Bullion Bank Reiterates $3000 Call For Gold | Arcadia Economics

Gold is now being bought at night in China and in Europe and by Americans during those time zones in anticipation of American buying. OK, so this is now a global demand market for gold and starting to happen in silver as well. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now here is Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. Today’s market rundown. We will be discussing bank commodity flow analysis, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, even uranium. We will also be discussing or going over the upcoming Bretton Woods meeting in Kazan, Russia.

You can look at the homepage where I go through the markets. The dollar is down six at one hundred spot eighty five ten year three seventy seven down one S&P five hundred fifty seven sixty eight up forty two. The VIX is fifteen twenty down twenty basis points, gold on the highs twenty six seventy seven up twenty one and change. Silver also on the highs of the evening of the morning thirty two fifty five above the levels. That we said we’d be above not gone would copper for fifty five up to and change. Percent wise, gold and silver is now starting to crack lower.

WTI cannot get out of its own way. Sixty eight eighty nine natural gas to fifty seven of three cents. Bitcoin and Ethereum are now moving with gold and equities. So it’s Bitcoin’s turn to catch up to gold as long as stocks continue to go up. Palladium up two and a half percent at twenty five dollars one of sixty six and platinum ten sixteen twenty seven dollars. The whole world is inflating. Grains. Mixed soy is up five cents, wheat is up two cents and corn is unchanged. OK, you’re looking at three charts there. Gold is now being bought at night in China and in Europe and buy Americans during those time zones in anticipation of American buying.

OK, so this is now a global demand market for gold and starting to happen in silver as well. Silver is going to be a disaster for anyone who shorted and there are people still shorted. All right, let’s get to the we have a lot to cover and I’m not going to be able to cover it all in this show. So we’re going to give you an idea what’s coming up tomorrow. Bank commodity flow analysis Citibank puts out probably the most useful graphs in any CTA report that we’ve seen. Here’s here’s we and we have that we have some excerpts for you at the bottom as well.

The Fed delivered a 50 basis point cut and highlighted its dual mandate as policymakers led by Chair Powell shift their focus from inflationary pressures to a loosening U.S. labor market. In anticipation, our quarterly report highlighted key conviction views across commodity sectors, including bullish precious metals outright and or versus energy and a rebound in copper as further fed cuts manifest into the year end. We focused on nickel tin iron or cocoa and row crops. They also put in some nice trucks on palladium and I think uranium. I’ve been watching uranium last couple of days for the COT week ending September 17th commodity index ETF data show inflows of two point six eight billion bringing year to date inflows to thirty eight point two billion.

Now, this continues at the bottom and we will be doing a breakdown on what this all means for swap dealer risk for the last couple months for the last forever. People have been discussing more frequently the swap dealer short position. Not only are we going to share key excerpts from this report with you today, but tomorrow we hope to put it to bed. Once and for all, you never do, but you try the role of swap dealers in precious metals markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. They’re not all the same role wise. What they do, why they do it, what it means, and frankly, for gold, that means they are not happy.

And for silver, it means they are potentially going to be much less happy soon. We will go through that in detail tomorrow in a written report with perhaps a podcast associated with it. For now, here’s a nice little chart. This is a Citibank COMEX gold chart comparing money managers to producers and users on the left and other reportables to swap dealers. If you’re a geek who’s into this stuff, I’m going to say this to you right now. As great as this chart is, it’s not the appropriate combination to see what’s really going on. You want to see money managers versus swap dealers because money managers buy from swap dealers.

Other reportables are a different animal altogether. They’re very important, but they’re not as pronounced in their behavior. So you want to see money managers and swap dealers. They match up like bookies and gamblers. You also want to see, in another chart that they’re not going to show, but I’m going to show, you also want to see the two blue lines together. You want to see producers and end users versus swap dealers. Because whatever the producers aren’t selling, the swap dealers have to, have to. Obligated to sell when a customer calls to buy, have to. Now, there are ways they get around that, but they have to.

It’s their business model. Okay, so that’s it for now. Great. There’s a lot of charts in here about every commodity out there, and we strongly encourage you to take a look at the bottom. And even if it’s a little bit wonky for your taste, we’re going to give you the story, the truth about what swap dealers do in every market. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, they have different roles in different markets. Their role in gold and silver is very black and white. And right now they’re red as opposed to green. All right. Next news and analysis. Pepe Escobar put a story out yesterday that people are interested in.

And it’s basically, he says, will bricks, Bretton Woods take place in Kazan? Now, for those of you that are frequent viewers of this or readers of the things that we read or readers of the things that we put out, almost none of this will be news to you. It is significant for multiple reasons. Number one, he’s not writing this for you. He’s writing this for everyone who doesn’t know yet. And you know who doesn’t know yet? The mainstream media. The mainstream media will pick up on this now that he’s written it, because Pepe is the bridge from the east to the west.

Second thing, the timing of it tells you that there’s going to be more rhetoric coming out. So it’s a very good story. We suggest you read it. We have that unlocked as is a public facing story. And his question is, will Bretton Woods three take place in Russia? I don’t know. Depends on how you define it. What’s the name of the hotel? They’ll be staying out. Maybe it’s the Kazan Woods three. Who knows? But rest assured that they are progressing down the road. It’s a very well written article, as Pepe normally does. You may know most of it, but if you’re not fully initiated or obsessed with this, like we all are, you want to read that because it will give you everything you need to know in one place.

