Does the President REALLY Matter for the Stock Market?

➡ The article suggests that the identity of the U.S. President doesn’t significantly impact the stock market. Despite different political and economic policies, data shows that the market tends to increase by about 50% during the first three years and eight months of each presidency, regardless of who is in office. This challenges the common belief that the election results can drastically change the market’s performance. The article concludes that other factors, not the President, are the real drivers of the market.
➡ The article discusses how global money supply, not just the actions of the U.S. president, impacts the financial market. It explains that when more money is printed, it leads to an increase in the prices of goods and services, including the S&P 500 and home prices. The article also emphasizes the importance of securing Bitcoin using a hardware device. Lastly, it highlights that the global economy operates on a predictable four-year cycle, which coincides with the U.S. presidential term and the Bitcoin cycle.
➡ The S&P 500 and median US home prices are keeping up with the rate of liquidity, meaning they’re not losing value but also not gaining significantly. Different assets, like gold and Bitcoin, increase at different rates with changes in global liquidity and monetary inflation. For instance, for every 10% increase in money supply, gold goes up by about 14% and Bitcoin by 90%. Therefore, it’s important to focus on long-term strategies and choose assets with the best sensitivity ratios, often found in technology cycles, to get ahead financially.

Does it even matter who’s in the Oval Office, who the President is, at least when it comes to our investments? I mean, every four years, we hear the same story, right? This election is going to change everything for the stock market. We have like famous hedge fund investors right now saying if one opponent wins, they’re going to pull all their money out of the stock market, or they’re going to move out of the country. But what if I told you that might be one of the biggest myths in all of finance? In fact, data shows that the market performs different, but maybe the same, no matter who’s President.

It’s surprising, right? Well, that’s just the tip of the iceberg because under the hood is actually a roadmap that we can follow. It’s got a lot of nuance to it. So today, I’m going to show you the exact data so you can see the truth behind who and actually what’s really controlling the markets and why you’re probably worrying about the wrong things, at least when it comes to your investments. And of course, what we should all be doing to prepare. Now, real quick, if you’re new here, my name is Mark Moss.

I’ve been investing my own money into the markets for decades. I’ve been writing investment research newsletters for over nine years now. I’ve been helping thousands of investors, just like you navigate and profit in the markets. I’m a partner in a leading tech VC hedge fund. And the data that I’m going to show you comes from there, right? So stick around because what you’re about to learn can completely change the way that you invest for good. All right, let’s go. All right, so we’re going to jump right in and we’re going to talk about this election that’s happening.

We got Trump and Kamala running for the US president. The polls show it’s about neck and neck. And a lot of people are concerned on this election. They say that this is the most important election we’ve ever had. And I might actually agree on that. I know that that’s said about almost every election we’ve had. And that’s because each one becomes increasingly more important. There’s a lot of reasons why that is the case, the way that they use executive orders. There’s a whole lot of things, but this is not about politics.

This is about markets, this is about investing and how we’re going to make money. And so while there’s certainly major differences between Trump and Kamala, in some ways they couldn’t be more opposite. In a lot of ways, they’re maybe very similar. And certainly regarding who wins, we’re going to see massive differences when it comes to social programs, border security, lots of things, censorship, probably the most important topic of our lifetime. But in regards to money, in regards to the US budget, the deficit and money, and then of course the markets and our investments, is it really that different? Let’s kind of take a look.

Now, the popular belief is that of course, whoever wins has a massive impact. They elect the head of the Fed, they’re going to help direct, you know, the budget of that set tax policy. Kamala has some pretty aggressive tax policies compared to Trump as the opposite. And so a lot of people think that this influences the market. Like I said, I’ve seen billionaire hedge fund people are saying they’re going to pull the money out of the market. Like if Kamala wins, for example, other people say they’ll move out of the country if Trump wins.

And so we see it back and forth. However, I like to invest in the market as it is, not as I think it is, not as I think it should be, but as it is. You see, everybody works off of emotion and gut. This is what I feel. And you know, the society has emotionally charged everything. And so today we’re way more emotional than we ever have been. But as investors, that’s the worst thing that can happen. We want to know the data. So we’re going to do is we’re going to look at the data to go back in time.

