David Morgan: Silver Supply Gap Tariffs Gold to Silver Ratio Ask Me Anything | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ This Arcadia Economics presentation discusses the importance of financial security and the role of gold and silver in wealth preservation. It suggests that due to global debt levels and central bank policies, a shift from paper wealth to commodities is imminent. The speaker advises owning physical precious metals and investing in mining stocks for financial stability. He also highlights the potential risks in commercial real estate and the importance of safe storage for physical metals.

➡ As a paid member, you get a one-on-one session with me, advice on buying and selling in the metals and mining sector, and answers to two questions per month. If you’re not satisfied, you can leave risk-free. Regarding concerns about the dollar being replaced by digital currency, if you store your metals in a depository, they will likely be digitized. However, you can also keep some metals on hand for direct use. The implementation of a digital currency is uncertain, and it may not be as easily adopted as authorities think. In the near future, the price of residential real estate may drop, but if you find a house you love and can afford, you should buy it. The future price of gold is unpredictable, but I believe it could reach $5,000 in two years.

➡ Brokerage firms are insured up to $500,000, so if they collapse, accounts with this amount or less are safe. However, there’s uncertainty for accounts above this limit. The author also discusses a concept called the “Great Taking,” which he will elaborate on in the next issue of the Morgan Report. He also mentions the impact of Bitcoin on precious metals, suggesting that Bitcoin has diverted some investment from gold and silver. Lastly, he advises on investment distribution, recommending a focus on cash-rich companies.

➡ The text discusses investment strategies, focusing on spreading investments across different risk levels. It also talks about the challenges of moving precious metals across borders, suggesting careful research and small initial shipments. The author also discusses the possibility of gold and silver being classified as money, and the potential for capital controls. Lastly, the text mentions the struggles of a company called Viral Leech Barometle, which is working on recycling metals and environmental waste.

➡ The text discusses the potential for silver’s value to increase due to economic conditions and the global financial system. It mentions that a small percentage of the money in money markets could significantly impact the silver market. The text also discusses the value of silver in relation to other markets and suggests that it is currently undervalued. It ends by discussing the possibility of silver becoming a strategic metal for war efforts, which could further increase its value.

➡ The text discusses the value of silver over gold, advises on investing profits, and talks about exiting the silver market. It also touches on the potential impact of capital controls on foreign stocks and the possibility of the US accumulating silver. The author encourages spending profits on personal desires or supporting loved ones, and suggests commercial real estate as a potential investment. He also mentions the importance of strategic silver reserves for various purposes.

 

Transcript

We are eating up the above ground supply, I would say slowly but surely at a moderate rate right now. All right, welcome everyone. Here’s truly David Morgan here on April 1st. This will not be an April Fool’s joke, but maybe there’ll be something in this presentation we can make a joke about. So we’ll get started here. Yeah, take with a grain of salt or looking statements may not come true, you agree will not be held liable. So ask me anything. What’s coming for gold, silver in the global economy? Now, I’ve done a fair amount of slides here, a lot of prep, and I’m going to go through this pretty quickly.

I may not get through all seven or eight. I think it’s seven, depending on how many questions come in. I want to take a couple of minutes here, just kind of take the vision of what we do here on the, on the paid service, on the premium service. So our vision for ourselves and you are to become financially secure no matter what’s happening. It’s a desire to not only have stability, but it’s sovereignty, clarity and most importantly, freedom. They want you to be financially secure regardless of economic conditions and to feel consistently supported in your life financially without fear, fear, scarcity or stress about money.

And to build and sustain wealth reflects an internal alignment as well as an external, meaning that we will provide you the external things. But there are guidelines. Follow the guidelines. Most people are pretty happy people that kind of go outside the rails and decide that the certain speculative silver stock that I like is something to bet the farm on, which is not what we teach. We teach the opposite. Bet money you can afford to lose on those type of things. Sometimes they’re angry at me, sometimes they’re angry at themselves, sometimes they’re angry at both. Sometimes it works, but not always.

And then there’s the question of why, you know, why do you want to be financially secure regardless of economy? Why do you feel that kind of stability and confidence is necessary for you? Why, why do you show up here? You know, why did you take your time, your most valuable commodity to spend it with me and the presentation today? Do you have anxiety about money and do you want to relieve it? And do you want to live from a place of freedom and free expression where you’re truly your own person, your own being? You can more or less do your own thing.

So with that being said, let’s go ahead and move on in the presentation. I’m going to go through these fast. So the coming financial reset, how to position your wealth before it’s too Late global debt levels and central bank policies are obviously showing a monetary shift. We hear about CBDCs all the time from many people, from the WEF, itself, World Economic Forum, from Mark Carney, you name it, from the Fed chairman. So the role of gold, silver and commodities in wealth preservation is critical during the coming devaluation because we’re shifting from paper wealth, meaning stocks and bonds, into actual wealth is commodities.

And the highest tier of the commodity sector, of course, are gold and silver. Central bank’s digital currencies could change everything. What should you do now if you haven’t already? You should have some physical precious metals. So gold’s well over 3,000 now. 3,100. Will it correct or surge to 5,000? There will be some corrections along the way. No one can guarantee it’s going to 5,000. Many in my peer group think it’s going to 10,000 or even higher. I say, well, let’s get to 4,000 first. 5,000 is a number I’ve thrown out there a few times. I think it certainly can achieve that under conditions we now see.

