➡ Raf from NGA Investor discusses the gold market, highlighting potential significant events on September 15th. He compares the current gold market to the 2001-2011 period, suggesting a similar pattern but with a faster pace due to increased monetary fuel. He also mentions Newmont, a gold stock, finally showing positive performance. Lastly, he discusses the COMEX gold market, suggesting that big traders are using price dips to accumulate physical gold in the form of warrants.
➡ The repo market, where short-term loans are exchanged for government securities, is trading over $2.7 trillion nightly. The Treasury Department is cautiously raising money to avoid disrupting this market. There’s a risk of increased funding pressures in September, as the Treasury will need to raise more money, potentially causing a spike in rates. This situation is similar to what happened in September 2019, but with twice as much bank reserves involved.
➡ The stock for Newmont, a gold company, is expected to rise as it has broken a trend line established between 2022 and 2024. This suggests a positive long-term outlook. The information was shared in a weekly gold and silver report, which also mentioned a 10% discount for storing gold and silver at a specific location using a coupon code. The report will continue next week.

Art’s teacher is named Krip Appel? I’ve been calling her Crandall! Why didn’t someone tell me? Oh, I’ve been making an idiot out of myself! 47 million dollars? 47 million dollars! Whoever is taking advantage of these little dips in price is using them to accumulate gold warrants on the COMEX. So what is the key that’s going to happen on September 15th? Hey guys, Raf here from the NREL. Well, hello there, my friends. Raf here from the NGA investor with this week’s silver report. And this week we’re going to focus on gold. There’s some really interesting things that are going on specifically in the gold market.

And we’re going to talk about the plumbing again because Bloomberg in an article has basically admitted, not even between the lines, in the lines themselves, that there is a potential X date or a potential date for the actual apocalypse. And they give a date for that and they explain why. We’re going to go into the problems with the article, why they’re picking that date. The date is actually September 15th. Spoil alert September 15th. Oh, let’s not spoil it! Oh, let’s not! Oh, I got that. Ow! I don’t know if that’s going to be the date for an apocalypse, but the fact that Bloomberg is admitting that it is a possibility and that it is very close to the previous apocalypse date of September 17th, 2019, shows that yeah, it’s possible we could have the date for the next round of QE beginning, which would be September 15th, 2025.

Beyond that, we’re going to talk about the similarities now between the previous gold market of 2001 to 2011 relative to S&P, and what is happening now. It looks like we’re retracing some of the gains relative to the S&P gold to S&P 500 ratio, but we are firmly above the 50-week moving average, which is what happened basically in the 2001 to 2011 gold bull market. And we seem to be on a repeat trajectory, except everything is going to happen faster this time because there’s so much more monetary fuel in the system.

And finally, for the first time in years, Newmont, the worst performing gold stock, probably ever maybe, or the biggest one too, the most disappointing, is finally breaking out up I think 6% today on an earnings beat, an impressive one, but one that shouldn’t be surprising given gold’s price. And if Newmont is breaking out, the rest of the gold mining complex should follow or already has been. If Newmont can catch up, you got everything running on all cylinders, except for Barrick. We’ll see what happens with Barrick. But anyway, onto this week’s silver report, really gold report, brought to you by Silver 47.

Silver 47 symbol AAGAF in the U.S. symbol AGA in Canada continues to move with the silver price up and down with its silver price, more or less. So this could be seen as currently a proxy for silver goes a little bit more volatile and silver itself, of course, because it’s a silver explorer. You can see here that it has been moving up with silver and slightly down as the wobbles continue here. Same thing in April down here when we had that big little, that big little, this micro silver crash back in that month, and it continues to go on its merry way.

If we look into a specific page of its investor presentation, we can see here that the valuation of the company per silver ounce in the ground is estimated to be about 32 cents. This is relative to its peers, BlackRock, Argenta, Silver, Outcrop Silver, and Dolly Varden, Dolly Varden, which I also own. So here we can see that the price of silver per ounce in the ground for silver 47 is significantly lower. And that’s probably because it is at an earlier stage of exploration and development. So if you want silver in the ground really cheap and you are willing to take the risk of a silver explorer like silver 47, then this could be an interesting pick for you.