So we’re going to completely change the way you look at this. And then we’re going to show you what this roadmap tells us on what to do. So let’s go ahead and just dig in. We’re going to go way, way, way back. I’m not super far back, but we’re gonna go back to 1993 Bill Clinton. So we’ve had Democrats, we’ve had Republicans, we’ve got them all. But what happened in the market? Now, for the market, we’re just gonna look at the S&P 500. Of course, there’s more to the market. There’s the NASDAQ.

Obviously, there’s commodities, real estate, but we’re gonna look at the S&P 500, which is the main index. And what we can see from the time Bill Clinton was elected right here, in the first three years and eight months, so from January one until September, that’s the timeframe we’re looking at. And what we can see is that while Bill Clinton was here for the first three years and eight months, the market, the S&P 500 went up by 50%, actually 55.9% about 50%, keep that number in mind, 55% with Bill Clinton. Well, Bill Clinton got another term, he didn’t run once, he ran again.

And what happened the next time? Well, from again, the same period, January one through September, we can see that the market went up almost 50%, in this case, 43%. So almost 50% again, as well. Now, yes, it went up and it went down. And yes, it went up even higher and it came down. But in that same time period, it ended up about 50% up. Pretty interesting. Okay, let’s just keep moving on. Let’s look at the data. Then we got Obama. Obama came in 2009, we can see here in January was elected right here.

And in the same time period, we see the market going up by 61%, a little over 50%, now 61%. The market’s up. Okay, well, that’s enough of Obama, we can look at again, Obama got two terms. So we’ll look at that. This is the first term you can see went up here 61%. The next term right here in the same time period, again, three years, eight months, went up again, 51%. So it’s almost seeming like every president in the first three years, a little over three years, the market goes up by about 50%.

Pretty interesting. Let’s keep going. What about Trump? Trump is going to destroy the democracy, he’s going to destroy the world, right? Well, or if you like Trump, then he’s going to save the world. However, what we can see here is on the same time period, January one for the first three years and eight months, the market is up 58%. So it’s almost looking like Clinton, Obama, Trump, it doesn’t really matter. It’s up. What about Biden? Biden’s been horrible for the economy, right? He’s been horrible for the economy. We’ve suffered from the highest inflation, the worst unemployment, all those things.

But what happened in the market? Well, for Biden, on the same time, January one, the same time period, not sure if we can do it, three years, eight months, we can see the market was up 53%. Obama, Clinton, Biden, Trump, three years, eight months, the market’s up about 50%. Pretty interesting, isn’t it? Let’s take a look at this. If we zoom out, I don’t know how we’ll be able to see this. If we zoom out, this is what it looks like. Each presidential election cycle, guess what the market just keep going up.

As Lynn Alden says, there’s no stopping that train. This is sort of overlapping all the periods together. You can see what this looks like. There is nothing stopping this train, regardless of who’s in. Okay. Well, that’s pretty interesting, Mark. Uh, I didn’t know that the data certainly contradicts what my gut and my emotions tell me, but now that we look at the data, then I guess the question is then if the president doesn’t change it and regardless of there, the markets go up, then what’s really driving the market? Well, that’s a good question to ask.

Is it the economic policies of these people? Well, obviously not. They have drastic policies, right? And we have heavy tax policies. We have light tax policies. Trump gave us all kinds of tax breaks. Biden repealed the tax breaks. There’s a study that shows that regardless of what the tax rate is, the government can tax 90%. The government can tax 10%. The percentage of taxes collected the revenue as a percent of GDP stays about the same. I believe it’s 18%. I didn’t pull the stat on this. So regardless, if they tax more or they tax less, the percentage of GDP stays about the same.

Why is that? Well, because when they tax more economic activity goes down, so they do get a larger piece, but of a smaller pie. When taxes go down, economic activity goes up. So now they get a smaller piece of a much bigger pie. So regardless of what the tax policy is, that’s why it stays about the same. So what’s really driving the market? If you watch my channel on a regular basis, then you’re familiar with this chart. And if you don’t, then go ahead and hit that subscribe button right now while you’re watching.