But no one knows more than the market itself. What central bank gold buyers tell us about the future fiat currency is that they’re going away. I mean, we’re already in a digital system. Basically. Most people use Apple pay or their debit card or credit card or BMO or some type of digital payment system. President Trump announced that all government payments, Social Security on down are going to be done electronically with very few exceptions. And how much gold should investors own in today’s market? Obviously this is guidance. It’s not written in stone. It’s up to you to decide.

But many financial planners, if you go to one or you go online, they’ll tell you should have like three to six months worth of cash set aside. So if you lost your job, you could live for six months or want to change jobs and start a business. You have six months buffer, that type of thing. So whatever you need on a monthly basis, let’s say it’s $3,100 per month, then you would need six months worth of gold, which would be six ounces. So if you need, you know, 31,000, 31,000amonth and not using a lot more, but so that’s how you figure it out.

And I would of course say you should have both gold and silver, but you want to do gold only. You could use that formula. Silver is undervalued. Gold silver ratios around 90 right now, which is hard to believe, but it is what it is. It could be the trade of the decade. The reason being is that we are eating up the above ground supply I would say slowly but surely at a moderately rate right now. But what could change is industrial demand keeps increasing. We know the historic gold silver ratio on an average basis depending when you start the starting line you start from the 1300s, it’s probably in the 30 range or maybe less 25 you start over the last hundred years probably closer to 50.

I haven’t done the arithmetic but I think nearer term data is more important than data that’s older and older and older. So we want to look at the last 100 years or 50 years or 20 years and in this historical market the lowest it’s been so far is 33 to 1. So I think 30 to 1 is a possibility. Physical during mining stocks. Right now you’re far better off buying mining stocks but I want to be consistent. I’ve always advocated out the real metal first before you go and go into the equity side. But right now the value is truly in the equity side of the market.

Some are, you know, continue to struggle. These are ones under capitalized usually on the exploration side, ones that are well capitalized. You’re good producers, have big margins, are making money. Those are out of our three six I think in the top tier three are making new highs or have made new highs recently. There’s lots to look for and how to choose a gold and silver company. That’s in the book the Silver Manifesto. It’s available online, you get the PDF we don’t have the hard copy anymore. Which regions are best and worst opportunities in 2025 for silver it’s Mexico and South America and you can really type that online and find out which jurisdictions we stayed out of South Africa this whole time.

Last bull market in the 70s and up to 1-21-1980 really the South Africans were the place to be but not so this time around. Death of the US dollar what happens? We’ve got the BRICS exposure, the world shifting away from the petrodollar as we know and investors need to hedge just like the central banks. Next big crisis Black swan event. Commercial real estate is really in a mess but you don’t hear much about it. But many large or medium sized banks have huge losses on their books that they’re not marking them to market but they are underwater.

Some of these properties are being sold for pennies on the dollar and it isn’t, has not been resolved yet. Gold and silver of course, especially gold perform well in times of uncertainty and we are certainly There now where to store wealth safely. In this era, are banks still safe? Some are actually the money center banks which I’m not that favorable to, are probably the safest. As I’ve said many times. This is your first time listening to a lecture from me, then so be it. But most of you probably heard me many times and when you deposit your money in their bank you are an unsecured creditor which means once you give it to them at law, it’s their money.

If the bank fails, you will not get your money back immediately. You will become as an unsecured creditor a shareholder in that business and you will get stock in that business and that stock at some point could be sold. When that happened in Cyprus, people got 5 cents on the dollar. Best place to store physical metals and alternative assets. There’s ways to do it at home. You can google or do a search engine. Safe places to hide gold near my home. If you’re interested in storing in size or even a small amount, send a send an email to support themorganreport.com send an email to supportmorganreport.com and in the subject line put store storage and I’ll send you a personal email reply on who I use and how to get involved.

If you want, there’s no obligation. And then the last thing is my pitch to what you get as a paid member. First thing you’ll get is you’ll get a one on one session with me. It won’t be one of my team, it’ll be. I’ll tell you where we are positioned currently in the metals and mining sector. Some of our uraniums are still up, got a tech company we like, got the majors that are doing well, some mid, tier, some junior producers. It’s of course some speculations and I’ll tell you if you want to buy and sell and store or just buy and sell, probably the best place you’ve never heard of.

You have two questions per month and you’re guaranteed to get an answer from our team. Not always the answer you want but we will give you an answer. Usually it’s an answer you want and if you’re a member the consultation rate gets cut in half. It is a risk free so you can come in and pay and get the consultation and go about your married business and you would have a month or two to decide, well I really don’t want it, it’s not for me and we’ll part friends and you still got the consultation, you still got some guidance, still got probably a little More knowledge than when you started.

And that’s how it’s, how it’s done. So that’s pretty much it as far as the canned presentation is concerned. And I’m ready for some questions. Let me go to WhatsApp. So I got a long one on the first question. Let me see if I can put this over here and look at the camera at the same time. Question 1. I’m concerned about the dollar being replaced by either digital stable coin or CBDC. I started stacking mostly silver in an accredited depository. My question is if there’s a reset and replacement of the dollar, it seems that any redemptions in my metals will be made in the new digital currency, which I do not want.

