The gold market is changing as gold is becoming less available for lease, causing a shift in the industry. This is due to increased demand from countries like China and the US, who are buying up gold before it hits the market. This shift is causing a strain on the bullion industry, which has relied on a steady supply of leasable gold. As a result, central banks may have to lease gold to bullion banks if they can’t get it fast enough.

The article discusses the need for cheaper energy and better bank regulation to boost American businesses and counter inflation. It criticizes the Federal Reserve for focusing on social issues instead of economic ones. The author also predicts that gold and silver prices will rise, and their movements will be influenced by Trump’s decisions on tariffs. The article ends with a reminder that the information provided should not be used as financial advice.

London doesn’t have the gold. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news. Get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy. We have a very, very special edition of the Market Rundown. The morning Market Rundown. The title tentatively is breaking. It is breaking. The LBMA doesn’t have the gold or silver. We will be discussing today. The LBMA doesn’t have the gold or silver. From a factual perspective as reported by several mainstream media outlets and elaborated on here.

We will also have in premium continuing that discussion as well as continuing that discussion, we will have more breaking news, at least for the public. And that is bnp, a European bank is now buying gold for themselves, for their prop desk and for their clients. It is a speculative position, but it is very revealing of what is going on. We will also caution people who are getting euphoric like ourselves that in the end they will find the gold. The question is at what price? So let’s start. Oh, I do have a couple. I do have one more note.

There has been a lot swirling around both the mainstream media and our own precious metal community niche. This post will catch you up on the facts and developments. If you stay with us for Premium, you will get valuable factual info that few people know and insights that even less can convey. We speak specifically about why this is happening and what is likely to come of it in a big as well as a microeconomic picture point of view. Spec in the. In the interest of transparency, speculatively speaking, we are long silver and bonds. Now. This is in addition to our core holdings and economic beliefs.

That is our bias going into this. So we are reporting news, giving insight. Hopefully it’s good and we’re part of the game that you’re all in, hopefully. Okay, let’s start with the markets. 10 year yields are down 4 at 449. The dollar is 107.95 up 1, 2. The SB 500 is 60.55, up 8, almost 9. The VIX is 1596 down 59. Gold is 27.81, up 22. Silver is 31.19, up 37. Tom, they’re going back and forth as to who’s leading this morning. Copper is 4, 27, 428, up 30 basis points, up 36 basis points. WTI is 7319, down 59.

Natural gas is 350, unchanged. Offered Bitcoin up 1500 at 105 and change. Larry Fink is a government approved bunker hunt. Moving on. Palladium is 987, up 26 and change. Platinum is 959, up 12 and change. Gold, silver cracking below 89. Finally below 90 I should say. Grains are down, down, up. Soy, corn, wheat. 1048, 488, 572. Soy is leading lower and wheat is holding up the Ford higher. All right, starting with the homepage this morning we posted two stories. One is our analysis dry of the Reuters report on the LBMA scramble for gold. The headline there is news.

Reuters reports LBMA scramble for gold is real. And we go through that. That is a free post. Lower left hand corner. The FT reports gold shipments to US strained London’s bullying market. That is also an unlocked post. That’s news and it’s factual. Top left hand corner. Closing gaps. Nvidia and NASDAQ are part of the problem for stocks. Okay, let’s start with a discussion. London doesn’t have the gold. All right, the first story is that’s a chart of the gold inventories in New York and how they have severely upticked. First of all, before I get go further into this, there are people out there, you know, I’m pretty proud to be part of this community and get an opportunity to work with some smart guys and well, I’m also proud of how it’s come together.

I think that the work that we’ve done here has helped that so much and banning the bullshit and talking about the facts, whether it’s good or bad, people like Bob Coleman, Eric Young by Baojun, and Chris Marcus, we feel very strongly about those people as being advocates for the community, not just the metal. And Josh Fair, who has inserted himself at a good time into the little Twitter world that we have from Scottsdale and there are many others that I haven’t mentioned here yet. But they all contribute in important ways. Okay, so London doesn’t have the gold.

The LBMA scramble for gold is real. This is a comment from that post. London’s bullion market is under pressure as traders rush to borrow gold from central banks following a surge in shipments to the U.S. two sources told Reuters this. The bank of England, a key storage hub for central bank gold, now has a four week wait time for releases far longer than the usual few days. I’m going to make a little note here talking about this in Premium Tom, in case you’re wondering what I’m writing here. Same thing that happened in Shanghai, but for worse reasons.