For those who might be interested in owning this company, I have an interview with the CEO coming out next week on the channel. Okay. So something specific is going on in gold, in the gold market relative to the COMEX. You can see here that I highlighted four delivery days. These are the delivery totals for gold this month for the July contract. So you can see here that these are the four biggest delivery days outside of first notice. I took out these first four days because that’s when there’s a big front loading of deliveries from the previous month, from previous month’s longs.

So these, when you’re moving to the middle of month, usually signify traders that are buying spot contracts in the spot month and taking immediate delivery on them. That’s why there’s these elevations in these specific days. You can see that’s exactly what happened here on July 24th. These are the numbers for July 24th, the last data that we have available. You can see here that in the spot contract, we had an increase of 1,072 contracts. That means that all of those 1,072 contracts are being bought within the delivery window. So whoever goes along those contracts is doing it for delivery, or at least they’re risking it because they can be called to get delivery at any day.

And you can see here that there was a huge spike in deliveries on July 24th. These data, this data is always one day behind this data that deliveries happen in the reflected here on the day before. So you can see 962 deliveries. So why am I highlighting all these? Because if you see, we have the dates, July 8th, July 14th, July 17th, and July 24th, the four biggest delivery days outside of the delivery window for the previous month up here. And you have this. I took these little rectangles of these are the four days of the four biggest deliveries.

You can see the top four delivery days for gold in July were all serious down days for gold itself. So we’re seeing on big down days in the gold price or relatively big down days in the gold price, we’re seeing huge spikes in deliveries. So whoever is taking advantage of these little dips in prices, using them to accumulate gold warrants on the COMEX. So warrants are going to be held for a while. These are strong hands that are getting warrants to hold the gold itself. I don’t think they’re loading out of the COMEX specifically, but they are holding onto the warrants, which tagged themselves to one 100 ounce gold bar each.

Basically what I’m saying is that some traders, big traders are using the down takes to accumulate physical gold in the form of warrants. Now we’re going to get into the plumbing here. Cause this is really interesting. These are excerpts from a Bloomberg article published yesterday by Alex Harris. She’s the main plumbing correspondent that I follow on Bloomberg. She writes the most interesting articles in my opinion. It says here, the risk of tighter money sparks debate over the fed funds rate. We’re going to read this whole thing. These are excerpts and I’ll explain the paragraphs as I read them.

Funding turbulence is in common. It occurred last in 2019 talking about the September 2019 re-pocalypse when repo rates went above 10% in some instances. When the fed quickly reduced its balance sheet to just under 1.5 trillion, that’s actually a mistake, a typo or an error of hers. She means 1.5 trillion in bank reserves, not 1.5 trillion total. But anyway, unknown to policy makers, bank reserves had grown scarce leading the feds move combined with treasury auction settlements and anticipated corporate tax payments to cause a surge in a key lending rate, many key lending rates actually, as well as fed funds, forcing officials to intervene.

That was their apocalypse. That’s when QE restarted and eventually led to the COVID printing, which was either caused by the COVID lockdowns or it was planned. I don’t know the answer to that. And I don’t think anybody ever will. Just like Epstein, whatever. This time around bank reserves stand at an ample 3.38 trillion. Now here’s her first mistake or second mistake. The, the fact that it’s, she says ample and because they seem to be more than twice the amount of bank reserves from the last apocalypse, that would make you think that they are actually ample and there’s plenty of room here, but there isn’t because most of that 3.38 trillion is being used to trade the basis trade in futures on us treasuries.