Sovereignty is completely compromised. What do you say about redeeming after the digital currency rollout? By the way, this would also impact those who take possession of their metals because when redeemed for currency, I’m concerned this will be redeemed in the digital currency. Do you agree? Can you please comment on this dilemma? Excellent question and, and a thoughtful question. So I look at it two ways. One, I think you’re right. So if you’re gonna switch from, you know, Brinks depository into the new system, it will be digitized. So now you’re already in the system. You were out of it, now you’re back in.

The other thing is taking possession of it yourself, which I always recommend having some on hand. I mean, if you’re a big investor, you probably should store it somewhere secure. I wouldn’t store it in a bank, but as I said, if you wanna store, just send me an email. But if you put in your hands, then you have the option of using it directly. I mean, no one can, no one is going to stop using gold and silver. No matter what the CBDC or Digital stablecoin looks like, there will always be a free market. Now it will probably be called a black market.

It will probably be called a, you know, probably be unlawful. There is an expression you can agree with or not. I’m not saying I agree with it, although you probably could guess if I would agree with it or not. But just man disobeys unjust laws. If you’re not free to own your own property, then are you a slave? So it is something that I agree with that in most cases it would be digitized, especially if it’s in a facility, especially if it’s a, a Brinks or a Garda or one of the main depositories, if it’s on any of the comics depositories any of those places.

I think in private vaults you might have a chance to just go in and take it out on your own or have it shipped to you, but you’re going to be taking a chance. But this is what you are going to have to decide on your own. I really have a better answer than that. That’s the most truthful answer I can give, but it almost defeats the purpose. I mean, certainly if the metals do what I expect them to do in the next two or three years in terms of digital wealth, it will be higher, it will provide you more.

It will. But in that transition, the authority figures could say, well, we’re giving a windfall profits tax to all these silver stackers of, you know, 40%. I don’t know could happen. So it just remains to be determined. The other thing is, is the CBDC and or stable coin actually going to be implemented? And the answer to that we don’t know yet. Obviously we know what they want, but will it come about? And that is something that there could be an argument made that it won’t be as easily obtained or let’s say distributed or adopted. Is my word adopted, as they think? Forget the number.

I looked it up not long ago. My memory’s pretty good. I think it’s 1.6 billion people, might be 1.2. It’s, I think it’s over a billion out of 8 billion are unbanked. They don’t have a bank account, they don’t use a bank account. In fact, in some cases they don’t need a bank account nor even want a bank account. So to get everyone in the new system is going to be a bigger challenge than I think the authorities think it will be. Now they’re going to do their best effort to make sure that everybody gets the new system.

The other part is when will it take place? I mean, they’re going to push this thing hard and fast, but doesn’t mean it’s going to be next year. I mean, how soon is it going to happen? I don’t know. It could be further out than I think. I do think it’s, you know, it’s pretty much done in China. So that’s kind of the test case. And it works. Well, there’s very little resistance. Almost everyone in a city in China, which is probably about half the population of war, are totally on board with Tencent, WeChat, whatever they use for their payment system.

Put a couple of those up on my Twitter account recently. And that’s the model. That’s the model that the banking authorities want on a global basis. So kind of beat that one for death and look for another question. Okay, one just came in. In the near future, do you foresee the amount of golden ounces you would need to purchase an average home in the near future? In the near future, I think residential real estate in most areas will drop, I think maybe 20% on average. So, you know, don’t wait. Let me make a caveat. I’ve made many times, I’ve been asked over the years, several times, well, David, this house I really want to buy, it cost this amount.

I love it, but, you know, I want to keep stacking. And I’m wondering if we’ll get a real estate pullback and, you know, can you give me some guidance? And I always say the same thing. If you find a house that you want and you can afford it, buy it. I mean, you cannot put a price on something that’s priceless to you. Your family, your psyche, your well being, your idea of stability, the idea of owning something. So I would say depending on, you know, if you’re buying it for investment purposes or to live in, if you don’t mind, to live in and you could afford it, you know, you might wait a little bit because gold may go up 20% and the housing market goes down 20%.

That’s a 40%, you know, differential, which is not half, but that’s cutting the price down in gold terms quite a bit. So you might, you know, give it six months or something like that, see if I’m right or not. But truly, if you want to buy something that you want, and, you know, especially it’s a first home, but even it’s the second home. And that I think is the best, you know, information I can give you. Because really, when you own your own place, it’s. It’s priceless, especially something you love, really, and you fix up and make your home and all that.

So onto that next question. There are many predictions about the future price of gold. Some say 5,000, others say as high as 10,000. How do you think how I think it’ll go? And by when I actually answered already, maybe I did it too subtly. I’ve said 5,000 and I think two years. And depending on so many variables. I mean, black swans, the war problems, political problems, rolling out a new system, perhaps it could just shoot up and blow right through 5,000. On the other hand, if we get a deflationary environment, which we’re actually entering, where we’re producing less stuff, that means stuff costs more but there’s less of it.

