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And you see in these grade areas at the top, that’s the deficit. According to this graph, it started in 2021 and 2022-23, and it’s forecasted in 2024. And these are running roughly 200 million ounces. And, of course, this means that the above-ground stockpile of silver will be put to use by feeding demand. Whether it’s investment demand, solar demand, or industrial demand, it’s demand. And it will take up some of the silver supply. What some people do not know is that this has already occurred in the past. What I find interesting, and most of you that follow my work know, that I’ve studied the silver market for a long time.
So if you look at this graph here, what you see is the deficit that occurred for 15 straight years, basically between 1990 and 2005. And we started 1990 with roughly 2 billion ounces of LBMA or COMEX grade silver. So commercial bars, 2 billion ounces, round number, no one knows the exact amount. During this 15-year timeframe, on average, we used 100 million ounces per year. Obviously, it ebbed and flowed. It was in the bulk of like, it looks like about, oh, what, 1993 or 2004 through about 2002 was the bulk of the usage. Regardless, 1.5 billion ounces was eaten from the above-ground stockpile leaving roughly 500 million ounces in the COMEX, the LBMA, and outside of that in, again, commercial bars.
From 2006 onward, you can see that we built inventory. So the above-ground inventory of silver decreased from 2 billion to half a billion and back up to 2 billion fairly quickly. Now, in the last few years, we have had a deficit again. What I want to point out is the supply and demand curve, which I’m showing you supply and demand, but the red line is the price. So after eating up roughly 3 quarters of the silver supply by 2005, look at the price. It was just starting to move up, and it was roughly $10 an ounce, which to me doesn’t make a lot of sense.
If I saw all this happening, I would think you would get a higher price than what we saw. And then as the inventory started to build over a few years, the peak happened last day of April, early or 1st of May, 2011 at roughly, and the show’s 35. That’s really not true. It was around 48 when it peaked. And then it came down, and I think all of you know it’s done what it’s done, and it’s starting to show strength again. So after question, does supply and demand really work in the silver market? I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
What I think is interesting this time is that there are a lot more people aware of the silver market, aware of the surplus and deficit situation. And industry is far stronger now than it was in 1990. If you go back to that date, silver was about 35% used for industrial purposes. Today, it’s 60%. Back in 1990, the amount of mining was about 550 million ounces. Today, it’s about 850 million ounces. So you can do the math on that, but there’s a huge increase in industrial demand over the last couple of decades or so. And this is a pure fact, and this is something to consider that those industrial demands are not going away.
Well, recession curtailed some of them, possibly, but not to the degree it’s not that price elastic. In other words, the price of silver goes up or down. Industry basically uses the same amount. Does it vary? Of course it does, but the trend is very clear. Industrial demand keeps increasing year over year. So let me come back to the landing page, and you have these icons up here for quick navigation. Of course, members log in here. So I want to go to the YouTube channel very quickly. And what you see here is basically these weekly perspectives or interviews that I do.
So my content, this one was, I had a nice note on this one from a member or maybe just a free subscriber, and he thought this interview was one of the best regarding what holds in the future for the financial system. He really liked it. I’m not going to dig it out and read it to you. Most of these are just weekly perspectives. I try to keep them around 10 minutes. This one was Stefan Gleason was really, for those that want to know what the states are doing, and a hard Stefan is working on getting taxes reduced.
Basically getting silver and go back in the money system. You know, into the system is money. And he’s done a great deal. Work kind of flies under the radar. Not a lot of people know about it, but that’s one. Another one that was very interesting. It might have been overlooked. We’ve got 1,700 views. Was this one on gold alchemy? This gentleman and I interviewed him. Talks about basically how to extract gold. It’s a very interesting podcast if you have the time. And of course, there are others in here. Again, most of these, you can tell from these thumbnails if it’s, you know, an interview, or just a update as I’m doing now.
So coming back to the landing page, that was our YouTube channel. But if you want to see all of the things, you should be on our mailing list. But if you don’t want to be on the mailing list, if you come to the vlog, then you’ll see a lot more than just the weekly updates. Like there’s the weekly update from last week. And I did two interviews. I’ve actually done about four, but two have been posted. And these, of course, are really links to whomever I have been interviewed by because it’s their content, but we’re making it available to you on our blog site so you don’t have to hunt all over the place for it.
So there’s a difference between the blog, which I’m showing you now, and the YouTube channel, which I just showed you a moment ago. So you might want to keep that in mind. So finally, I want to come back to the landing page. And from the landing page, let’s just go to the Twitter feed. There’s a couple things I posted this week that you might want to take a look at. One is the Japanese yen carry trade is a mess, and it’s not over. Manneco 64 posted this, and I reposted it. It shows you what happened today.
A lot of metal, physical metal, moving around. The PSLV added almost a million ounces of silver. Of course, what’s going on in the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Futures Exchange. Very interesting. Thank you to the Oriental Ghost for posting this stuff for us. And then Bob showed effective September 27th today that margin on COMEX Gold and Silver are being hiked. I made a joke about this, but it’s not a joke. I say, yeah, baby, this one before, keep raising until markets cool off. Very few know. But the first major run-up in Palladium, the margins for a Palladium contract was two times the physical cost of the market, believe it or not.
So contract in Palladium is 100 ounces. In platinum, it’s 50 ounces, and it was roughly $1,000. So it was $100,000 to buy it outright and $200,000 to have one contract. That’s what these people will do if they get in trouble. And then once that sort of smoothed out, the exchange decided who was going to get the physical Palladium. Very interesting. And I’ll go ahead and wrap up with this one. This came to me on a Telegram channel. We no longer accept US cash. This is from a Walmart. I haven’t verified it, so maybe it’s an AI.
I doubt it. That came from a very reliable source, I know, personally. So I went ahead and posted it. So I’ll wrap it up. This is David Morgan of MorganReport.com with a weekly perspective, and I’ll be back with you next week. And one quick side note is the premium members letter will be coming out in one week and one day. Next weekend, we’ll be posting. The reports come out on the first Monday of every month, which this month, it means not the first of the month. It’ll be later than that. It’ll be a week from Monday.
[tr:trw].See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.
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