The bank of England declined to comment. Next story. The FT reports that gold shipments to us strain London’s bullion market. The wait time to withdraw gold from the bank of England has stretched from a few days to four to eight weeks as demand overwhelms the central bank’s capacity. Gold quote. People can’t get their hands on gold because so much has been shipped to New York and the rest is stuck in the queue, said one industry executive. Right, again, it’s a crowded boat over there. Next, before I discuss BNP, just very quickly, for the last 30 years, the bullion banks have been relying on a very strong, very solid supply chain.

And that supply chain, for argument’s sake, is to simplify it. Metal comes out of a mine in, let’s say, Africa, it gets sent to Switzerland, it gets refined, it goes to London and there it is, there it sits. Now, when you have a supply chain that’s been that robust for that long, you tend to run your business in a more just in time sort of way, which means you, everyone would, you would tend to neglect risks associated with timing because you click it. It’s there, right? It happens. And the, the reason that you can get away with being sloppy in that respect.

And this is about metals, this is not about oil or any other commodities. Gold and silver are not destroyed. Mostly gold is always gettable. Okay, so if there is a kink in your supply chain, let’s say there’s a strike in South Africa, let’s say the miners are, I’m sorry, the smelters or refiners, you can always find someone else’s gold to borrow. You give them 50 basis points, the price of gold doesn’t move. You don’t have to buy it. You borrow, you make delivery of the borrowed gold and then you replace it when the kink in the supply chain comes out.

And that’s not a bad way to run your business. Above ground, gold is not consumed, it’s there. You just have to find it. And London was the hub of the physical gold. They know where all the gold is. And if you’re a bullion bank and you don’t know, well, the BIS certainly can find it for you. And so can the imf. And for decades, the metal had been assumed to be available. Now a new buyer shows up, right? A new player shows up on the field. A new player who does not subscribe to the neo Keynesian concept that gold isn’t money.

Gold is just a pet rock that sits in a vault that I’d be happy to lease out for 50 basis points. Right. I’m a rich guy with a lot of gold. I believe in it, but I also know it’s really not going anywhere. And so I’ll lease it out for a little bit of a dividend, kind of like a covered call concept. But this new, this new player says, no, gold is money. And you know what? I don’t trust the usa. I want the gold. And as a result of that, little by little, over a year, starting as early as 2009, China and its satellite countries has.

Russia is not a satellite country, but you get the point. They’ve all been saying gold is money. Bonds are not U.S. bonds. We want gold, we don’t want bonds. Little by little, little by little. And for a long time, the bullion banks, it’s still business as usual, but the floor keeps getting raised. And so in a sense, the gold and silver is, it’s a game of musical chairs. And the physical goal, there’s a million shares. And as the chairs are getting taken away, they’re going out and going, can I borrow your chair? Can I borrow your chair? And they take a seat, right, so.

But now the borrowed chairs are hard to find. You can’t get them anymore because they’re being bought. And the buyers of the gold, the new buyers, yes, they’re not using the gold. They’re not making golden rocket ships. But this is why I say they want the gold. They need the gold as their own collateral for future trades, whether it be with the bricks or whether it be with the G7 down the road. The result of that is it’s not available for lease. And if it’s not available for lease, all those people playing the musical chair game, oh, I’ll just bought, oh, that chair is not available for me to borrow anymore.

And so one by one, they’re starting to cannibalize each other for the gold. The golden shares, it goes up the ladder. The biscuit, you know, they’ve always been a provider of gold for the bullion bags. But in the end, the BIS cares about the gold, you know, cares about the money. And if they have a bigger client in China who’s buying than a client in, in London who’s selling, well, in the end, they’re going to go where the money is. That’s what the BIS is about. I mean, they dealt with Nazi gold during World War II.

Enter the Central banks. Who else has been buying gold? Central banks have been not just eastern central banks, but western central banks a bit as well. Eastern Europe would be an easy example to see that Poland Lithuania, everyone. So now the delivery into the US Is pulling on the bullion stores in London. There’s a billion ounces available. It says, no, no, no, there’s a billion ounces there, but there’s only 300 million ounces of available. The other 700 million ounces are owned by people who have no interest in leasing it because they see what’s happening. Fast forward a little bit.

Now you have China, right? You have a big straw sucking the gold and silver out of Europe, right? It comes out of London, it goes into Switzerland, it gets earmarked, and it goes to China. Right? Now you have a new straw coming to the US for whatever reason you want it to be for tariffs. I believe it’s just a straight up repatriation of gold. And the tariffs are a reason, if not a good cover that we can get into that some other time, but that’s the law. So they have two straws. You know, the golden milkshake in London is just being drained.

I get into more of this, but I wanted to make that clear, that when you put all what I just said together, you have an industry that has relied on robust supply chains due to leasable gold forever, and that gold’s no longer leasable, or at least some of it is. This will end with the central banks, the G7 central banks, leasing the gold to the bullion banks if they can’t get it fast enough. It’ll end with mining gold being pulled out at the source before it hits prices in the market. It’ll end with the whole world doing what China’s doing, and that’s buying gold before it hits an exchange.