It’s harder to get. And then tariffs put a higher price for everybody to buy it. And that’s going toward a inflationary depression and eventually a deflation. Almost all inflation is in deflation at some point. Want to think about that? How safe are brokerage firms in a huge downturn? What if they collapse? They’re not safe in a huge collapse in a downturn. First of all, not to get people too worried. So a brokerage account is under the SIPC, not the FDIC and they’re insured to 500,000. So if your account’s at 500,000 or less, you, you’re pretty much assured that you’re going to get your money, your stocks, the value of your account will be there if it’s under 500,000, if it’s above that.

We really don’t know for sure. If they fail the SIPC and, or Congress and, or the banks will make you whole, I’m pretty certain. So it’s not something to truly worry about. They will get bailed out one way or another. But the bigger question is really the Great Taking, which I’m going to be writing about in the next issue of the Morgan Report. Now, I’ve reestablished a connection with David Rogers Webb that wrote it. There’s a movie about it. There’s two movies about it, actually. You haven’t seen the second one. You should try to find it on, on the search engine and watch it.

And they have gotten some pushback on it in Tennessee and I think South Carolina. And I’m going to again be writing about it for the April edition, which comes out next Monday. And I will be interviewing David Rogers Webb as well, to kind of go through, you know, where we currently stand on that. That’s actually a bigger problem, the biggest problem, the way I see it, in the Great Taking, basically what I said about banks, where your deposit is their money at law in a brokerage account, your securities are. You have, I forget what it’s called, it’s not rights, but you have.

I forget the word. You have your right to your security. But the ownership in a default of the collapse of the system goes to the dtcc, this entity that holds all these stocks in electronic form. So something to be concerned about, but not overly concerned about it. Again, I’ll be addressing it and pursuing it. And you take someone as well known and as with as much cloud as Martin Armstrong and Martin says, it just won’t happen no matter what’s on the books. You know, Trump would Send in the army or something if that were was attempted.

I’m not sure I agree with Martin. I’m not going to disagree. I would say I don’t know and he really doesn’t know. But there is pushback on that whether or not it could really take place even though it’s on the books and the books are being changed on the state level. One thing I’ll say about sovereignty freedom, I have thought about this and I’ve written about it very slightly, but I really think that the state’s rights in the United States are going to come to the fore more and more and more kind of sought during the illness where some states said yes to mass, some said no.

Some say we’re going to implement this, some said we’re not. And you’re going to see more and more of that because if you read the Bill of Rights, the states really have superior right to the District. It’s been circumvented and I know why and it’s a long story and I’m not going to go into it, but the legal profession has circumvented the intent of the original Constitution by a lot. They put a fictional state on top of the land mass that’s a federal jurisdiction like WA is the federal identifier for Washington state. And as long as you adhere to nexus that they’ve created during the 30s, you’re actually a member of the District and not a member of where you were born.

If you were born in Washington state as an example, that’s as far as it’ll go. Getting a couple more questions. More questions folks. What are the tax implications of selling gold and silver? I just got this one from a member. I don’t give tax advice and I won’t do it here. I did send them a link and there is a in the membership site. And this is for free. You can find it for free. I just put some of the stuff on the member site just for convenience. But in the member site there is tax consequences.

I think it’s for both gold and silver. That’s a PDF file that you can download and use as guidance. But that’s about second you all have to do is type that what you asked me into a search engine. You’ll get a lot of. You’ll get a lot of links to look at. Hi David, what impact, if any, will the government’s announce of establishing a BTC reserve have on precious metals? That one is a subjective answer. I can’t give you a objective answer but if you’ve Gone to my blog and looked at any of the series that were 30 podcasts.

The first few were between John Perez and myself discussing what we deem the crypto conspiracy. We talked a great deal about bitcoin a couple of years ago. Those 30 podcasts are probably a couple years old, I think by now well over a year. I’m sure of that. So bitcoin is definitely and John’s premise, and I agree with it, is that a lot of money that would have gone into gold and silver moved into bitcoin. And at the time I did a study and wrote about in our premium service, I wanted to know how big an effect did it have.

And at that time the gold market was 10 times bigger than the bitcoin. So an order of magnitude. So did it have an effect? You bet. I mean if you’re looking at a trillion dollar bitcoin market at the time, trillion dollars into the retail gold market would definitely move the needle. So. But it can’t be measured. Exactly. But it does deter investment. That would have gone into the precious metals. Now silver, since it’s a much smaller market and we don’t know, you know, we know kind of the amount of silver bought versus amount of gold bought.

Let’s just say it’s half for talking purposes. No, if that half a trillion went the silver mine have a huge effect because silver is such a small market. But so it’s had an effect. How big we really can’t measure. But it’s had some. Now you asked a little bit different. He said what impact, if any, will the government announcement of having a bitcoin reserve have on the precious metals? I think metals look or markets look ahead. So it’s already anticipated that. So I think it’s already built into the market. Markets do move on news but usually they anticipate the moves.

So I think that’s already built into the cake. It might get a few latecomers to join the bitcoin fan club. I don’t know. Government start buying. It certainly can move the price higher. But I think most of the news is probably built into the price. Next question. What do you think about gold money as a way to store so some gold offshore. I have an account there. I don’t have much in it really. Since James Turk is no longer running it, he actually become a real estate company. If you look at their stock price, it’s not doing that well.

