➡ Chinese stocks are in a significant pattern, similar to a triangle, that suggests a big change is coming. Despite the potential for stocks to rise, they are not a safe option due to inflation. Gold, on the other hand, has been performing well but is overlooked as stocks are doing better. However, the trend suggests that gold and silver are likely to become more valuable, especially as we are at crisis levels of bank reserves, similar to those that triggered a previous bank bailout.

Well, hello there, my friends. Raf here from The Endgame Investor with this week’s silver report and it’s a new year and new things are going to be happening and old things are going to be happening too. New and old. Old and new. One is silver and the other is gold. Isn’t that what they say in Sesame Street or something like that? Make new friends but keep the old. One is silver and the other is gold. Hey, today we’re going to talk about the big plunge in bank reserves. Bank reserves, of course, are those extra dollars that are used in repo transactions every night, about 2.5 trillion as of the last recording, and there are only 2.9 trillion dollars or so in reserves left.

But this number is slightly artificial because it takes into account the very year-end turn day of January 1st, which is the last data that Worlds logged, and so we have a lot of those dollars being stuck into the reverse repo facility again so that bank’s balance sheets look as thin as possible for regulatory purposes. This is all a very stupid game. It’s like Candy Land but dumber. The name of the game is Candy Land. But anyway, we’re going to look at that plunge in reserves and we’re going to look at what was happening in the months prior to the regional bank crisis that was also triggered by the level of reserves falling below 3 trillion dollars.

We’ll see that. It took a few months from January to March to trigger that crisis. I think it will be a similar situation now. If we maintain these numbers of bank reserves, and there’s no reason that we shouldn’t because QT is ongoing, quantitative tightening is ongoing, and that is the shrinkage of the monetary base. The yuan, the Chinese yuan is at final support. We have a triple bottom here. If it breaks the support, there’s no something where the yuan will go and that will upset trade imbalances between the U.S. and China just in time for the Trump administration.

Chinese rates are plummeting like in 2008. It looks like an emergency situation there, monetarily speaking. Something big is happening in China and it’s not pretty. Chinese stocks are in a mega triangle. I’ll show it to you going all the way back to the peak in 2008. There are several ways to draw this triangle but we are coming to an apex very soon, very shortly, and when that happens, I think, I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, but these are big things. Gold to the S&P ratio has been stuck in a range for nine years and there needs to be a breakout soon.

This is what is going to break out gold versus stocks. When this ratio starts to head higher, people will abandon their bubble portfolios and go for real money as they see the dollars collapsing and the real value of their holdings, even if they’re going up and dollar terms are going down in purchasing power and then everyone will pile into real money at the same time and it’s not going to be good for most people. There is an enormous gold to S&P 500 ratio triangle going back all the way to the bottom in 2000 and we are coming at the apex of this triangle also in the next few months.

I’ll show you this chart as well. I’ll show you the most pathetic chart ever for gold and silver miners holders, for gold and silver stocks holders. It’s very sad. We’ve been at rock bottom for, what is it, like nine years now and it looks like we have a triple bottom attack. When this thing moves, it’s going to move hard and it’s going to move fast. I know it’s hard to believe, but logic does not expire and when the dollar does collapse, money stocks, money producing stocks, which are chiefly the gold and silver miners, they will be in heavy favor in a panic.

And finally, I’ll show you the silver chart where we have no follow through in the selling of silver despite breaking a triple bottom level, breaking triple bottom support. There should have been a lot of sell stops triggered. There were, which tells me that silver has hit a firm bottom and once we get back above 30, I don’t know if you will ever go back below it barring the final financial crisis, which we may head below it very briefly for a few days or a few weeks until the Fed kicks off its final printing round.

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That on with this week’s silver report. Here we have the week to week movement in bank reserves. We’re down to 2.9 trillion. You’ll see that in the next chart. But this chart, I want to show you, I’ve highlighted the four year end movements in the week average of bank reserves. The last week was January 1st, 2025. And we fell $151 billion in 2024. It was $183 billion in 2023 was $187 billion. And in 2020, it was $54 billion. So we’re sort of in the middle range here where we fell $151 billion in reserves.

And if we see the next chart, we’ll see where we are in total and relative relation to where we were during the regional banking crisis. So this is where we are in reserves. Now this plummet below, this was the regional banking crisis. This big lineup here is the regional bank bailout. That’s why reserves shot up over here. And then you had another big Renaissance, I guess, in reserves going into 2024. And they’ve been falling since April, 2024, when the debt ceiling was raised. We first hit this $3 trillion mark back in January, 2023.

The regional bank crisis hit in mid-March, 2023, so two and a half months later. So if that is a repeat, if that is going to repeat itself, and there’s no guarantee that it will, because I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen week to week. But if we’re looking at similar patterns here, then we have two, two and a half months until the next banking crisis is triggered. It’s going to be worse than the regional banking crisis. This time it’s going to be systemic, but we’ll see if the Fed pulls another rabbit out of tap.