And that’s a function of mercantilism. It is. You’re not really interested in global trade. You’re interested in getting your metal anyway. So that’s the picture. So what you have is you have a bullion industry that’s been in control at the bullion bank financial level for decades. And they’ve been right because the metal’s been available. But little by little, they’ve been losing their ability to get that metal so quickly. And now you have a new buyer. Right? The US Wants the gold. It wants its own gold. It may be its gold over there. They’re pulling it back because they need it, I believe for tier one capital purposes going forward.

Right. But the story that we’re getting now is because of tariffs, and it’s legitimate because of tariffs. The gold I have here in my possession is no longer. Is potentially no longer deliverable silver as well. Silver is A bigger problem. But gold’s easier to explain. Is no longer available, no longer deliverable because it has a Mexico stamp on it. Well, I either cover my contract, right? I try and get some gold from London brought over in a swap and the EFP starts to change. And the EFP reflects that. Okay, so whatever the reasons, we all want to know why.

Whatever the reasons. Tariffs. Repatriation. Repatriation. I’m right about that. I’m just. It just has to happen that way. Basel iii. Eric had reminded me of that in a very pointed way. China, the gold prices have to go up because there’s just not enough of it floating around to satisfy the demand. That’s it. Silver as well. Okay, so moving on to the BNP portion of the program. All right. BNP uncertainty has been the key driver. BNP put a new report out and they literally told us that they bought the gold speculatively, but they bought the gold. Uncertainty has been the key driver for gold over the last year, driving the yellow metal to consecutive record highs in US dollar terms through Q4 2024.

As we noted in their report, Gold elevated Uncertainty revamping model ramping up. Forecast dated 10-22-24. This environment has prompted increased instability in gold correlations with other asset classes, a signal we see as positive for gold’s role as a risk uncertainty hedge, in turn driving a yield and speculative net gold length in NYMEX gold futures. Okay, that is a very well worded paragraph of what we’ve been saying for the last two years. And they bought gold. Now those are the reasons they’re telling you they bought the gold. They don’t mention the LBMA at all, but that’s the reason they’re buying it.

My opinion. So they have some key charts in there. Those key charts depict. Tom, let’s see, we got speculative net long gold position on IMAX has surged since the start of January. That’s important because after January I would have said to you it’s over. The new year by season is over. No one’s going to buy for a couple months. Well, that’s a wrong statement. Central bank gold accumulation began to pick up in September, driven in part by the resumption of PBOC buying. Yeah, that’s right. The, the golden FX spiral. That’s something that I discuss with people from time to time and that’s.

Well, that’s tied to their chart. Their chart says gold is trading at all time highs in major currencies other than the US dollar. We expect US dollar gold to push to new record high in Q1. Spiral refers to the fact that the demand starts in China and it just spirals out. All the emerging markets get it and then it stops in the US and we’ll talk about that. More premium next. PBoC buying as well as renewed consumer buying interest as well as renewed consumer buying interest. That’s you know, we all know PBO. We know PBoC is buying, maybe their clients don’t, but the consumer buying interest, that’s important and that’s because China has liberalized ownership.

Oh you can buy it through an app and you could take delivery to some guy in an Amazon. Whatever the Chinese Amazon version is, we’ll be delivering it to your door in a week. Less time than it takes to get your metal out of London. All right, so 250 to 250 tons prompted a recovery in Chinese gold imports. I have a typo there but the number is probably what I have wrong. Gold and US dollar correlation normally inverse negative but has become increasingly unstable in the run up and post US elections. That’s key. We’ve been talking about the correlations being broken or resetting for almost two years now but again post the US election.

That’s right. I mean I’ve been talking about that and charting it but I’d say you know what, it’s after the election the correlation should have snapped back some and it has. When, when gold rallies, the dollar is weaker, gold rallies. When the dollar drops, well look at today. Dollar’s up, nothing but it’s up. It’s been up in general and gold’s higher. So we have their trade recommendation and we really can’t share publicly even though it’s not rocket science what they’re doing. But you know we, we want to make sure that it’s disseminated anyway. We have a trade recommendation and their own desks position at bottom we will describe and put it into context for subscribers in premium news analysis.