Okay. Now this is the S and P 500. Again, we’re using that as the market. Now, what I’m doing here is I’m looking at global liquidity, not US, not the Federal Reserve, not in the USM2. We’re looking at global equities. We have to understand that money moves around the world, right? When they print billions of dollars in China, a lot of that money comes to Canada and the US buying real estate farm land. You hear about that, right? US companies. So what we can see here is the black line is the S and P 500.

The gold line is the amount of liquidity. And what you can see is the S and P 500 is almost a perfect proxy for the increase in the money supply. It moves in almost perfect lock step. So as there’s more money, there’s more money chasing limited goods, supply and demand tells us that the price goes up. We can see it evidence. Here’s a little bit of another chart. This is USM2. But what this is, is in the blue line, what we have here is the fed balance sheet. And in the red line, we have the S and P 500.

And again, you can see this moving almost in lock step. Look at that. This came down, this came down, this starts going back up, this starts going back up. Pretty interesting, isn’t it? So then the question is, well, if it’s not the fed, I’m sorry, if it’s not the president, then it has to do with the fed printing money, but not just the fed, other central banks, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China, PBOC, the ECB, the European Central Bank, etc, seem to really be driving this. Now, I like to show this chart to all the doomers in disbelief.

This is the homes. This is the United States National Index, the median home price in the United States. The red line is the home prices. The blue line, again, is the money supply. And what we can see is they move in perfect lock step. You’re not getting rich by your home value going up. It’s keeping up with the ready to basement. Now this is 2008. And there was certainly a little bubble going on there. Now it’s snapped back below and you can see that home prices are nowhere near all time highs based in 2008, based off of where the money supply is.

I want to take a second just real quick to just give you a reminder. The reminder is take control of your Bitcoin. Look, for the first time in history, we have a way to preserve our property, take custody of our property and protect it with no cost. You can’t do that with gold, you can’t do it with your stocks. And so we can do it with Bitcoin and you should now don’t store it on an app on your phone that can get hacked. What you want to do is use a hardware device, something like this trezor right here.

So basically, your private key sits here, when you want to do a transaction, you plug it into your computer, sign the transaction, when you’re done, you unplug it and put it back into your safe. I’ve used treasure for now, I don’t know, six, seven years, because I think it’s the easiest one to use. I’ve tried, I think pretty much all of them. And it’s also open source. So you can trust the code. And again, it’s easy. Why easy? Because if it’s too complex, it makes me think of how many potential holes and risks there could be, not just in the device itself, but even in my own ability to secure it.

So I want something fast, I want something easy. And I want something safe. That’s why I use treasure. And if you don’t use treasure, use something, please get your Bitcoin off the exchange, use a hardware device to secure your private key. And if you like treasure, check out the link down below. Okay, so if that’s the case, then we want to look at the money supply. Obviously, right, not just who the president is, because we understand now it’s more than just the United States president. It’s about the money supply. And it’s about the global money supply.

We want to look at all the central banks of the world. Now, the interesting thing, I call this the monetary codex. If you haven’t seen my videos on the monetary codex, then you don’t really have a roadmap to follow this. We’ll try to link that down in the show notes down below so you can watch that. But this what happens is, is that because we’re in a debt based monetary system, that means money is created through debt issuance, the debt can never be repaid. It has to always continually grow. You hear about them kicking the can down the road.

It’s because in a debt based system, it has to be so the debt can’t be repaid. It can’t be destroyed. That would cause deflation. We can’t have that. Then we have to have more debt to roll over the existing debt. Now we’ve heard this in the last debt ceiling debate. President Biden said we have to increase the debt ceiling debate. We have to have more debt to pay off the old debt. Like, he literally said that out loud, like that’s a Ponzi. And you’re exactly right. Now, the interesting thing about this is that the whole world runs off of debt.

You probably have a lot of debt. I have a lot of debt. Businesses run off of debt. Corporations run on debt. The government’s run off of debt, etc. Now, if the bank called you up and said, Hey, we’ll refinance your mortgage to zero. Do you want to refinance? Of course, you’re going to take that. And that’s exactly what happened in 2008. And during the great financial crash, the entire globe moved into face to about zero. So I’m less than zero. And what do you think happened? Everybody refinished. And what it did is it put the entire world onto a cycle.