I don’t like their balance sheet because they basically moved away from the original intent. Exactly. Like bitcoin, bitcoin is supposed to be a peer to peer payment system outside of government control. Become anything but that. Gold mining was basically at one time you could swap gold money. You could pay for a newsletter or send it to a friend or whatever. Those days are pretty much gone. I would look for other places. It’s up to you. It’s always up to you. I don’t want to be a hypocrite. I still have some gold money, but it’s probably the lowest gold holding that I have.

Just not as convenient. I would look other places personally. Do you have advice on what percentage you suggest to have in precious metals, miners, cash and bonds? Yes. When you join the premium service, the first thing you’re urged to do is to watch a video and read the PDF called How to use the mortgage report. Again, these are guidelines. They’re not etched in stone. You must put this much in silver, you must put this much in gold, and then you must put this much in this particular top tier stock. But they’re guidelines and the guidance is good, well thought out and it does give you measurables.

For example, after you’ve built enough gold and silver to your satisfaction, where do you go in the top tier? Cash rich, mostly royalty companies that do not have the inflationary concerns that a mining company has. And that’s 70% of your portfolio. So I’m a big believer in blue chips and cash rich companies. You’re going to buy a goose that lays a golden egg. You want to buy a goose that lays a golden egg. You don’t want to go find a goose somewhere and hope that it’s going to lay a golden egg. That’s, that’s an exploration company now we do some of that, but we do it at the bottom.

So 70% goes in top tier, 20% or so goes into mid tier and maybe junior produces. And 10% at the most goes into highly speculative, high risk, high reward situations. And you spread it out. And if those stocks double and many times we put them on the list, they do. So as soon as it doubles, you want to sell half and get your money back. Put a 500 bet on a stock, you’ve got several shares because it’s only 10 cents a share, it goes to 20 cents, you sell it, you get your money back, you’ve got free shares called a free ride.

Many people teach this. And then if the stock goes to zero, you haven’t lost anything, stock goes up, you can make whatever the amount of money is. If it really runs, you might be upset, oh, I should have held the whole position. But believe me, in that genre, if you follow that advice, you’ll do very, very well. Viral Leech Barometle I took it off the list after years. Any hope? I just wrote Wayne yesterday. They’re still working. They’re. They’re debt free, which helps. So that means they can kind of go on indefinitely as long as management’s willing to work for next to nothing.

I actually put a suggested contact for him for Foreign Viral Metal. That’s a entity in Mexico that’s working heavily on the recycling side, environmental waste, e waste side and seemed pretty legit. So I sent that off yesterday. I still own some. I just can’t take it anymore. It’s one of the most trying, the most trying junior I ever got involved with. I mean it’s such a good thing to be able to relieve mines of cyanide and to recycle these metals and there’s so many positive benefits but it just never caught on. It’s such an old story and they’ve had so many struggles financially.

Just anyone that might be interested has heard the story and just doesn’t really want to pay attention. There’s always a possibility, but I took it off the list some time ago. What are the names of the movies based on Deja Rogers Webb’s writings? I’m not going to go on and type them in. If you just type in the great taking into search engine it’ll bring you to the website, I’m sure from the website the first movie’s on there. I know that. And the second one Maybe if it’s not, then I type in what is David Rogers Webb’s second documentary film called? Or where is it located? You probably find it with the search engine.

But there’s another question. Okay. I’m considering becoming an expat to escape the building Pandemonium in the usa. What advice can you give to get your metals out of the USA and into a safe location elsewhere? What are mistakes to avoid? Well, that’s a great question and it’s a tough one because it’s a lot harder to do than I thought. I’ve got a good friend that runs a major facility that’s in Argentina. Or he was. He’s back in the States now. Family. I said, hey, I want to send my medal to Argentina. He said, don’t, don’t, don’t bother.

It’s very difficult and I don’t want to call out Argentina. So let me just state it in a different way so I don’t get anybody pestering me. But there are jurisdictions that if you mail in metal, it might end up in customs and not in your hands. I’ll just say it that way. So you don’t know. In some jurisdictions, in some of those jurisdictions, it’s better to buy it there in a bank, for example, which some of the banks do actually have metal you can buy. But to move it in is extremely difficult. Now, if you’re going to do it or try it, I would immediately work with the customs.

I would just get on the website of whatever country it is and say, I’m an American. I have some personal property. I wouldn’t tell metals right away. I just have some personal property. I want to guarantee shipment. What are the procedures, what’s reportable, what isn’t? And that’s how I would do it. And if you got a green light all the way through and I was sending metal through and I was going to send 100,000 in metal, I would send 10,000 the first time to make darn sure it actually got there. I wouldn’t divide it into tens and send 10, 10, 10, 10.

But even if the 10 went through without a glitch, I’d probably break it up into threes and send 30, 40, and 10 or whatever. Just. It’s really difficult. I didn’t know this, by the way, until I learned it. So the other thing you could do is you could keep it in any jurisdiction and buy and sell it. Convert that USD into a currency of choice. There’s a facility that I use, Goldcore, if you’re interested in an Irish account. They still will take US Citizens. Send me an email supportemorantreport and type in offshore gold or something like that.