This also came out yesterday. CTA levels, very long medals, very short. Or that’s also from a bank that starts with the letter C. And we put that out late in the day yesterday. And we have Wednesday PM notes. Moving on. Market news. Open AI is in it for the money. Surprise. Meta Zuckerberg’s presentation was as better than anything Apple has done in the last five years. Cringe, cheesy, however you want to call it, fake, whatever he is, lizard boy, whatever you want to call him. It was a good presentation. And they’re on to something now. And the guy doesn’t quit, right? Micron technology forecasts first quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday.

Again, that’s a chip. Google said it is filed a formal complaint against Microsoft. That’s internal wars. Who cares? Oh, this is key. Applications to refinance a home search 20% last week compared with the previous week. That’s inflation. They lowered rates. People who are borrowing at higher rates, people who bought over the last year or two, are going to refinance. And in refinancing, the demand for houses is going to go up. Because if mortgage rates are lower and people refinancing, then mortgages are also more affordable for people to buy. So there’s nothing not inflationary about what Pal did.

Given the choice, this is like this is this is the rule. Given the choice for the government and by proxy the Fed between stagflation and inflation when recession is not an option, meaning they’re not allowed to even have a recession, they’re not OK. They’re not allowed to let that word go into the headline. Given the choice between stagflation and inflation, and that has been the choice going back to what Zoltan Pal said, recession was not an option. He said that two years ago. Right. Given that choice, the government will always opt for inflation. Always. Stagflation is a very bad thing.

Stagflation is economy going down and things in price going up. But if things in price are going up while stocks continue to go up, then they’re OK with that. Inflation is OK because you can redirect people to what is going well. What problem comes is when the stock market crashes and gold goes up another three hundred five hundred dollars. And they don’t care about that because they’re looking at the next election. Anyway, always choose inflation over stagflation. That’s what happened in the 70s. And they kept choosing inflation over stagflation until Volcker came in and said, all right, we’re going to have to deal with some stagflation here.

Let’s make it hurt. Let’s make it happen quickly. Anyway, all that from applications to refinance a home loan moving on to your politics. Politics. There are so many news items. I put news in parentheses coming out about the Middle East and Ukraine now that I’m putting it in small print and I’m putting it up there. I’m not even reading them outside of the first three words. Why? Because there’s now a whole industry around these wars devoted to giving you news. It’s not news. It’s people talking and spending. There is news in there and it’s hard to see, but, you know, it’s a lot of bullshit, frankly, like data on deck revisionist GDP is on deck.

Today is GDP. Everyone speaks. So this is what the market thinks GDP will come in strong or not. We don’t care. The revisionist GDP will be lower. If the revised GDP, which is now the focus, pathetically, if GDP is revised lower, then that’s good for stocks. If the fact that the current administration in power has been lying or condoning lying about data, that’s bullish for stocks. I’ll tell you, this is going to end very ugly. I don’t know when, but it’s going to end very, very ugly. All right. Quick back to the markets. There you go.

New all time. Is that new all time? Oh, my God. I keep thinking that we’re at $50 already freaking out. All right. Silver is trading at 3270 above the area, patting myself on the back. I told you, you know, if it gets above this area, if it gets above this area, that area doesn’t matter. And it didn’t. Okay. Silver and gold are being driven. If you’re wondering what’s going on, silver and gold are being driven by now being driven by macro discretionary funds who are buying but less. CTAs who are buying and more and American retail investors that are starting to come in and pay attention despite the lack of headlines.

Okay. One thing about CTAs, historically, we will say to you, CTAs are lemmings. CTAs are wildebeest. CTAs lose money. But if you listen, go back, say April 22, CTAs make money in trending markets. They just ride things forever and then they become pigs and they never take their profits. But that’s what CTAs do. With regards to CTAs and seasonality, CTAs are exempt from seasonality. They do not sell during sell season. Why? Because they look at the calendar year and they don’t end their year in November. There has been selling in sell season. Macro discretionary has been selling and it’s just been vacuumed up, hovered up.

CTAs aren’t really piling in. CTAs will, like a normal human being, look to close risk in December as we approach the end of the year. They’re very much retail oriented. So if you’re going to see selling by CTAs, who by the way, they’re long since 2490, they’re very profitable. If you’re going to see selling by CTAs, you’re going to see it probably the day after the election and then after that in mid-December. Just be aware of that. CTAs do not determine seasonality. CTAs are the saps during seasonality. So, excuse my French, my French, whatever you want to call that.

Squeak, CTAs are going to keep buying until somebody stops them out. And I don’t really think the bank dealers have the bullets to stop them out. What do you want to say? Eight and nine ignores it. Eight and nine ignores it. Eight and nine does it. See, they started ignoring eight and nines. Ignored, ignored, honored, ignored, ignored, ignored. Eight and nines are signs of overbought when you’re looking at the top-to-market stuff. All right, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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