Summary
➡ The new regime in Syria and Hezbollah are at odds due to religious differences, with the former being Sunni and the latter Shia. The Syrian regime has been accused of severe human rights abuses, including starvation tactics. Russia’s involvement in Syria, initially to secure a monopoly on Syrian gas, is now uncertain as the new regime may not honor previous agreements. There’s speculation that Israel may be expanding its influence in the Syrian Golan, potentially providing a safe haven for Druze and Bedouins.
➡ The article discusses the complex situation in Syria and Lebanon, where villages are connected by family ties and marriages. The future of these countries is uncertain due to potential changes in government, with fears of a strict Islamic regime causing unrest. The economy is unstable, with many people using dollars or bartering goods due to fluctuating currency values. The article ends with a discussion about the impact of media on public perception and the current tense calm in the region.
Transcript
Hey guys, Raf here from the End Game investor. And today I have a special guest. Dr. Mordechai Kedar, also known as Moti Kedar. He is an Orientalist and lecturer in the Department of Arabic at Bar Ilan University. A research fellow at the Begin Sadat center for Strategic Studies. He served for 25 years in Saha on the IDF Military Intelligence specializing in Syria, Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and Israeli Arabs. I just wanted to say on a personal note that I’m excited and honored to have Dr. Kedar on this show because as a kid, I remember during the second intifada around 2002, 2001, 2002, and people would pop up on the mainstream media all the time back when I used to watch it.
And I breathe a sigh of relief whenever Dr. Kar would come on, would, would come on because I knew it would be important and he’d actually say things that made sense. So it’s really an honor to have you and thank you for coming on. Thank you, AI, for having me here. I’m honored. Good. So what I wanted to ask you, I’m just going to ask you one long question and let you go and, and do your thing. So basically this is. This is a monetary channel. We focus on economics. And as people know who follow me, I live in what some people would call southern Syria.
You can call it what you want, it doesn’t really matter to me. But I live in the Golan and Israel apparently just conquered the Syrian section of the Golan. And there’s a lot going on here, a lot of political vacuums, a lot of power vacuums going on. We have Syria, we have Hezbollah, which is maybe on its last legs. Who knows? Turkey is involved, Iran is involved, the WHO team. Also, this is a whole toxic soup and very few people understand how it all fits together. And one of those few people is, is Dr. Kedar. So my question basically is this.
What is happening in Syria. How is Turkey involved in this? And on the economic angle, none of these countries that are involved here have any functioning monetary system. The Turkish lira is in a death spiral. It’s been in a death spiral for a while. There basically is no Lebanese pound or Lebanese lira or whatever it’s called. Syria has no functioning money. Iran is also its currency. Doesn’t really work. How do these countries function? And, and is Russia going to be involved in this? Because they’re, they’re arguably in charge of Iran, which is in charge of Hezbollah, which is.
Was in charge of Syria, the Houthi over there. How does, how does all this work out? And, and how is money involved? Well, to say the least, I’m not an expert about economy money. If I, if I was an expert, my economic situation would be better. But what happens in these countries? By the way, the Lebanese lira me of the county. It’s worth today 0.0004 of the Israeli shekel. This interview with Dr. Mordechai Keydar is brought to you by the dirty man safe. Before the dollar turns into 0.00004 ounces of gold, you should probably get a dirty man safe to store some real money in it.
So that when the dollar does collapse, you will have the most liquid commodity in the world with which to ac. And that way you won’t have to sell your internal organs or food or get a dirty man. Save for the most paranoid of your stacking friends. Use code ENDGAME10 at checkout for 10% off your order link in the description below means 04 of the Israeli Agora. Okay, so this is the the Lebanese lira. Once it was way higher when Lebanon was the Switzerland of the Middle East. I’m Talking about the 60s and the 70s of the last century.