They’re all being tied up in that because that’s free money for the banks and they keep doing it over and over and over again, leveraged about 50 times. According to some estimates, that means they borrow the repo money by pawning off treasury securities. And then they have that repo money to buy more treasury securities and pawn them off for more repo, et cetera, et cetera, 50 times over. And that’s how they make their free money. But anyway, we continue here. Fed governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month, they could be allowed to fall.

I mean, bankers, yours could be allowed to fall to 2.7 trillion. We went over last week. I’ll put a card here in the corner in last week’s silver report that that is ridiculous because the amount of money that’s being traded in the repo market is more than $2.7 trillion a night and continues to be above that level. So it can’t fall to 2.7 trillion. That’s crazy. For strategist at bank of America, we continue. There’s still a risk of increased funding pressures in September. Now, the treasury department is targeting a slower rebuild of its cash balance.

So what he’s saying here is that the treasury is raising money, raising debt or selling debt slower than they otherwise would, because they don’t want to cause a clog in the repo market. And we have seen that despite the rise in the national debt, there hasn’t been no significant rise in the cash balance at the treasury, which means they’re being very careful in sucking money out of bank reserves to spend on whatever it is they spend it on. Next paragraph. They said in a recent report that the risk arises because usage of the reverse repo facility, a barometer of excess liquidity, which we cover here often, is expected to be close to zero by then.

So by September, it will be zero. Why will it be zero? Because the treasury has to raise money since the debt ceiling was raised and it raises money primarily by sucking it out of the reverse repo facility. And they do that by replacing reverse repo cash with treasuries that are sold to money market funds. And they give the treasury cash, which they spend on government spending, whatever. So what is the key that’s going to happen on September 15th, right? It is expected to be close to zero by then. We continue with tax payments on the 15th, being the 15th of September of the month, September and coupon auction settlements, which means that treasury auctions that settle on that date will drain more liquidity.

The same conditions that we saw on September 17th, 2019, except this time was twice as much bank reserves, but all of which are being used in the repo market. And if the repo market and the treasury are fighting over the same dollars, the treasury will win and rates will spike. Last week’s fed minutes also acknowledged expected outflows. Final paragraph. Now this might seem technical, but I’ll make it really simple. To be sure, Wrightson’s Crandall, Crandall, Crandall, why didn’t someone tell me? Oh, I’ve been making an idiot out of myself, said that while it’s unlikely that future declines in reserves, bank reserves will have a material impact on the fed funds rate.

It can’t be ruled out that the rate starts to creep up within the current range. Now here he’s talking about Crandall’s talking about something that’s completely irrelevant. He’s talking about the federal funds rate that the rate that the fed directly controls, which is barely traded anymore. It’s like a hundred billion dollars a day, which is nothing compared to the SOFR, which is the repo rate, which is like closer to three trillion dollars a day, which is like one thirtieth the size, the fed funds rate. But anyway, Crandall has argued that the tri-party general collateral rate or the TGCR and another repo benchmark overseen by the New York Fed would be an ideal fed funds replacement, as that is where financial institutions really lend cash.

He’s saying the TGCR and this other rate are much better at gauging tightness in the monetary system. And he’s right because of this. We can see here, this is the effective federal funds rate versus the SOFR rate, the secure overnight financing rate, the rate that I follow very closely to determine when the next apocalypse is going to happen with the next monetary tightness event or crash or whatever it’s going to be. You can see here that the line, the blue line here is the effective federal funds rate. That’s what the fed directly controls.

But here is the SOFR overlaid on it. Usually it’s right around the same rate. But you can see here, this was their apocalypse when these dots went up significantly and the fed funds rate did not because most of the money being traded is in the SOFR market and not the fed funds overnight market. And here is the basic math. The rate that this guy, Crandall says that he wants to follow is the TGCR, but basically the SOFR is the TGCR plus the BGCR. Don’t worry about what all these stupid things mean. They’re just different forms of overnight rates, collateralized by treasuries.

