease rates to get their economy going. They need to lower rates to get their economy going to keep track with us, right? Because our economy’s really doing well now. And if they can’t lower rates because the Euro’s already in the shitter, well, then they have a problem. Then you have one of those bonds are going to zero, you know, the Euro’s going to zero. Then they start to worry about that. And so they need to stop Europeans from putting their money in Swiss francs.

And so they say to the Swiss, dude, you got to stop letting people buy Swiss francs. And the Swiss go, okay, we’re part of it. We’ll take care of it. Right. And the Swiss will then say, okay, we’re going to encourage people to not own the Swiss franc. Now, geopolitical risks, trump macroeconomic risks for short periods of time. And over the weekend, sure enough, the world didn’t end. And so people are now less worried about having to have their money in Switzerland and the Euro strengthens a little bit and we’ll come back to that.

So that’s the mechanism of what happened over the weekend. And that’s why Sunday night comes to worlds here, they sell gold. That’s what happened, right? And if you’re a macro FX trader, you saw that the Swiss franc on Friday was telling you that unless the world ends, these guys are going to push the Euro back up. And which would mean the dollar is weaker, which would mean that you would sell gold with a vengeance in the past. Now, did they sell with a vengeance? Well, it’s down $35. That’s not, that’s not beans.

You know, that’s not small amount, but it’s really only one and a quarter percent. After the week we had last week with war fears for this to get back one and a quarter percent. Really. There’s just no one who wants a short gold anymore. And then bullion banks are not doing it. Okay. So here we go. So Euro Swiss franc, Euro starts to strengthen against the Swiss franc on Friday, but gold is not Switzerland’s thing. Gold keeps going. Now in the past bullion banks would be like, Oh, look at that. Because they’re very, they’re very FX oriented.

Look at that. All right. Let’s start selling gold. They’ll start hammering gold because they’ll start punting. Okay. Right. And the speculators will be like, Oh, okay. Okay. And they’ll get the signal. But there are no stops to gold’s rise anymore because producers aren’t selling like they used to. Right. Bullion banks are handcuffed. They are handcuffed. And the BIS is there on call, but they’re not going to sell it every day. They’re not going to sell it every dollar. They’re going to sell it if it gets out of control. Next slide. But the world did not end.

Weekend warrior hedges are encouraged to puke. So we’ll go through three of them. Right. The Euro. There’s Friday. Boom. And there’s, this is today. By the way, that’s Euro versus Swiss franc. Gold rally. This is this morning. Right. And this is where we are roughly now. So crawling back up. This is an algo bind. Probably, probably a bullion bank and silver rally tepid because they saw, let’s start selling silver to buy our gold. Right. And now silver gets punished as well. So that’s what happened so far this morning. Next. And this is where I’m saying to you, I’m not telling you, go out and buy gold.

I’m telling you that nothing has changed going back to our geopolitical comment. If, however, the Friday selling is predicting Monday interventionist behavior, which I just showed you it did, then the opposite is true, meaning gold will go down. But either way, gold is resetting higher geopolitically now. Geopolitically. So when the end of the world’s coming, people buy gold. Right. And when the end of the world doesn’t come, they just hammer gold, hammer it. Well, not anymore. It’s that’s, you may say that’s hammer, but that’s not even all of Friday’s move. All of last week was war fears.

OK, so it keeps going down. Sure, I’m concerned. But I’m not that concerned. Yes, yet. OK. Moving on. So here’s our. Where is that? There it is. So here’s our news and analysis from yesterday, from over the last three days. More signs. Volume bank swap. This market makers are crippling, are crippled, emerges. Right. That’s like a preview of this. This is the whole video, a very long video. That’s the commitment of traders analysis, which says, um, bullion banks are participating less in rallies and they actually instigated this rally last week by covering shorts.