And I’ll hang. I’ll connect you with folks at Gold Core. You could just get on the Gold Core website. Want to use my name? Great. But yeah, you just don’t want to get to the airport with a bunch of metal and think you’re going to cross a border and have it without a glitch. Now you can between, like, Canada, the US And I’ve come back from Mexico with metal with no problem, come back from Europe with metal with no problem. But in all those instances, I think the most metal I ever carried in one trip was the kilo.

Coins from the Australian mint are beautiful. They’re about that big. They got three of them. So at the time, it might have been a thousand bucks. And the people at the TSA really don’t know what they’re looking at. I mean, they know it’s silver I just told him it’s artwork, which it is and just put down artwork. But anyway I over answered that. But be careful. I’ll just leave it at that. If you have more questions you can send me an email and I might think deeper about it. If gold spikes real high, government will devalue like Nixon did.

What do you think? I doubt it could. I won’t say you’re wrong. I’m not saying I’m right. You’re wrong. That’s not what I’m out, but I don’t think so. There’s too many people like yourself out there that know what’s really going on. And you know the Bitcoin reserve and all the governments trying to get out of their debt. I think it’s more likely that they would leave it and revalue at a high number and use it as back. You know of maybe an internal dollar where the gold or an external dollar for years and this hasn’t been discussed in a long time.

Many in financial independent newsletter writing, business or financial newsletters wrote about a two tiered dollar where to prevent all these dollars that are overseas rushing in the United States and causing hyperinflation. That they’d have a two tier dollar system where they’d have an interior dollar using the continental U.S. hawaiian or Alaska and an external dollar used everywhere outside the United States as kind of a currency control. That is a possibility. No one’s really talked about that in a long time. Do I think that will happen? It’s doubtful, but it’s a consideration. So. So okay, question 14.

Do you think there will come a time when gold and silver will be classified as money as opposed to collectibles? Absolutely. And in some states that’s the case. But of course as I said, there’s a federal overlay on top of all the states which makes federal jurisdiction by their legal finagling. So you could be in a situation where at the state level you can use it as money without any problem. Some states and then at the federal level you’re subject to whatever they deem at the time which right now it’s deemed a collectible. There may be a special, a special classification for US minted coins.

Mike Maloney talks about that. I tried to find it, I couldn’t find it. I’m not sure. I don’t want to mislead you but some people have stated that I haven’t seen it. Do you think capital controls will start at some point? I think there’s about a 10 to 20% chance that they will so there’s an 80 or 90% chance that they won’t. But I mean, it’s a fairly, it’s an, it’s a possibility, definitely. I mean just a tariff thing alone, you could make an argument that’s justified. I mean, you look at what the tariffs are for the United States, for US shipping goods out, you know, what kind of tariffs there are, and our automobiles going to Europe first, what we send to Canada or whatever.

But the old adage two wrongs don’t make a right. I mean, I, I don’t, I don’t feel it’s a good idea personally. But you know, as far as, is there justification for it, I’d say yeah, there probably is. But due to that, the more you start to use protectionist tactics, the more that trend will stay in place. And the more that trend stays in place, the greater the possibility of capital controls come into play. I’ll leave it at that. How I can silver go? That’s a good question. We have a document in the member section, the, the gentleman that wrote the Jerome Smith newsletter I met online.

He’s a great guy, great thinker, and he actually wrote 200 silver. It’s on our website. Not the free part. And he made that prediction a long, long time ago. My number is 100, but once we get above 50, depending on the economic conditions and what’s happening in the global financial slash monetary system, really hard to say. There’s over $5 trillion in money markets, basically ready cash. So 1% of that is 50 billion. 50 billion buys up the entire silver market for a year and a half. And if you don’t think under dire straits that 1% of the money that’s out there won’t move in the silver.

I’ve got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. I really think that that kind of money could not wood, but could pour into the metals, silver and gold. And with that kind of scared money, which is only 1% moving in the silver, that’s a lot of cash going. You know, that’s a fire hose shooting into a thimble. I mean, so I still think that there’s a number that could be very large. Thing we need to keep in mind is rather than a paper price, which I’m answering, we want to value it in terms of what will that ounce of gold buy, what will that ounce of silver buy? What is the ounce of silver buy relative to the oil market or the sugar market or the housing market or a business or the stock market, for example.

And when you get those metrics and they’re more in line with the historic standards or the historic averages. That’s when you’ll know if gold is fair priced or overpriced. And we’re way, way far away from those valuations. Right. Do you have a favorite royalty company? I’ve favored Silver Wheaton from the beginning. I like Franco Nevada. I had Royal Gold on there. I took it off because Franco’s similar. Royal’s actually done a little bit better. Those are three that you could play with. I mean those are the top tier. They’re the main players. They’re blue chips. You really can’t go wrong with any of those.