And the SOFR is all of them together, which is why I follow that. And now we have this article in Bloomberg where some officials are considering maybe following a different number because the fed funds rate is so irrelevant. While I follow that number, I have noted, and I put this almost in every silver report, which is really the gold report this week, that this is the amount of bankers being used in the SOFR market by proportion. We’re still above 80% and we can expect this number to spike possibly to 90% or higher on the month turn, which is going to happen next week.

It’s now July 25th. So in seven days, it will be August 1st or August 2nd. And that is going to be the monthly turn. And we always see a spike in the ratio here. The last apocalypse happened around here at 83%. We are right at that level now. And the next spike, it might be cleared up. But once we get to the 15th, which is what the Bloomberg article was talking about, we could see finally the last apocalypse. Now, I just wanted to go a little bit into the current nature of the bull market relative, the gold bull market relative to the S&P 500.

We can see that we had a spike in gold prices relative to the S&P 500 to about 0.64. Now we have retraced to about 0.53, but we’re still comfortably above the 50-week moving average. Now, what I think is going to happen, I think we’re going to stay around the 50-week moving average maybe for a while, maybe for a few days, maybe a week or two. And then we’re going to head up again higher. So why do I say that? Because this is the previous gold bull market, gold relative to the S&P 500.

You can see this was the nature of it. It started in 2001 and gold started to move higher relative to the S&P 500. And then it stayed around that level for about two, two and a half, three years. That’s not going to be that long this time. We’re going at a much faster pace. And then it climbed again in 2006 and flirted with the 50-week moving average again in 2006, 2007. Another move up here touched the 50-week moving average, a huge move up into the 2008 financial crisis. And then it danced around the 50-week moving average again twice before moving up in the final move of the bull market into 2011.

So going back to this chart, I think this is the beginning of this bull market relative to the S&P 500 or the big move part of it. So we have the first move here. We’re going to go back somewhere near the 50-week moving average and then move up again. And we’re not going to be able to time these little waves. So I just keep accumulating and stacking anyway. Finally, I wanted to talk about Newmont in the context of the gold to the Huey ratio. The Huey is an index of gold mining stocks.

We can see here that the lower this ratio goes, the higher gold stocks are priced relative to gold. So the higher this is, the worse gold stocks are doing relative to gold. So we want this to go lower. And we see here that we are below the 50-week and the 200 moving average. We’re still nowhere near where we were in 2012, which was around below three. Now we’re at 7.65. So if we get back to this number in 2012 at the end of the last bull market, which I expect that we will, we’re going to see gold stocks triple relative to gold.

And we see this starting to happen in Newmont. Newmont had a huge day, up 6% today because of an earnings beat. But we see here that we were down to about 25 in 2022. And now we’re up to 51. This is again the ratio relative to gold. So the lower it goes, the higher Newmont is priced relative to gold. So basically, Newmont could double relative to the gold price from here. It would still be at this number in 2022. That is not that long ago and the market has not changed so fundamentally since then.

I think we’re going to head into that around that number. So we’re going to see Newmont continue to outperform here. I think it might finally be breaking loose and it has been horrible for many years. If you zoom into the gold to Newmont ratio here, we can see that on a long-term, actually a yearly basis going back to 2022. This was when we were at 2025 at the high here, when I think the stock was at 74 and gold is much higher than it was back then. So we’re going to see big moves in the stock.

I think we’re here below the trend line, which is good because the lower this ratio goes, the higher Newmont is relative to gold. We’ve finally broken this trend line, which was established in 2022 and 2024. We should be on our way down and long-term or however long-term is before the end game actually hits, which might not be so long actually. If we’re talking about September 15th as the beginning of the final sprint. But anyway, it’s been a long gold report, silver report this week. It has been brought to you by silver.

You can also stack your gold and silver at miles Franklin at the link in the description below and store your gold and silver at a dirty man’s safe. Just don’t tell anybody by using the coupon code and game 10 at checkout for 10%. I’ll check the link in the description below. Thanks everyone for watching and I’ll see you guys next week. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.