➡ Based on historical data and current growth rates, Bitcoin’s value could range from $600,000 to $1.4 million by 2030. However, with the rapid growth of stablecoins, this target could be reached by 2027 or even earlier. This prediction is not a guess, but a mathematical analysis based on government policies and market trends. The future of Bitcoin seems promising, especially with regulatory clarity, which could push the value even higher.

I did the math on exactly how high Bitcoin goes under Trump’s new $3.7 trillion stablecoin plan. Now, using the same correlation models that we use inside our fund, I’ve identified three distinct scenarios. And even the most conservative projection is going to shock you. Because when you see and apply these proven mathematical relationships to Treasury Secretary Besant’s official target, we’re looking at price levels that will either make you generational wealthy or scratching your head wondering what’s happening. Now, I’ve been building and selling tech companies for decades. I’m a partner at a leading Bitcoin venture fund.

I’m an officer of a publicly traded Bitcoin company. Now, this is the same mathematical analysis that we use internally to make million dollar investment decisions. And now I’m sharing it with you. So let’s go. All right, so we’re jumping right in. And this is going to be a really fun video because we’re going to look at Bitcoin’s future potential price, but we use data. We use analysis. This isn’t gut checks. This isn’t guesses. Now, I do want to say real quickly that this is part two of a video. So you may want to go back and watch part one.

We’ll link to it down below. But it’s about the new Genius Act, which is the stablecoin bill that just got passed in the Trump administration. You have to understand the framework of this to understand. So you might want to go watch it, but let me give you the cliff notes. In part one, we talked about how the Trump plan, the Trump agenda, needs stablecoins and it needs Bitcoin. In order to succeed, to maintain dollar dominance and get the inflation and growth, they need Bitcoin. The Genius plan could convert up to 3.5 trillion in sterilized reserve sitting in the banks and could send them out into the marketplace to get the inflation and growth.

But if we get the growth, then we get inflation. If we get inflation, that’s bad. So we need a release valve. Where does that go? It goes into Bitcoin. All right. So you have to go back and watch that video to understand all this with facts and data. And where does this push Bitcoin? Now, there’s a bunch of ways. Now, most people go, it’s too late. I missed Bitcoin. I should have bought it a long time ago. They think about it in the past. But the interesting thing is when you buy stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, whatever the mag seven, you’re thinking about the potential future valuation, right? So how much will Tesla or Apple or Facebook be in the future? So the question is, well, what will Bitcoin be worth in the future? We can look at it from a bunch of angles and I’ll link to some other ways to look at it in the end down below from a venture capital frame.

We can look at it through technical analysis. We can look at it through on-chain data. But today we’re going to look at it through the frame of this bill, stablecoins and Bitcoin. All right. So we want to look at stablecoins. These are US dollar stablecoins. For those that don’t know what they are, you give someone a dollar, they give you a token back that represents the dollar. All right. There’s been five distinct eras since about 2014. And we want to look at that so we can use that to extrapolate a future value. Five distinct correlation periods.

Each one of them telling us a different story, the correlation of how stablecoins relate to Bitcoin. A lot of people in the early days thought Tether was creating dollars and pumping up Bitcoin artificially. That’s not the case. But there is a correlation. So in 2019, there was the pre-DeFi era. So that was sort of just crypto. There was a race for layer ones that was Ethereum and Cardano and all those other ones popped up pre-DeFi. Then in 2020, we had DeFi summer. So this is when everybody was trying to earn yield and lend and things like that.

2021 was then the institutional entry. We saw the institutions first starting to come in. 2022 was the post-crash of Bitcoin price rolled over, right? We had $69,000, went all the way down to about $16,000, $17,000. And then in 2023, 2025, we’ve been in the ETF era. Now, again, like I said, stablecoins have been around a long time. I want to show you the growth real quickly. They started in about 2014. And of course, there was zero dollars in the beginning in stablecoins. It was actually Tether, which is the largest one has about 75% of market share today.

It started as a real coin. And then it rebranded as Tether. Okay, by 2017, so three years later, the assets under management were small, millions of dollars. Then we had September 2018, there was about 2.8 billion in there. By 2024 had grown to 118 billion. And now today, 2025, about 163 billion, just in Tether alone. All right, it’s about 250 billion in the entire space overall. So just so you can understand that. All right. Now, the data that we want to analyze is looking at the growth of stablecoins, not just Tether, but the entire stablecoin basket.

And how this correlates to Bitcoin specifically, because the Trump administration going back to that video told us Scott Bassett, the head of the US Treasury, whose job is to sell Treasuries told us that he expects the stablecoin market to grow by 3.7 trillion by 2030. Now again, you need to go watch that whole video if you want the whole framework, but 3.7 trillion by 2030. So looking at historical correlations, if the stablecoin market was 3.7 trillion, where would that push Bitcoin? That’s what we’re looking at here. So in the pre-DeFi era 2019, the stablecoin multiple was 1.0, a Bitcoin multiple was 1.0, and the Bitcoin stable ratio was 1.0.

