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Summary

➡ Dan from I Allegedly discusses the current state of commercial real estate, revealing that many banks are admitting to having a large number of non-performing commercial loans. He also talks about the struggles of Spirit Airlines, which is cutting routes within the United States but maintaining a risky flight to Haiti. Additionally, he mentions the potential impact of a new currency called the ‘unit’ being developed by the BRICS nations, which could affect the gold markets. Lastly, he mentions a recall of 1.4 million vehicles by Honda due to a tie rod issue.
➡ This text discusses various topics including a recall of Honda and Acura vehicles due to engine failure, Elon Musk’s potential plans to cut government spending, Party City’s financial struggles and bankruptcy of its owned company Anagram, a survey showing preference for smaller retailers over big-name stores, the bankruptcy of Alitalia Airlines, and the banning of plastic shampoo bottles in New York. It also mentions Art Garfunkel’s regret over a 20-year feud with Paul Simon, and the trend of musicians selling their song catalogs.

 

Transcript

Hey it’s Dan. Welcome back to I Allegedly. And I’ve got a good one for you today because it’s time to go back to work. And man oh man there’s a lot to cover today. Please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, make sure the notification is turned on, and today we have a sponsor Patriot Gold. Now starting off commercial real estate. Let’s start there. What you’re seeing is you’re seeing a huge amount of banks that are now admitting all of a sudden this week, hey we have huge exposure to commercial loans that are not performing well.

Well what does that mean? Well you have some people that are severely delinquent, which means they’re 90 to 120 days old. One third of all banks, one third, have commercial real estate loans in their arsenal that are not performing. Think about that. The banks that have less than ten billion dollars in assets are the ones that could be in jeopardy of going out of business completely. Michael Lembeck is my go-to guy when it comes to you know real estate that is any multiple units. Two units or more. Michael’s the guy to talk to about that.

He has a great newsletter. If you guys want to see it let me know and I’ll hook you up with Michael’s newsletter. But it’s great news and it’s and it’s talking about how bad this is and commercial backed securities. Think about this guys. The default rate went up 90% over the last year. 90% just keeps creeping up. Keeps creeping up. You cannot avoid this now and it’s gonna have to be dealt with as we move forward. So what does this mean? It means that you’re going to see places that people are paying rent for that they’re just gonna lose and these banks and it’s not one bank five banks hundreds of banks when you read the articles below that have these problems.

That is wild guys you know this mythical soft landing that we’re going to have in the economy I don’t know what you guys live through but what I live through is reality and I live through banks that are not you know you know funding people they’re not doing regular loans credit card rates right now are being played with in a big way and you’re seeing commercial credit get cut off in many different ways now think about this commercial credit is not just a loan from a bank it is you know your suppliers and hey listen we’re not letting you go to 45 days anymore you know we’re gonna cut it we’re gonna cut it off we’re not gonna let you get extended to 25,000 it’s only gonna be 20.

That is credit, guys, that, whether you believe it or not—and the thing that people, you know, people have written me lately—do not borrow yourself to pay off debt right now. Just don’t. Negotiate it, talk to people, but if you’re going to move a project forward—and, you know, I’ve had people write me in the last 24 hours. I don’t know why I’ve gotten multiple people to write me and say, “Never borrow money, don’t borrow money for your business ever.” Well, if you have a project, give a big contract, or something that’s gonna move forward, I’ll give you an example: let’s say you could make a hundred thousand dollars from this, but you gotta come up with, you know, thirty thousand dollars now upfront to be able to fulfill this contract. Well, that’s a worthy investment, guys. You just need to be disciplined and pay off the 30 grand when you move the project forward. And a lot of people don’t do that, you know? They just can’t. “Yeah, you know, well, you know, the payment is on that, it’s really cheap, Dan. We’re just gonna keep it.” Don’t.

Okay, the next thing is, this is twofold: Spirit Airlines. Spirit Airlines is cutting routes here in the United States, and they’ve been in the news, you know, in the last 24 hours for two things. Well, they’re gonna cut some routes from Charlotte to Los Angeles, and Los Angeles to Dallas, and Dallas to this area. I mean, it’s insane—this discount, no-frills bus, okay? I’m telling you, the bus is more enjoyable than Spirit Airlines is to Dan, okay? Let’s put it that way. Now, what’s crazy is, they have a flight from Miami to Haiti, and it was under fire. They had shots fired on it, and I’m like, “God, that’s crazy. You could hear the bullets?” No—a stewardess got hit in the, you know, in the arm. What? Okay, you want to keep Haiti? Hey, listen, you know, again, corporate executives, get out of the ghetto, guys. Get out of—get out of hell, Haiti. Let’s fly to Haiti, okay? Come on, guys, is that insane?

So, you know, think about this—they have a warlord there that runs Haiti right now. He goes by the nickname of “Barbecue.” Okay, I’m not making this up. So, Haiti is on the list still, but Charlotte, oh, whoa, North Carolina? Pass. Los Angeles? Let’s get rid of that too. So there’s over 24 flights that have been eliminated, but you can fly to Haiti, okay? Wonder how that stewardess feels about this. Think she’d take the Charlotte to LA flight over Miami to Port-au-Prince? What do you think about that?