Fascinating stuff for me. Uh, Hartnett says Trump 2.0 boom means bid for crypto and gold to continue. That’s a cherry picked line out of that report. But the whole report is very good as he goes through his four biggest trades for 2024. And it gives you gives you some handicapping as if he thinks it’s going to happen in 2025. Trump 2.0 gold in the reset path. That’s that’s a special post. I just put it out there unlocked. Holiday spirit, what have you. Basically, it’s what Trump means for gold in a big picture way and really how it’s all part of the whole geopolitical geoeconomic reset.

And Judy Shelton interviewed by David Morgan on her book book tour. Market news, Trump’s picks. Okay. President-elect Donald Trump. This is beset. Okay. Key for gold. President-elect Donald Trump’s single Friday, his intention to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Besant as his triggered treasury secretary and a move that puts a seasoned market pro and a close Trump loyalist and a critical economic position. Remember, this is by CNBC. They’re not going to be like, and it’s great. They’re not going to do that. Like Trump, Besant favors gradual tariffs and deregulation to push American business and control inflation.

In addition, he has advocated for revival in manufacturing as well as energy independence. This is the man you want with Trump because he’s a corporatist. He’s not so financial. He’s willing to sell treasuries if things aren’t going bad. Good. Right. He’s got a source mindset of free markets. And I’m going to throw this out there. I’m getting ahead of myself trying to cram this in there. But look, Besant knows that Yellen was a moron. What she did was wrong. And he knows that. He knows that when you finance big deficits at the short end of the curve, you make assets bubble higher.

And when you make assets bubble higher, you risk a crash on that end and then you have to keep rolling it. That’s what banana republics do. Besant won’t do that. What Besant will do is he will encourage the short end of the curve to drop and let the long end of the curve go up. But do things fiscally to promote the economy. Now, am I am I pro-Besant? Well, yeah, I’m pro-Besant because I think Besant is the man to throw gold on the yield curve for us. I think Besant is the man who wants to do what Yellen did, but not ignore the long term deficit and finance it by monetizing gold.

I’m not sure yet. I have to look into it. I’ve seen a couple of things on it. And Jordan from The Daily Gold sent me a link to something else. So Besant’s good for gold. OK. And, you know, Trump’s good for gold. Next guy, Howard Ludnick is willing to strengthen his alliance with one of the most important and controversial names in digital asset business. But I’m not going to read. I’m just going to say this. Besant is a geopolitical market pro genius. Right. It’s going to be Machiavellian as well. Don’t think it’s going to be all easy with him.

Ludnick is a market savvy flow trading broker. And so he sees trends and trends that will catch on. He is he understands influence. OK, so. You don’t want to be anti Bitcoin if he’s saying Treasuries can be used to buy Bitcoin, Bitcoin can be used to buy, you know, whatever. You just want to be careful if you’re playing that short Bitcoin game, whether you love it or hate it. Daddling the deck GDP, PC, in the holiday. Right. So we have a crammed up Wednesday with GDP and PC and then Thanksgiving on Thursday.

And in premium, we have the week ahead by see CIBC. Here, I’ll give you a show you a little quote from that. A few billion doesn’t buy you much these days. Don’t worry, Elon, that title doesn’t apply to an individual with billions to spend. We’re referencing what this week’s multibillion dollar package from Canada’s federal government might mean for the economy and its growth rate ahead. So it’s a good opening. It’s nice little story there. And there it is again, checking on the markets a little bit more. Let’s go with gold. OK, so there’s your 50 day moving average.

Right. The first time down, the first time through it, we went up. The first time down, it was bought. Interesting. Who are the shorts that we buy this? Bullion banks. Are the macro discretionary buying it? They could be. One thing I did say on Friday was if we get above here, then the measured move from here to here is on. We’re not above there yet. But so just keep your eye. If we if it’s kind of like this below the 50 day moving average. No. Above this, yes. OK, so in here we have a new dead zone.

Call it twenty seven fifty to twenty six fifty. OK, we have a hundred dollar dead zone. It’s a nice little market to have there. Now, Vince, have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lance. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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