But it changed. By 2020, the stablecoin multiple was 5.0, Bitcoin was 4.0, and the ratio was 0.81. We’re going to be using these to extrapolate the future value. Institutional entry around 2021. Now we had a 7.0 stablecoin multiple, a lower 2.4 Bitcoin multiple, and a lower stablecoin ratio of only 0.34. Remember that number. Post-recovery crashed when Bitcoin fell from 69,000 down to about 16,000, 3.0 stablecoin multiple, 1.5 Bitcoin multiple, and a 0.50 starting to pick up a little bit. And since the ETFs have come on board in the last couple of years, the Bitcoin Treasury companies of course are doing massive amounts of buying, we’re seeing the stablecoin multiple go down 2.1, Bitcoin multiple went up a little bit 2.8, but we have the highest Bitcoin stablecoin ratio.

So there’s a range here. You can see the direction. It’s gotten higher. We’re at the highest level. So we understand there’s a range and we can start to use that to think about where could the price of Bitcoin be as stablecoins grow. Now let’s take a look and understand just this pattern real quickly before we start to do math. We understand that the correlation between the two has been strengthening. It’s been going higher. We understand it goes higher during times of regulatory clarity. So as we’ve gotten further along, and we’ve gotten more institutional buying in, we’ve gotten more SEC clarity.

And now we have the acts of the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill. We have this genius act that just got passed. We have mass amounts of regulatory clarity. This creates lots of institutional adoption, heavy, heavy buying. And the genius act, which is what just got put through, just created all of this clarity. That’s what we’re trying to do is create the clarity around it. And so we should continue to expect it to strengthen because of those factors. Let’s understand now, where does this leave us into the future? Knowing again, that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told us that he projects 3.7 trillion dollars of stablecoins by 2030.

That’s a 14 times increase from there. So what we do is first of all, we understand this isn’t like a prediction. This is like policy. They passed bills to make this happen. It’s a government policy to make this happen, not just a guess. So I want to look at the bear case, the mid case, and the bull case. So going back to that data, we understand the lowest correlation was 0.34. That was the lowest one in 2021. That was when institutions just started coming in, and it was the weakest Bitcoin outperformance in that period.

The mid was 0.81. This was during 2020 DeFi summer, and that was historically robust liquidity driven averages. And the highest level that we had, back to the clarity, the regulatory clarity, was during this new ETF era, Bitcoin outpaced stablecoins, because we had the clarity, and now we have the big checks. Now we’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars coming into the market. Okay, so that was the range. So now what we want to do is put that onto the numbers. So we know that the current stablecoin assets under management today is about 250 billion, as I’ve already said.

We know that the projected AUM, where Scott Besant said it will go to, is 3.7, which is a 14.8 times multiple from here. And then today, at the time of this video recording, the Bitcoin price is about $118,000. Okay, so now we know the multiples, we know the ratios, we know the prices. So what does this mean for the future? This is the fun part. You ready for the drumroll here? And it doesn’t end here, so don’t leave after this. Okay, so in the bear case, based off of historical data, the lowest ratio of 0.34, a Bitcoin multiple of 5, puts Bitcoin at $593,540, about 600 grand by 2030.

Assuming that we hit that number of 3.7 trillion, as Scott Besant said, 600,000. Okay, in the base case, with the middle, which is a 0.83 ratio, or a 12.2 multiple, puts Bitcoin’s projected price at about 1.4, and the bull case 0.75, 11 times puts it at about 1.3. So between 600,000 to about 1.4 million is the range, based off of historical numbers, as well as where Scott Besant says that we would have the stablecoin growth. However, is that number accurate? So we want to take a look at it. So the timeline and the reality.

Now, Besant said, by the end of the decade, that’s 2030, about five years, four to five years. But stablecoins, after the Genus Act went through, since Trump’s been around, stablecoins have gone up already by 32% in just the last seven months. They’re growing at an astronomical rate right now. As a matter of fact, if we take a look at this chart, you can see it’s almost going parabolic. Here’s 2014. We had a pretty steep rise. It kind of leveled off, another steep rise, and look at where we’re going right now. We’re absolutely going parabolic.

And so we’ve gone up 32% in seven months. At this pace, the 3.7 trillion AUM will be achieved by 2027, not 2030. We don’t know the future. I’m sure Besant wants to overshoot his target, but at the current pace that we’re on right now, we’ll be there by 2027. And it looks like the pace is accelerating, not slowing down. It could even be less. Now remember, correlation is greater when there is regulatory clarity. So all of these bills and laws that are getting passed, as a matter of fact, they’re being passed specifically to give us clarity.

One of them is called that. I didn’t like it. And so when there’s clarity, there’s more correlation, which means this could actually go to the upside, meaning the 3.7 could be hit not in 2030, maybe in 2027, maybe sooner. And the correlation, the bear, the mid, and the bull case could be more towards the bull case because it’s a higher correlation during times of regulatory clarity. It’s just math. Now, what does all this mean? Well, I kind of gave that to you, but this isn’t me. This isn’t my making predictions here.

These are government stated policy goals. This is what they said is their plan. They passed laws for this specifically. This is a mathematical analysis. This isn’t like a guess. We’re looking at data to try to understand where this is going. And this trend is just beginning. It’s just getting started. The bill just got passed like a week ago. It’s not the end. It’s just beginning. And all the regulatory framework to make this happen was just passed. All right, so this is where we’re going. This is the future. I gave you the bull, the mid, the bear case.

I’d love to know what you think. But if you really want to understand this, you need to understand why the Trump administration want Bitcoin to go way higher than you can even imagine. So you probably want to watch this video right here. And if you want to know more indicators to sort of forecast Bitcoin’s price, then you probably want to watch this video right here. All right, I’ll see you over there. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.