So now the world is rolling over debt in a very predictable cycle. You’ve probably seen this chart again, if you watch my videos. And we can see that in this chart right here, 75% of all the debt in the world has a duration of about one to five years. Now, on average, that’s about every four years or so. Every four years, the debt has to get rolled over in order to roll over the debt. They have to create more debt. And you’re starting to get the picture. Okay, so that creates these liquidity cycles.

Now, the interesting thing is that these cycles, these four year cycles also coincide with lots of other things. Now, this is the global liquidity cycle. Obviously, the red line is the hypothetical timeframe. The black line is actually the liquidity. And you can see how well this matches up. And you can see right now, the global equity is turning up right on par, right on pace to match this global liquidity cycle. Now, what’s interesting about this is that four year cycle just happens to have started in 2008. So take that forward, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024.

And that just so happens to overlap with the four year business cycle. This is what we see in the ISM. So you can see about every four years, this rolls over. And if you’re counting with me along, you might also know that this also overlaps with the four year presidential cycle, which is exactly what we’re in right now. It also just happens to overlap with the four year Bitcoin cycle. And so we’re seeing all of this thing happen over and over and over. Now, if we want to look at that in regards to global liquidity and understand the markets, we can look at it like this.

So we can see we got three good years and a down year. We got three good years and a down year. We got three good years and a down year. And we started October 22. If you go back on my channel in October 2022, I made a video said there is no market crash coming and here is why. And I made several videos going into early 2023 explaining this. So you can see from October 22 to present, we are on another upcycle. So regardless of who the president is, we are on these four year cycles.

And the presidency cycle just happens to coincide with that. And that’s why whoever the president is, is sort of irrelevant, because again, nothing stops this train, the liquidity train that is. Now, the question that we want to ask ourselves as investors who want to grow our portfolio is, what are the fastest boats we can go in? So, you know, liquidity rises all boats. But what a Warren Buffett say, but when the tide, the rising tide lifts all boats, but when the tide goes out, you see a swimming naked. Well, liquidity rises all boats.

The difference is that different boats go up at different rates. So the question is, which boat should we be getting into? Because I showed you the S&P 500 is only keeping up with the rate of liquidity. So it’s a perfect boat. It’s keeping you above water. Same with homes, the median US home price is keeping up with it. But that means that you’re not losing. That’s great. But it means that you’re also not getting ahead. Now, different rates have different cycles. So we want to ignore the elections. And instead, we want to focus on these cycles.

We want to have longer term strategies. So for example, we can see that different assets have different sensitivity ratios. So what we can see here is that global liquidity times monetary inflation hedges, gold and Bitcoin, for example, move at different rates. So in this perspective, we can see, and I’ve broken this down for you for every 10% increase in liquidity. Why do I say 10% since 2019? The US has increased its monetary base by 10% a year. Now the world is also in contributing to that. And it’s also getting faster, faster, faster.

It used to be 8%. Now it’s 10%. Most likely in the next few years, it’ll be 12%. But let’s stick with 10%. For every 10% increase in money, gold goes up at about 1.45%. So about gold will go up 14% for every 10% money supply. Bitcoin goes up at about 8.9%. So for a 10% increase in money, Bitcoin goes up by 90%. Now, Mark, but Bitcoin is the same price. Bitcoin’s the same price as it was six months ago. Okay. September of last year, September of 2023, 12 months ago, Bitcoin is, Bitcoin’s up 140%.

What about September 2022? Your cherry picking data, Mark? Well, September 22, two years ago, it’s up 240%. You’re starting to see the math. All right. So what we want to do is we want to find the faster votes. And we want to find the assets that have the best sensitivities. Now, which are those? Well, those are the assets that fall in this 50 year quantum wave cycle. Typically, technology cycles. If you want to know more about the quantum wave and the 50 year cycles and what assets are in those, then you might want to watch this video right here.

Otherwise, forget the election focused on your investments. The markets are up 50% in three years. All right. That’s what I got to your success. I’m out. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.