So again, guys, you haven’t seen anything yet. This is the beginning of this; there’s a ton to cover in this video, and it just—it’s nuts, guys, it’s absolutely nuts right now. But the thing about the real estate sector is that you’re going to see the interest rates stay high right now, which is going to kill a lot of things. Now, it’s funny—I looked at a house yesterday. I’m thinking, “You know what, this would be really cool,” showed it to a few of my friends. “Oh yeah, I could totally see living in that house.” How about this: I called my insurance person. “Can we get homeowners insurance on this house?” “No, can’t get it. Can’t get it on that house.”

Okay, so by—think about this. This is going to kill real estate. Things like this—just gonna kill it. Now, you can sit there and say, “Oh Dan, you know, it’s gotta be something about the house, you know, it had to have, you know, it had to be on the cliff, it had to be stupid, it had to be in a fire zone.” No, guys, it’s just a regular house, okay? And can’t get it. Won’t get it. They won’t even quote it. Okay, so there is a program here in California called FAIR, where it’s state-run insurance, and the state-run insurance is a joke, because, like one agent told me, “It’s not fair, it’s not free, and the policy covers nothing.” So you’re basically on your own if you go out and do that. So if you do this and you move forward on this, you’re gonna, you know, you’re gonna be on your own.

And I’m telling people, “Hey, go self-insure, go just pay cash for the house, go do that stuff.” That’s insane, guys. It’s insane, absolutely insane. But real estate as a whole is going to get killed during this time. You’ll see—you’ll see. There are certain things that are gonna get worse before they get better, and one thing that’s going to be is the real estate industry. Mark my words. Let me know what you think so far about this.

Okay, let’s talk about our sponsor, Patriot Gold Group. While we were all sidetracked with the election last week, one thing that was happening is the BRICS nations are trying to set up their own currency called the “Unit,” and the Unit is going to basically de-dollarize our currency and not use it. It’s going to be gold-backed by about 40%, and if this in fact takes place, it’s going to be huge for the gold markets. You need to contact Patriot Gold today: 888-330-1431. They’re number one rated for eight years in a row, but think about this staggering statistic: we are in debt $100,000 a second. It’s unbelievable, guys. You’ve got to get yourself a hedge against all of this, and that is precious metals, guys. Call number one rated for a reason, Patriot Gold Group, 888-330-1431. I am not just a spokesman; I am a client of theirs. I love the company, but their customer service is number one rated for a very good reason. Contact number one rated Patriot Gold Group today. Use the link below or give them a phone call, but do it today.

Here comes the cavalry. Here’s something that’s completely fascinating, and that is I used to think that auto recalls were always done by the manufacturer, and the manufacturer was the reason that they were called. They did the math, and they said, “Hey, wait a second, you know, if we let this go, it’s going to cost us X amount of dollars. Let’s recall the vehicle, and we’ll do all the repairs.” It’s economics, right? Well, wait a second. The National Highway Traffic Safety Association gets complaints every year, and Honda is going to recall another 1.4 million vehicles because of a tie rod that connects to the motor and makes engine failure happen. And they had a hundred and seventy-three complaints this year to where they instigated the recall and said, “This is ridiculous, you know, people could get hurt.”

But think about this: you go out, and you buy a vehicle, and you’re just some complaining Ken or complaining Karen. “Oh, I drove up a curb, and the axle fell off, and I thought the car would be tougher than that.” I’m not talking about shenanigans, because people complain about their lunch and will do it in writing and things like that. But this is something that you have a 2016 to 2022 car—that’s to say, Honda Pilot, Acura, the TLX—I mean, the stuff is too new to have issues. It shouldn’t have issues. So what do they do? They recall these vehicles, and they just recalled 40,000 vehicles, which sounds like a lot, but not compared to 1.4 million vehicles. My gosh, this is off the chain.

But this is the thing—so if you have a problem and you have a good mechanic, that’s the thing it would take. It would take somebody to sit there and go, “Hey, this vehicle is too new for this to happen under normal driving conditions. You shouldn’t have a failure like this.” Well, that’s where you want to contact the National Highway Traffic Safety Association and file a complaint. So, kind of wild that this is what happens now.

Couple things—you know, we’ve talked a lot about Elon Musk lately, and a few things is that he wants to get in the government business. And, you know, one thing that he is concerned about is who’s gonna run the Federal Reserve. He says, “Hey, wait a second, you can’t sit there and say that Jerome Powell can’t be fired. Of course Jerome Powell can be fired.” So he’s saying that, which sheds light on it. If this guy opens his mouth as the richest man in the world, you can’t—you can’t just tell us you’re not going to do anything about this. And then the other thing is—think about this, and again, to have a conversation with this guy, to sit down, you know, undisturbed, not, “Hey, I have a question,” but to have a meal with this guy or a drink with this guy would be amazing, because he feels, from our budget, that he can trim two trillion dollars off our debt immediately and off the budget. Isn’t that wild to think about? What are you gonna cut, Elon? Read the articles below.