But since then it only deteriorated economically, socially, politically and whatever concerns security. Because this country fell into the hands of the Ayatollahs of Iran and their proxy Hezbollah and Amal and all the rest is the the black history and unfortunate history of Lebanon. Syria as well was a functioning country under Hafiz Assad. He brought the country to stability in 1970 when he took the the country over. Yet his son failed in running the country, especially vis a vis the Arab Spring which started in 2011. And ever since then the country is only in deteriorating and the the neighbors actually are like vouchers which actually poke into it and eat to eat parts.
And what we saw especially Turkey. Turkey fights against the Kurds in Northern Syria because the Kurds want autonomy at least, if not also all the way independence. But Turkey or Erdogan views this thing as a threat. So he actually occupies parts of Syria, as a matter of fact, and he acts daily against the courts with his army, fights and people get killed. And he actually prepared this revolution in the area of Idlib to the southwest from Aleppo. He actually gave them money and weapons and ammunition. He trained them, he protected them from the Syrian army. And they waited very patiently until 27 November means less than a month.
And they bursted out and within eight days or nine days, they toppled the remnants of the Syrian army and took over the country. You’re saying that Erdogan is responsible for this revolution, at least militarily. He is the godfather and the midwife and the sponsor and everything of this revolution. He is behind it. He made it, he helped it, he did whatever he could in order to make it successful. And this is actually his long arm, this revolution. No doubt. He’s Islamists. They are Islamists. And both actually Erdogan and Giuliani, the. The leader of this revolution are both.
They see the world from the same lens as Islamists against the infidels, the Alawis who controlled Syria, Assad family and formerly the Jidid. Since 1966, Syria is governed by Allawis. And this is against Islam because Alois are viewed by Muslims as. As idol worshippers. Those. Who is that? That’s a different religion. Aloism is a religion. What is it? Yes, definitely it is a religion, a rather strange religion which combines elements from. From Eastern Christianity, from Shi, Islam and the ancient creeds which were in this area for thousands of years before Judaism came to the world. So the religion, if you want, we can dedicate one meeting to the religion of the Alawis, because now, now it’s exposed after centuries, which it was clandestine because they.
The. The Alawis, just like the Druze were hiding their religion or the secrets of the. Of the religion in order to protect themselves from the wrath of the Muslims. They call it esoteric religions. So this is the. This is what happened. So this Allah is not only the. They don’t have the right to rule according to Islam. There is a big question if they have at all the right to live. Because idol worshipers in Islam have usually the choice between converting to Islam or being shortened by head. And this is the problem. They were fighting for the connection between their heads and shoulders rather than fighting for the government.
Yes, the government was a tool in order for them, in order to save their lives from the knives of the Muslims and they know it very well. And now the Muslims took over and everybody is afraid of massacres which might occur in Syria against the Alawis and against the Druze. Don’t forget that the Alawis were very cruel against and vicious by the way which they treated the Muslim majority. We saw the massacres in Hamat, in the town of Hamat in February of 1982. We saw the massacre since 2011. And millions of Syrians were forced to run away from Syria.
And now they are all over the world. Something between half a million and a million got butchered by the, by the security organizations of the Assad regime. So definitely they have a lot to take revenge for before other things. So the Alawis today are shaking and shivering from the new government or new regime which is rather Islamist like ISIS or at least Al Qaeda people and who are have a full stomach against them. There’s the Alawis because of what happened. I’m talking, we are talking now on Thursday, December 26. Yesterday there were clashes already in the Alawi district, which is in western Syria overlooking the the Mediterranean Sea, in the towns of Latakia, Tartus and Banias.
And so today there is a whole curfew on these cities. And now the new regime is looking for the people who were involved in the oppression of the Assad regime. Means judges and people walked in in the prisons of Sidney and others in Damascus, those who were actually physically involved in torturing, killing, burning and whatever you can, you can think about against the population. Okay, I’m not saying that I have a quick question. Just something I’m a little bit confused about. Maybe you can clear it up. So I’ve been hearing in various, I don’t know, media sources.
I don’t even know where I get them from, like Twitter. I don’t really watch the media straight anymore. So I heard that that the new regime in Syria and Hezbollah hate each other. But you’re saying that the new regime is Islamist pushing away the the Allah, the Alawites or the Alawis, but Hezbollah is Islamist too. So how is it that the two Islamists hate each other more than the Islamists versus the allow what’s going on? Because the Islamists who control Syria today are Sunni while Hezbollah is Shia. So Shia allies itself with Allawi is more. Yes.