Who knows? But we’re at the levels that we were in spare bank reserves that we had during the regional bank crisis. And it’s going to hit, something is going to hit again. The Yuan go to China is at final support. This is going back to 2008, actually. We have here the final support at about 735 Yuan per dollar. That has been hit, that has hit three times since 2022. We break this triple top. It’s really a triple bottom because the higher it goes here, the weaker the Yuan is. So we’ll call it a triple bottom, even though it’s a triple top.

So a triple bottom, if this is broken, there’s no telling where the Yuan will go. China has not really experienced the financial crisis so much yet. They were pretty insulated in 2008, except for maybe, what’s that place, Macau, where the gambling was. They still have their huge housing bubble to deal with all these ghost towns. They have a lot of crap deals over there and they haven’t dealt with any of it yet. So we’ll see where the Yuan goes and why is the Yuan going down, down, down. Because we have rates here in China that are going down to all-time record lows at 1.6.

And if you look at these monthly candles, these bars, this bar is as long as any bar that has ever existed in this market here for Chinese bonds, comparable to 2008, when they cut interest rates from about close to 5% to about 2.5%. They halved them and now we are at all-time lows. And they’re going to go to zero, just like the US did, just like the Fed did. And after that, they’re going to run out of room in their Keynesian toolbox. So we have here, Chinese stocks are in a mega triangle.

We see this has been the case since 2008. We had a huge top here at about 6,000 in the Shanghai Stock Composite Index. I’ve drew two triangles because this is not an exact science. You could draw triangles in many different ways. But generally speaking, we have the triangle pattern here. If you’re going to take the black line, then it touches here in the top in 2015. And it touches here in the top that was made just before the new year in late 2024. And over here, we have the triangle moving up. The bottom is moving up.

And if you want to take the red one, you can take the red one. Either way, we’re very close to an apex here. And once we get to that apex, something big is going to happen. I think these stocks are going to go down if they don’t print and they’re going to go up. If they do print, except the value of the one is going to be very low. Even if these stocks do go up, Chinese stocks are not a safe haven for inflation. In my nonprofessional opinion, gold to S and P ratio has been stuck for nine years in a trading range since 2016.

We can be generally say 2016, so that’s nine years. This is what is preventing most of the money from from charging into gold. They see that their stocks are doing better and they are because this ratio has been drifting down slowly for nine years. And as long as this ratio shifts down, stocks outperform gold. So it doesn’t matter how good gold does. If stocks are doing better, there’s no interest in it, which is the case now, even with gold at or near all time highs. We are an enormous gold triangle relative to the S and P.

So this is the S and P to gold S and P ratio going back to 2000. We see here we had this all time low. I think this is an all time low in 2000 with gold at 250 something. And we have this triangle that was tested in 2022 with the low there. It’s tested again in 2024. And we’ve had these highs going down since 2012. We have a very, very long sharp triangle here. When we break out of here, this is going to go way, way up and bubble assets, bubble stocks are going to be abandoned for real money.

And that is not going to be pretty. This is the most pathetic chart ever for gold and silver miner owners like myself. And yes, it’s frustrating. And I don’t deny that. And I understand that you watch people with these stock portfolios with these Netflix or Facebook or whatever stock they have, and it’s all part of the bubble economy and whatever. And it’s frustrating in Bitcoin and all those other stuff. But money stocks are going to have their day of vengeance. There is a triple bottom here that has formed from 2016 to 2018 to 2024.

I don’t think we’re going to break below it. And once this thing takes off, you’ll see in a previous post, I linked it to the bottom here in the description that once gold stocks take off, they take off hard. And I show some historical perspective and comparisons for when this is going to happen. And you can see that on the end game investor on sub stack link in the description below. Check it out. No downside follow through in silver. So we have here this line, this gray line shows a triple bottom in silver at around $30.

And it’s been tested three times in September. And we would have expected that once this broke through over here in late December and we broke through 30, we would have, we would have expected a lot of sell stops being triggered and a big volume in sales here, sales volume, selling volume rather. But we didn’t see that we see if I actually drop off. So I think once we regain this, that’s it. We have a marginal break of a triple bottom and then a reversal that is very bullish. The selling pressure in silver appears to be over.

And so the bottom line that I want to share from this video is that we are at crisis levels of bank reserves, the same levels that triggered the regional bank bailout. We’re going to have that again. Last time it took about two, two and a half months from when we reached this level to when the crisis was triggered. It’s probably going to be something similar now. And the fed isn’t going to do anything big until there is a big crisis to respond to, especially with Trump in office. And they want to make him look bad.

They’re not going to preempt anything. So this is Rafi of the in-game investor with this week’s silver report for the in-game investor. Once again, if you want to support this channel, do please purchase a dirty man safe for your own mental wellbeing in case the dollar collapses suddenly and you need immediate access to golden silver. That’s not an obvious safe that could get stolen very easily by anyone with a chainsaw or something like that or an ax. Well, 2025 read the year. I sure damn hope so. This is Rafi of the in-game investor and I’ll see you guys next week.

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.