Are you familiar with Discovery silver? Yes. Which has had a big run. I don’t fall that closely to know, okay, a lot of these. Do they get a good drill result or fund comes in and buys a bunch and it drives the price up momentarily. But I can’t comment further than that. I love the concept but when I ask miners, they never respond as they never hurt of e waste toxic cyanide in our water permitting problems does not have any currency. Thanks for the answer. You’re a great guy. Yeah, it’s sad. It just is. I mean it’s too bad there isn’t someone with a bunch of cast in the mining business that just wants to buy out envirometal and take it, you know, get a real Bargain, you know, 10 cents on the dollar, whatever.

Shareholders at least would get something and maybe stock in the new company, build from there. Why do you think silver is not outperforming gold yet? Any idea what might be the trigger for this to occur? Yeah, my take is that silver was demonetized long ago. Most of people younger than me and I’m getting up there in age, never really think of silver as a monetary asset, although it is, but not to the degree that gold is. Gold is an establishment metal. The bankers buy gold, they own gold, they accumulate gold, they’re building their gold position. If silver had a monetary aspect to it and the central bankers wanted silver as a monetary base, the price would have to be close to the ratio.

It’d have to be like 10 to 1. 10 ounces of silver by an ounce of gold, not 90, they have to run nine fold from where it is now. So take nine, multiply 30, it’s $270 silver. If it was that price, it could be used as money. But at this price you couldn’t pay the wages of all wage earners in the United States for one day. At $30 silver, you’d run out. I mean, that’s how valuable it is or undervalued. So what catalyst? Well, obviously if there’s a default on the comex, there’s never technically a default because it can settle in cash.

But it failed to deliver to a big entity and word gets out. In other words, the entity says, okay, I’ll take the cash and keep their mouth shut instead of the silver that they want that were to occur, I think that would be one catalyst. Same thing with the lbma, either one of those entities. So failure to deliver coming in or out of the COMEX or the lbma. And there are other things, just retail buying can move it up and institutional buying is what really will drive it. When we saw 2020, when Guggenheim Investment probably bought a lot of silver through the ETF ETFs, we saw pretty good rise in the silver price.

That position went away. It was sold back in the market. I’ll move on. Next question. What do you see future of agriculture? I really like it. I think, you know, food is going to be harder and harder to get because of disruptions in supply chains, the war situation even. I’m not a big climate change proponent, but climate does change all the time. And it seems like whether you believe there’s a Maunder Minimum coming up or not, there is changes taking place. I mean, the magnetosphere, for example, has changed greatly. And there’s a potential pole shift. I’m not sure.

I think that it has happened. I don’t think it’s imminent, but the magnetic pole is creeping at a faster and faster rate. You’re not aware of that, so I’m big on it. I mean, I was asked this a long time ago by one of our members and I suggested they buy adm. Philosophically, I’m not real fond of the company, but as a hedge against food prices, it was a great one. And many of our members bought that and they did quite well because it’s not gone, you know, it’s not a Bitcoin. It’s a company that’s in the food industry in a big way.

And it definitely has kept up with the actual inflation rate, which is, as you know, far, far higher than what the government has told us it is. So I’m getting near the end. I guaranteed I do 45 minutes. Could go as long as an hour and I’ll keep going. We got about 10 more minutes and then I’m going to close down. Risk of gold and silver confiscation going forward, similar to what FDR did in the 1930s, it’s possible. I really doubt it. I’ve not changed my position from when I got on the Internet in 98. The chances are just really, really against confiscation.

I mean, first of all, if it wasn’t really confiscated, that’s rule number one. People that had gold and turned it in were compensated for it at the going rate and then the rate was changed thereafter, as we all know. But they didn’t come and take gold away from me without compensation. So confiscation is used. I’ve used that word many times. But truly it was nationalized, not confiscated. So the similar thing would happen here. They wouldn’t come in and take a gold at gunpoint. Give me your gold. They would compensate you in digital currency or Federal Reserve and other.

But I don’t think it’ll happen if it were to occur. A lot of people that had gold did not turn it in the 30s. They just kept it, kept their mouth shut. And really the story is many of those people took their gold coins and stuck them in a coffee can with the lid on it and buried it in the backyard. And to go a step further, where the woman of the household could see where it was, not that it’d be on top of ground, but planted by a tree or whatever, keep an eye on it, so to speak, if they were to confiscate or nationalize it, I think it would be the ETFs where it’s easy to get to and they might just leave the people alone.

That would be more likely than, you know, asking people to turn it in. Although again, that’s possible. Silver. Silver is a situation where we are eating above ground supply the last four years. That will, as far as I could tell, that will continue at 200 to 300 million ounces a year for the next several years. Could get to the point where silver becomes a strategic metal for the war effort. And in that case it might not be nationalized. It might be requested for silver bulls to sell their silver at perhaps a premium where, hey, look, if you give us your silver for, you know, 10% above spot and you don’t have to pay any taxes on it.

We need it to build out the new missile system. You have 30 days to take advantage of this tax free, once in a lifetime opportunity. Would they do that? I don’t know, but certainly I wouldn’t rule it out. There is silver is much more valuable than gold as far as use cases are concerned. Gold’s use is good for jewelry and money. Really? Yeah. They use gold on the astronauts helmets and a few places in the industry. But it’s not nearly as useful as silver. Of course we all know former subscriber. I’ve been holding my wealth since 1986.