Easier than it was ally with other Muslims. As I told you. As I told you, the, the Alawi religion includes elements SHI elements. So the Shia could, you know, in a way or another digested or accept it in a way or another. And that’s actually what happened. The Sunnah is not only against the Alawis, against the Shia as well. So if the Alawi religion includes SHI elements so definitely it is totally unacceptable by Sunnis. And this is another reason for the fight between the Islamists who took Syria over and the Hezbollah which was actually butchering them during the years of 2014, 15, 16 when Hezbollah was in deeply involved in what happens in Syria.
And they have all kinds of methods how to, how to defeat the Sunnah. They had a very vicious way they were surrounding villages like for Madaya and others and just that let them die out of hunger because they didn’t allow any food, water, medicine to come into these villages. And this is how these villages actually were occupied after everybody died out of hunger. So this is how Hezbollah treated the Syrians. And now the Syrians when they are talking about chasing Hezbollah, they know exactly what they do it and, and Hezbollah people today are, are feeling very bad and I wouldn’t be willing to be the life in life insurance agent of any Hezbollah man today.
So the part of Syria that Israel invaded, what, what is that? How big is it? Is it bigger than our part of the Golan? Are we going to stay there? Is Israel going to stay there? And can this is it, is it out of the question or is it crazy thinking that think that, that the Ukraine and Russia conflict going on there now can somehow bridge up with this conflict over here because Russia has interests here. I mean I’m not, I’m not pushing for World War III or anything, but this seems like a potential what could it unite into one big conflict? What are the chances of that? No, I, I, I don’t think that there will be a world war because of what happened.
Because the Russian axis means Russia, Iran, China, North Korea turned to be a rather fragile axis. Iran was attacked by Israel. Iran is exposed. And I didn’t see that Russia is running to save Iran. I, Iran supports Russia with the drones and the missiles against Ukraine. And I don’t see the Russians so committed to the Iranian octopus tentacles like in Syria or in Lebanon or in Gaza. Iran was more or less abandoned by Russia because Russia has its own concerns and problems in Ukraine. And there is something with a very heavy economic implication which will happen in Syria.
And this needs some explanation. Russia, when they started to bomb the Islamists for Assad, when they moved their units to the, the air base in Khmeim in Syria and the navy to Tartus and Latakia, they and, and especially when they started to bomb the Islamic neighborhoods of Aleppo, it was not for free, because with the Russians there is no free lunch. What happened is that Bashar Assad gave them a monopoly on the Syrian gas in the sea. Because according to all kinds of estimations, Syria has more gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean, more than Israel has.
And Israel apparently has a lot. Syria has more. And in return of the fact that the Russians saved Bashar in 2014, 15, 16 against ISIS, Assad gave them a monopoly on the Syrian gas for 99 years. Means he actually gave them. Gave them the Syrian gas. This is what this was the incentive of the Russians to save Basharasa. They didn’t like Bashar, but the fact that they got to put their hand on the Syrian gas in the seabed of the Mediterranean, this was the big deal which the Russians actually achieved. However, they are now afraid that the new regime which took over and kicked out Bashar Assad will tell them, will tell the Russians.
You have an agreement with Bashar Assad. Go to Bashar Assad and settle with him. We don’t know about this. We did not agree about this. He sold our gas for. In order to save himself and his family. We are not part of it. We don’t recognize it. And go and ask Bashar. You host him anyway in Moscow. Go settle with him the debt. We are not going to take it into any consideration. And forget about this guest. This is what Russia apparently either already heard or is going to hear, because the new regime will not pay even one penny for those who saved Bashar Assad.