But waste and excess—you know, when you hear about things like Boeing, Boeing right now settles their dispute with the machinists, and 34,000 machinists get to go back to work. But, you know what they announced yesterday? They’re gonna lay off 17,000 people, because they are financially having a difficult—having difficulty, and have to trim the fat right now. That is wild, guys. So, congratulations, you guys are coming back, and you guys over there, you’re all going, you know?

So one thing that’s been brought to light lately is all the excess spending, and when you have a soap dispenser that they’re paying nine grand for, that’s insane. So what is Elon gonna do for this? Seriously, I mean, it’s gonna be crazy to sit there and think about this guy stepping forward and cleaning house. I mean, I’m seriously looking forward to this. So let me know what you think about this so far.

Everybody’s happy. Every now and then, you hear about something that’s preposterous, and you go, “Wow, that’s really stupid, I can’t believe that happened.” Party City is a store, a party store, that your friends, your wives, people go shop at for parties. But lately, it’s been suffering because people don’t have money to spend big-time on parties. Think about this—they made so much money selling balloons that they should buy the balloon and helium company Anagram. So, Anagram, a company that Party City owns, just filed for bankruptcy. Well, that’s gotta be—that’s gotta mess up your financials a little bit, but it shows you the state of that business where it’s completely upside down. So Anagram’s filing bankruptcy.

Another great retail story is they did a survey for the holidays and said, “Listen, are you gonna shop the big-name stores or smaller stores?” And 73% of the respondents—thousands of people responded to the survey—said they’re not going to shop at the big retailers this year; they’re gonna shop at smaller retailers, which would be great. If everybody stuck with that, it would be great. So let’s hope so.

Next thing is Alitalia Airlines. Alitalia Airlines did something very smug and stupid. So what they did—they were trying to negotiate a sale with Lufthansa, and every time I hear Lufthansa, I think of Goodfellas, which I watched the other night, you know, where they did the big heist in the movie. But Lufthansa was gonna buy Alitalia Airlines, but over 34% of the company was owned by the Italian government, and they kept trying to squeeze Lufthansa for more money. And guess what? They shut down. So they filed bankruptcy; they just announced that they have to lay off the final 2,056 employees. “Hey, we know there’s more there; we know they’ve got the money; let’s keep working it.” It would sound better in Italian, but that’s what they did when they tried to shake them down. And guess what? They got nothing. They’re getting lunch money now, so you’re gonna see an airline get liquidated.

But you can fly to Haiti and get shot at, so enjoy, okay? Alitalia Airlines, which, from everything I could see, was riddled with complaints lately about service and things like that, and that’s what bankruptcy will do to you. But Lufthansa just did a real number on them right now.

So again, people don’t want to hear, “Hey, we don’t have any more, can’t fix it.” And remember the bridge that got ran into? It’s just that erector set we had as kids, you know? You build it, and somebody would bump it, or Legos, and it would fall down—the Baltimore bridge that collapsed last year. The Singaporean company just agreed to pay 101 million dollars as a settlement to help pay for the bridge and their role in it. But the ship’s name was Dali—D-A-L-I—and it’s interesting because, man, talking about destroying things. You know, it’s weird—you hear about something like this is gonna destroy our economy locally, but then you get the election, and then you get sidetracked, and then you watch the Yankees get destroyed in the World Series, and just kind of, you know, look over here, you know what I mean? So how’s the bridge reconstruction going? They just got a hundred and one million dollars for that. So again, share your thoughts so far.

And look, somebody lost a ball; go get it, okay? I’ll meet you on the other side.

I’m gonna finish this video with these last few stories. First things first, and this is ridiculous—State of New York, think about this, guys. With all the problems the State of New York has, they’re going to outlaw plastic shampoo bottles. Is that ridiculous? Unbelievable. So, you know, one thing I love about traveling is how I go out, and I love getting and collecting the little shampoo bottles and conditioners and lotions and all that stuff. You come to my house, and I have hundreds of them right now. So, grab them; take them.

Final thing is Art Garfunkel. You know, Simon and Garfunkel. He steps forward and admitted that he’s been mad at Paul Simon for 20-plus years and how stupid it was. And it was stupid because Paul Simon had said something during an interview 20 years ago, and Art Garfunkel said, “I’ll never speak to him again.” Think of the millions of dollars that guy missed out on by not working with him, not performing, not going to Vegas, everything.

So one thing that you’re seeing right now is you’re seeing more and more people that are musicians—they’re selling their catalog. It started with David Bowie, and he did a 15-year deal and paid it off. Justin Bieber, last year, did a deal where he got 200 million dollars to sell his catalog. Two hundred million dollars—why? I mean, name a Justin Bieber song. You know, I can’t. The baby, baby, baby thing, whatever. But you can’t do this, and, you know, I mean, again, Simon and Garfunkel could have made an absolute fortune if they would have stuck with it.

So please don’t forget to hit the like button, please don’t forget to subscribe to the channel. If you want to get a hold of me, it’s hello@whatiallegedly.com. And I will see you very soon.

4o
[tr:trw].

 

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