Even with all of that, Joe Biden only managed to squeak by, to quote, win by 40,000 votes. Let that hit you. The size of a town. He won by 10,000 in Arizona, 10,000 in Georgia, 20,000 in Wisconsin. So keep that in mind. November 3rd, Biden won by just 40,000 votes. It was the second closest election in American history, second only, I believe, to 2000 of Bush Gore. Now, take a look at this. We’re looking at it there. No, no, no. Back, back, boys. There you go. Excellent. The real clear politics average in 2020, okay, that that’s the RCP.

That’s the averaging out of all the different polls out there. The good, the bad, the ugly. The RCP average had Biden plus 7.2 over Trump back in 2020. That’s the RCP aggregate, all the different polling. Okay. All averaged out and Biden came out plus 7.2. Harris today, that same RCP average has a lead of 1.5. She’s been stubbornly stuck around that 1.5 range, by the way, for the last four weeks. So you’ll note that that differential between the Democrat lead in 2020 and the Democrat lead today represents, and you’ll see it there with the R plus 5.7, it represents a 5.7% swing to the Republican, a 5.7 swing to Trump.

In other words, Trump is doing nearly six points better than he was doing in 2020. Now, you look down and you see 538. Now, 538, if you don’t know, they’re the most liberal of the polling aggregates, but this is what they had. This is what they gave Biden back in 2020. Averaging out all their polls, they gave Biden an 8.4% lead over Trump. Okay. And by the way, Biden, quote, won by just half of that, okay, 4%. So they were pretty off. But regardless, all right, today, today, 2024, according to the 538, Harris has a 2.8 lead.

Once again, what does that represent? Notice a 5.6% swing to Trump. This is why I said you want to write these numbers down. These are fascinating. Almost identical to what the RCP average has in terms of swing. They both are nearly six point swings to Trump. Then we have, and I want to introduce this to you. We have on point. Now, if you don’t know, the polling aggregate on point has Biden up, had Biden up 5.3 in 2020. That was within a point of what he won in 2020. Biden, again, quote, won by 4.5. So the on point polling aggregate came within 0.8%.

8 of nailing the 2020 election. They were certainly on point. That’s how accurate they were. They were by far the single most accurate of the polling aggregates in 2020. Look at where they have the race today. The single most accurate polling aggregate of 2020 has Trump in the lead. This is again with all the polls aggregate. Now, the reason why they have difference, not all of them have the same polls. They’ll bring another poll. That’s why this is so important, this exercise. This is literally representing all the polls if we take RCP 538 on point, right? So on point has their own collection of polls that they aggregate.

And according to their aggregated polling, Trump’s in the lead. And it’s not that he’s just in the lead. Trump’s pretty good. He’s got a 2.3% lead. And that represents, according to their numbers, a 7.6% a near eight point swing to Trump. Pretty cool. But it gets even better. Now, what you do is you average out those swings to find out the total polling aggregate average with virtually all the polls out there. So you take the 5.7 swing from RCP average. You take the 5.6 swing from 538. You take the 7.6 swing from on point. And you average it all out.

And what do you get? You see it below. You get an average of a 6.3 swing to Trump. 6.3 swing in this election. From 2024 to 2024. Now, you might want to write that number down. 6.3 because we’re going to do a little magic here. Last bit of math. As we said in 2020, the popular vote was Biden plus 4.5. And so all we do, as you see in this, all we do is adjust that with the 6.3 swing to Trump to get the estimated popular vote for 2020. What I like about this method is it’s combining polls with the actual election turnout.

That’s why 2020 is so important there. So what we’re basically doing here is we are subtracting Biden’s 4.5 from Trump’s 6.3. And what do we get? We get a near plus 2 Trump electorate for 2024. We got the swings. We average out the swings. We get a Trump plus 6.3. We subtract Biden’s swing that he got, as it were, the margin he got, 4.5 from the 6.3. And we get a near plus 2 Trump electorate for 2024. Trump, 1.8. Plus 1.8. Now, notice, gang. Seriously. Take notice. This is so freaking cool. Hey, gang. With everything going on right now, it’s hard to say what could happen or what will happen.

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It’s nearly exactly what the on-point aggregate, remember the most accurate poll aggregator for 2020, it’s almost to the number what they got for their swing to Trump. They’ve got Trump at 2.3 ahead. The averaged out numbers are Trump 1.8. So the averaged out numbers are .5 near the on-point plus 2 Trump electorate. So what does a 1.8 Trump electorate look like on the electoral map? You may be asking. Ah, you guys already did. All right, Josh, you’re ahead of me. Awesome. We’ll see for yourself. There it is. That’s what a 1.8 Trump plus 1.8 Trump electorate looks like.

It is Trump winning the electoral votes with eight more than he won in 2016. That is what the electoral map looks like as of today when you average out literally all of the polling. Not this poll versus that poll. No cherry picking, nothing. You average out all the polling and that’s the map you’re looking at in November. Oh, but it gets better. Oh, it gets so much better. Even if we got rid of the on-point aggregate, the one that shows Trump in the lead by two points, even we got rid of that and we just kept the RCP and the 538 polling aggregates that both show Kamala with a slight lead.

The average swing to Trump comes out as 5.65, which means that it’s still a plus 1.2 Trump electoral map. And the way that works, of course, is that Trump always ends up outperforming his polling. That’s why it’s so important to have the 2020 actual election results percentages in our total as we assess these things. Either way, if we just take the two aggregates that have Kamala in the lead or we take all three of the aggregates, either way, it’s Trump plus one or Trump plus two electorate, both of which represent an electoral landslide. Now, let’s test the predictive accuracy of this sort of meta model.

Remember, the election has already started. We vote by mail and start in North Carolina, start in Florida. So we already have real-time data as to how the election is playing out. So how well does this model that predicts this plus two Trump electorate, how well is it jiving with what’s happening in the actual vote? Because we got the numbers. Thank you. [tr:trw].

See more of Dr. Steve Turley on their Public Channel and the MPN Dr. Steve Turley channel.