And the whole Russian calculation about having the Syrian gas was actually collapsed. And this does not contribute to Putin’s economic stability or his legitimacy. I would even say in Russia. And this is why today what the Russians are doing, that they are afraid that the Islamists will also kick them out from the harbors which they have in Latakia, in Tartus. And these are apparently the only harbors which Russ Russia has in hot water means not under the. The ice. In the ice which they have in the Northern Sea or wherever they have. And now the Russians actually are moving to Libya because Libya is also in the Mediterranean hot water.
And the Russians are afraid that the Islamists will attack their ships. After all, the Russians took part in the oppression system of. Of Assad and they have a long account with the Islamists. So apparently the Russians do not feel anymore so secure in, in. In. In Syria and they are looking for different and alternative places to settle. And apparently Libya will be the Next destination of the, of the Russians. So this, this development is very important from the economic point of view because the Russia is one of the three players in the global gas market, which includes also Iran and Qatar.
Russia wanted to be even stronger player with a Syrian gas. Apparently they lost it, but yet they are still one of the most most influential players in this market. Israel is not one of the biggest, although Israel has some part in this, but definitely Russia is much bigger. Qatar and Iran. Okay, now we have to see what happens in the world because instability in Syria doesn’t contribute to anything in the world. And as for the part of Syria that Sahel that the IDF is in right now, how big is that? Is that bigger than our part of the Golan? And do you think Sahl is going to stay there? And do you think that this area of the world is safer now or less safe than it was before Assad felt? Well, since it was published in Arab media, I can speak about it.
Today the IDF sent some tanks and troops into actually the town of the Bath, which is a suburb of Quneitra. This is the main city of the Syrian state in the Golan. And when this state, this city is occupied by the IDF at least partially, this actually indicates something. And what I think this indicates the fact that Israel actually tries to broaden its influence in the Syrian Golan on Syrian part of the Golan maybe in order to provide a safe haven for the Druze and the Bedouins in Daraa means that Israel will contribute to the declaration of independence or autonomy which the Druze and the Bedouins in Da’a might declare while they are not willing or because of their unwillingness to be under the ISIS like or Al Qaeda like government in Damascus, just like the Kurdish minority in the north east or the Alawites in the north West.
So, so you’re saying that the, the Syrian Golan could. Is what you’re saying that the Syrian Golan could become a separate country that might be allies with Israel and that would also be good for the Druze here in our part of the Golan? I mean my wife works with them and I mean she’s a, she’s a gymnastics teacher. But a lot of the, a lot of the, the PE teachers, the, the, the Hitam loot teachers in, in the Golan are also Druzim and she noticed that they’re, they’re really excited about this because they could, they might be able to get to see their families again.
So do you see that happening? Look, the four villages, the Those villages in the Golan which are Majd Al Shams, Masad in Kenya. And the fourth one is, I forgot his name. They are connected family ties with, with the Druze villages which are to the east in the Hermon, the slopes in the southern and the eastern slopes of the Hermon, which actually part of Syria. The. It’s called the enclave of Hader. Hader is the biggest village over there. And this is the center of this village. Yes, and there are many cases of marriage between these, these villages.
And definitely if the border is erased, they will enjoy it. The question is not only this, the question is will. Will Syria as a country will remain consolidated, will remain united. Because don’t forget that there are at least three minorities which definitely would like not to be under Islamist Al Qaeda like or ISIS like government. I’m talking about the Alawites who are considered as infidels, as I mentioned the Kurds, which are not Arabs. They don’t want to be under the Arab yoke. And the Druze in the south, who are also not Muslims. They are Arabs, but they’re not Muslims.
And. And they actually were part indivisible part of the Assad regime. And now they are afraid from the revenge which might come from the Islamists. And anyway they are chased and persecuted for a thousand years since the Druze religion started to be active. So they all the reasons to try to leave Syria. If Syria becomes hyper Islamic country led by ISIS like or Al Qaeda like people. And this apparently what will happen, I really don’t know what, what would be in the future. But this is actually the two main causes which Syria can take. One is to be inclusive, to be, you know, moderately acting vis a vis all the minorities hugging in order to make sure that we all feel comfortable under the Syrian umbrella of diversities.