I’m 68. Would now be a good time to take some profit? Yeah, it would. If so, how much profit? Where would you put the profit this time? Well, I cannot give individual advice, so let me just say it in, in a general way. First of all, what do you want? You know, I mean, if you’ve got everything you need and everything you want, then where are you going to put it? I wouldn’t put in the stock market, I wouldn’t put in the bond market. You know, you’re, you’re probably retired or close to it or semi retired.

So I wouldn’t suggest a business. But if you have kids and they want to start a business, well, capitalize them or, or pop, you know, partly capitalize them. You know, if you want to travel the world. Never done it. Do that. I mean, you know, you earned it, you know, use it the way you see fit is my general guidance. I mean, you know, to sit on a pile of gold or silver or Fiat or whatever, you know, it’s maybe nice to look at a number but you know, what’s it really doing for you? What do you want to do with it? You know, if you got everything going and you know, pretty darn well off, you know, you can start a foundation, you can say look, I want to start education on sound money principles and why money is important but not the most important thing in the human experience.

And here’s why. If you want to send some of a donation to my documentary, I’ll accept it, although I’m not asking for it. But as far as what’s the best place to put it at this time, there’s really nothing undervalued in the book. I don’t see real estate as undervalued other than commercial real estate. Now if there were some warehouses or something like that in your area that were, you know, half price or something, I would take a look at that. But outside of commercial real estate, I don’t can’t think of anything really undervalued. So you know, and I would say I wouldn’t want to put a lot of cash in the bank right now with the banking problems we see.

So certainly take some profit. You know, I’d say just spend it, you know, spend on something that you want. Get that new truck you always wanted or, or gift somebody that you love or or that type of thing. I heard you say when you exit silver, we’ll do it in tranches. Could you please clarify amounts you would sell as silver rises significantly in price? I can’t do it ahead of time. I’d have to do it as it takes place to do my best for subscribers. But there is a, I think there’s a place where gold’s going to stall out and I might sell as much as 50% and if I’m wrong, I’m only half wrong and you’ve got the rest to ride up.

If I’m right, you’re half right. And as it starts coming down further, you put a stop loss in and sell at a lower price. Wow, David called the top. Again, not saying I can. I’ve been lucky or skillful or a little of both so far, but that certainly doesn’t guarantee the next time. There’s a lot of that outlined in our book Second Chance by David Smith and myself. There’s about three or four different cases made on how to exit and some strategies if you exit too early, how to get back in with minimum risk. It’s called the sacrifice fly and definitely for whatever 20 bucks or whatever that book sells for, I would buy it.

If you’re interested in getting more in depth of how to exit the tranches. How do capital controls affect foreign stocks? Well, it depends on what they do with the capital controls. If they say all US money stays in the US and you can’t buy foreign companies, well that just means your foreign stocks can’t be bought anymore. The ones that you own you probably could keep. But it could go as far as saying you gotta, you know, sell your foreign stocks. I don’t know they get that nasty or not. I mean what governments can do these days, who could say? But no, it could be where, you know, there is no ability as an American to buy foreign companies because capital controls are implemented in such a way that says no foreign purchases, no foreign not only stocks, but perhaps bonds.

You can only buy US Treasuries, you cannot buy bonds or any of the other foreign jurisdictions that have a bond market. Again, I gave it about a 10% 20 at the most. But again you can’t rule that out. So I’ve got about three more minutes. Thanks for bringing the questions have all been really good. Hopefully I’ve been a value to you all. It’s my intent. So this will be the last question. Other countries have started accumulating silver, addition of gold. Do you think the US will follow suit and if so, what would the impact be? Well, the impact would be depending on how much that they buy and us used to have.

Even though Jeff Christian disagrees with me, it used to be called the Strategic Silver Reserve. Pretty sure I could prove that on the web. But I’m. I don’t want to be petty, but Russia has done it. It’s the only one to my knowledge that has done it and announced it. I think the US should start now, I really do. Not for monetary purposes, but for strategic purposes, for military purposes, for solar purposes, for water purification purposes, for medical purposes, for a lot of really important purposes. We should have that metal. And again, the impact would be if they buy a little.

It wouldn’t really have much impact. They bought a lot. Yeah, of course it would move the market. So I’m going to go ahead and sign out a lot of free information on here. Consultations are there, member options are there. We have three different memberships and then the blog is here and this is all for free and I do a lot and then the quick icons here go to our YouTube channel, Twitter feed. I usually post on Twitter like every day if you want to know what I’m saying. You want to go, want to click the icon there.

And this came from my friend Bob talked about massive decline in open interest in the front month gold futures kind of decline of 87,000, almost 88,000 contracts. Some of this could be roll however looking or physical deliveries out of the registered category near term. And I wrote a comment on that state in yesterday’s alert to premium members. I said look for a roll out in future months. The number of times the community has gotten excited about delivery and making a difference is huge. But the times it has happened are next to that. So almost always when you get these big open interest right next to delivery, the delivery deadline, those these paper contracts roll into more paper not in the physical standard.

I’ll leave it at that. I appreciate all of you free members are paid either way. Still have a passion for what I do, doing my best to teach and empower people to understand the benefits of an honest financial system. And this is David Morgan signing up SA.
[tr:tra].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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