There is the, there’s our breakdown of the FT report. Gold shipments to us strain London’s bullion market. There’s our write up of the Reuters report. LBMA scrambles for gold. Okay silver EFPs and Trump tariff risk. That’s a report that we went through about oh seven or eight days ago and we had that for premium. We unlocked most of it for free subscribers simply because while it’s what’s going on now, we think everyone should be informed a little bit more. Fed freaks on inflation Trump presser. Now that was our reporting on what happened on the Fed Open Market Committee and Basically everyone expected a dovish pause, but they got a very hawkish sounding pause and he tried to backpedal on the hawkish sounding pause, but I’m not so sure that’s going to happen.

Trump reacts to Powell’s policy decision. If you’re familiar, Trump has been here, let me open this up because there’s a video in there for him. I want to show that again. In his truth statement. In his truth, was it true, True social account. Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with inflation. I will try to do it. I will do it by unleashing American energy production, slashing regulation, rebalancing international trade and reigniting American manufacturing. That’s great. That’s cool. That’s. He was going to do that anyway, but now he’s basically saying, I’m going to do it more.

He has to do it. We need cheaper energy if Powell cut rates. So if Powell won’t do what he needs done, then he’s going to do what he’s going to have to do with the fiscal side even more. But it will do much more than stop inflation. It will make our country financially and otherwise powerful again. This is some good statements in there. The Fed has done a terrible job on bank regulation. Treasury is going to lead the effort to cut unnecessary regulation and will unleash lending for all American people, businesses. That’s what Yellen did. That’s what Biden did.

The difference is if you’re pro Trump and I’m certainly not anti Trump, the difference is Trump’s going to change regulations to benefit business so we can grow ourselves out of this. We can get out of services and go into what, manufacturing. If the Fed had. I love this stuff. If the Fed had spent less time on dei, gender ideology, green energy and fake climate change, inflation would never have been a problem. That’s such an important point, I think, because starting with Yellen and probably back as far as Bernanke, they claim they’re not captured by pol. Politicians yet.

All this stuff, as important as it may be societally down the road to discuss it, is not something the Fed should be wasting their fucking time on. And yet they talked about it all the time, pandering to the press that serves the leftist ideology. So don’t tell me you’re not captured by politicians. Instead, we suffer from the worst inflation in the history of our country. Okay? The hyperbole of that statement does not, does not undermine the truth of it. It’s definitely the history of our country for the last 40 years, that’s for sure. And there’s that comment.

Anyway, great stuff. He’s doing what he has to do. Data on deck fomc GDP pce. Today’s Thursday. GDP looks like it may be out right now. So gold is stable. No real effect by GDP as of yet. Let’s see what happens. All right, Premium BNP buys the gold. Stay with us. And we’re going to go through that with you in more detail. Now, quick look at the chart. Keeping it simple. Gold’s going to make a new all time high pretty soon. I, I’m surprised that it would happen this week after the news a couple days ago, but there you have it.

I think gold’s going to make a new all time high. If it gets above this high, that high won’t matter. Silver, Silver. Wait, let me, let me pull up the chart. That’s really cool about silver because I was focused on that this morning. Right? The moving average dance. Remember the moving average dance? Below the 200. Below the 200. Below the 200. Well, in two days, in one day we got above it and we ran to the 100. That’s pretty cool. Okay, I, look, I’m long, right? So my opinion is based on my position, I’m biased, but I believe silver is going to head to 32 and change in spot.

And if it doesn’t happen in the next 48 hours. It could happen. It will, it will happen next week. If Trump imposes tariffs in any uncertain sort of way, if he imposes them uncertainly, like meaning we’re going to do it, we’ll talk about it later how we’re going to do it, but we’re doing it like as of tomorrow, this is going to happen, well, people are going to panic and silver is going to go to 32, 90, 33. But if he comes out and says we’re going to implement pet tariffs and certain key industries will be carved out.

For now, like, you might see volatility, but silver might not rally. The market’s reaction after Trump speaks on Saturday or makes a comment on Saturday will be a key reaction. Meaning if the market rallies on Trump’s comment, I wouldn’t be a seller. If the market dips on Trump’s comment, I wouldn’t be a buyer on the news. If you want to use your levels or your tentacles, that’s fine. Okay, where were we? 10 year yields. I’m long bonds doesn’t say anything right now, though. Gold, silver is, was what I want to look at. That’s what I want to look at Gold Silver has been very painful to look at.

But put up my old. That’s the good news. Speaking to indirectly to Michael Oliver here, here’s the channel more or less that he drew. I’ve had this channel as well, but his is inverted. It goes down and here we are again hugging this line. So maybe, maybe the market wants to go up on this line, you know, in this adhering to this channel. Like I could stretch the channel a little bit and say this is the channel now. You know, you could do that. You can lie to yourself. But I think really the channel is less important than it was.

I think what matters now is that, and if we get back into this area, I think it runs down to 79. That’s my opinion. I’m Vince. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching.
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