On the other poll is that the government will be like Afghanistan or hyper Islamic extreme Islamic government which nobody would like to live under, especially Alawites and Druze. So the more strict they will be with Islam, the more are the chances that the country will fall apart or will be willing to fall apart. And if they will, as, as already today, we can sing that the new regime in Syria actually is dispersing demonstrations in the street, with fire, with gunfire. It happened yesterday, people in Homs were demonstrating. So the, the new God, the new police actually shot some people dead only yesterday.
And they trying to maintain law and order with heavy force. And it’s actually what reminds us of what happened with Assad in the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011 when the armed spring erupted in Syria and the government treated the demonstrators in very harsh way, killing them in the streets. And the funerals became demonstrations and they killed the other people, you know, from the demonstrations. So the next day they were funerals, which turned into demonstrations and so forth. And this art what happened, it might happen now. And instead of Assad killing his people, it will be the Islamics, the Islamists killing their own people.
Okay, so the dictatorship is a dictatorship. Yeah, I understand that. The last question I’ll ask you and then we’ll go on with our day, is how, how do people live in these countries? What do you know about just daily life in Syria or Lebanon and these Arab countries without a functioning currency? What, what do people use? What money do they use? Do they use gold and silver? Do they use dollars? How do they trade if there’s no money? Yeah, many of them are using dollars. By the way, there is a big industry of forging dollars in Syria and in Lebanon.
They were actually trying to do barter transactions. Means you give me this, I give you that. Yeah, means to exchange goods other than money, because in the morning, the, the value of the money is different from the evening. And all kinds of such things, especially real estate for years already, are being sold by dollars. Means the calculation is by dollars. Nobody mentions the Lebanese lira, the Syrian lira, when in big transactions, everybody talks about dollars and then they translate it to the everyday exchange rate. Yeah, so that, that makes sense. So one of the, one of the main theses that I have, especially on this channel, is that the dollar being the reserve currency, what is keeping these countries together, or you could say their borders together or trade together at all, is the fact that they still have dollars.
But when the dollar falls, and it will fall eventually, then what are they going to use? And, and my, my supposition is that they will have to use gold and silver initially. It’ll take some time for them to get some, or get enough of it to trade, but that’s what’s going to have to happen. So that’s, that’s what I call the end game. And I’m just, just waiting for the dollar to fall and then we’ll see what really happens to these, to these countries with all these artificial borders that were created after World War I. And, and they should dissolve and then we’ll see what the real new Middle east is going be along with the new world.
And it’s, it’s exciting, it’s scary. And to be in southern Syria or the Golan, right Now in Israel is. Is pretty exciting. I almost. I was thinking about evacuating on October 7th because I didn’t know it was going to happen. I thought maybe Kisbal was going to invade or something, so I had to run away. I ended up not. I stayed here. But now there’s. There’s a new feeling of calm. It’s a tense calm, but people are. People are breathing a sigh of relief and we’re feeling better. I mean, how are you in Ranana getting any rockets? Of course, when the Houthis are sending to the center, everybody here in the Sharon and the Gurdan are running to the shelters.
Yet, you know, it’s a statistic weapon. And actually the Houthis are playing on our nerves because, you know, you cannot defeat a country with missiles, can hit it, but you cannot defeat. However, the Israeli society, which became more resilient during the war, still is being controlled by the panic of the media, which the media tries to. To spread all over the country. And this is actually how the Israeli media, the mainstream media, actually serves. Serve the Houthis, formerly Hamas and the others, and. And now they are serving the food is unfortunately. Yeah, yeah, that’s how it is.
Once you realize that truth, it’s a lot less threatening. If you buy into the mainstream media, it’s a lot more scary. But, you know, once you let them go, it kind of frees your mind a little bit. All right, thank you. Thank you, Dr. Kdar, so much for coming on the show. And I’ll send you a link and all your links at the bottom. Your websites, the. And your social media and your YouTube channel will all be on the bottom if you want to HEAR More from Dr. Kedar. And thank you for coming and have a Shabbat shalom and hope to see you again soon.
Thank you, Rafi.
[tr:tra].
See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.
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